The case for Johnathan Lucroy

[Dam8610]

The White Sox are attempting to make the postseason this year and have publicly stated that they are in the middle of what they consider to be a 3 year window to compete for the playoffs. As of today, the most easily identifiable weakness on the team is the offense, specifically a lack of consistent production, something that could be most easily solved by the addition of a highly productive bat. The spots on the team that are easily upgraded at this point are CF, DH, and C, where Hahn's offseason "trade defense for offense" experiment has failed miserably and the White Sox have experienced a plethora of injuries. For all these reasons, the White Sox should pursue Jonathan Lucroy. He is a middle of the order bat at a premium defensive position where the White Sox need an upgrade. The price will be steep, but the players the White Sox would potentially give up are not likely to help in the competitive window the team has stated they wish to maintain, such as Carson Fulmer, Spencer Adams, Jake Peter, Trey Michelewski, etc. Meanwhile, a lineup with Lucroy could provide the run support the pitching staff needs, regardless of whether Abreu and Frazier turn their seasons around. This lineup looks like a playoff lineup to me:

 

SS Anderson

RF Eaton

C Lucroy

1B Abreu

3B Frazier

LF Cabrera

DH Morneau/trade if he doesn't work out

2B Lawrie

CF Jackson

 

Lucroy would also provide a defensive upgrade at one of the most important defensive positions, and is also one of the best pitch framers in the game according to the numbers for those who believe in those statistics. If there was a move that would put this team over the top and into the playoffs, this is the move.

[TheFutureIsNear]

No interest in trading Fulmer and I don't think we have enough to get Lucroy without him. Of course I'd love him but we just have nothing to trade for any top flight guys sadly.

[Dam8610]

No interest in trading Fulmer and I don't think we have enough to get Lucroy without him. Of course I'd love him but we just have nothing to trade for any top flight guys sadly.

 

You just named the trade chip that could bring him in, and if the White Sox truly are in year 2 of a 3 year competitive window, the best way Fulmer can help that is in a trade.

[Lip Man 1]

The odds of the Sox making the playoffs this year are either slim or none. Don't trade anybody!

 

Mark

[Dam8610]

The odds of the Sox making the playoffs this year are either slim or none. Don't trade anybody!

 

Mark

 

Would those odds not improve tremendously with the addition of Lucroy?

[soxforlife05]

Would those odds not improve tremendously with the addition of Lucroy?

 

We are within 1 game of being behind 7 teams for the wild card. Another losing streak and the team is finished.

[GreenSox]

They could fix catcher defense much cheaper than Lucroy will cost.

Another short term focused move so people can howl at the moon...no thanks.

[Dam8610]

We are within 1 game of being behind 7 teams for the wild card. Another losing streak and the team is finished.

 

Another winning streak and they could be on top of the division again. That's not really a good argument against doing something to improve the team.

 

They could fix catcher defense much cheaper than Lucroy will cost.

Another short term focused move so people can howl at the moon...no thanks.

 

Lucroy fixes catcher defense and catcher offense. He's a 3 or 4 hitter playing a premium defensive position, and therefore worth giving up something valuable like Fulmer.

[soxforlife05]

Another winning streak and they could be on top of the division again. That's not really a good argument against doing something to improve the team.

 

Haven't you seen our record against divisional opponents not named Minnesota? It's 6-18

Edited July 17, 2016 by soxforlife05

[BlackSox13]

I like the idea of LuCroy but the Sox need more than just a catcher to become contenders so using the Sox best asset (Fulmer) to acquire LuCroy makes little sense. It's not like the Sox are loaded with assets for trade to fix the holes in the pen, DH and CF.

[Dam8610]

Haven't you seen our record against divisional opponents not named Minnesota? It's 6-18

 

So improving the team won't improve that?

[Dam8610]

I like the idea of LuCroy but the Sox need more than just a catcher to become contenders so using the Sox best asset (Fulmer) to acquire LuCroy makes little sense. It's not like the Sox are loaded with assets for trade to fix the holes in the pen, DH and CF.

 

There are internal options to deal with DH and CF. That will require some breaks in the White Sox favor, but every team needs that to get to the postseason. This move would improve the team for this year and next and gives the team that whole time to negotiate an extension with him.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

So improving the team won't improve that?

