Jose Abreu

[ChiSoxFanMike]

Ron's posts are a little extreme, but I don't necessarily disagree with him. He was a ghost offensively when the Sox were still in the hunt. He's killing it now, but it's much easier to pad stats when the games don't mean anything and there's much less pressure.

 

Abreu isn't as bad as Ron makes him out to be, but it's not like he was some stud the first 3-4 months of the season either.

[Whisox05]

http://www.csnchicago.com/chicago-white-so...win-over-tigers

 

Abreu attributes the improvement to motivation provided by first-ever visit of his son, Dariel, and a mechanical adjustment with his hands.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Ron's posts are a little extreme, but I don't necessarily disagree with him. He was a ghost offensively when the Sox were still in the hunt. He's killing it now, but it's much easier to pad stats when the games don't mean anything and there's much less pressure.

 

Abreu isn't as bad as Ron makes him out to be, but it's not like he was some stud the first 3-4 months of the season either.

So basically you are saying that Jose only performs well when the games don't mean anything (i.e. Basically his entire Sox career minus April and May of each season since they haven't been in a playoff race in the second half of any season during his 3 years here).

[lasttriptotulsa]

Jose starts finally producing when it doesn't matter and people keep calling me out? Too bad he couldn't do it back when it mattered. I'll reiterate what I've previously said. Jose isn't what we thought he was. The league adjusted to him after his rookie year. He is a mid-tier first baseman.

 

He has a .342/.390/.573 slash line in the 2nd half. What exactly did you think he was going to be because that is about as good as it gets.

 

Ron's posts are a little extreme, but I don't necessarily disagree with him. He was a ghost offensively when the Sox were still in the hunt. He's killing it now, but it's much easier to pad stats when the games don't mean anything and there's much less pressure.

 

Abreu isn't as bad as Ron makes him out to be, but it's not like he was some stud the first 3-4 months of the season either.

 

In baseball there are these things called slumps. It happens to even the best of the best. If during your slumps you are still a league average bat and when you're not in a slump you are among the best hitters in the game then overall you are pretty damn good.

[southsider2k5]

Jose starts finally producing when it doesn't matter and people keep calling me out? Too bad he couldn't do it back when it mattered. I'll reiterate what I've previously said. Jose isn't what we thought he was. The league adjusted to him after his rookie year. He is a mid-tier first baseman.

 

I think this guy must be the guy who smuggled Jose across the gulf and never got paid.

[oldsox]

Jose starts finally producing when it doesn't matter and people keep calling me out? Too bad he couldn't do it back when it mattered. I'll reiterate what I've previously said. Jose isn't what we thought he was. The league adjusted to him after his rookie year. He is a mid-tier first baseman.

MLB Network had him ranked around 4-5 among all first basemen pre season, IIRC. He'll still be Top 10. Like everyone else, he swings at too many breaking balls in the dirt; still, a heckuva hitter.

[OmarComing25]

For what it's worth, the difference between Abreu's 2016 and 2015 numbers is basically 2-3 HR. Even when he was struggling in the first half, he was top 5 among all hitters in average flyball distance. Rotographs has been calling him a great buy-low candidate for fantasy all season because of this, because there was no way that low homerun rate was going to continue. Turns out they were right.

Edited September 8, 2016 by OmarComing25

[shysocks]

Offense across the league is up significantly from last year. The MLB-wide OPS has jumped 20 points. Slugging is up 15 points. Players are hitting home runs every 32.6 plate appearances compared to 37.4 last season. Here's my favorite one - last year 19 players reached 30 homers. This year 20 players have, and we still have over three weeks remaining in the season.

 

So even though Abreu's triple slash is practically a carbon copy of last year's (and that's good considering the long slump), the standard of offense is now higher. If he puts up the same numbers but all the other hitters get better, then he's less impactful. If he hits 30 homers again but so does everyone else, then it doesn't mean as much. He needs to raise his game too and for the Sox to compete he needs to be a star. That's not his fault, that's the front office's fault.

 

Obviously he hasn't been figured out. That was wrong. Coming out and saying he's only done it when it hasn't counted is textbook moving the goalposts and also one of the more annoying arguments people make about any player. Flip the scenario around. If he had started hot and the Sox hovered 7-8 games over .500 until August, then he went in the tank and the Sox fell out of the race, would that be any better? Just look at a guy's line; trying to analyze his season based on where the team was in the standings when he hit is a meatheaded exercise.

[Greg Hibbard]

Jose starts finally producing when it doesn't matter and people keep calling me out? Too bad he couldn't do it back when it mattered. I'll reiterate what I've previously said. Jose isn't what we thought he was. The league adjusted to him after his rookie year. He is a mid-tier first baseman.

 

Ron obviously thought that Jose Abreu would automatically sustain a .964 OPS after a single season, which would make him....one of the top 20 baseball hitters of all time.

