JUGGERNAUT Posted September 21, 2003 Share Posted September 21, 2003 The last step of course is the $: Rotation: 1-top 20 = (Colon/New) 10MIL 2-top 20 = Buerhle 5MIL 3-top 30 = E-LO 3.5MIL 4-top 30 = Garland 3MIL 5-top 30 = new guy (no more F'g experiments) 3MIL Tot Rotation: 20MIL Lineup: 1-RAlomar/Vina (top 50) 4MIL 2-Renteria (top 20) 6MIL 3-Frank (top 20) 6MIL 4-Jurrasic (top 20) 6MIL 5-CLee (top 25) 6MIL 6-JDrew (top 20) 4MIL 7-Crede (top 50) .5MIL 8-new guy (top 30) 3MIL 9-SAlomar/Olivo (top 50B) 1.5MIL Tot Lineup: 37MIL If Vina is cheaper, go with Vina. Bullpen: Marte 1B,4B,42C, ml - top 10B: 1MIL KW got real lucky here. Ride him as long as you can. Allow him to play Winter ball & AFL to tryout as a 5th starter. Give him a few spot starts in ST. If he succeeds I'd give him the 5th spot. He'd make an ideal 5th because, he could still be very useful in the BP during those times when there is no need for a 5th. Gordon B7,C46,C11. - top 20B : 3MIL The thing about Gordon is his durability. He's not getting any younger so I don't think his price will be as high as some think. You're talking about a guy who's logged B level innings once in 4 yrs since he was out completely in 00. I think we can afford him. Wunsch C4,C44,C50,B12 = top C10 : 1MIL Wunsch should be very cheap. His lack of innings but decent performance makes him a keeper. Koch B86, B15, B57, B16 - top B20 : 6MIL I don't think we'll be able to trade him, but there is at least a pattern of him bouncing back after a bad year. Wright B82, A34, B108 - top B50 : .5MIL I think we owe it to Danny to give him a BP spot. Schow B25, B55, A29, A27 - top A30, B30 : 3MIL Sully B23, B102, B35, B16 - top B30 If we can only afford 1 I go with Schow. He's proven his effectiveness both as a starter & a reliever. I think we can give Schow a chance for the 5th spot in ST. Tot BP: 10-12MIL Tot Team: 67-69MIL, add another 3 for bench players. Pare off 3MIL in BP & 8th lineup guy. That fits us under 70MIL with the best shot to win the div in 2004. We will have to go young at both spots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSteve Posted September 21, 2003 Share Posted September 21, 2003 JUGGERNAUT You've posted a lot of stuff.....but I have no idea what any of it means. 20A? 4B? All his stuff is so confusing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSteve Posted September 21, 2003 Share Posted September 21, 2003 Marte 1B,4B,42C, ml - top 10B: 1MIL KW got real lucky here. Ride him as long as you can. Allow him to play Winter ball & AFL to tryout as a 5th starter. Give him a few spot starts in ST. If he succeeds I'd give him the 5th spot. He'd make an ideal 5th because, he could still be very useful in the BP during those times when there is no need for a 5th. You want Marte to try to be our 5th starter? Could he do it? I have no idea what any those numbers after his name mean. I think I'd like Marte out of the pen. He's a stud reliever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whitesox247 Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 C-Javy Lopez 1B-Todd Helton 2B-Marcus Giles SS-ARod 3B-Pujols LF-Bonds CF-Jim Edmonds RF-Sheff DH-Delgado Mark Prior Jason Schmidt Pedro Martinez Brandon Webb Rich Harden CL-Eric Gagne setup-John Smoltz But realistcally, we're cleaning house. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whitesox61382 Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 "First off, I think the guys we need back are Everett, Sullivan, Thomas, Gordon, Loaiza." Why do the Sox NEED Everett back? The Sox entire roster is filled with power hitting corner outfield/1B/DH type players, so why waste 9-10+M/year on another when that money can be better spent on other positions and bigger needs. If you are going to shell out 9-10M/year to try and keep someone, than spend it on Colon his value to the team is much greater then Everett's. Sullivan cost to much to keep. 3+M/year for a right handed middle reliever is stupid. The Sox could probably get similar production for a guy like Ginter for about 300K/year. Keep in mind that the Sox are cutting payroll, so a 3+Myear middle reliever is certainly not a need. I wouldn't mind seeing the Sox deal either Thomas or Konerko. Konerko is more likely to be traded because of his age. I don't think either Thomas or Konerko are a NEED, but I wouldn't mind seeing Thomas back in a Sox uniform. I agree that Gordon is a NEED. If you are going to spend 3+M/year on a reliever, than I would much rather it be Gordon then Sullivan. Loiaza is a semi-need. The Sox will probably pick up his option based on the year he had and the fact that they will probably lose Colon. However, I have a bad feeling that he will pitch more like the Loiaza of older rather then the new one. VERY RARELY do sub-par starting pitchers all of a sudden see the light at 31 and turn into a dominating pitcher. Still I think Loiaza should and will be back. "Guys we should lose are Valentin, Koch, Daubach, Alomar, Alomar Jr., and Manuel." I wouldn't mind seeing Valentin gone, but only if the Sox can find a decent replacement. I am sorry but Tajada and the Japanese SS aren't options. Both will cost 8-10+M/year and the Sox aren't going to shell out that kind of money this offseason. Besides Tajada is overrated. Check out his numbers. He had a fluke year last year and now some team is going to overpay for him. I also still have my questions about Japanese hitters adjusting to major league pitching. If Valentin can provide the solid D that he is this year, than he really isn't all that bad of an option. Sure I would prefer a guy that can hit .300, but the fact of the matter is there aren't that many quality SS. I would love to trade Koch, but it isn't likely. I wouldn't mind seeing Daubach back, especially if Thomas or Konerko leave. I agree that the Alomar brothers aren't what they use to be, but once again it becomes a matter of finding a better option at 2nd. If Manuel isn't fired this year I am going to be one pissed off mother f***er. "Loaiza (still our best, no matter what) Buehrle Garland Pacheco?/Yofu?/Cotts?/Diaz? Schoeneweis (will get his shot at our rotation in 2004. Liked what I saw today.)" Do you really think this is a good enough rotation to contend for the division? Like I said before Loiaza is anything but a sure thing next year. Buehrle is solid. Garland has taken some steps forward, but still has a ways to go. Schoey has always struggled when in the starting rotation. And the last spot is given to an inexperienced rookie. I just don't see this as a rotation that can contend for a division. "Lineup SS Christian Guzman (throw $15 for 2 or 3 years, he's worth it.) LF Carlos Lee 1B Frank Thomas (maybe a new manager would realize how much this helps Thomas) RF Magglio Ordonez CF Carl Everett (in a perfect world, Beltran. But atleast Everett is a competitor) DH Paul Konerko 3B Joe Crede 2B Aaron Miles C Miguel Olivo" 5-7.5M/year is too much for Guzman. He has only hit above .275 once in his career. He has drawn over 30 walks in a season only once. And he gets caught stealling too much. Guzman really isn't that good and I would be VERY surprised if he got over 5M/year. The one thing he does have is potential. He is only 25 and has the tools to be a very good SS. I would rather have him then Valentin, but for the right price. Like I said before I think resigning Everett isn't a good idea. The guy will give me a heartattack if I have to put up with his D in CF. He might be the worst defensive CF in the game, and thats a position that you can't afford to be weak