Who Are These Guys? (BP South Side Article)

[caulfield12]

Co-sign. Couldn't have said it better myself.

 

 

We said this after the 2014 season, when a lot of those free agent pick-ups wet the bed and the team got off to such a terrible start.

 

Our system lost a number of players who could have made contributions at the major league level (Semien, Montas and Thompson being the best examples)...and we simply ran out of money to spend to complete the roster because too much money was being allocated to Danks, LaRoche, Cabrera and David Robertson.

 

 

In order for your comment to be correct, Kenny Hahn would need to go out and spend $10-12 and perhaps $15 million in contracts for the remainder of this year and take on salary commitments (Bruce/Cargo, etc.) for next year as well (because of the lack of impact FA's, and the number of large market franchises competing for them)...as they did with James Shields, to cover up the lack of depth/productivity from the largely depleted minor league system.

 

Otherwise, a "roll the dice" franchise-defining Q trade is all but inevitable. We've been saying this for a long time, and it has never been more apparent.

Edited July 11, 2016 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

Let's cut it down to 3...anyone come to mind? In the "modern" era since around 2000?

 

I think 4 years is absolutely pushing it these days in terms of a competitive window. You have to have a little luck and good health.

 

 

The Twins are the team that comes into mind because they sustained that window from 2002 (2001 they really pushed the Indians) all the way through their pretty remarkable 2010 season.

 

Tigers have 2006-2014...and their free-spending owner (which disqualifies them, even though they received comp picks for being "mid market" in name only, like St. Louis). So we can cross them out.

 

The Royals, but they went through a prolonged rebuilding period, and they couldn't sustain injuries to Cain, Davis, Moustakas and Gordon (at least seemingly).

 

The Indians have gone through two massive rebuilds (post 2001 and post 2007) in the last 15 years. They aren't even "mid market" anymore, they're the BOTTOM of the market, but they made the playoffs in 2013 and look to be well set up for a 2-3 or even 4 year run at present.

 

Of course, for Cleveland to go from 2007 to 2013...well, there was a lot of fan "duress" along the way, for a franchise that set the record for consecutive sellouts in Jacobs Field during the heart of their 1995-2001 run of success.

 

You consider 3 years consistent? That seems awful short to me, especially the way the White Sox fans talk about winning in terms of multiple playoff appearances.

 

[southsider2k5]

What do we consider the Rangers and the Giants? Going back to 2010 the Rangers payroll was the bottom of the league, the Giants was top 10 but behind the White Sox. What do we consider the Cardinals?

 

DFW is one of the biggest markets in the entire country. They are absolutely a large market, and they have it all to themselves for baseball.

[caulfield12]

You also have to consider that the Rangers were one of the first teams to enjoy the boom in exploding regional network broadcast deals.

Not bad, considering they went from near-bankruptcy due to Hicks' shenanigans around the globe.

 

The Cardinals are a "decent example" because of their limited local market/tv deal, but they've had the best fan/attendance of any team in baseball over the last 20-30 years out of all the "mid/small" market teams. "Best fans in baseball," etc. Cardinals' Way/Cardinals' Nation. Of course, they earned that by being a consistently winning franchise over many generations of players. Right up there with the Yankees on the NL side.

[Dick Allen]

When considering a rebuild, one factor is the competition. Right now Cleveland looks good, but not exactly a juggernaut. The Sox are right with KC and Detroit with Minnesota taking up the rear. There is no team that you would say is anywhere near unbeatable. That is I'm reason why I wouldn't trade Chris Sale for a package of guys I hope is,as,good as Chris Sale some day.

 

I really think so,e want the Sox to rebuild for the built in minimum 3 years of constant complaining.

[caulfield12]

Five years of being content with being "mediocre at best" is preferable?

 

What is hilarious is that some are arguing that a major reason to NOT rebuild correctly is because the current front office in charge of "competing on the fly" isn't doing a very good job of that, so how could they possibly pull off a rebuild and NOT actually make things worse? Tons of logic there. Fear that things could get worse? Worse HOW?

 

The fact of the matter is that many White Sox fans have given up complaining and have simply turned to other interests that provide them and their families a higher return on investment for their time and money. Because they know complaining is pointless and won't change anything. But they also don't expect things to turn around any time soon for this particular franchise, its owner, its admin/front office and coaching staff. They're just going to wait patiently in the weeds for a playoff team to come around, and then jump back on the bandwagon like happened in 2005 and 2006.

