Who Are These Guys? (BP South Side Article)

[southsider2k5]

Last time I checked they had about a 15% chance of even MAKING the playoffs. That is the point.

 

Which is about 14.9 percentage points higher than they did at this time last year. The continued improvement is the whole theme that was being talked about earlier in this thread. I don't think anyone expected this team to jump from 76 to 95 wins. But they did expect to put themselves into a position where they had a chance at the playoffs, and that is what they have done.

[Hatchetman]

Well Fangraphs has them at 0.3% chance of winning the world series. So yay! I guess.

[Balta1701]

Which is about 14.9 percentage points higher than they did at this time last year. The continued improvement is the whole theme that was being talked about earlier in this thread. I don't think anyone expected this team to jump from 76 to 95 wins. But they did expect to put themselves into a position where they had a chance at the playoffs, and that is what they have done.

It was 7.8 % on this date last year. They were 4.5 games out of the wild card on this date in 2015 and they're 4.5 games out now.

[Eminor3rd]

I agree with your general premise, but I'm not sure how well it applies to the Sox's current situation. We have a bottom five farm system and are about to hit two consecutive poor free agent classes. We have three key hitters that will hit free agency after next season. Meanwhile, we have three to four years of control on most of our core assets. That may seem like a lot of time, but when you're only making "gradual" improvements, you're real window of opportunity will be very short.

 

IMO, given how much organizational value is tied up into our core, we definitely need to pick a direction. Either fill the holes around them so you can be a legit playoff contender or convert these assets into other sources of value while it's still an option. The worst thing we can do right now is hold our ground for the next couple years and wait for the system to replenish itself. Half-assing it is exactly why we've had a long playoff drought while still having a s***ty farm system.

 

Holding makes sense as a potential deadline strategy, but certainly not as an offseason strategy.

 

At the deadline, I don't think you make any significant moves that don't potentially pay dividends next year as well. For example, fi you;re going to pay real prospects to replace Garcia, you could go for CarGo but not for Beltran.

[Thad Bosley]

I'm not saying the Sox have been successful, I'm saying that the suggestion that the reaction to their failure should be to tear down and rebuild is ill-advised. I'm also pointing out that the Sox have made progress toward the goal of perennial threat in each of the last three seasons, even if that progress has been slower and more methodical than we would all like.

 

Sometimes a good plan can yield undesirable results. In professional sports (ESPECIALLY baseball), that happens more often than not. Only one team in 30 actually succeeds at winning the World Series. That doesn't mean that only 1 team in 30 did a good job; that 29 front offices should be fired. It's simply the nature of competition. When you go head to head, only one winner can emerge.

 

This front office has not tasted success, but analysis suggests that it's still moving in the direction of success. It makes sense to stay on that course until the direction changes.

“We’re blessed right now with some special talent that’s entering prime of its career, whether it’s Chris Sale or Jose Abreu, Adam Eaton, Jose Quintana, Carlos Rodon — he’s probably a little before his peak but certainly on the rise. Our goal and intent all along has been to maximize the window to win a championship while these players are on our roster. I get the skepticism at this point. But we do feel that what we’re doing now is maximizing our chances to win while we have some elite talent on our roster.” - Rick Hahn, the day after he made the trade for Todd Frazier.

 

Thoughtful analysis, Eminor. Follow up question for you: how do you reconcile the "slower and more methodical" pace of progress which you cite with Hahn's references to maximize the window of opportunity while the core is still around. All of this, whatever the Sox have been doing the past few years, is it all just going to result in one or two years, max, of championship baseball around 2018, 2019, when the contracts of most of the core will be up, given this slow pace of progression? My point is when Hahn talks in terms of a window, that sounds like a somewhat limited amount of time, and not something that lines up well with progress that is coming along at a snail's pace.

[southsider2k5]

It was 7.8 % on this date last year. They were 4.5 games out of the wild card on this date in 2015 and they're 4.5 games out now.

 

So essentially they doubled their playoff percentages year over year. Clearly things are better and improving.

[captain54]

I think you can make real and fair criticisms on the organization's ability to properly recognize talent and put that talent in the best position to succeed. But it's difficult to argue that the current team isn't moving in the right direction, albeit slowly.