defensively. If you are going to spend 10M/year on a guy do it on Colon, because you projected rotation is very weak and the offense would be alright without Everett and someone like Rowand in CF. I would also love to get Beltran, but you are looking at 10-12M/year contract in the near future. I also don't like Miles at 2nd. I have a feeling that he is nothing more than a career minor leaguer or a Tony G at best. His D is terrible, he has no speed, and he doesn't walk. I really think Hummel has the potential to be a very good 2nd baseman, but not Miles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUGGERNAUT Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 I did make reference to Sag ratings but let me list the definitions of A, B, & C. A level arms: 162+ ip B level arms: 53-161 ip C level arms: 0-52 ip A level is starters only. No reliever reaches A. A level bats: 502+ plate appearances B level bats: 162-501 plate appearances C level bats: 0-161 plate appearances A level is for core lineup guys only. No bench or role players reach A. With that in mind, recall: 1-top 20A = (Colon/New) 10MIL 2-top 20A = Buerhle 5MIL 3-top 30A = E-LO 3.5MIL 4-top 30A = Garland 3MIL 5-top 30A = new guy (no more F'g experiments) 3MIL Tot rotation: 25MIL About the 5th starter, both Marte & Schow qualify. Marte 1B,4B,42C, ml - top 10B: 1MIL Schow B25, B55, A29, A27 - top A30, B30 : 3MIL What this means is that Marte is statistically the best reliever in the AL this year. He may not win the Rolaids Man of Relief reward, but he's got the best #'s. Can he make it as a starter? Durability is the only question. He's effective against both LH & RH bats. Marte 2K3 RH: (.196A, 581 OPS); LH: (.168A, .471 OPS) Marte 2K2 RH: (.252A, 675 OPS); LH: (.149A, .455 OPS) Marte's ranked in the top 5 for AL relievers 2 straight yrs because of his ever improving effectiveness vs RH. He definitely deserves a shot at the 5th spot. Schow ranked in the top 30 in the AL as a starter in 00, 01. That's better than Garland has ever ranked. Schow 2K3 RH: (.298A, 758 OPS); LH: (.228A, 572 OPS) Schow 2K2 RH: (.290A, 834 OPS); LH: (.202A, 609 OPS) Schow 2K1 RH: (.304A, 843 OPS); LH: (.209A, 517 OPS) Schow 2K0 RH: (.271A, 784 OPS); LH: (.294A, 774 OPS) Scott has always proven to be a battler as a starter. As a starter he's 23-27 in 74 starts or 31%W, 36.5%L 3 yr avg (00-02) (820 OPS vs RH, 625 vs LH) Garland: As a starter he's 31-38 in 92 starts or 33.7%W, 41%L 3 yr avg (00-02) (742 OPS vs RH, 823 vs LH) Garland 2K3: RH: (.235A, 707 OPS); LH: (.279A, 797 OPS) Schow has just as much right to be in the rotation as Garland. Lineup: 1-RAlomar/Vina (top 50) 4MIL 2-Renteria (top 20) 6MIL 3-Frank (top 20) 6MIL 4-Jurrasic (top 20) 6MIL 5-CLee (top 25) 6MIL 6-JDrew (top 20) 4MIL 7-Crede (top 50) .5MIL 8-new guy (top 50) 1MIL 9-SAlomar/Olivo (top 50B) 1.5MIL Tot Lineup: 35MIL If Vina is cheaper, go with Vina. The 8th spot in the lineup should be a guy with potential to be in the top 50 list of hitters in the AL. Once again Thomas is not tradeable. Nobody is going to take on 24/3 for Thomas. So he's definitely going to be with the SOX if that's what he wants. Now if he's having a top 10 MVP season in 2K4, the SOX might be able to ship him. Bullpen: I've got 4MIL betw Schow & Marte. One of them will be in the BP & the other will serve both the 5th spot & some BP when a 5th starter is not needed. Koch B86, B15, B57, B16 - top B20 : 6MIL I don't think we'll be able to trade him, but there is at least a pattern of him bouncing back after a bad year. I hope he will be in the top 20 list of relievers in the AL. Wunsch C4,C44,C50,B12 = top C10 : 1MIL Wunsch should be very cheap. His lack of innings but decent performance makes him a keeper. I expect Wunsch to be able to pitch more than 53 innings