 

No matter what...even if our attendance fell to #28-30 (which wouldn't take much at all), we'd simply roll down the payroll and still be profitable. JR wouldn't sell, the same stadium lease agreement would be in place at least until 2029. They'd still be worth a billion dollars as a franchise, because the riding tide of the NBA and 75% of MLB is going to pull them up regardless of how poorly they are managed.

Edited July 11, 2016 by caulfield12

[Thad Bosley]

When considering a rebuild, one factor is the competition. Right now Cleveland looks good, but not exactly a juggernaut. The Sox are right with KC and Detroit with Minnesota taking up the rear. There is no team that you would say is anywhere near unbeatable. That is I'm reason why I wouldn't trade Chris Sale for a package of guys I hope is,as,good as Chris Sale some day.

 

I really think so,e want the Sox to rebuild for the built in minimum 3 years of constant complaining.

Yes, yes, of course you do. Blah blah blah.

[Dick Allen]

Five years of being content with being "mediocre at best" is preferable?

 

What is hilarious is that some are arguing that major reason to NOT rebuild correctly is because the current front office in charge of "competing on the fly" isn't doing a very good job of that, so how could they possibly pull off a rebuild and NOT actually make things worse? Tons of logic there. Fear that things could get worse? Worse HOW?

 

The fact of the matter is that many White Sox fans have given up complaining and have simply turned to other interests that provide them and their families a higher return on investment for their time and money. Because they know complaining is pointless and won't change anything. But they also don't expect things to turn around any time soon for this particular franchise, its owner, its admin/front office and coaching staff. They're just going to wait patiently in the weeds for a playoff team to come around, and then jump back on the bandwagon like happened in 2005 and 2006.

You tell us twice you aren't posting anymore until,KW gets fired. Then for some reason, you come back, and now your target is Hahn. So you spend thousands of posts telling us how little they know about judging talent, but want them to trade away all the Sox good players for minor leaguers,

 

No surprise, there, for a White a Sox fan, is no logic in this kind of thinking. But then again, for a Royals/Imdians/ whoever is leading the ALCentral as long as it isn't the White Sox fan, it does makes perfect sense.

Edited July 11, 2016 by Dick Allen

[Lip Man 1]

Great Post. We forget how 1990-1994 happened didn't we?.

 

Lip: Wasn't Himes axed because Jerry was up set for him not mortgaging the farms system to improve the 1990 club late in the year?

 

That was part of it. He was pissed off that Larry wouldn't trade any kids for players like Mike Scott who was mentioned as potentially going to the Sox and after the A's claimed both Baines and McGee at the waiver deadline when the Sox could have blocked the move by claiming them, he called jeff Torborg in his hotel room and asked "what's going on?" (Jeff told me that himself.

 

Add in the trade that Himes nixed before the 1990 season opened (Yankess wanted to send Hal Morris and Bernie Williams to the Sox for Steve Lyons and Eric King) and his refusal to let Frank Thomas open the season with the big club plus the personality differences between the two men and a breakup was bound to happen, which it did in mid September.

 

Mark

 

[Lip Man 1]

You also have to consider that the Rangers were one of the first teams to enjoy the boom in exploding regional network broadcast deals.

Not bad, considering they went from near-bankruptcy due to Hicks' shenanigans around the globe.

 

The Cardinals are a "decent example" because of their limited local market/tv deal, but they've had the best fan/attendance of any team in baseball over the last 20-30 years out of all the "mid/small" market teams. "Best fans in baseball," etc. Cardinals' Way/Cardinals' Nation. Of course, they earned that by being a consistently winning franchise over many generations of players. Right up there with the Yankees on the NL side.

 

Just FYI, the Cardinals signed a deal last year as I recall with Fox Sports Midwest for 15 years at a billion dollars.

 

Not Dodger-like but pretty damn good.

 

Mark

[Dick Allen]

That was part of it. He was pissed off that Larry wouldn't trade any kids for players like Mike Scott who was mentioned as potentially going to the Sox and after the A's claimed both Baines and McGee at the waiver deadline when the Sox could have blocked the move by claiming them, he called jeff Torborg in his hotel room and asked "what's going on?" (Jeff told me that himself.

 

Add in the trade that Himes nixed before the 1990 season opened (Yankess wanted to send Hal Morris and Bernie Williams to the Sox for Steve Lyons and Eric King) and his refusal to let Frank Thomas open the season with the big club plus the personality differences between the two men and a breakup was bound to happen, which it did in mid September.

