White Sox Listening on Sale

[Chicago White Sox]

Calling it an "easy path" is clearly a fallacy. Instead of having known quantities, you have multiple unknown quantities that you need to all go right, in a really narrrow window of time. It is not "easy". Otherwise teams wouldn't routinely fail at it. For a competely modern version, ask the Twins how rebuilding is working as they are on to their 3rd GM and 2nd manager in recent years, and as bad as they have been in decades.

When did I ever call rebuilding an "easy path"? I simply said there was no easy path to build around Sale in the next three years. I stand by that statement, our minor league system sucks and so do the next two free agent classes. There are definitely risks to rebuilding, but it provides a much greater probability of success than holding onto Sale & Quintana and eventually losing them for nothing.

[Jose Abreu]

Full value for Sale consists of:

 

1)Status as top 5 pitcher (Contenders need a really good pitcher, but they don't necessarily need a top 5, so they may not be willing to pay for a top 5).

2)Control for another 3/4 years (3/4 years of control isn't that important now when you're trying to win a WS)

3)Annual contract well below market value (most of the contenders can easily afford a high contract, so they aren't willing to pay full prospect price of a cheaper contract)

Another thing to consider is how thin the SP market is right now

[Bob Sacamano]

I predict neither go anywhere in the next year and they'll retool in the off-season. Maybe they'll look to sign an outfielder (Cespedes, Desmond, Reddick) in the off-season (preference being Reddick if he gets traded and no QO attached).

 

Not saying I'm 100% agreement in this but it's probably the best course to go if you hold onto either Q or Sale. Try to win next year and if results are similar, then tear it down when you could get a more realistic return for Sale and Q.

Edited July 23, 2016 by soxfan2014

[hi8is]

I predict neither go anywhere in the next year.

I could see them holding onto them as well. Urg. It's a pickle.

 

They don't have to move either unless they're overwhelmed. It's likely that someone pays through the teeth.

[southsider2k5]

When did I ever call rebuilding an "easy path"? I simply said there was no easy path to build around Sale in the next three years. I stand by that statement, our minor league system sucks and so do the next two free agent classes. There are definitely risks to rebuilding, but it provides a much greater probability of success than holding onto Sale & Quintana and eventually losing them for nothing.

 

I don't agree that the probably is "much greater" either. You are counting on the White Sox to scout and develop a lot of young talent, all to arrive and succeed all within the same narrow window and giving up your best players to do it. The failure rate for teams without large market resources for failing at rebuilds is much higher than is being talked about here.

[Rowand44]

So serious question: Just how much better than Quintana is Sale? I ask, cause the more I think about this if I'm just trading one I think it would be Chris.

Edited July 23, 2016 by Rowand44

[southsider2k5]

So serious question: Just how much better than Quintana is Sale? I ask, cause the more I think about this if I'm just trading one I think it would be Chris.

 

I think an upspoken thing here that could also play in, is Chris Sale a guy who can give you 250+ innings in a playoff push?

[Bob Sacamano]

So serious question: Just how much better than Quintana is Sale? I ask, cause the more I think about this if I'm just trading one I think it would be Chris.

 

I feel the same way. Based on Q making less money and having an extra year of control, they're basically even to me.

[Bob Sacamano]

I think an upspoken thing here that could also play in, is Chris Sale a guy who can give you 250+ innings in a playoff push?

 

We may never know if he remains in this uniform. But the way people want Robin to baby him, I don't think he'd be able to.

[hi8is]

I feel the same way. Based on Q making less money and having an extra year of control, they're basically even to me.

Yea. Add in Q having a higher chance of staying healthy and I'd be more apt for Q.

[Lip Man 1]

I don't agree that the probably is "much greater" either. You are counting on the White Sox to scout and develop a lot of young talent, all to arrive and succeed all within the same narrow window and giving up your best players to do it. The failure rate for teams without large market resources for failing at rebuilds is much higher than is being talked about here.

 

There certainly are no easy answers, easy solutions and all involve some risk (that's baseball friends). But I am curious to hear as exactly as possible how you would get the team out of this mess.

 

Thanks.

 

Mark

 

 

[Whisox05]

Another thing to consider is how thin the SP market is right now

 

And the offseason. Rich hill is probably one of the better free agents this offseason. Got the likes of cashner, peavy, Fister, dickey, weaver and possibly kazmir also out there. None of these guys are anywhere close to sale. Theres only a couple teams that have the likes to be able to afford trying to trade for sale and they are trying to win now. Will be the same teams in the offseason. Probably have a bidding war now. Dodgers are probably going to be desperate.

 

[ptatc]

I've outlined a plan to build without him, so have others. I have not seen one single plan on how we can win with him before he leaves before free agency. By all means, share your plan if you have one. Otherwise, don't call rebuilding a fallacy, because it's the only course of action with actual logic to it IMO.

I think the plan will be to trade Quintana and Robertson and a few others. I think that is the plan they will use and I think it is the better option than trading both pitchers.

[iamshack]

Calling it an "easy path" is clearly a fallacy. Instead of having known quantities, you have multiple unknown quantities that you need to all go right, in a really narrrow window of time. It is not "easy". Otherwise teams wouldn't routinely fail at it. For a competely modern version, ask the Twins how rebuilding is working as they are on to their 3rd GM and 2nd manager in recent years, and as bad as they have been in decades.

