Not Giving up Yet but ....

[soxforlife05]

Like what? Please elaborate.

 

I keep seeing people say that too but I have yet to see a proposal that actually covered all the holes within 2 years. The only option from my analysis is to spend an extra $50 million a season to sign a CF, C, DH and re-sign Frazier.

[Chicago White Sox]

I keep seeing people say that too but I have yet to see a proposal that actually covered all the holes within 2 years. The only option from my analysis is to spend an extra $50 million a season to sign a CF, C, DH and re-sign Frazier.

Exactly. I'd be ok with "going for it" if Reinsdorf was willing to pony up the cash and there was enough talent in next year's free agent class, but the reality is such a plan will not and can not be executed. They'll spend their remaining minor league resources to get one named player and then dumpster dive to fill their remaining holes. It sounds like even Jerry realizes that's a plan destined for failure once again.

[Lip Man 1]

No, I remember that go go era very well. Those 63-65 teams were good and fun to watch but they lacked a Frank Thomas caliber bat. However even if there were extended playoffs back then I don't know that the outcome would have been that much different. The 1949-64 Yanks were a well balanced juggernaut. In fact between 1951-64 the Sox went 118-174 against the Yanks, a .404 winning pct. The 1964 team had one of the best one year pitching staffs of all time but the team still lost to NY the first 12 times they played them. They won the last 6 but it was too little too late. If they go just 7-11 it's the Sox vs Cardinals in the WS. The Sox just could not beat the Yanks when it counted back then, traumatizing my childhood greatly.

 

Let's list the corrections:

 

1. I went through this in a column a few years ago. If MLB had a two division format say starting in 1951, the Sox would have gone to the playoff six times between 1951 and 1967.

 

2. Just like now, playoffs would have been a crap shoot. The Sox would have had as good a chance as anybody because of that pitching. You usually don't have a lot of high scoring games in the post-season. Jerry Koosman told me it's actually harder to win in the playoff then the regular season because it's a short series. Koosman said one bad call by an umpire, one fluke injury like a twisted ankle, one fluke play and you could be eliminated.

 

3. The Sox lost the first 10 that year to New York but as Sox announcer Milo Hamilton told me the reason the Sox lost the pennant that year was because of a key DH loss to the Washington Senators against two pitchers who were terrible that year. The Sox to their credit won the last nine straight to close the 64 season, unfortunately the Yankees won 23 of their last 30 games that year. Pretty tough to stop anybody who does that.

 

Mark

[SI1020]

Let's list the corrections:

 

1. I went through this in a column a few years ago. If MLB had a two division format say starting in 1951, the Sox would have gone to the playoff six times between 1951 and 1967.

 

2. Just like now, playoffs would have been a crap shoot. The Sox would have had as good a chance as anybody because of that pitching. You usually don't have a lot of high scoring games in the post-season. Jerry Koosman told me it's actually harder to win in the playoff then the regular season because it's a short series. Koosman said one bad call by an umpire, one fluke injury like a twisted ankle, one fluke play and you could be eliminated.

 

3. The Sox lost the first 10 that year to New York but as Sox announcer Milo Hamilton told me the reason the Sox lost the pennant that year was because of a key DH loss to the Washington Senators against two pitchers who were terrible that year. The Sox to their credit won the last nine straight to close the 64 season, unfortunately the Yankees won 23 of their last 30 games that year. Pretty tough to stop anybody who does that.

 

Mark

My bad on number 3, but the Sox did go 6-12 against the Yanks, although they did sweep a 4 game series in August in old Comiskey and looked like they had a good shot at the pennant. It was a different era and I actually liked that you had to win something in order to compete in the post season. We'll never know for sure what would have happened but those Yankee teams really were great. They truly were the class of baseball no matter how much I hated them. Looking at the 17 year run of the go go Sox I would like the chances of the 1955 and 1964 teams the best. Don't forget Cleveland was really good in the 50's too. Still I remember the only time the Sox broke through and won a pennant was a year in which the Yankees were not a factor. The doubleheader with Washington that you referred to must be these games.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/WS...196409071.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/WS...196409072.shtml

 

 

[Lip Man 1]

SI:

 

You got those games correct.

 

Mark

[VAfan]

I think the Sox don't have any good choices.

 

But I've come to the view at the moment that their most likely path is to try again to patch holes in the offseason and go for it again in 2017.