 

Mark

The Sox added Minnie Minoso that year, which the commissioner blocked, and Jerry Hairston for his pension.

[caulfield12]

That was part of it. He was pissed off that Larry wouldn't trade any kids for players like Mike Scott who was mentioned as potentially going to the Sox and after the A's claimed both Baines and McGee at the waiver deadline when the Sox could have blocked the move by claiming them, he called jeff Torborg in his hotel room and asked "what's going on?" (Jeff told me that himself.

 

Add in the trade that Himes nixed before the 1990 season opened (Yankess wanted to send Hal Morris and Bernie Williams to the Sox for Steve Lyons and Eric King) and his refusal to let Frank Thomas open the season with the big club plus the personality differences between the two men and a breakup was bound to happen, which it did in mid September.

 

Mark

 

 

Wow, never heard about that potential deal. Why is that we always seem to get the best of the Yankees in trades, but very few other teams?

[Lip Man 1]

Wow, never heard about that potential deal. Why is that we always seem to get the best of the Yankees in trades, but very few other teams?

 

Straight from Jeff's mouth:

 

ML: Before we talk about that miraculous 1990 season you were telling me about a trade that Larry Himes said no to before the season began. Had it gone through you wonder what might have happened to the White Sox and the Yankees who offered the deal? What was the trade?

 

JT: “The Yankees wanted to send us Bernie Williams and Hal Morris for Eric King and Steve Lyons. Now think about what would have happened to our team. Morris was a line drive hitter and a good glove man at first, we had Robin at third. Williams and Lance Johnson would have covered a lot of ground in the outfield and Frank would have been the DH. Think we would have won a few games?”

 

Mark

[Chisoxfn]

What do we consider the Rangers and the Giants? Going back to 2010 the Rangers payroll was the bottom of the league, the Giants was top 10 but behind the White Sox. What do we consider the Cardinals?

Rangers & Giants are big market teams, however, I understand your point, that they were able to contend despite having payroll's below that of the White Sox.

[harfman77]

When considering a rebuild, one factor is the competition. Right now Cleveland looks good, but not exactly a juggernaut. The Sox are right with KC and Detroit with Minnesota taking up the rear. There is no team that you would say is anywhere near unbeatable. That is I'm reason why I wouldn't trade Chris Sale for a package of guys I hope is,as,good as Chris Sale some day.

 

I really think so,e want the Sox to rebuild for the built in minimum 3 years of constant complaining.

 

Cleveland is primed to stay competitive though given where their farm system is at. The Tigers will outspend the division to get a chance to win as long as Ilitich is there, the Royals will likely regress to a middle of the pack team over the next couple of seasons with no more money to spend on pitching, the Twins are in the midst of their own rebuilding and are probably two years away from competing when Gordon, Jay, Berrios, Gonzavles, Stewart, and Walker all come up. Add in a top 3 pick next season and a couple shrewd trades and they will be set up to compete when they finally get out from under Mauers contract. The bigger issue with Sale is, by the time you get a team around him that can compete, he will be gone in FA and the Sox will be in the same situation, without Sale and unable to compete. The Sox are in a position where they need to turn one of their few high value assets into a lot of assets to fill the many holes on the team.

 

 

[Balta1701]

The big problem is that their TV contract is up in 2019. Are you willing to risk a rebuild being at a place in 3 years, well two really because 2016 is pretty much a sunk cost, to where their is fan interest enough for getting them the best possible TV deal? Two years from now is probably going to be the bottom point of the rebuild.

Here's the potentially bigger problem. This is a statement on MLB ratings from Forbes last July - I don't have numbers for this year, but in the middle of 2015 they had spent 1.5 consecutive years as the lowest rated team in MLB in prime time games.

But if there’s a team that seems to not be able to gain traction of any sort, it is the Chicago White Sox. Last year they ranked last in ratings at this time, and they do so again this year. The difference is that they have dropped 42 percent to a 0.8 average rating one week leading up to the All-Star Game. The White Sox currently rank 27th out of 30 in attendance and are last in the AL Central with a 41-45, 11 games out of first.

[FT35]

The problem with this is that the game simply doesn't work this way anymore. The traditional idea of a "contention window" is obsolete, for two primary reasons:

 

1. Free agency is no longer a reliable way to build a winner. Players are peaking earlier, declining quicker, and being signed to pre-arbitration extensions that gobble up their prime years. The "all in" strategy doesn't work when you can't buy enough talent with your money.