You certainly do NOT need everything to go right. That is exactly the point of moving these guys now, so you can collect so much young talent that you just sort of figure out how to put it all together when that time comes.

 

The Twins are a s*** example. Last I remember, the Twins did not do what many of the posters here who want the White Sox to sell are asking them to do. The Twins didn't trade 2 of the better starting pitcher packages in modern history in order to jump start a rebuild.

 

People want to talk about a rebuild being a long road...it is actually the shortest road, barring something fairly unforeseen happening, such as some of our kids magically turning into the next Mike Trout out of nowhere.

 

 

[Quin]

Just to frame the package for a HoF caliber pitcher under control for what a #3 or #4 starter makes, in his prime, in a thin pitching market when pitchers are getting absurd deals.

 

Think of the biggest return ever in a trade in MLB history. That's what Sale's price is.

[Chicago White Sox]

I think the plan will be to trade Quintana and Robertson and a few others. I think that is the plan they will use and I think it is the better option than trading both pitchers.

Trade them for what? How do you replace those two and fill the holes at CF, DH, & C and in our bullpen? And do you extend Frazier, Melky, & Lawire to big contracts? If not, how do you replace them after next season?

 

There are simply too many question marks and you're hoping that all the players you receive for Quintana & Robertson work and fill all those holes instantly. That's a suckers bet IMO and no different than what we've been doing the past few years.

Edited July 23, 2016 by Chicago White Sox

[Rowand44]

Just to frame the package for a HoF caliber pitcher under control for what a #3 or #4 starter makes, in his prime, in a thin pitching market when pitchers are getting absurd deals.

 

Think of the biggest return ever in a trade in MLB history. That's what Sale's price is.

And Quintana's? He really hasn't been all that much less productive than Sale the last 3 years, makes less and is under control for an extra year. Super interesting.

[southsider2k5]

There certainly are no easy answers, easy solutions and all involve some risk (that's baseball friends). But I am curious to hear as exactly as possible how you would get the team out of this mess.

 

Thanks.

 

Mark

 

For my two cents, this is how I see it. I don't see Kenny and Rick going anywhere. While things have gotten better, I think asking them to lead a full youth movement is like asking a fish to climb a tree. I think asking them to do something that has never been done well here is a fools errand. You can make the posts about firing them all you want, but then you aren't dealing in reality. Reality is that they will be running this team for the forseeable future. As long as that is the case, a full rebuild is probably the worst possible scenario.

[southsider2k5]

You certainly do NOT need everything to go right. That is exactly the point of moving these guys now, so you can collect so much young talent that you just sort of figure out how to put it all together when that time comes.

 

The Twins are a s*** example. Last I remember, the Twins did not do what many of the posters here who want the White Sox to sell are asking them to do. The Twins didn't trade 2 of the better starting pitcher packages in modern history in order to jump start a rebuild.

 

People want to talk about a rebuild being a long road...it is actually the shortest road, barring something fairly unforeseen happening, such as some of our kids magically turning into the next Mike Trout out of nowhere.

 

Like they did with Johan Santana? How'd that work out.

[southsider2k5]

Just to frame the package for a HoF caliber pitcher under control for what a #3 or #4 starter makes, in his prime, in a thin pitching market when pitchers are getting absurd deals.

 

Think of the biggest return ever in a trade in MLB history. That's what Sale's price is.

 

As well it should be.

[Quin]

And Quintana's? He really hasn't been all that much less productive than Sale the last 3 years, makes less and is under control for an extra year. Super interesting.

 

I'd say 80% of that probably. Sale's name, arsenal, and W-L puts him above Q.

 

And this is why it sucks that we don't get to see that duo in the playoffs.

[Dick Allen]

I don't think Boston would give up Moncada for either. They spent $63 million signing him with bonus plus penalty. I find it hard to believe he would be available starlight up let alone in a package.

[Dick Allen]

I'd say 80% of that probably. Sale's name, arsenal, and W-L puts him above Q.

 

And this is why it sucks that we don't get to see that duo in the playoffs.

The problem with Sale and probably Q is although every team would love either of them, there really isn't much of a market for them at what most of us consider a minimal market price. It is a huge hit to take for one guy.

 

Teams will try , but chances are IMO, no deal. Maybe down the road if the team is still in the doldrums and their contracts are closer to ending.

 

To me, the price has to Br almost ridiculously high as the white Sox are taking most of the risk if they trade either for prospects.

[Chicago White Sox]

I don't think Boston would give up Moncada for either. They spent $63 million signing him with bonus plus penalty. I find it hard to believe he would be available starlight up let alone in a package.

Wow, you honestly think the Red Sox wouldn't trade Moncada straight up for Sale?

[dmbjeff]

I don't think Boston would give up Moncada for either. They spent $63 million signing him with bonus plus penalty. I find it hard to believe he would be available starlight up let alone in a package.

 

I don't think they want to deal him too, but they know to get a Sale type talent, Moncada has to be in the trade package. The Red Sox also have so much talent on the MLB roster and so much money to spend to replace players like Big Papi, they can afford to let their top prospects go for Sale. That's the only way Sale gets dealt anyhow.