next year & finish in the top 20 list of relievers. Wright B82, A34, B108 - top B50 : .5MIL I think we owe it to Danny to give him a BP spot. Danny's not accomplished really anything at any level, but the belief is that he will excel as a reliever. Gordon B7,C46,C11. - top 20B : 3MIL The thing about Gordon is his durability. He's not getting any younger so I don't think his price will be as high as some think. You're talking about a guy who's logged B level innings once in 4 yrs since he was out completely in 00. I think we can afford him. Tot BP: 10-12MIL Tot Team: 70-72MIL, add another 3 for bench players. Crap: I'm over 70MIL. Gordon goes & Jurassic might have to as well. Stupid budget. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerbaho-WG Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 Mine, just starters, lewl! 1B:Konerko 2B:R. Alomar SS:Valentin 3B:Crede LF:Lee CF:Reed/Borchard/Rowand RF:Ordonez C:Olivo SP:Loaiza SP:Buehrle SP:Garland SP:Schoeneweis SP:Wright/Anyone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUGGERNAUT Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 For those thinking Koney is not tradeable, guess again: Koney's accomplishments: Ranked 16th in level A bats in AL in 2002. Ranked 24th in level A bats in AL in 2001. Ranked 31st in level A bats in AL in 2000. Ranked 39th in level B bats in AL in 2003. 1 bad yr in 4 does not greatly dim a players value. Especially when he's had great success in the 2nd 1/2 of 2003. vs LH: 1048 OPS, vs RH 576 OPS Pre-AS: 567 OPS, Post-AS: 921 OPS 3 yr (00-02): vs LH 807 OPS, vs RH 864 OPS So if you are STL & you've got a chance to trade Renteria+JDrew+arm for Maggs+Koney, you look at Paul's numbers vs RH's over his career much more so than 2K3. Paul's 1048 vs LH in 2K3 is very promising. At 27 yrs old, Konerko is very tradeable. I'm hoping he finishes strong over the next 9 gms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heads22 Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 Why do you want so badly to get rid of Magglio? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aboz56 Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 I really think Hummel has the potential to be a very good 2nd baseman, but not Miles. It's too bad we no longer have Hummel. We traded him to Cincy, in case you missed it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUGGERNAUT Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 I DEMAND THE F'g 6MIL for Jurassic! If he can be signed for 6MIL, I demand the SOX pay the $$$ & go over 60MIL. Look at his monthly stats: 2K3: Apr 1163 OPS May 893 OPS Jun 662 OPS July 667 OPS Aug 1042 OPS Sep 811 OPS WE'VE ALWAYS HAD GUYS that EXCEL in JUN, JUL to pick up CARL's SLACK. WE'VE NEVER HAD GUYS TO GET IN DONE IN THE TOUGH MONTHS OF MAY & AUG. IF CARL WAS ON THIS TEAM ALL YR, WE ARE STILL FIGHTING FOR THE DIVISION! Look at his (00-02) monthly avgs: Apr 854 OPS May 816 OPS Jun 921 OPS Jul 755 OPS Aug 855 OPS Spe 820 OPS Those numbers rank with any player on the SOX roster the past 4 yrs in consistency. They also show that Jun & Jul were more of an aberation than the norm. Jurassic makes a difference! How many games did Jurrasic's rbi & run total make a difference in the margin of victory? 36 gms. There were 36 gms Jurrasic played this yr betw TX & the SOX in which the margin of victory was w/in 2 runs of Jurrasic's total RBI+R for that game. In the final MIN series, Jurrasic had 2R+4RBI+1HR. That's 5 of the 7 runs scored in the series. These are the kind of guys you keep. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUGGERNAUT Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 Why do you want so badly to get rid of Magglio? I have nothing against Maggs but his salary. Does he deserve it? Yes. Can we afford it? No. It's simply the numbers. For what Maggs+Koney produce & what they cost we simply can't afford them. We can't get rid of Koney without Maggs in the pkg. There's no team on the planet that will take Koney alone. Maggs will eat a min of 22% of the payroll next yr. That's assuming the SOX field a 65MIL team. What does is production equate to each month for the SOX? Apr 849 OPS, 13R, 18RBI May 855 OPS, 14R, 15RBI Jun 899 OPS, 18R, 13RBI Jul 1241 OPS, 22R, 24RBI Aug 882 OPS, 18R, 12RBI Sep 911 OPS 6R, 10RBI I don't have the team's month breakdowns (ESPN is too slow), but I can give you the team's monthly avg & how Maggs compares: 2K3: 738R, 715RBI .. monthly avg : 123R, 119RBI Maggs month %: Apr 10.5%R, 15%RBI May 11.4%R, 12.6%RBI Jun 14.6%R, 11%RBI Jul 17.9%R, 20.2%RBI Aug 14.6%R, 10.1%RBI There's only 7 gms left in Sep, & Maggs is way below in R but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. Sep 10.5%R, 11%RBI Even if you were to make the argument that his % of offensive is worth the % of total payroll (essentially negating the value of pitchers), the best you can argue is that Maggs performance has been worth 14%RBI, 13%R or roughly 14% of the payroll or about 9MIL. How about Maggs over 3 yr (00-02): Apr 18R, 16RBI, 12.7%R, 11.7%RBI May 15R, 18RBI, 10.6%R, 13.3%RBI Jun 18R, 24RBI, 13%R, 17%RBI Jul 16R, 20RBI, 11%R, 14.5%RBI Aug 17R, 21RBI, 12.3%R, 15%RBI Sep 18R, 23RBI, 12.5%R, 16.4%RBI Maggs 2K3 month %: Apr 10.5%R, 15%RBI May 11.4%R, 12.6%RBI Jun 14.6%R, 11%RBI Jul 17.9%R, 20.2%RBI Aug 14.6%R, 10.1%RBI Statistically there is no reason to believe that Maggs is going to avg more than 13% of the R, 14% of the RBI's on avg per month for the SOX. Again that's worth at best about 9MIL with respect to the SOX budget. If the SOX had a scrubs budget of 86MIL then he'd be worth at best 12MIL. If the SOX had BOS budget of 100MIL then Maggs would be worth at best 14MIL. The bottom line is for the smaller revenue teams you must get more performance for less cost to compete. Ordonez ranks the 40th best bat in MLB this year. He ranks 16th best in the AL. For 14.5mil you need a guaranteed top 10 player. Period. Sagagin uses a Markov chain & intangibles that basically wt's Ordonez's carreer #'s a little better. He has him at 8th best in AL. I would say for 14.5mil you need a guaranteed top 5 player in the AL in Sag's RPG rankings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heads22 Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 You can't measure heart with stats. He brings that and a lot more to the team. Keep him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUGGERNAUT Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 Price vs Performance (Sag RPG): 2003 rk Player Salary 1 Ramirez 17.2MIL 2 Delgado 17.5MIL 3 A-ROD 22MIL 4 Nixon 4MIL 5 Mueller 2.1MIL 6 Giambi 11.5MIL 7 Martinez 4MIL 8 Ordonez 9MIL 9 Posada 8MIL 10 Thomas 5MIL Now I'm going to list the top 10 to show you how much variance exists yr to yr. rk Player 2002 1 Ramirez 2 Thome 3 Giambi 4 A-ROD 5 Sweeney 6 Ordonez 7 Williams B 8 Palmeiro 9 Delgado 10 Olerud rk Player 2001 1 Giambi 2 Thome 3 A-ROD 4 Alomar R 5 Martinez E 6 Ramirez 7 Delgado 8 Palmeiro 9 Gonzo 10 Boone rk Player 2000 1 Giambi 2 Delgado 3 Ramirez 4 Thomas 5 Nomar 6 A-ROD 7 Martinez E 8 Glaus 9 Erstad 10 Posada Here's another way to assess the top 10 $$$ value. Take the avg of the top 10 & the avg RPG, & then adjust accordingly. Avg Salary in top 10: 10.1MIL Avg RPG in top 10: 7.09 RPG = predicted runs per game. If every spot in the lineup was a player of equal performance to Maggs, the SOX RPG would be 7.59. In theory, if you weighted the RPG of every SOX player based on his plate appearances, & then averaged all the players weighted RPG you should come very close to the SOX avg RPG this