 

2. The best team is no more likely to win the playoffs than any other playoff team. The massive cost required to earn the talent required for an extra few wins above the rest of the field is wasted in October. The best way to win a WS is to maximize the number of chances you can take, not to optimize any particular chance.

 

Therefore, the most sensible goal is to be "in the hunt" every single year. A successful plan to this end is one that sees the team in a state of constant but gradual system-wide improvement. And while our ML teams' records have been disappointing the past couple years, it's tough to argue that we haven't seen "gradual system-wide improvement" in each of those years.

 

The answer is not to gut the system, nor is it to tear down and restock. The answer is to stay the course.

 

 

I really like this post. A lot of truths here and echos many of the thoughts I've had myself. It's all about a team coming together at the right time and playing better than anyone else at the right time. There is no magical formula other than to stack your deck with as many different chance cards in hopes of them paying off at the right time. The teams that are in the best positions to win now have done it this way...they can win in many different ways thanks to their diversity. There are some REALLY good teams this year and none is a LOCK to win it all in October. You just can't take a 8 month-long season and BANK any sort of guaranteed success in the week or so that the World Series is played. There are too many factors in play.

[southsider2k5]

Here's the potentially bigger problem. This is a statement on MLB ratings from Forbes last July - I don't have numbers for this year, but in the middle of 2015 they had spent 1.5 consecutive years as the lowest rated team in MLB in prime time games.

 

Sounds like a team that is primed for a rebuild.

[Balta1701]

Sounds like a team that is primed for a rebuild.

Well, I could make the argument that there's literally no further for them to fall. But instead I'll go with: at the very least the current path of 3rd-5th place finishes in the division is by far the most unacceptable. If you're going to bring up the 2019 contract as a worry - they're in disastrous shape with that on the current path. They literally could not be behind any other teams.

[southsider2k5]

Well, I could make the argument that there's literally no further for them to fall. But instead I'll go with: at the very least the current path of 3rd-5th place finishes in the division is by far the most unacceptable. If you're going to bring up the 2019 contract as a worry - they're in disastrous shape with that on the current path. They literally could not be behind any other teams.

 

I don't buy that for a second. I have heard that same argument for years now, and we have kept finding lower to go to.

[Balta1701]

I don't buy that for a second. I have heard that same argument for years now, and we have kept finding lower to go to.

That summarizes the Hahn regime quite well....

 

Anyway jokes aside...the organization has 3 contributors who hit free agency at the end of 2017. At the same time, the price of several other guys is creeping upwards, and then Eaton hits FA at the end of 2018. Like it or not, there is a literal clock on this roster - just to tread water, to stay where they are right now, will cost an extra $20 million+ at the end of 2017 and another $15 million+ at the end of 2018. And that's with players getting older too.

 

At some point before July of 2017, one of four things is going to happen. Either they're going to finally get extremely lucky and have everything work perfectly, they're going to have to majorly sell off a number of players to just get something for them, they're going to have to sell everything in their organization's upper levels even guys they don't want to move to try to put a competitor on the field, or they're going to have to be content with guys walking away for nothing.

 

They're an above .500 team right now but they are 4.5 games out of the wild card, and in the middle of a pack of 5 teams all within 1 loss column game of each other, all of whom are behind 3 other teams for those 2 slots. They could sit back and hope things go well in the 2nd half and maybe they're the team that gets lucky, but with that many opponents in the way the odds are low. They could sit back and hope things go well next year, but that's risky too - one bad luck injury could derail the franchise.

 

You're over .500 right now and you've got tradeable assets in Fulmer, Adams, and Rodon. Standing pat right now and hoping things work watches time tick on the clock you gave. If you're worried about that clock and you look at the other things that will happen to this franchise, and you're unwilling to sell guys, the other option is to make your move right now and try to turn it around, a-la the Blue Jays last year.

 

Doing nothing doesn't cost you anything this year, but it also eats away your time and is a high risk move itself. If you're worried about them "continuing to find lower to go", then sitting there and doing nothing big is a great path to that end result.

[southsider2k5]

That summarizes the Hahn regime quite well....

 

Anyway jokes aside...the organization has 3 contributors who hit free agency at the end of 2017. At the same time, the price of several other guys is creeping upwards, and then Eaton hits FA at the end of 2018. Like it or not, there is a literal clock on this roster - just to tread water, to stay where they are right now, will cost an extra $20 million+ at the end of 2017 and another $15 million+ at the end of 2018. And that's with players getting older too.