 

You make a good argument and everything you say is true. Unfortunately with good hitting catchers at a premium I fear the Sox get easily out bid for him IF the Brewers decide to trade him now. Fulmer is probably the 1 guy Hahn won't trade just like Anderson ,not so much because he wouldn't trade him, but because there is no one in the farm system even close to being ready for the majors unless you count Ranaudo, who probably should've been called up to take Rodon's 1 start instead of Turner.

 

I highly doubt the Sox get that 1 big bat they are looking for unless Reinsdorf signs off on a big contract like he did with Rios since he got burned by that one. The more money the Sox take on the less they have to give up. Lucroy doesn't fit that mold because he has a reasonable contract for the time remaining before free agency, so the Brewers will want the best package of prospects they can get.

[NCsoxfan]

Would those odds not improve tremendously with the addition of Lucroy?

 

I don't think so. We're pretty entrenched in the +- 2 games over .500 type of team. There's a huge gap between our statistics versus the teams that are solidly in the playoffs.

 

We have got to stop trading 80 cents today that will likely be 120 cents but could be 150 cents for 100 cents.

[Dam8610]

I don't think so. We're pretty entrenched in the +- 2 games over .500 type of team. There's a huge gap between our statistics versus the teams that are solidly in the playoffs.

 

We have got to stop trading 80 cents today that will likely be 120 cents but could be 150 cents for 100 cents.

 

Fulmer is a maybe starter who has an absolute ceiling of a #1 starter and a floor of a middle reliever. Lucroy is an all-star catcher who likely has 5-6 good years left in him. Your analogy doesn't add up.

[NCsoxfan]

Fulmer is a maybe starter who has an absolute ceiling of a #1 starter and a floor of a middle reliever. Lucroy is an all-star catcher who likely has 5-6 good years left in him. Your analogy doesn't add up.

 

That's false equivalence. He's under contract for this year & next (age 30-31). Obviously you have to factor in costs, not to mention whether there's a decline in productivity (very normal after that age). So the way you frame the comparison IMO is misleading. Analogy is absolutely true. Trading many years of upside to get a little tiny bit better today with a guy who has peaked career wise. Do these trades enough times and you continue to be mediocre or below mediocre for a long long time.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Fulmer is a maybe starter who has an absolute ceiling of a #1 starter and a floor of a middle reliever. Lucroy is an all-star catcher who likely has 5-6 good years left in him. Your analogy doesn't add up.

 

I might have to take back my compliment about you making sense if you think the team that trades for Lucroy is getting 5 or 6 years from him. They get the rest of this year and next and that's it.

[Dam8610]

That's false equivalence. He's under contract for this year & next (age 30-31). Obviously you have to factor in costs, not to mention whether there's a decline in productivity (very normal after that age). So the way you frame the comparison IMO is misleading. Analogy is absolutely true. Trading many years of upside to get a little tiny bit better today with a guy who has peaked career wise. Do these trades enough times and you continue to be mediocre or below mediocre for a long long time.

 

You're overvaluing his potential in the hopes of getting a cost controlled, top end talent, which is fair, but you're not acknowledging that, best case scenario, you're flipping a coin in hopes of getting it. Lucroy is an all-star, a premium bat at a premium defensive position, and cost controlled for this year and next. It's not like we're talking about one of the plethora of corner OFs whose names have thrown out over the past couple of years, this is a catcher who provides an impact bat, and likely will for 5-6 years. It's more like trading a 75 cent option that you hope goes to 150 cents in exchange for 120 cents, if you want to use that type of analogy.

[Dam8610]

I might have to take back my compliment about you making sense if you think the team that trades for Lucroy is getting 5 or 6 years from him. They get the rest of this year and next and that's it.

 

There's an opportunity to extend him as well. He has 5-6 years of good performance left, and the team that trades for him has 2 of those years and the highest probability of getting the rest.

[soxforlife05]

There's an opportunity to extend him as well. He has 5-6 years of good performance left, and the team that trades for him has 2 of those years and the highest probability of getting the rest.

 

If any team wants Lucroy badly the Sox have zero chance of getting him. And given how he's probably one of the top 3 guys on the market and he plays a premium position he is a likely overpay for a team with a stacked system.

