Jose Abreu

[shysocks]

The others? You're the reason I'll get up out of my seats and move so I don't have to hear about how Brett "Lorrie" and "Tom" Anderson make a great infield.

That's actually the correct pronunciation of Lawrie's name.

[southsider2k5]

And now we are at the Meatball Level of fandom.

[bmags]

What's actually nauseating about this thread is that several people are being sanctimonious to others about the impact of not seeing one's child on one's baseball stats, when this thread was actually intended to be the next nail in the coffin about Jose Abreu being "figured out" or his career being "finished."

 

Would the lot of you please get off of your damned high horse and see the forest for the trees, here? JFC, the explanations aren't even consistent. If he was missing his son, why just for the first four months of 2016 specifically was it a factor? Yes, I have no doubt it gets harder as more time passes. However....who the f*** is anyone to tell me that 2 seasons was fine but the 3rd is harder? What the actual f***, guys?

 

Would you guys care to look at Royce Clayton's personal life and tell me what was going on with him that accounted for his abysmal first half in 2001? Maybe if we look hard enough under a rock, we can find personal reasons why Frank Thomas struggled specifically in 1998 with average and 1999 with power numbers. While we are at it, why not explain away a million other things about Adam Dunn, or anyone else over the years in terms of their personal circumstances at the time?

 

In fact, why don't we have a sub-forum with 25 individual threads detailing the day-to-day personal struggles of each member of this team?

 

...let me bring this thread back into focus with what should have been said three pages ago

 

3 home runs in 4 games should put to bed this NONSENSE that Jose Abreu is "finished" as a major league hitter or that major league pitching has categorically "figured him out"

 

...REGARDLESS OF HIS PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES.

 

He's declined 3 straight years. No one is saying his son could be the only reason he has declined, but it could certainly be a factor. His son just arrived for a visit and his play perked up. Could be a coincidence, but could matter.

 

If I paid you $20 million to be poster on this board, which I wouldn't - to be clear - that's going to greg for a new house, you would have days that your personal life affected your focus. Baseball players play nearly every day for four months. Focus can be an issue. It doesn't mean you couldn't have some great days there, but you may have more bad posts than otherwise because of some personal struggles.

 

People admire Jackie Robinson for putting up with so much off the field threats and criticism and still performing. But really, why are we admiring him? He just needed to play baseball for a couple of swings.

[Kyyle23]

And now we are at the Meatball Level of fandom.

 

They've gone plaid!

[Quin]

That's actually the correct pronunciation of Lawrie's name.

 

 

He's declined 3 straight years. No one is saying his son could be the only reason he has declined, but it could certainly be a factor. His son just arrived for a visit and his play perked up. Could be a coincidence, but could matter.

 

If I paid you $20 million to be poster on this board, which I wouldn't - to be clear - that's going to greg for a new house, you would have days that your personal life affected your focus. Baseball players play nearly every day for four months. Focus can be an issue. It doesn't mean you couldn't have some great days there, but you may have more bad posts than otherwise because of some personal struggles.

 

People admire Jackie Robinson for putting up with so much off the field threats and criticism and still performing. But really, why are we admiring him? He just needed to play baseball for a couple of swings.

 

s***. I good friend in the hospital right now and it's affected me at work. People are...people. Shocking.

[Greg Hibbard]

Yes, Abreu has "declined" in three straight years. I guess. i would say his rookie year and 2nd year were not really all that much different in that they were both excellent seasons, but ok.

 

He's currently on pace for:

 

1) within 5 hits of his rookie year (173 vs. 178)

2) more doubles than he has ever had (on pace for 37)

3) more walks than last year (not as many as his rookie year)

4) 20 home runs ALREADY, which is not 30 or 36, but it's not insignificant, and is likely to be HIGHER than that, so we all admit he's been slumping.

 

Perhaps we should also note that despite his power outage in July (which I think is still just an anomaly of sample size), he's hitting about .300 since June 1st.

Edited August 9, 2016 by Greg Hibbard

[bmags]

Yes, Abreu has "declined" in three straight years. I guess. i would say his rookie year and 2nd year were not really all that much different in that they were both excellent seasons, but ok.

 

He's currently on pace for:

 

1) within 5 hits of his rookie year (173 vs. 178)

2) more doubles than he has ever had (on pace for 37)

3) more walks than last year (not as many as his rookie year)

4) 20 home runs ALREADY, which is not 30 or 36, but it's not insignificant, and is likely to be HIGHER than that, so we all admit he's been slumping.