 

I guess I just wonder if there aren't about 25 other fan forums having similar discussions. In a sport where failure is so pervasive, you're bound to deal with a lot of failure, sometimes unfairly. But when you are forced to evaluate your options going forward, you have to look at the process as it is today. If it makes sense, it makes sense.

 

There might be 25 other fan forums, but the Sox are in the 3rd largest market in the US, are a historic franchise in a potentially huge geographic demographic, including not only Chicago but South, West, and SW burbs, more or less further downstate, but certainly NW Indiana and parts of SW Michigan. The other MLB team in town's claim to fame is that they have a tradition of losing. It bears at least a look as to why the FO has failed to capitalize on that

 

I'll risk an unfair assessment, but the process as it stands today, is still being engineered by the same group that is responsible for a decade of futility. You can dress up a duck to look like a chicken, but at the end of the day it still waddles and quacks

Edited July 13, 2016 by captain54

[caulfield12]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-m...?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

Tied for the eighth likeliest probability to make the playoffs with the Mariners and slightly ahead of KC and NY.

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx

9th...at 8.4%

 

 

Last year, the Orioles and Twins were flawed teams, as were the Angels. Highly doubt we see the same regressions from Boston, Toronto and Houston this year...because all of those teams are going to make improvements the next 6 weeks (or already have, in the case of Ziegler to BOS).

 

Seattle also has more motivation (and resources) to make a move and reverse their slide.

 

And the projections aren't factoring in Wade Davis and Lorenzo Cain returning from the DL, for example.

 

 

 

All things considered, from where we were last year the final week of July, we're pretty much treading water...you can certainly argue the 23 7/9th's - 10 record to start was a sign of progress, but then May/June has been a brick wall that stopped that progress in its tracks. I'm not even 100% sure that their 7 consecutive late July wins last year after a terrible start didn't provide more hope than White Sox fans currently have about the team's prospects of making the playoffs in 2016.

 

[Balta1701]

So essentially they doubled their playoff percentages year over year. Clearly things are better and improving.

Actually, I just assumed you folks were correct when you said 15% and didn't double check that, only last year's numbers.

 

The current White Sox playoff odds from the same calculator are 8.4%. So you're right, things are improving - from 7.9% to 8.4% chance.

 

At this rate of improvement we'll have a better than 50/50 shot at the all star break when baseball is played by cyborgs. But those cyborgs will be truly awesome.

[caulfield12]

Actually, I just assumed you folks were correct when you said 15% and didn't double check that, only last year's numbers.

 

The current White Sox playoff odds from the same calculator are 8.4%. So you're right, things are improving - from 7.9% to 8.4% chance.

 

At this rate of improvement we'll have a better than 50/50 shot at the all star break when baseball is played by cyborgs. But those cyborgs will be truly awesome.

 

 

That's a 6.3% improvement!!! How does that NOT convince fans to come out the second half of the season?

 

Cyborg Konerko will still turn on the fastball, grip it and rip it or dye trying!!!

Edited July 13, 2016 by caulfield12

[Eminor3rd]

“We’re blessed right now with some special talent that’s entering prime of its career, whether it’s Chris Sale or Jose Abreu, Adam Eaton, Jose Quintana, Carlos Rodon — he’s probably a little before his peak but certainly on the rise. Our goal and intent all along has been to maximize the window to win a championship while these players are on our roster. I get the skepticism at this point. But we do feel that what we’re doing now is maximizing our chances to win while we have some elite talent on our roster.” - Rick Hahn, the day after he made the trade for Todd Frazier.

 

Thoughtful analysis, Eminor. Follow up question for you: how do you reconcile the "slower and more methodical" pace of progress which you cite with Hahn's references to maximize the window of opportunity while the core is still around. All of this, whatever the Sox have been doing the past few years, is it all just going to result in one or two years, max, of championship baseball around 2018, 2019, when the contracts of most of the core will be up, given this slow pace of progression? My point is when Hahn talks in terms of a window, that sounds like a somewhat limited amount of time, and not something that lines up well with progress that is coming along at a snail's pace.

 

I don't think the "slower and methodical" part is on purpose; I don't think the team is as good as Hahn & Co. intended for it to be at this juncture.