Edited July 17, 2016 by soxforlife05

[kitekrazy]

So will this be the NL bat that will finally work for the Sox? Dunn, LaRoche, Frazier....career NL bats.....is there a pattern here?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

There's an opportunity to extend him as well. He has 5-6 years of good performance left, and the team that trades for him has 2 of those years and the highest probability of getting the rest.

 

No come on please you just didn't say the E word did you? Who the hell passes up free agency unless they are tied to an organization since birth? Lucroy wouldn't have any such loyalty to the Sox and they certainly wouldn't try to extend a catcher into his late 30's.

 

The Sox have never had a contract over what Abreu got and that was because he was 27 when they got him. There are those who say Sox management is cheap and that's true to some extent because being cheap is smart business money wise but in the MLB dumb contracts are the norm,trading good years for bad years at the end of the contract.

 

Signing a catcher, a highly physically demanding position, to such a contract and getting nothing but reclining years is out of the question for the Sox. But someone will do it.

[Dam8610]

If any team wants Lucroy badly the Sox have zero chance of getting him. And given how he's probably one of the top 3 guys on the market and he plays a premium position he is a likely overpay for a team with a stacked system.

 

The SP market is considered fairly barren at the moment, but one of the best pitchers on the market just moved for someone that is put in the same value range as Carson Fulmer. Given that, if the White Sox strike quickly, they may be able to make the deal before some prospect rich team gets desperate.

 

So will this be the NL bat that will finally work for the Sox? Dunn, LaRoche, Frazier....career NL bats.....is there a pattern here?

 

The pattern is that the White Sox pursue and overpay for power bats and ignore the mediocre average and high strikeout rates, only to have those things bite then in the ass. Lucroy is not that type of bat, and it seems dumb to eliminate half the players in the league from trade consideration just because they're in the NL.

 

No come on please you just didn't say the E word did you? Who the hell passes up free agency unless they are tied to an organization since birth? Lucroy wouldn't have any such loyalty to the Sox and they certainly wouldn't try to extend a catcher into his late 30's.

 

The Sox have never had a contract over what Abreu got and that was because he was 27 when they got him. There are those who say Sox management is cheap and that's true to some extent because being cheap is smart business money wise but in the MLB dumb contracts are the norm,trading good years for bad years at the end of the contract.

 

Signing a catcher, a highly physically demanding position, to such a contract and getting nothing but reclining years is out of the question for the Sox. But someone will do it.

 

That's a fair counterpoint, but what are the options for this team? If they don't either catch fire like they did in April or make some difficult decisions to compete, they might as well just sell everything off like many on here have suggested. I'd rather see the White Sox trade from a position of strength to turn a weakness into a strength and hopefully turn a middle of the pack team into a much more formidable contender. Yes, you only get two years guaranteed out of him, but the White Sox are going to have to make a lot of hard decisions in 2017 as it stands. Either they're going to tear everything down at that point, or they're going to spend a lot of money to extend their competitive window.

 

[Special K]

We just used our top draft pick to nab a catcher for the future. Why would we trade the farm for a guy to come and catch to try and save a season that's not worth saving? Doesn't make sense... If we trade Fulmer for anything, should be to fill another gaping hole we have and for someone that can contribute the next few years. A center fielder probably makes the most sense (or corner outfielder).

 

Problem is, if you trade Fulmer then we're going to need another SP. Only way we improve to being a contender is if we drastically open up the check book next season because we don't have talent to do it from within. Otherwise, we stay a .500 team and keep wasting Sale and Qs best years.

[GGajewski18]

We just used our top draft pick to nab a catcher for the future. Why would we trade the farm for a guy to come and catch to try and save a season that's not worth saving? Doesn't make sense... If we trade Fulmer for anything, should be to fill another gaping hole we have and for someone that can contribute the next few years. A center fielder probably makes the most sense (or corner outfielder).

 

Problem is, if you trade Fulmer then we're going to need another SP. Only way we improve to being a contender is if we drastically open up the check book next season because we don't have talent to do it from within. Otherwise, we stay a .500 team and keep wasting Sale and Qs best years.

 

Collins isn't gonna catch.