 

My lord, man. It must royally suck to have to root so hard against one of your own players every night.... and to have be proven wrong literally every single day since August 1st.

 

Please. Give up the ghost. There isn't a better offensive player in MLB since August 1st than Jose Abreu. IN ALL OF BASEBALL. AT THE MAJOR LEAGUE LEVEL.

 

Oh and Frank Thomas also produced a lot when it didn't matter....I wonder if you qualify his career numbers in the same way.

 

 

 

 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Offense across the league is up significantly from last year. The MLB-wide OPS has jumped 20 points. Slugging is up 15 points. Players are hitting home runs every 32.6 plate appearances compared to 37.4 last season. Here's my favorite one - last year 19 players reached 30 homers. This year 20 players have, and we still have over three weeks remaining in the season.

 

So even though Abreu's triple slash is practically a carbon copy of last year's (and that's good considering the long slump), the standard of offense is now higher. If he puts up the same numbers but all the other hitters get better, then he's less impactful. If he hits 30 homers again but so does everyone else, then it doesn't mean as much. He needs to raise his game too and for the Sox to compete he needs to be a star. That's not his fault, that's the front office's fault.

 

Obviously he hasn't been figured out. That was wrong. Coming out and saying he's only done it when it hasn't counted is textbook moving the goalposts and also one of the more annoying arguments people make about any player. Flip the scenario around. If he had started hot and the Sox hovered 7-8 games over .500 until August, then he went in the tank and the Sox fell out of the race, would that be any better? Just look at a guy's line; trying to analyze his season based on where the team was in the standings when he hit is a meatheaded exercise.

Nah, that's just the "James Shields effect." Unfortunately, Jose doesn't have the privilege of facing Shields this season.

[chitownsportsfan]

It's not Jose's fault that the offense wasn't able to produce more and keep the Sox competitive until he heated up. I mean if this was a pennant race we'd be praising him for turning it up down the stretch. That said, I had hopes he'd be a 5 WAR player consistently and those hopes have pretty much been dashed. Maybe he'll have a monster line next year but his defense and baserunning are about as bad as advertised so he needs to hit like 300/370/580 to put up that 5 WAR.

 

Can he do it again like his rookie year? Hope so but not banking on it. He looks more like a 2-3 WAR player. Good starter, but not a superstar.

[Dick Allen]

It's not Jose's fault that the offense wasn't able to produce more and keep the Sox competitive until he heated up. I mean if this was a pennant race we'd be praising him for turning it up down the stretch. That said, I had hopes he'd be a 5 WAR player consistently and those hopes have pretty much been dashed. Maybe he'll have a monster line next year but his defense and baserunning are about as bad as advertised so he needs to hit like 300/370/580 to put up that 5 WAR.

 

Can he do it again like his rookie year? Hope so but not banking on it. He looks more like a 2-3 WAR player. Good starter, but not a superstar.

Using advanced metrics, Jose Abreu is a better defensive 1B this year than the 3 time defending GG winner, and only slightly worse during his career.

[OmarComing25]

Using advanced metrics, Jose Abreu is a better defensive 1B this year than the 3 time defending GG winner, and only slightly worse during his career.

That's just because Hosmer's defense has always been way overrated. He can pick it with the best of them, but that doesn't mean much when you have by far the worst range of any 1B.

[Dick Allen]

That's just because Hosmer's defense has always been way overrated. He can pick it with the best of them, but that doesn't mean much when you have by far the worst range of any 1B.

I was actually shocked reading about it. He's the Derek Jeter of 1B. Just watching him, he looks like a magician.

[southsider2k5]

That's just because Hosmer's defense has always been way overrated. He can pick it with the best of them, but that doesn't mean much when you have by far the worst range of any 1B.

 

Sounds a lot like Paul Konerko.

[Chisoxfn]

It's not Jose's fault that the offense wasn't able to produce more and keep the Sox competitive until he heated up. I mean if this was a pennant race we'd be praising him for turning it up down the stretch. That said, I had hopes he'd be a 5 WAR player consistently and those hopes have pretty much been dashed. Maybe he'll have a monster line next year but his defense and baserunning are about as bad as advertised so he needs to hit like 300/370/580 to put up that 5 WAR.

 

Can he do it again like his rookie year? Hope so but not banking on it. He looks more like a 2-3 WAR player. Good starter, but not a superstar.

He was a 5.5, 3.8 and right now at 2.6. I don't know where you get the 2-3, but I think more likely he is a 3-4 WAR player, maybe a 5 WAR, but seems unlikely he is a 2 WAR player (given even with all his struggles, he'll finish the year somewhere pretty close to 3. He is also on pace for more walks and fewer strikeouts then last year (yes less power as well) but a slightly better average and OBP. We've seen he can still hit for power too.