 

Chris Sale and Quintana will always be tradeable, so there is no rush to unload them, and their value won't be lower next season.

 

The only guys you could unload for some value before their run is up is Frazier and Lawrie and Melky. All are signed through next year. What would they net? Would it be enough to go for the tear down now, as opposed to next year, if the Sox fail again?

 

I think any tear down is looking at another 3+ years to anything competitive, under best case scenarios. At that point, Rodon is nearing the end of his first contract, Anderson is starting arbitration, Eaton will be over 30. In short, there will be no one left from this current team that will be a bargain player the way that Sale, Quintana and Eaton are now.

 

And waiting another year to start the rebuild will give you another year of development of whatever we have in the minors. And since all those guys are years off, that's a plus, not a minus. If we had several guys on the cusp, a tear down now might yield a more rapid return to relevance. I don't see that.

 

So, the Sox should play out the year. Unload any guys with 1-year contracts who won't be back for whatever you can get. But keep all the pitchers and the 2-year guys, make what moves you can in the offseason, and try again.

 

As part of going for it in 2017, however, the Sox have to try it with a different manager. Ventura has had 2 years of tweaked teams to show something, and he's failed. Not sure a new manager will make the difference, but it has to be tried.

 

Going into next year, the Sox could be stronger.

 

SP - Sale and Q will still anchor. Shields can be a solid #3. Rodon needs to be a lot better. Gonzalez might be kept as one of the options for the 5th slot. This would be better than they started 2016.

BP - lots of guys injured at the moment. Return to health should improve this unit. Plus Fullmer and Burdi might strengthen it. Fullmer might also be considered as a 5th starter option.

Lineup keepers. Anderson, Eaton, Melky, Frazier, Lawrie, Abreu. Not great, but potentially servicable. Key here is Abreu. He has to turn it around or the Sox aren't going to have a decent offense.

Lineup turnover. CF, DH, C. Those are the 3 biggest holes. They need to be filled with quality, not afterthoughts. Guys who are BETTER than the 6 keepers.

 

To conclude: when you are 3 good players and a new manager from having a contending team, it's not time to throw in the towel and start over. Better to go for it. If you miss, it won't have really cost you anything.

Edited July 25, 2016 by VAfan

[SCCWS]

I think the Sox don't have any good choices.

 

But I've come to the view at the moment that their most likely path is to try again to patch holes in the offseason and go for it again in 2017.

 

Chris Sale and Quintana will always be tradeable, so there is no rush to unload them, and their value won't be lower next season.

 

The only guys you could unload for some value before their run is up is Frazier and Lawrie and Melky. All are signed through next year. What would they net? Would it be enough to go for the tear down now, as opposed to next year, if the Sox fail again?

 

I think any tear down is looking at another 3+ years to anything competitive, under best case scenarios. At that point, Rodon is nearing the end of his first contract, Anderson is starting arbitration, Eaton will be over 30. In short, there will be no one left from this current team that will be a bargain player the way that Sale, Quintana and Eaton are now.

 

And waiting another year to start the rebuild will give you another year of development of whatever we have in the minors. And since all those guys are years off, that's a plus, not a minus. If we had several guys on the cusp, a tear down now might yield a more rapid return to relevance. I don't see that.

 

So, the Sox should play out the year. Unload any guys with 1-year contracts who won't be back for whatever you can get. But keep all the pitchers and the 2-year guys, make what moves you can in the offseason, and try again.

 

As part of going for it in 2017, however, the Sox have to try it with a different manager. Ventura has had 2 years of tweaked teams to show something, and he's failed. Not sure a new manager will make the difference, but it has to be tried.

 

Going into next year, the Sox could be stronger.

 

SP - Sale and Q will still anchor. Shields can be a solid #3. Rodon needs to be a lot better. Gonzalez might be kept as one of the options for the 5th slot. This would be better than they started 2016.

BP - lots of guys injured at the moment. Return to health should improve this unit. Plus Fullmer and Burdi might strengthen it. Fullmer might also be considered as a 5th starter option.

Lineup keepers. Anderson, Eaton, Melky, Frazier, Lawrie, Abreu. Not great, but potentially servicable. Key here is Abreu. He has to turn it around or the Sox aren't going to have a decent offense.

Lineup turnover. CF, DH, C. Those are the 3 biggest holes. They need to be filled with quality, not afterthoughts. Guys who are BETTER than the 6 keepers.

