Military Coup in Turkey

[Quin]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/15...ard-in-ankara1/

[Balta1701]

So yeah, what are NATO's rules when there's a military coup in a NATO nation?

[bmags]

So yeah, what are NATO's rules when there's a military coup in a NATO nation?

 

Good question.

[bmags]

I had a friend teaching for DOD base in Turkey that was forced to leave 2 months ago. You always wonder how much we know about stuff like this.

[Balta1701]

I had a friend teaching for DOD base in Turkey that was forced to leave 2 months ago. You always wonder how much we know about stuff like this.

So apparently the WSJ has been on this topic for a few months with a number of pieces and I'm now just catching up. This was from May:

The restoration of the Turkish army’s influence has resurrected concerns all the way up to the presidential palace that generals might try to topple Mr. Erdogan, a polarizing figure whose extensive crackdown on domestic dissent has triggered alarm in Western capitals, according to people familiar with the matter.

 

As commander-in-chief, Mr. Erdogan oversees National Security Council meetings, appoints the head of the military, decides how to use the second-largest standing army in NATO, and is a pivotal player in shaping Turkey’s military decisions.

 

Speculation about a military coup reached a fever pitch in late March, when Turkish media reports suggested the Obama administration was trying to topple Mr. Erdogan. The rumors led to a terse exchange at the State Department, where a Turkish reporter asked spokesman John Kirby whether the U.S. was working to bring down Mr. Erdogan.

 

“Are we trying to overthrow the government of Turkey? Is that your question?” Mr. Kirby said. “It is such a ridiculous claim and charge that I am not going to dignify it with an answer.”

 

Mr. Kirby’s response did little to damp speculation. Allies of Mr. Erdogan privately wondered if the U.S. had a covert plan to topple the president, according to the people familiar with the matter.

 

Two days later, while Mr. Erdogan was in Washington, the Turkish military released an unusual statement rejecting “baseless” speculation about a coup.

 

“There can be no talk about any illegal action that is outside the command structure, or which compromises it,” the military said.

 

Many saw the statement as a clear sign that Turkey’s generals were trying to avoid being cast as a new generation of coup plotters—accusations that have sent hundreds of army officers to jail under Mr. Erdogan’s rule.

[Soxbadger]

Sounds like President Erdogan isnt in Turkey. I think the biggest concern is that this could lead to a civil war and further destabilization of the region.

[shipps]

The military seems pretty damn confident that they are going to be able to accomplish whatever they set out to do. They are blocking off bridges and flying planes a few feet above the street and nobody is stopping them.

[Balta1701]

TPM

The Turkey experts I trust tell me they think that at least for now, the Turkish military has pulled this off and is in control. Obviously coups can unravel based on a fluid political backdrop. But at the risk of sounding churlish, when it comes to coups, when you're Facetiming, you're losing ...

[Soxbadger]

The military seems pretty damn confident that they are going to be able to accomplish whatever they set out to do. They are blocking off bridges and flying planes a few feet above the street and nobody is stopping them.

 

The first step in a successful coup is to say that your coup is successful. If people think that the fight is over they wont resist the coup. With the President not being captured it creates a much higher chance that the coup will fail or become extremely messy.

 

Just not a good situation at all given Turkey's location and position in the world.

 

Balta,

 

Facetiming is a way better place than being in prison or executed.

Edited July 15, 2016 by Soxbadger

[bmags]

do we know if this is kemalist or

[Soxbadger]

do we know if this is kemalist or

 

 

Right now they are saying its the Gulen movement.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/...h-gulen-network

 

I have no idea what that is, but above is an article from a few years ago about the tension in Turkey with that group.

 

 

[bmags]

That...that doesn't seem like a positive development.

[Soxbadger]

That...that doesn't seem like a positive development.

 

As of now there is no way to confirm what Erdogan is saying. It seems like he wants to retain power, the smartest play for him to keep power is to say the Coup is a group that the US/etc would find worse to Erdogan as that would likely mean the US/etc begrudgingly supporting Erdogan and trying to keep him in power.

 

The problem with Coups is that once they start disinformation/information is hard to differentiate.

 

That being said if it is Gulen then its quite possible this goes down the path of civil war. There are just too many different players in Turkey and once the main groups start fighting, I cant imagine the Kurds wont try and use the destabilization to try and gain independence from Turkey.

Edited July 15, 2016 by Soxbadger

[RegionSox]

Seems like there are anti coup groups out on the streets now and they have a tank driver hostage

 

https://www.reddit.com/live/x9gf3donjlkq

[Soxbadger]

Reports now of tanks firing.

 

(edit)

 

This site has a livestream of one of the bridges being blocked. It sounds like you can hear the chanting. (Possible gunfire)

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016...-gunfire-ankara

Edited July 15, 2016 by Soxbadger

[Balta1701]

Reports now of police arresting members of the army, mosques exhorting people to go out into the streets overnight to resist the army, and of shots being fired at civilians.

[Balta1701]

Reports now of police arresting members of the army, mosques exhorting people to go out into the streets overnight to resist the army, and of shots being fired at civilians.

[Balta1701]

According to ABC the President and Secretary of State have announced that the US Supports the democratically elected government in Turkey.

[bmags]

All major Turkish parties now stand against coup in statements. Police apparently against military.

[bmags]

F-16s shooting down helicopters according to people I can't verify on Twitter. I don't think this coup will stick.

[RegionSox]

Even the Kurds seem to be not supporting the coup

 

HDP condemns #TurkeyCoup. "Democracy should not be replaced".

[CrimsonWeltall]

Reports of large explosions in Istanbul now

 

Eesh

[RegionSox]

It sounds like those explosions in Ankara were bombs being thrown at their Parliament building.

[Jenksismyhero]

Listening to the radio on the way home, apparently the Turkish constitution has a clause that gives the military the responsibility to ensure that Islam doesn't infect the government and that's the basis of the coup. If true, given how the country is becoming more tyrannical and Islamic, kinda puts the US in a tough spot.

[CrimsonWeltall]

Listening to the radio on the way home, apparently the Turkish constitution has a clause that gives the military the responsibility to ensure that Islam doesn't infect the government and that's the basis of the coup. If true, given how the country is becoming more tyrannical and Islamic, kinda puts the US in a tough spot.

 

It's still not clear who led the coup. It certainly doesn't seem to be the whole military, just a small faction. The Gulen people (if it's them) is also Islamic, rather than secular.