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Comparing the 2016 team at the ASB vs 2015


SoCalSox

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QUOTE (Jake @ Jul 11, 2016 -> 02:34 PM)
Big difference from last year's team: at the break last year, the Sox position players had a cumulative -3.1 WAR, by far the worst in the league. We also had a team 76 wRC+, worst in the league and by far worst in the AL. This year we're 26th in position player WAR, so it isn't as if we're setting the world on fire, but the bats are not so far from league average and the kind of leap necessary to push us into the playoffs isn't nearly as far-fetched. If Morneau is a 110 wRC+ bat at DH and Abreu returns to 2015 form (not an amazing year by any stretch) while everything else more or less holds steady, you're not far off right there. Have a couple things break our way and we're not unworthy.

Worth noting - they've improved from a -3.1 to a 4.9 position player fWAR, but they've declined from a 12.9 to a 10.0 pitching fWAR from first half of 2015 to 2016 as well.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 11, 2016 -> 07:02 PM)
7-26 is actually slightly better than winning 2 out of 10.

 

I will make you a wager the Sox go better than 7-26 vs. Cleveland, KC and Detroit the rest of the season.

The Sox will go 10-23 vs those teams the rest of the season. Maybe 9-24 but I'd say 10-23. That means "sell" in my book.

 

It's tough to say because of "meaningless" games late. Like I don't know who we play the final two weeks and if they are eliminated and we are eliminated yet, etc. Last year we rocked KC in some meaningless games late. I think the Sox won five of the last six vs. KC last year but when anything was on the line ... L after L after L for Chicago.

Edited by greg775
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QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 11, 2016 -> 06:21 PM)
The Sox will go 10-23 vs those teams the rest of the season. Maybe 9-24 but I'd say 10-23. That means "sell" in my book.

 

It's tough to say because of "meaningless" games late. Like I don't know who we play the final two weeks and if they are eliminated and we are eliminated yet, etc. Last year we rocked KC in some meaningless games late. I think the Sox won five of the last six vs. KC last year but when anything was on the line ... L after L after L for Chicago.

First it was,8 out of 10 now you moved the bar higher. I will bet you $100 they go at least 11-22 vs. those teams the rest of the season.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 11, 2016 -> 07:30 PM)
First it was,8 out of 10 now you moved the bar higher. I will bet you $100 they go at least 11-22 vs. those teams the rest of the season.

 

But will you bet your house?

 

Greg needs like 5 or 6.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 12, 2016 -> 12:30 AM)
First it was,8 out of 10 now you moved the bar higher. I will bet you $100 they go at least 11-22 vs. those teams the rest of the season.

The problem is the record could be skewed as far as how the Sox fare against those teams once the Sox are eliminated. Last year they kicked butt once the games didn't matter.

 

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QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 11, 2016 -> 10:50 PM)
The problem is the record could be skewed as far as how the Sox fare against those teams once the Sox are eliminated. Last year they kicked butt once the games didn't matter.

Then don't say they will lose 8 out of 10 if you won't back it up.

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It was always amazing to this point just how decent the sox record were considering the aesthetics last year. They were like the dementors of baseball, sucking the happiness out of everything. Trayce was the only bright spot last year. This year just feels more like normal baseball, but true to the last few years, Sox just never seem to get a positive career year. Seems like it's been ages since we had the surprise out of nowhere player.

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QUOTE (bmags @ Jul 12, 2016 -> 10:43 AM)
It was always amazing to this point just how decent the sox record were considering the aesthetics last year. They were like the dementors of baseball, sucking the happiness out of everything. Trayce was the only bright spot last year. This year just feels more like normal baseball, but true to the last few years, Sox just never seem to get a positive career year. Seems like it's been ages since we had the surprise out of nowhere player.

 

I dunno, Abreu and Sale were fun to watch last year.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 12, 2016 -> 11:18 AM)
Then don't say they will lose 8 out of 10 if you won't back it up.

I still stand by the record I posted. You'll see.

As far as betting, it may not be a smart move because of the "meaningless game factor." That's another Sox thing. Depending on how soon they fall out of the race, they actually then could beat those 3 Central teams as they did last year. They dominated the final 2 series versus KC when it mattered not.

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QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 12, 2016 -> 02:49 PM)
I still stand by the record I posted. You'll see.

As far as betting, it may not be a smart move because of the "meaningless game factor." That's another Sox thing. Depending on how soon they fall out of the race, they actually then could beat those 3 Central teams as they did last year. They dominated the final 2 series versus KC when it mattered not.

So they won't beat them, but you won't bet because they might beat them? The fact is if they lose the 8 out of 10 to all 3 like you claimed, meaningless game factor does enter. So your entire claim makes no sense.

 

It isn't the first time a doom and gloomer refused to bet what he claimed would happen.

Edited by Dick Allen
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