Jose Abreu

[Hatchetman]

oh boy you know things are bad when Dick and ss2k5 are quarreling.

[southsider2k5]

OK. All I pointed out was 3 straight years of decline is inaccurate. 2 straight years of decline is accurate. But nice to see you want to get involved.

 

I know you have never pointed out a post not being accurate.

 

Sure. 3 posts ago. Even after he agreed with you, it was turned into being mad or something ridiculous to keep it going. This is the kind of unnecessary stuff that just grinds the board to a halt. We got it, move on.

[bmags]

Ok, so after one rookie season, you expected Jose Abreu to be able to be a .960 OPS player and a steady 6 WAR?

 

That would have made him one of the top 15-20 sluggers in baseball history. I'm not sure a single rookie season ought to earn that kind of expectation.

 

Jose Abreu could be in decline, sure. However, all of us who follow the game have seen, hundreds of times, that there are rookies who come out and put up great numbers, and once the league adjusts to them, they experience some decline. One needs look no farther than Gordon Beckham to find an example of this.

 

I'm inclined to believe the 2015 version of Jose Abreu is much, much closer to the "true" version, and that his rookie year was simply off the charts because the league hadn't made those adjustments they would make in the following year. Every rookie has holes in his game that haven't been exposed yet. Jose's holes are that he doesn't have great patience with pitches outside of the zone, and can be fooled on breaking balls badly. This has been exposed this year, particularly. I won't argue that defensively, he's been a liability. I have no problem shifting him to DH eventually, as we currently don't really have one.

 

Still, an .850-.860 OPS player is nothing to sneeze at. I'd take numbers resembling Bernie Williams, Wade Boggs, George Brett any day of the week. And yes, Adam Dunn fits into that .850ish career range too, but Adam Dunn was a great run producer for a long time before we got a hold of him and he went south.

 

And again, I'm not trying to offer any explanation as to why he had an off April and May, and didn't hit a homer in July. However, I think it's very, very wrong for several posters to enter this thread and be sanctimonious about how hard it is to be away from your kid when there is absolutely zero evidence that this is the reason why he's in decline. I also would reiterate that it's ludicrous for us to try to find reasons to explain these things away, other than s*** happens and in baseball there are streaks. That's all we can really know.

 

I do think it's much more likely that the 6 months of 2015 and past 2.5 months of 2016 paint a very consistent career picture for Jose Abreu, one that is a happy medium between his white-hot 2014 rookie year and his 2016 spring slump.

 

I could be wrong, as well.

 

I don't disagree with you in theory. Though I don't think questioning whether personal issues are to blame for contributing to his decline is a stretch. How much it contributes is impossible to know.

 

I think .850 is more likely who he is than .960 OPS. But for our team construction where we consistently throw out the bare minimum required to win 88 games if all goes well, that's not enough. .850 makes him the 10th best 1st baseman offensively, but defensively he's quite bad.

 

That doesn't mean he's a trash player, he is a normal player most good teams have in positions. But the Sox didn't need normal from Abreu. They needed a star, especially when we get the production we get out of DH.

 

But what percentage would you put that Jose Abreu is an .850 OPS player next year? I wouldn't put it higher than 50% anymore. If he can chase his home run total and power numbers up to an .800 OPS at the end of the year I'll revise that up. But this year has been a gut punch.

Edited August 9, 2016 by bmags

[Dick Allen]

Sure. 3 posts ago. Even after he agreed with you, it was turned into being mad or something ridiculous to keep it going. This is the kind of unnecessary stuff that just grinds the board to a halt. We got it, move on.

No he gave an add this to your mantle comment.

 

[iamshack]

Sure. 3 posts ago. Even after he agreed with you, it was turned into being mad or something ridiculous to keep it going. This is the kind of unnecessary stuff that just grinds the board to a halt. We got it, move on.

The great thing about this is that this is exactly the type of snarky bs that bmags would post about what someone else said.

[bmags]

OK. All I pointed out was 3 straight years of decline is inaccurate. 2 straight years of decline is accurate. But nice to see you want to get involved.

 

I know you have never pointed out a post not being accurate.

 

Edit: we're moving on. I'm moving on. Back to how nobody cares about children.

Edited August 9, 2016 by bmags

[southsider2k5]

No he gave an add this to your mantle comment.

 

 

We got it, move on.

[Dick Allen]

We got it, move on.

LOL

[HeGone7]

OK. All I pointed out was 3 straight years of decline is inaccurate. 2 straight years of decline is accurate. But nice to see you want to get involved.

 

I know you have never pointed out a post not being accurate.

 

Can we all compromise on 2.5 years? Since really it was one great half that has gone down followed by solid or disappointing hitting for your most important hitter.

 

Last year was a solid season but that first half of 2014 is what people want/expect. Really, it's what this team needed if they were going to have had a shot.

 

Unfortunately, it's not coming back. And this season is an epic failure for him, regardless of where he ends up statistically. Boosting your power numbers in September off call-ups won't change the fact we were absent of a 3 hitter until August.

 

He is by far and away the biggest disappointment on this squad. Which may be a product of that one great half. You built around him, got him protection and guys around him in the order have played pretty well, or at least done their part. The rest of the lineup was trash but no one expected miracles from Lawrie, the catching duo, Jackson, or the lack of DH we run out there.

 

I'm not sure if he is done but I'd certainly cut bait if I can. Either that, or we accept that he is a role player and go find some stars.