 

Just to be clear, I don't think the FO has "succeeded" to this point. The argument I'm trying to make isn't that the FO should be free of criticism nor lauded for success, but simply that the best course of action for the organization isn't to drastically shift gears. In other words, it's working -- it just isn't working as well as we wanted yet.

 

I liken it to a construction project. They shut down your road to repave it. They said it would take two weeks, but it's been delayed twice now and looks like it's going to be more like a month. You can justifiably blame the construction crew for the delay, but the best course of action is still just to keep on working on it. Rick Hahn said his goal was to build a sustainable winner, which meant equally prioritizing the present and future. There have been some bumps in the road and things are taking longer than we wanted, but it still looks like he's moving toward that goal, so there's no need to start over.

Edited July 14, 2016 by Eminor3rd

[caulfield12]

Eminor:

 

That's all find and good, but you need to calculate the risks of holding onto those assets too long and not getting anything back for them.

 

The "plan" is built on the thinnest of margins. An injury to Frazier, Anderson, Eaton, Abreu and Cabrera...but especially one of the Big 3 pitchers...leaves the organization fairly crippled.

 

At this point, there's definitely a LOT to be said for trading one of those three pitchers (and likely it would have to be Sale or Q) and using that deal to fortify the offense in 2-3 places that they wouldn't be able to afford doing it via free agency next offseason (not to mention the fact they're not going to turn around and surrender a first round draft pick).

 

What is another practical or realistic way this team can truly be competitive in 2017?

 

Right now, 2017 success is predicated on a BUNCH of things happening, like Fulmer/Burdi/Collins and maybe Hansen moving up at lightning speed to the big league club and producing almost instantaneously (or at least by the second half of the season).

 

Remember when Balta said over and over again they can't afford to break in more than one rookie or so at a time (and it's Tim Anderson now, last year it was Rodon, etc.)??? You're asking for a lot from all those young prospects.

 

In the end, trading Q in the next 9 months and Robertson this trade deadline for a young hitter coming back are the best ways to 1) inject more young hitting talent into the system, and 2) clear some more payroll space that will POSSIBLY allow them to sign ONE of their free agent targets (let's say Wieters/Ramos, but more likely Rasmus/Gomez and perhaps Fowler for CF). Once again, you're left picking and choosing from lots of second and third tier options if you limit yourself to only players who won't cost a 1st round draft pick.

 

 

[greg775]

Your logic: Frazier, Robertson, Melky,Avila, Navarro, Duke, Lawrie are absolute garbage players & Hahn should be fired.

 

BUT

 

Sox could get an absolute HAUL trading them.

 

Does that make sense to you?

 

I must have misrepresented my thoughts. I don't consider those guys trash. Robertson is an elite closer. I like him we don't need him as a noncontender. Frazier is a nice power hitter and good fielder. I'm just recognizing we can get a haul for him. He can hit bombs. I don't hate him at all as I hated Dunn/LaRoche. I like Frazier.

I do not like Melky, true. No power. Having a much better year though and somebody in the NL will WANT him.

I do think Avila and Navarro suck but they are vets and a contender might want a vet. Not a Duke fan but he is not trash, he's actually average more often than below average. He is average. And Lawrie also is not somebody I despise like say, a Beckham. Lawrie hustles which I like. I just again recognize we might get 3 good prospects from him.

I feel like contenders would want these guys. My bad if it's thought that I despise these players.

To summize: I actually have neutral to fond thoughts about Robertson, Frazier, Lawrie. I respect the season Melky is having. I don't like Duke, Navarro, Avila.

Edited July 14, 2016 by greg775

[caulfield12]

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=m...tching/2016/ALL

 

This is one of the two pitchers the White Sox gave up (for Lawrie)...the other is JB Wendelken, part of the original package for Jake Peavy (Garcia/Montas/C.Rondon/Wendelken).

 

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=m...tching/2016/ALL

 

Wendelken has pretty pedestrian stats in AAA, and apparently was around for a couple of pretty bad relief performances on the big league club before going back down.

 

 

We're not going to get much back for Lawrie, in other words. Off the top of my head, I can't think of a contender that desperately needs a 2B or 3B. Maybe he would be a bench or platoon guy. Actually, you could make an argument he would be better at 3B for the Indians than Uribe, but that's not a likely trade to occur within the division.