 

At some point before July of 2017, one of four things is going to happen. Either they're going to finally get extremely lucky and have everything work perfectly, they're going to have to majorly sell off a number of players to just get something for them, they're going to have to sell everything in their organization's upper levels even guys they don't want to move to try to put a competitor on the field, or they're going to have to be content with guys walking away for nothing.

 

They're an above .500 team right now but they are 4.5 games out of the wild card, and in the middle of a pack of 5 teams all within 1 loss column game of each other, all of whom are behind 3 other teams for those 2 slots. They could sit back and hope things go well in the 2nd half and maybe they're the team that gets lucky, but with that many opponents in the way the odds are low. They could sit back and hope things go well next year, but that's risky too - one bad luck injury could derail the franchise.

 

You're over .500 right now and you've got tradeable assets in Fulmer, Adams, and Rodon. Standing pat right now and hoping things work watches time tick on the clock you gave. If you're worried about that clock and you look at the other things that will happen to this franchise, and you're unwilling to sell guys, the other option is to make your move right now and try to turn it around, a-la the Blue Jays last year.

 

Doing nothing doesn't cost you anything this year, but it also eats away your time and is a high risk move itself. If you're worried about them "continuing to find lower to go", then sitting there and doing nothing big is a great path to that end result.

 

At absolute worst, you are heading into the off-season of the worst free agent market is modern history with a ton of various tradeable assets. If the Sox so desired, they could sell into the biggest dearth of talent we have seen probably since before the reserve clause was ended. They could do everything from selling short term assets, such as Lawrie, Frazier, Cabrera, to the middle term guys with a couple of years left, to the cream of the crop in guys like Sale and Q. If they really do flop this year, and they finally decide to throw in the towel, there will be lots of teams looking for players that the Sox can sell to. There really isn't a big rush to do it RIGHT NOW when they can wait a few months for the off season and have all of baseball to sell to. If you really are going to sell, it would be pretty silly to sell into a market with only a certain number of teams bidding.

[Balta1701]

At absolute worst, you are heading into the off-season of the worst free agent market is modern history with a ton of various tradeable assets. If the Sox so desired, they could sell into the biggest dearth of talent we have seen probably since before the reserve clause was ended. They could do everything from selling short term assets, such as Lawrie, Frazier, Cabrera, to the middle term guys with a couple of years left, to the cream of the crop in guys like Sale and Q. If they really do flop this year, and they finally decide to throw in the towel, there will be lots of teams looking for players that the Sox can sell to. There really isn't a big rush to do it RIGHT NOW when they can wait a few months for the off season and have all of baseball to sell to. If you really are going to sell, it would be pretty silly to sell into a market with only a certain number of teams bidding.

Turn around and consider the other side of that - that also means that it will be extremely difficult for this team to find assets to get better in 2017 for exactly the same reason. The price for even trade assets to improve the team next offseason will be high, let alone paying for free agents.

 

There may not be a big rush to sell "right now", but if they want to put a playoff contending team on the field prior to 2019, there is a rush to do that right now. If they do only minor moves (bullpen) and that proves insufficient to getting them out of the bunch of average teams, then they may well be forced into the scenario you just outlined.

[southsider2k5]

Turn around and consider the other side of that - that also means that it will be extremely difficult for this team to find assets to get better in 2017 for exactly the same reason. The price for even trade assets to improve the team next offseason will be high, let alone paying for free agents.

 

There may not be a big rush to sell "right now", but if they want to put a playoff contending team on the field prior to 2019, there is a rush to do that right now. If they do only minor moves (bullpen) and that proves insufficient to getting them out of the bunch of average teams, then they may well be forced into the scenario you just outlined.

 

I don't really see the difference between selling in July and selling in the winter in terms of what the final result in 2019 will look like.

[Balta1701]

I don't really see the difference between selling in July and selling in the winter in terms of what the final result in 2019 will look like.

I can accept that, and in fact I could see you getting higher prices in the offseason for the 2 big pitchers given that competitive teams will be unlikely to move their big league players right now.

 

However, I for one don't think that there's any chance this team sells at either of those points, and if that surmise is the case, then given the high price you've outlined for getting better next offseason and the fact that they've already gotten to the midway point of the season above .500 - that logic presents a strong case for trading Fulmer, Adams, and perhaps Rodon right now for guys who are ready to push them into the playoffs this year.