 

To conclude: when you are 3 good players and a new manager from having a contending team, it's not time to throw in the towel and start over. Better to go for it. If you miss, it won't have really cost you anything.

 

Good job but you ended flat. Finding a CF and a C better than the 6 keepers is a pipe dream.................unless you are trading a Q, Sale or Rodon. Quality CF and C are limited to begin with. DH could be filled w trading some mid range prospects and maybe getting lucky or picking up a guy like Mourneau who bounces back w a solid season.

 

[Lillian]

In response to the argument that the Sox would need to fill 3 holes in their lineup, I disagree. I continue to assert that they don't need to fill every hole with a plus offensive player. There is nothing wrong with going with a solid defensive centerfielder, as they did with the acquisition of Jackson. He, or someone like him, would be fine.

 

The problem continues to be that they need to bolster and balance the heart of the order. To me, the biggest short coming with the offense this year has been the #3 - 5 hitters. Jose has not been the offensive force, which he had been in his first 2 seasons, and Frazier has been a two outcome hitter, home run or strike out.

A .200 AVG and an OBP of .300 doesn't qualify for a spot in the middle of the order. Melky has arguably been the best of the three.

 

Eaton and Anderson are fine at the top of the order. If this roster had included one really dangerous, productive left handed bat, and Jose had been himself, I think that the offense would have been OK. Unfortunately, La Roche was never the answer, and his retirement didn't afford any opportunity to acquire anyone, any better. Guys like Frazier and Lawrie are fine, as long as they are batting in the lower third of the order. Even the lack of offense from he catchers would be tolerable, if the Sox had a potent middle of the order.

 

Now, how you find that big bat, preferably left handed, (as Hahn has stated many times) and how you get Jose back on track, I have no idea.

[ChiSox59]

I think the Sox don't have any good choices.

 

But I've come to the view at the moment that their most likely path is to try again to patch holes in the offseason and go for it again in 2017.

 

Chris Sale and Quintana will always be tradeable, so there is no rush to unload them, and their value won't be lower next season.

 

The only guys you could unload for some value before their run is up is Frazier and Lawrie and Melky. All are signed through next year. What would they net? Would it be enough to go for the tear down now, as opposed to next year, if the Sox fail again?

 

I think any tear down is looking at another 3+ years to anything competitive, under best case scenarios. At that point, Rodon is nearing the end of his first contract, Anderson is starting arbitration, Eaton will be over 30. In short, there will be no one left from this current team that will be a bargain player the way that Sale, Quintana and Eaton are now.

 

And waiting another year to start the rebuild will give you another year of development of whatever we have in the minors. And since all those guys are years off, that's a plus, not a minus. If we had several guys on the cusp, a tear down now might yield a more rapid return to relevance. I don't see that.

 

So, the Sox should play out the year. Unload any guys with 1-year contracts who won't be back for whatever you can get. But keep all the pitchers and the 2-year guys, make what moves you can in the offseason, and try again.

 

As part of going for it in 2017, however, the Sox have to try it with a different manager. Ventura has had 2 years of tweaked teams to show something, and he's failed. Not sure a new manager will make the difference, but it has to be tried.

 

Going into next year, the Sox could be stronger.

 

SP - Sale and Q will still anchor. Shields can be a solid #3. Rodon needs to be a lot better. Gonzalez might be kept as one of the options for the 5th slot. This would be better than they started 2016.

BP - lots of guys injured at the moment. Return to health should improve this unit. Plus Fullmer and Burdi might strengthen it. Fullmer might also be considered as a 5th starter option.

Lineup keepers. Anderson, Eaton, Melky, Frazier, Lawrie, Abreu. Not great, but potentially servicable. Key here is Abreu. He has to turn it around or the Sox aren't going to have a decent offense.

Lineup turnover. CF, DH, C. Those are the 3 biggest holes. They need to be filled with quality, not afterthoughts. Guys who are BETTER than the 6 keepers.

 

To conclude: when you are 3 good players and a new manager from having a contending team, it's not time to throw in the towel and start over. Better to go for it. If you miss, it won't have really cost you anything.

 

Nice post. I agree with a lot of it. The Sox are in a lot of ways, stuck. I don't think Sale and Quintana's trade value drops at all from this summer to next. The core of the Sox offense and pitching is still intact in 2017. If there is ever a year to tear down, it'd be next year if things fail again. As you said, you could trade Melky, Frazier and Lawrie now, but are you going to get much that improves the Sox future? Nothing too exciting, would be my guess. You can trade them next July if you suck again.

