I guess then why did Getz sign both Slater and Tauchman? Unless he is operating under the expectation that Robert will be gone. I wouldn't do it... But Getz has shown he would under certain circumstances imo.
I just get the feeling Getz will take the best offer he can get prior to the season beginning and cut his losses of risk of holding him until the deadline similar to Cease.
That just seems like a major overpay by the Reds. I would think Arroyo straight up is closer to reality, imo. Reds fans are more in line with your proposal though, which is good to see.