 

Perhaps we should also note that despite his power outage in July (which I think is still just an anomaly of sample size), he's hitting about .300 since June 1st.

 

 

That's cool and all but a .300 singles-hitting first baseman isn't valuable.

 

2014 - .964 OPS

2015 - .850 OPS

2016 - .770 OPS

 

Not sure why you added "Already" after "on pace for", but 20 hr for our power hitting 1b is disappointing.

 

Great that he has more walks but his OBP is lower.

 

Not sure why you are debating whether he has declined when there is clear evidence he has but are arguing against what caused that decline when it's anecdotal anyways.

[Greg Hibbard]

Nice job of turning my position into Jose being a "singles hitter," when I just said he's on pace for more doubles than he has had in his entire career.

 

Let me make my position perfectly clear. I think Jose Abreu had a slow start / off April and May - for whatever reason.

 

Since June 1st, he's been himself, albeit he had a hot June, a power (actually just homer) outage in July, and a hot early August.

 

In the last 56 games,

 

218 abs, 67 hits, 8 home runs, 16 doubles, 33 RBI, 16 walks,

 

.307/.367/.490/.857

 

In other words, Jose now has a HIGHER OPS in the last 56 games than he had last year.

 

So, is it more likely than Jose had an off couple of months, statistically, or that he is in DECLINE?

Edited August 9, 2016 by Greg Hibbard

[bmags]

He had a slow start in 2015 too, should I remove that to show how much better his june-end of season was?

[Greg Hibbard]

He had a slow start in 2015 too, should I remove that to show how much better his june-end of season was?

 

Is your position that Jose Abreu is in some sort of permanent decline, yes or no?

[Greg Hibbard]

He had a slow start in 2015 too, should I remove that to show how much better his june-end of season was?

 

Um, He hit .293 in April 2015 with a .932 OPS.

[shipps]

Dammit bmags, what is your position!?

[Greg Hibbard]

Dammit bmags, what is your position!?

 

 

Apparently, it is that Jose Abreu's .932 OPS in April 2015 was indicative of a slow start.

[Hatchetman]

We have no idea if he is in decline or not. Let's hope not, but the stats are what they are. In 2016 he's been below league average 1B.

[Greg Hibbard]

We have no idea if he is in decline or not. Let's hope not, but the stats are what they are. In 2016 he's been below league average 1B.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/po.../true/minpa/275

 

He's really not that far off, and given his recent track record and historical numbers I guess I'm willing to give Jose Abreu the benefit of the doubt.

 

I think that he's certainly capable of moving his WAR up from 1.2 to 1.4 and his OPS up from .770 to .785 in the next 7 weeks, which I suppose would be about league average 1B.

 

I think he'll finish with 22 HR, .283ish BA, .790-.800 OPS. A down year, but if that's the worst we get from Jose he's far from the problem here.

[Hatchetman]

I'm seeing Abreu's WAR at 0.0. Regardless we need him to be top 5-8, not average.

[bmags]

My position is that Jose Abreu has declined. While I would certainly take an .850 OPS from him, it's not exactly the .960 6 WAR player we imagined at the end of 2014 when we accelerated our rebuild into oblivion. I'm open to the idea that him being distanced from his family has caused this steady decline, because being separated from your family in a completely new city with the pressures of a baseball player could feasibly cause this.

 

But, I don't know how you could be both incredulous that baseball players personal issues could affect their play meaningfully and decide that Jose Abreu has not declined because of fun with sample sizes.

 

Abreu may be fine next year, but this is 3rd straight year of meaningful decline. A .780 OPS first baseman who can't play first base is not a part ofa core. I'm hopeful this is just because of personal reasons, because if not, then it's going to be all the more sad when we sign Jason Castro and trade for a pitcher and say we are going for it in 2017.

[Dick Allen]

My position is that Jose Abreu has declined. While I would certainly take an .850 OPS from him, it's not exactly the .960 6 WAR player we imagined at the end of 2014 when we accelerated our rebuild into oblivion. I'm open to the idea that him being distanced from his family has caused this steady decline, because being separated from your family in a completely new city with the pressures of a baseball player could feasibly cause this.

 

But, I don't know how you could be both incredulous that baseball players personal issues could affect their play meaningfully and decide that Jose Abreu has not declined because of fun with sample sizes.