 

[Hatchetman]

He could return to form. He's useful to have around in his present state, but I wish it were at DH, not 1B.

[Dick Allen]

I see no reason to think he is just going to get worse and worse. The Sox almost gave Cespedes $100 million or so, he went from .861 to .737 to .751 his first 3 years of OPS. 2 years not even as good as this year's Jose. Obvioulsy more worth defensively, but he followed those up with an .870 and a .910. Of course he is playing for a contract these seasons.

 

It would be interesting to see where Abreu would be if he was in the middle of a consistent offense. Of course, this season, he's one of the reasons they aren't consistent. I still think the bat is elite.

[Jose Abreu]

All I learned from this thread is there are people who think that Lawrie's last name isn't pronounced lorrie lmao

[OmarComing25]

Can we all compromise on 2.5 years? Since really it was one great half that has gone down followed by solid or disappointing hitting for your most important hitter.

2014 1st half: 166 wRC+

2014 2nd half: 168 wRC+

 

Despite the drop in homeruns, he was actually a better hitter in the 2nd half of 2014.

[Jose Abreu]

2014 2nd half Abreu was must-watch T.V. He was getting hit after hit after hit.

[Jose Abreu]

Also, 2015 Abreu was good too. I don't understand why anyone is disappointed with that production.

[Jose Abreu]

THANK YOU!!

 

It's beyond me people are using this argument. I feel like I'm listening to a Pardon My Take Podcast on Barstool.

 

 

Also, not to get the last word. I'll continue to read the board and appreciate the level-headed posts. But I can't post in a Sox downturn --- a number of posters grasp at straws and throw out ridiculous takes on what this team needs to do. Maybe we should sign Tim Tebow .............

 

Also my hoping for 2 for 98 is not necessarily a bad thing - it would probably help us get a protected draft pick, hah

And I actually am a strong, diehard Sox fan - a dumb one, but a diehard one. I've had season tickets every year since graduating college. I watch 130+ games a year and never mind any of that.... I understand the game. Go back and read my posts if you want - they generally are pretty thought through.

 

 

So with all that see y'all next year. For those who post thoughtful, fact checked and based statements and use that information to develop and share insight -- THANK YOU and that is the reason I'll still read this board.

 

The others? You're the reason I'll get up out of my seats and move so I don't have to hear about how Brett "Lorrie" and "Tom" Anderson make a great infield. Thanks for being a fan - but get it together.

We'll see if you actually do leave, though. Only poster who actually followed through on leaving lately was LDF.

 

Also, Lorrie is the correct pronunciation of Brett Lawrie's last name...

[bmags]

Also, 2015 Abreu was good too. I don't understand why anyone is disappointed with that production.

 

It was good. It's ultimately not his fault that the team needed elite production from him, but now with it being unclear that Abreu is a top 10 1b it's hard to see how the front office plans to get the offense improved enough to win with this staff.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Jose Abreu last 16 games at U.S. Cellular Field (through 5th inning tonight)

.491/.540/.818, 13 Runs, 5 HR, 13 RBI #WhiteSox

 

Is that good?

[The Mighty Mite]

Good to see him coming around but where was he when we needed him?

[harkness99]

Good to see him coming around but where was he when we needed him?

 

He really is so important to us winning and losing...

 

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Good to see him coming around but where was he when we needed him?

 

The Sox would most likely not be very much better even with Abreu hitting better. Without a consistent 3,4,5 in the rotation and injuries to the pen the Sox have done OK to hang around .500. With Rodon pitching much better now and Jose hitting better and with Morneau the offense is now better and so is 3/5 of the starters but the bullpen is still a mess. A messy bullpen can undo quality starts and better hitting in a hurry.

Edited August 24, 2016 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

The Sox would most likely not be very much better even with Abreu hitting better. Without a consistent 3,4,5 in the rotation and injuries to the pen the Sox have done OK to hang around .500. With Rodon pitching much better now and Jose hitting better and with Morneau the offense is now better and so is 3/5 of the starters but the bullpen is still a mess. A messy bullpen can undo quality starts and better hitting in a hurry.

The complete lack of a no. 5 starter this year cannot be understated. In games started by Danks or Shields, the White Sox are 5-13. Even if they got average production out of that spot (8-8), they would be a respectable 4 games over .500 and if they got good production out of that spot (11-7), they would be competing for a playoff spot at 8 games over .500.

 

All the more reason why they need Shields to be above average next season in order to compete for the playoffs since it appears Fulmer still needs more seasoning.

[southsider2k5]

That makes three homers since his son came state side

[southsider2k5]

On a more serious note though...

 

in August, Abreu has gone from a .738 OPS to .796 now. He is back to an OPS+ of 117 after 134 last year. His OBP is now only .006 under last year.

[Y2Jimmy0]

The Sox would most likely not be very much better even with Abreu hitting better. Without a consistent 3,4,5 in the rotation and injuries to the pen the Sox have done OK to hang around .500. With Rodon pitching much better now and Jose hitting better and with Morneau the offense is now better and so is 3/5 of the starters but the bullpen is still a mess. A messy bullpen can undo quality starts and better hitting in a hurry.

 

 

Completely disagree here. If Abreu were his typical self, the Sox would be .500 or better IMO. So many games when he just didn't do anything when they needed more. This version of Jose, Morneau in the lineup all season, and Ajax healthy, this team would be right around where most thought they'd be, which is a few games over .500.