 

I do think it may be in the Sox best interest to just hold tight and do what they've been doing the past few years. Is it a broken record? Ya, totally - but again, they're probably not going to get any more value out of Sale and/or Q now than they are next July, so why not try one more time before the core gets broken down after 2017?

 

Sign Carlos Gomez to man center next year - maybe you can get him on an incentive laden one year deal and hope he goes bonkers. Go sign Jason Castro to a 1 year deal to get another bat from the left side, and hope that Collins will be ready in 2018. Resign a Morneau or something inexpensive to DH most of the time (Steve Pearce, Napoli, Alvarex, Beltra, Joyce, Smith, Morrisson, Moss, Lind, Teixera - there are options). Nothing there will be overly expensive and won't have future commitments.

 

After 2017, the Sox will have very little on the books. If they suck again next year, that would be the more logical time to firesale everything and start over. With the core they have now, there is a still a chance to compete next year if you don't go out and trade your two aces.

 

All that said - I get it if the Sox decide to move on. They've tried this same strategy for years, to no avail. I get it. It just seems to me the timing works much better next year, and its not like Sox best trade assets are devaluing over that time (barring injuries, of course).

Edited July 25, 2016 by ChiSox59

[kitekrazy]

I think the Sox don't have any good choices.

 

But I've come to the view at the moment that their most likely path is to try again to patch holes in the offseason and go for it again in 2017.

 

Chris Sale and Quintana will always be tradeable, so there is no rush to unload them, and their value won't be lower next season.

 

The only guys you could unload for some value before their run is up is Frazier and Lawrie and Melky. All are signed through next year. What would they net? Would it be enough to go for the tear down now, as opposed to next year, if the Sox fail again?

 

I think any tear down is looking at another 3+ years to anything competitive, under best case scenarios. At that point, Rodon is nearing the end of his first contract, Anderson is starting arbitration, Eaton will be over 30. In short, there will be no one left from this current team that will be a bargain player the way that Sale, Quintana and Eaton are now.

 

And waiting another year to start the rebuild will give you another year of development of whatever we have in the minors. And since all those guys are years off, that's a plus, not a minus. If we had several guys on the cusp, a tear down now might yield a more rapid return to relevance. I don't see that.

 

So, the Sox should play out the year. Unload any guys with 1-year contracts who won't be back for whatever you can get. But keep all the pitchers and the 2-year guys, make what moves you can in the offseason, and try again.

 

As part of going for it in 2017, however, the Sox have to try it with a different manager. Ventura has had 2 years of tweaked teams to show something, and he's failed. Not sure a new manager will make the difference, but it has to be tried.

 

Going into next year, the Sox could be stronger.

 

SP - Sale and Q will still anchor. Shields can be a solid #3. Rodon needs to be a lot better. Gonzalez might be kept as one of the options for the 5th slot. This would be better than they started 2016.

BP - lots of guys injured at the moment. Return to health should improve this unit. Plus Fullmer and Burdi might strengthen it. Fullmer might also be considered as a 5th starter option.

Lineup keepers. Anderson, Eaton, Melky, Frazier, Lawrie, Abreu. Not great, but potentially servicable. Key here is Abreu. He has to turn it around or the Sox aren't going to have a decent offense.

Lineup turnover. CF, DH, C. Those are the 3 biggest holes. They need to be filled with quality, not afterthoughts. Guys who are BETTER than the 6 keepers.

 

To conclude: when you are 3 good players and a new manager from having a contending team, it's not time to throw in the towel and start over. Better to go for it. If you miss, it won't have really cost you anything.

 

For Sale it could be quite higher. If he wins 20 on a bad team that's says a lot about a pitcher. I would be reluctant to trade away one of the best contracts in professional sports.

Edited July 25, 2016 by kitekrazy

[elrockinMT]

Like what? Please elaborate.

 

 

I think we are actually setting pretty good at a number of positions. We have had some slumping players with good histories but injuries have probably done us more harm then anything. I like our IF as it now stands and Cabrera in LF and Eaton in FR. We could use help in CF as I don't see Jackson making it back and of course at catcher. Our relief pitching has been suspect at times. People have atendency to live from play to play and game to game in their acceptance or criticism

Edited July 25, 2016 by elrockinMT