 

Abreu may be fine next year, but this is 3rd straight year of meaningful decline. A .780 OPS first baseman who can't play first base is not a part ofa core. I'm hopeful this is just because of personal reasons, because if not, then it's going to be all the more sad when we sign Jason Castro and trade for a pitcher and say we are going for it in 2017.

How can it be his third straight year of meaningful decline? It's only his 3 year. Did he decline before he started?

[bmags]

How can it be his third straight year of meaningful decline? It's only his 3 year. Did he decline before he started?

 

Great point Dick. Add this to your mantle.

[Dick Allen]

Great point Dick. Add this to your mantle.

Nice retort. Can't stand being wrong I guess, but according to you his rookie year where he was Rookie of the Year and 4th in MVP voting was a decline.

 

 

[bmags]

Why are you upset Dick? I love your meaningful additions to conversations.

[Dick Allen]

Why are you upset Dick? I love your meaningful additions to conversations.

You're the one who is upset. I am just pointing out saying in decline 3 straight years is inaccurate.

 

I guess accuracy isn't meaningful when you post.

[Greg Hibbard]

My position is that Jose Abreu has declined. While I would certainly take an .850 OPS from him, it's not exactly the .960 6 WAR player we imagined at the end of 2014 when we accelerated our rebuild into oblivion. I'm open to the idea that him being distanced from his family has caused this steady decline, because being separated from your family in a completely new city with the pressures of a baseball player could feasibly cause this.

 

But, I don't know how you could be both incredulous that baseball players personal issues could affect their play meaningfully and decide that Jose Abreu has not declined because of fun with sample sizes.

 

Abreu may be fine next year, but this is 3rd straight year of meaningful decline. A .780 OPS first baseman who can't play first base is not a part ofa core. I'm hopeful this is just because of personal reasons, because if not, then it's going to be all the more sad when we sign Jason Castro and trade for a pitcher and say we are going for it in 2017.

 

Ok, so after one rookie season, you expected Jose Abreu to be able to be a .960 OPS player and a steady 6 WAR?

 

That would have made him one of the top 15-20 sluggers in baseball history. I'm not sure a single rookie season ought to earn that kind of expectation.

 

Jose Abreu could be in decline, sure. However, all of us who follow the game have seen, hundreds of times, that there are rookies who come out and put up great numbers, and once the league adjusts to them, they experience some decline. One needs look no farther than Gordon Beckham to find an example of this.

 

I'm inclined to believe the 2015 version of Jose Abreu is much, much closer to the "true" version, and that his rookie year was simply off the charts because the league hadn't made those adjustments they would make in the following year. Every rookie has holes in his game that haven't been exposed yet. Jose's holes are that he doesn't have great patience with pitches outside of the zone, and can be fooled on breaking balls badly. This has been exposed this year, particularly. I won't argue that defensively, he's been a liability. I have no problem shifting him to DH eventually, as we currently don't really have one.

 

Still, an .850-.860 OPS player is nothing to sneeze at. I'd take numbers resembling Bernie Williams, Wade Boggs, George Brett any day of the week. And yes, Adam Dunn fits into that .850ish career range too, but Adam Dunn was a great run producer for a long time before we got a hold of him and he went south.

 

And again, I'm not trying to offer any explanation as to why he had an off April and May, and didn't hit a homer in July. However, I think it's very, very wrong for several posters to enter this thread and be sanctimonious about how hard it is to be away from your kid when there is absolutely zero evidence that this is the reason why he's "in decline." I also would reiterate that it's ludicrous for us to try to find reasons to explain these things away, other than s*** happens and in baseball there are streaks. That's all we can really know.

 

I do think it's much more likely that the 6 months of 2015 and past 2.5 months of 2016 paint a very consistent career picture for Jose Abreu, one that is a happy medium between his white-hot 2014 rookie year and his 2016 spring slump.

 

I could be wrong, as well.

Edited August 9, 2016 by Greg Hibbard

[southsider2k5]

You're the one who is upset. I am just pointing out saying in decline 3 straight years is inaccurate.

 

I guess accuracy isn't meaningful when you post.

 

lol, you really want someone to argue with you. Even when they don't you turn it into one.

[Dick Allen]

lol, you really want someone to argue with you. Even when they don't you turn it into one.

OK. All I pointed out was 3 straight years of decline is inaccurate. 2 straight years of decline is accurate. But nice to see you want to get involved.

 

I know you have never pointed out a post not being accurate.

Edited August 9, 2016 by Dick Allen