[harkness99]

Abreu has been great lately... its pretty crazy. Hopefully he keeps that going next year - because this team is way more fun to watch when he is this guy.

 

I'm not however going to do the whole revisionist history act... he was very pedestrian for a lot of the season: For a long time he was leading MLB in men left on base... he still ranks 144 out of 153 qualified batters or something.

 

 

He left *hit ton of RBI's out there... and he still could reach 100. that's pretty crazy.

 

 

Hopefully he carries it into the beginning of next year and beyond.

[greg775]

Jose starts finally producing when it doesn't matter and people keep calling me out? Too bad he couldn't do it back when it mattered. I'll reiterate what I've previously said. Jose isn't what we thought he was. The league adjusted to him after his rookie year. He is a mid-tier first baseman.

He stunk early, but who cares? The body of work is stellar. Whether or not you are trolling is debatable. If not, I'll just say the league has not conclusively adjusted to him. How can you say that when he's hitting .300 with almost 30 homers?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Abreu has been great lately... its pretty crazy. Hopefully he keeps that going next year - because this team is way more fun to watch when he is this guy.

 

I'm not however going to do the whole revisionist history act... he was very pedestrian for a lot of the season: For a long time he was leading MLB in men left on base... he still ranks 144 out of 153 qualified batters or something.

 

 

He left *hit ton of RBI's out there... and he still could reach 100. that's pretty crazy.

 

 

Hopefully he carries it into the beginning of next year and beyond.

Next year ? I thought we were going to rebuild ? Next year for another team perhaps .

[chitownsportsfan]

He was a 5.5, 3.8 and right now at 2.6. I don't know where you get the 2-3, but I think more likely he is a 3-4 WAR player, maybe a 5 WAR, but seems unlikely he is a 2 WAR player (given even with all his struggles, he'll finish the year somewhere pretty close to 3. He is also on pace for more walks and fewer strikeouts then last year (yes less power as well) but a slightly better average and OBP. We've seen he can still hit for power too.

 

bWAR doesn't hate his defense as much as Fangraphs. by fWAR he's 5.3, 3, 1.4.

 

That thing that's alarming is his wRC+

 

161

129

118

 

and his iso:

 

.264

.212

.185

 

 

his power is declining big time. I am still of the opinion that he is older then advertised. He moves and play like a 31-34 year old. Not someone still in his late 20s.

 

Thanks for a reasoned reply tho, those seem rare when talking WAR around here.

Edited September 9, 2016 by chitownsportsfan

[OmarComing25]

bWAR doesn't hate his defense as much as Fangraphs. by fWAR he's 5.3, 3, 1.4.

 

That thing that's alarming is his wRC+

 

161

129

118

 

and his iso:

 

.264

.212

.185

 

 

his power is declining big time. I am still of the opinion that he is older then advertised. He moves and play like a 31-34 year old. Not someone still in his late 20s.

 

Thanks for a reasoned reply tho, those seem rare when talking WAR around here.

Is his power really declining though or did he just have a bad first two months? Since the beginning of June his ISO is .213 and wRC+ is 143.

 

Also, according to baseballheatmaps his average flyball distance has been increasing every year. In 2014 it was 305 feet, 2015 it was 307 feet, and in 2016 it's 315 feet. ESPN's Homerun tracker bears this out too. In 2014 14 out of his 36 homeruns were classified as "just enough" (39%). In 2015 12 of his 30 homeruns were of the "just enough" variety (40%). However, this year just 5 of his 23 homeruns were in that category (21%). Seems to me that he's gotten a bit unlucky this year with the number of flyballs that have left the park, at least compared to his first two seasons. He already has the same number of no-doubt homeruns as he did last year, and he's only 4 off the number he hit in 2014, so it's not yet out of the question that he could match that number this year.

 

http://www.baseballheatmaps.com/graph/distanceleader.php

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/index.php

Edited September 9, 2016 by OmarComing25

[Soxfest]

Abreu future is at DH..................get a good first baseman this winter.

[harkness99]

Next year ? I thought we were going to rebuild ? Next year for another team perhaps .

 

Yeah... we all know there is no rebuilding going to happen.

 

I sure never have said that heh.

[southsider2k5]

Scott Merkin ‏@scottmerkin 3h3 hours ago Ann Arbor, MI Jose Abreu in his last 22 games: .389 AVG, 9 HR, 27 RBIs, again per MLB Network notes

 

6 retweets 12 likes

[greg775]

bWAR doesn't hate his defense as much as Fangraphs. by fWAR he's 5.3, 3, 1.4.

 

That thing that's alarming is his wRC+

 

161

129

118

 

and his iso:

 

.264

.212

.185

 

 

his power is declining big time. I am still of the opinion that he is older then advertised. He moves and play like a 31-34 year old. Not someone still in his late 20s.

 

Thanks for a reasoned reply tho, those seem rare when talking WAR around here.

That's sad if he's really 34.