White Sox Listening on Sale

[Two-Gun Pete]

Even teams that are currently on the outside looking in might be willing to deal for Sale.

 

 

 

Sale is under team control through 2019. His value will not be that much lower a year from now.

 

You have no idea what Sale is worth. The only people who know that are Rick Hahn and the GM that accepts Hahn's offer.

 

You're right, in that no one "knows" his value. We can only estimate it.

 

And yes, I've noted that his surplus value will only go down some ~$14M in a year.

 

I've shown my work, & it looks like he's worth some ~$85.8M in surplus value due to his contract, PLUS ~18 or so WAR in current production. if you disagree, that's fine, but show your work.

 

And if there are other suitors, do the math, & come up with a deal that is both fair value, and will actually happen. Id be all for a trade, IF fair value can be attained.

Edited July 31, 2016 by Two-Gun Pete

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Profar is going to be a FA before Sale though. And I'm confident Gallo is a bust.

 

Give me Mazara, Odor, Profar, Ortiz, and Tate for Sale, Saladino, and Melky

I know that. That's why he's not headlining this deal. He also has Boras as his agent. Honestly, I think Gallo could eventually give us what Frazier is giving us right now. His power is legit. You'll never be able to pry Odor away. Unless maybe their contract negotiations go so far south they deal him. Which may have a slight chance. I know Odor and Rangers are trying to work out a new deal.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Who are the position players? Bellinger and Verdugo? I'll pass on that. I'd love Urias but trading Sale for a package centered around pitching doesn't make sense

Bingo. Use LA as leverage. The only way I'd deal with them, is if they were parting with Seager for Sale or if ya got a crazy deal from Boston and wanted to use Quintana to try and recoup some good young pitching to try and offset what you're losing with your two stars.

[Black_Jack29]

Unfortunately, Hahn's gona need to rob Peter to pay Paul. Sale may be the guy to go because he can bring back the monster haul. That's if they want to try that route instead of a complete rebuild. Personally, I'd go the complete rebuild route. If ya don't get the deals you want by Monday, hold onto them. Lay the groundwork, like Rosenthal mentioned today. This is the time for that. I believe Rabbit said we talked about trading for Frazier last year around this time. Couldn't make it happen by the deadline so he got the groundwork done.

 

This is my opinion, if they only trade one, it's Sale because of the haul you can get back.

 

I agree. Also agreed about going the complete rebuild route, but I don't see it happening.

 

[Bigsoxhurt35]

That is odd timing for the tweet by Olney IMO.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

I agree. Also agreed about going the complete rebuild route, but I don't see it happening.

I don't either. Not with this owner nor do I completely trust this front office to do so.

[Black_Jack29]

You're right no one "knows" his value. We can only estimate it.

 

And yes, I've noted that his surplus value will only go down some ~$14M in a year.

 

I've shown my work, & it looks like he's worth so ~$85.8M in surplus value due to his contract, PLUS ~18 or so WAR. if you disagree, that's fine, but show your work.

 

And if there are other suitors, do the math, & come up with a deal that is both fair value, and will actually happen. Id be all for a trade, IF fair value can be attained.

 

The problem with doing a mathematical analysis on Sale's value is that it's done in a bubble and neglects the numerous variables that affect it. These include the state of the Sox's farm system, the contract status of the players on the 25-man roster, the Sox's financial situation, the upcoming free agent market, the circumstances that affect the other 31 teams (roster, contracts, farm system, financial situation, where they are in the standings, etc.), the ramifications of Sale's mechanics on his long-term arm health, Sale's inability to control his emotions and propensity to embarrass his front office, and numerous other factors that are impossible to quantify. So I'm not going to waste my time.

 

You very well may be right that "fair value" cannot be obtained for Sale at this point, but that doesn't really matter. What matters is that the Sox cannot compete with their current roster and farm system, and that trading Sale or Q is the only realistic way to remedy the situation. It would be in the organization's best interest for this to happen sooner (2016-2017) than later (2019). A Sale-less Sox that can regularly score runs is better than a sub-.500 Sox with an unhappy Sale on the roster.

 

One thing that we can agree on is that if Hahn trades Sale to fill the numerous gaping position-player holes on the roster, he's going to have to try to maximize his return.

 

[soxforlife05]

I know that. That's why he's not headlining this deal. He also has Boras as his agent. Honestly, I think Gallo could eventually give us what Frazier is giving us right now. His power is legit. You'll never be able to pry Odor away. Unless maybe their contract negotiations go so far south they deal him. Which may have a slight chance. I know Odor and Rangers are trying to work out a new deal.

 

Their fans actually like Profar more than Odor. After what happened with Davidson I just think it's a bad idea to trade for proven failures at the ML level unless you are giving up almost nothing (like for Arrieta).