 

So your belief is that Saladino's going to be a better 2B than Lawrie and play so well defensively that a slight falloff in offense from Lawrie's OPS output in 2016 will basically equal out over everyday playing time for Saladino?

Edited July 14, 2016 by caulfield12

[Eminor3rd]

Eminor:

 

That's all find and good, but you need to calculate the risks of holding onto those assets too long and not getting anything back for them.

 

The "plan" is built on the thinnest of margins. An injury to Frazier, Anderson, Eaton, Abreu and Cabrera...but especially one of the Big 3 pitchers...leaves the organization fairly crippled.

 

At this point, there's definitely a LOT to be said for trading one of those three pitchers (and likely it would have to be Sale or Q) and using that deal to fortify the offense in 2-3 places that they wouldn't be able to afford doing it via free agency next offseason (not to mention the fact they're not going to turn around and surrender a first round draft pick).

 

What is another practical or realistic way this team can truly be competitive in 2017?

 

Right now, 2017 success is predicated on a BUNCH of things happening, like Fulmer/Burdi/Collins and maybe Hansen moving up at lightning speed to the big league club and producing almost instantaneously (or at least by the second half of the season).

 

Remember when Balta said over and over again they can't afford to break in more than one rookie or so at a time (and it's Tim Anderson now, last year it was Rodon, etc.)??? You're asking for a lot from all those young prospects.

 

In the end, trading Q in the next 9 months and Robertson this trade deadline for a young hitter coming back are the best ways to 1) inject more young hitting talent into the system, and 2) clear some more payroll space that will POSSIBLY allow them to sign ONE of their free agent targets (let's say Wieters/Ramos, but more likely Rasmus/Gomez and perhaps Fowler for CF). Once again, you're left picking and choosing from lots of second and third tier options if you limit yourself to only players who won't cost a 1st round draft pick.

 

As long as the team has a chance to compete, actually USING those assets needs to be a bigger priority than maximizing the return on those assets.

 

I think trading a pitcher for a hitter is the type of thing that could make sense this offseason, but not at the deadline. Any tea, willing to pay up big for a starter is going to need to retain the types of pieces the Sox are going to want back.

 

[southsider2k5]

As long as the team has a chance to compete, actually USING those assets needs to be a bigger priority than maximizing the return on those assets.

 

I think trading a pitcher for a hitter is the type of thing that could make sense this offseason, but not at the deadline. Any tea, willing to pay up big for a starter is going to need to retain the types of pieces the Sox are going to want back.

 

It is amazing how obvious this is, but everyone completely ignores. Maximizing asset returns just means you are in a perpetual rebuilding mode.

[Quin]

It is amazing how obvious this is, but everyone completely ignores. Maximizing asset returns just means you are in a perpetual rebuilding mode.

 

But trading Sale, Q, Eaton, Abreu, Robertson, Melky, Frazier, Jones, Duke, Jennings and Lawrie will allow us to stockpile on prospects so they can be ready when we trade Rodon, Fulmer, Collins, Adams, Hansen, Burdi, Anderson, Call, Fischer, Saladino, and Michalczewski.

[southsider2k5]

But trading Sale, Q, Eaton, Abreu, Robertson, Melky, Frazier, Jones, Duke, Jennings and Lawrie will allow us to stockpile on prospects so they can be ready when we trade Rodon, Fulmer, Collins, Adams, Hansen, Burdi, Anderson, Call, Fischer, Saladino, and Michalczewski.

 

If you look around MLB and pick out the teams that are trading their top players at their peak values, you aren't looking at the top franchises in baseball. Those teams squeeze every ounce of performance they can from their players.

 

You are looking at teams like the Oakland A's who are always rebuilding.

[Quin]

If you look around MLB and pick out the teams that are trading their top players at their peak values, you aren't looking at the top franchises in baseball. Those teams squeeze every ounce of performance they can from their players.

 

You are looking at teams like the Oakland A's who are always rebuilding.

 

Or the Braves since 2005ish.

 

These are the teams the Sox would end up being like, not the Red Sox or Cubs who are able to supplement trading key players for prospects with mad amounts of cash.