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QUOTE (TheTruth05 @ Jul 19, 2016 -> 03:23 PM)
Is Mason Robbins a legit OF prospect?

Sort of.

 

Confession: He's possibly my favorite sleeper name in the system, but even I wouldn't have him ranked higher than maybe just outside the Top 30 names. Before the draft, I might have T30'd him.

 

Robbins is the prototypical example of a prospect that gets missed but stat line scouting. He shows very little HR power, doesn't show speed in stolen bases, and doesn't take walks.

 

But here's what you don't see:

--He leads the CAR in outfield assists and has a very good arm

--He's got 60 or 65 grade speed (I've clocked him multiple times), but just isn't doing the base stealing thing yet

--He's got very strong hands, and I've seen him flick a laser off the wall while in a poor hitting position with no leverage

--He shows very good barrel control and plate coverage (this you can sort of see in his contact rate - K/PA around 15%, and in July it's just 7.5%)

 

In other words, he's got a 60 or better arm, 60 or better speed, makes good contact despite being no threat to walk, and has substantial raw power that isn't yet game power.

 

Here's where he hurts himself, and it's two-fold. For one thing, he does actually work counts, but once he gets to two strikes he wildly expands the zone. He's got good enough bat control and coverage to not strike out a ton, but he makes weak contact in those instances. Second, because he's expanding the zone so much, he sells out leverage (and therefore power) for coverage, so he doesn't allow himself to get into a good hitting position.

 

Those things are fixable, which is why I don't consider him a non-prospect. If he changed his deep-count approach and kept himself back in a good hitting position, this is a legit MLB outfield prospect. But so far, he hasn't been able to do that.

 

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 20, 2016 -> 08:39 AM)
Sort of.

 

Confession: He's possibly my favorite sleeper name in the system, but even I wouldn't have him ranked higher than maybe just outside the Top 30 names. Before the draft, I might have T30'd him.

 

Robbins is the prototypical example of a prospect that gets missed but stat line scouting. He shows very little HR power, doesn't show speed in stolen bases, and doesn't take walks.

 

But here's what you don't see:

--He leads the CAR in outfield assists and has a very good arm

--He's got 60 or 65 grade speed (I've clocked him multiple times), but just isn't doing the base stealing thing yet

--He's got very strong hands, and I've seen him flick a laser off the wall while in a poor hitting position with no leverage

--He shows very good barrel control and plate coverage (this you can sort of see in his contact rate - K/PA around 15%, and in July it's just 7.5%)

 

In other words, he's got a 60 or better arm, 60 or better speed, makes good contact despite being no threat to walk, and has substantial raw power that isn't yet game power.

 

Here's where he hurts himself, and it's two-fold. For one thing, he does actually work counts, but once he gets to two strikes he wildly expands the zone. He's got good enough bat control and coverage to not strike out a ton, but he makes weak contact in those instances. Second, because he's expanding the zone so much, he sells out leverage (and therefore power) for coverage, so he doesn't allow himself to get into a good hitting position.

 

Those things are fixable, which is why I don't consider him a non-prospect. If he changed his deep-count approach and kept himself back in a good hitting position, this is a legit MLB outfield prospect. But so far, he hasn't been able to do that.

 

Also what NorthSide failed to mention is he has a 70 grade mustache.

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 20, 2016 -> 08:39 AM)
Sort of.

 

Confession: He's possibly my favorite sleeper name in the system, but even I wouldn't have him ranked higher than maybe just outside the Top 30 names. Before the draft, I might have T30'd him.

 

Robbins is the prototypical example of a prospect that gets missed but stat line scouting. He shows very little HR power, doesn't show speed in stolen bases, and doesn't take walks.

 

But here's what you don't see:

--He leads the CAR in outfield assists and has a very good arm

--He's got 60 or 65 grade speed (I've clocked him multiple times), but just isn't doing the base stealing thing yet

--He's got very strong hands, and I've seen him flick a laser off the wall while in a poor hitting position with no leverage

--He shows very good barrel control and plate coverage (this you can sort of see in his contact rate - K/PA around 15%, and in July it's just 7.5%)

 

In other words, he's got a 60 or better arm, 60 or better speed, makes good contact despite being no threat to walk, and has substantial raw power that isn't yet game power.

 

Here's where he hurts himself, and it's two-fold. For one thing, he does actually work counts, but once he gets to two strikes he wildly expands the zone. He's got good enough bat control and coverage to not strike out a ton, but he makes weak contact in those instances. Second, because he's expanding the zone so much, he sells out leverage (and therefore power) for coverage, so he doesn't allow himself to get into a good hitting position.

 

Those things are fixable, which is why I don't consider him a non-prospect. If he changed his deep-count approach and kept himself back in a good hitting position, this is a legit MLB outfield prospect. But so far, he hasn't been able to do that.

 

Thanks for taking the time to write this up, in depth stuff. He does seem to be getting more comfy at WS so hopefully he keeps improving his approach and more consistent with the bat.

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