 

In fact, Davidson actually put up better numbers in AAA and at the ML level in his first ML stint. Gallo was worse in AAA and his ML debut and hasn't improved a bit in his second go around. If anything he's MORE of a proven failure than Davidson was when we acquired him.

Edited July 31, 2016 by soxforlife05

[SoxAce]

Their fans actually like Profar more than Odor.

 

So do most scouts.

[Two-Gun Pete]

'

1. You very well may be right that "fair value" cannot be obtained for Sale at this point.

 

2. What matters is that the Sox cannot compete with their current roster and farm system, and that trading Sale or Q is the only realistic way to remedy the situation.

 

3. A Sale-less Sox that can regularly score runs is better than a sub-.500 Sox with an unhappy Sale on the roster.

 

4. One thing that we can agree on is that if Hahn trades Sale to fill the numerous gaping position-player holes on the roster, he's going to have to try to maximize his return.

 

1. Then just agree to agree with me that Sale is extremely valuable, and therefore, not tradeable for full value.

 

2. None of that impacts Sale's value.

 

3. What if the run-scoring Sox are even further under .500, because they stupidly squandered an asset by trading it for less than FULL value? (Pro tip: SMART front offices force other teams to give up Addison Russell+ for Jeff Samardzjia, while stupid ones trade away assets for less than full value. )

 

4. Yes, get full value. If it cannot be attained now, then wait until you CAN get full value. Time is on the SOX's side, because Sale & Q remain under contract for years to come.

Edited July 31, 2016 by Two-Gun Pete

[dmbjeff]

And again, come up with a realistic trade that'll get it done. Boston doesn't "need" to add a Sale-like player to compete; if the season ended today, they'd already be in the postseason.

 

And I agree, in that as Sale nears the end of his contract, his surplus value declines. But to my original post, he is, RIGHT NOW, too valuable to receive sufficient return in trade. In a season or two, he will be tradeable, IMO.

 

It isn't just about this season and their ability to compete. This deal is for 3.5 years of Sale, a top SP, at the most friendly contract there is. He is an investment for the Red Sox, long term. Also, SP on the free agent market is brutal. Just nothing any team will be after outside of Rich Hill. So if the Red Sox do need a top SP for the future, which they will, it will cost them. Might as well make the move now on their end, to have a better chance at a championship this year and the next 3 years.

[harfman77]

Profar is going to be a FA before Sale though. And I'm confident Gallo is a bust.

 

Give me Mazara, Odor, Profar, Ortiz, and Tate for Sale, Saladino, and Melky

 

Profar is a FA in 2020, Sale 2019.

[Bob Sacamano]

Profar is a FA in 2020, Sale 2019.

 

He only has 3 years of control I believe: 17, 18, 19.

 

Edit: if your source is baseball reference and it says 2020, that means offseason of 19/20.

Edited July 31, 2016 by soxfan2014

[GreenSox]

Profar has a ton of talent but I believe he sustained a bad injury a few years ago and he still isn't what you would call a great bat. And the 3 years of control is significant. the Sox are going to do a quick rebuild (thus the desire for prospects close to he majors) so that leaves the Sox with 1 or 2 years of control when contending. Not enough. And then there's Gallo....

If you want lower level prospects with great potential, Texas is the team. But for Sale, don't see it.

 

Good news with the Indians getting Miller. Puts more pressure on Boston and takes one of the best arms off of the market.

[GGajewski18]

Profar has a ton of talent but I believe he sustained a bad injury a few years ago and he still isn't what you would call a great bat. And the 3 years of control is significant. the Sox are going to do a quick rebuild (thus the desire for prospects close to he majors) so that leaves the Sox with 1 or 2 years of control when contending. Not enough. And then there's Gallo....

If you want lower level prospects with great potential, Texas is the team. But for Sale, don't see it.

 

Good news with the Indians getting Miller. Puts more pressure on Boston and takes one of the best arms off of the market.

 

Profar has had 2 shoulder surgeries, correct? His health has been holding him back quite a bit.

[Whisox05]

BTW: after getting Torres/Frazier/Sheffield add to strong prospect base, #Yankees have pieces for Sale if #whitesox move him now/offseason

https://twitter.com/Joelsherman1/status/759740753442664448

 

This might start bidding war for boston and yankees. Yankee were already interested in sale before and could really put them in contention with the prospects they just got

Edited July 31, 2016 by WhiteSoxLifer

[Two-Gun Pete]

It isn't just about this season and their ability to compete. This deal is for 3.5 years of Sale, a top SP, at the most friendly contract there is. He is an investment for the Red Sox, long term. Also, SP on the free agent market is brutal.

 

Ok, so come up with a realistic trade that will provide the SOX with fair value, and has a chance to happen.

 

I've asked several posters to do so, and we haven't seen it happen.

 

Now, I would be perfectly happy with trading Sale and Q and ANY player in the roster, IF (and ONLY if) full & fair value can be attained. That said, a trade of Sale won't happen at this deadline because Sale should cost WAY too much in trade, & to acquire Sale would gut their org.

Edited July 31, 2016 by Two-Gun Pete

[Chicago White Sox]

This is Andrew Miller trade is great news for us on the Sale front. First off, the Indians are now loaded and arguably the best team in the AL. With their pitching staff, I know I wouldn't face them in the playoffs. That has to motivate other contenders like the Red Sox, Rangers, & Astros to improve their clubs.

 

Second, the Yankees have stacked their farm system with the Chapman & Miller trades. A deal built around Frazier (#21), Mateo (#19) or Torres (#27), Sanchez (#36), & Judge (#42) would be incredibly attractive to us. So not only do we now have another bidder in the mix who has the pieces to make Sale deal happen, this same team is also the biggest rival for the organization that we'd most like to make a deal with in the Red Sox. I know some posters here like to pretend rivalries shouldn't matter, but the reality is they do. Imagine how much the Red Sox fanbase would meltdown if the Yankees, not legit even playoff contenders, landed one of the favorites for the AL Cy Young today or tomorrow. This is the exact scenario we were hoping for all along, two teams desperately competing against one another for the same player. All we need is one of them to do something stupid. Not saying it's going to happen, but we're in a much better spot today than we were yesterday.

[GreenSox]

Sox retooling for a year or 2 will work out well. Indians spending their prospects, Royals flaming out, and Detroit aging. Twins are the Twins.

So will be ready to pounce in 18 or 19.

 

As for the RedSox, it's a good investment for them to make. Bogaerts, Betts and Bradley are 3 top young hitters.....they need to back them up with pitching. Sale would fit right in their window.

 

Another advantage of the Miller trade is that Robertson pretty much is the best closer on the market.

Edited July 31, 2016 by GreenSox

[Whisox05]

This is Andrew Miller trade is great news for us on the Sale front. First off, the Indians are now loaded and arguably the best team in the AL. With their pitching staff, I know I wouldn't face them in the playoffs. That has to motivate other contenders like the Red Sox, Rangers, & Astros to improve their clubs.

 

Second, the Yankees have stacked their farm system with the Chapman & Miller trades. A deal built around Frazier (#21), Mateo (#19) or Torres (#27), Sanchez (#36), & Judge (#42) would be incredibly attractive to us. So not only do we now have another bidder in the mix who has the pieces to make Sale deal happen, this same team is also the biggest rival for the organization that we'd most like to make a deal with in the Red Sox. I know some posters here like to pretend rivalries shouldn't matter, but the reality is they do. Imagine how much the Red Sox fanbase would meltdown if the Yankees, not legit even playoff contenders, landed one of the favorites for the AL Cy Young today or tomorrow. This is the exact scenario we were hoping for all along, two teams desperately competing against one another for the same player. All we need is one of them to do something stupid. Not saying it's going to happen, but we're in a much better spot today than we were yesterday.

 

Honestly ship one of each sale and q to one and the other. Who ever loses out on sale can have Quintana. The sox should be able to rebuild very quick

[bmags]

Ok, so come up with a realistic trade that will provide the SOX with fair value, and has a chance to happen.

 

I've asked several posters to do so, and we haven't seen it happen.

 

Now, I would be perfectly happy with trading Sale and Q and ANY player in the roster, IF (and ONLY if) full & fair value can be attained. That said, a trade of Sale won't happen at this deadline because Sale should cost WAY too much in trade, & to acquire Sale would gut their org.

 

Value is decided on the market, not in a vacuum.

[GGajewski18]

Honestly ship one of each sale and q to one and the other. Who ever loses out on sale can have Quintana. The sox should be able to rebuild very quick

 

I wouldn't. You'd still need top end pitching talent. This is what I would do.

 

Sale and Robertson to the Red Sox for Moncada, Benintendi, Swihart, Devers, Kopech, and Basabe. (Drive up price because Yankees now have the pieces to get a Sale trade done).

 

Quintana to the Dodgers for Urias, De Leon, Holmes, and Calhoun.

 

Farm system rebuilt.

[flavum]

Could the Sox theoretically have the best farm system in baseball in 30 hours if they wanted to?

[Whisox05]

Could the Sox theoretically have the best farm system in baseball in 30 hours if they wanted to?

 

Depends if team start caving and up the ante for players on the sox

[Bob Sacamano]

Could the Sox theoretically have the best farm system in baseball in 30 hours if they wanted to?

 

If teams ponied up, yes.