year. Maggs = 7.59 RPG. 10.74MIL Thomas = 7.54 RPG. 10.67MIL Stop the b****ing over Thomas. He was a good price vs performance player in 2K3. This also shows how much Manny is overpaid. Manny = 8.47 RPG. 11.98MIL. BOS overpaid. A-ROD = 8.16 RPG. 11.54MIL. What a dumb arse Hicks is! Delgado = 8.31 RPG. 11.75MIL. Toronto overpaid. Giambi = 7.81 RPG. 11.05MIL. Real close. Let's take this further to figure out the gap betw the rest of the SOX: Everett = 6.50 RPG. 9.19MIL Lee = 5.83 RPG. 8.24MIL Val = 4.91 RPG. 6.95MIL Crede = 4.52 RPG. 6.39MIL (Don't tell Joe!) RAlom = 4.37 RPG. 6.18MIL This assumes uniform pay in each tier of 10 & that's totally unrealistic in MLB. The proper way to assess the value of each of the 5 is to find the averages. For Everett, you take the avg of pay for rk'g 11-20 & find the avg RPG. Then divide Everett's value = RPG/avg RPG * (avg pay). I'm out of time tonight, so I will just do Everett's: Player RPG Salary Beltran 7.36 6MIL Guillen 7.06 1MIL Wells V 7.00 .5MIL Ortiz D 6.99 1.25MIL Mientz D 6.80 1.75MIL Jeter D 6.68 15.6MIL Boone B 6.67 8MIL Blalock 6.65 .5MIL Huff 6.58 .5MIL Everett 6.50 9.15MIL Beltran ranks 11th, & Everett 20th. Avg pay in this group: 4.425MIL Avg RPG in this group: 6.80 Everett's true value : 4.25MIL It's rare that 6 players in this group will have a salary < 2MIL. So I think a better comparison is to look at those > 2MIL. Avg pay in 5-10 players: 7.95MIL Avg RPG in 5-10 players: 6.735 Everett's true value amongst 5-10 players: 7.67MIL A 6MIL/yr deal for Everett is more than reasonable. His Offensive production was 85.6% that of Maggs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUGGERNAUT Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 What's Lee's true value worth? Lee ranks 31st, so I will compare 25-35. Varitek 6.14 4.7MIL Salmon 6.09 9.9 Young 6.08 6.75 Soriano 6.01 .8 Chavez 5.93 3.7 Catlano 5.89 2.2 CLee 5.83 4.2 Stewart 5.82 6.2 Durazo 5.70 1 Tejada 5.68 5.2 Gerut 5.63 .3 Avg RPG (rk 25-35): 5.89 Avg pay (rk 25-35): 4.086 CLee's true value : 4.04MIL I'd be willing to go 5,6,7,(8,9) to re-sign Lee. 18/3 guaranteed, with (8,9) being club options contingent on Lee's 3rd year. If he ranks in the top 10 in the AL in his 3rd or 4th yr, the club option is 10,11 else 8,9. If the club declines the option, the club can still offer level 1 arbitration if CLee qualifies. Otherwise CLee's a FA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gene Honda Civic Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 1. R. Alomar 2B 2. C. Lee LF 3. F. Thomas DH 4. M. Ordonez RF 5. P. Konerko 1B 6. J. Crede 3B 7. A. Rowand CF 8. C. Guzman/K. Matsui SS 9. M. Olivo/Burke/ramirez Rotation- 1. E. Loiza 2. M. Buhrle 3. S. Shoenwiess 4. J. Garland 5. $$$ Bullpen Closer - D. Marte Set-up - B. Koch - Hopefully comeback player of the year. Lefty Specialist - K. Wunch Righty Specialist - $$$ - Sullivan - Which ever is cheaper - maybe Hawkins Long Relief - D. Wright Inning Eaters - Ginter/Panchea/Munoz/Malone Who won't be back Gordon - too much $$$- although I'd love to keep him - he's nasty Colon - Too much $$$ - not enough production for the $$$ Sullivan - Too much $$$ - Everett - Odd man out - Defensive Liability. Daubach - Never really fit. Valentine - His time here has ended. Without actually putting together the figures, I think this line-up will come in the low $60 MIL range. That leaves some wiggle room to sign free agents to fill the spots vacated. Hopefully There can be a big free agent signing. I'd like to see Colon, Gordon, and Sully back; but i think it may only be possible to keep one. I don't know who else they could bring in. But I don't get paid to do this KW does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUGGERNAUT Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 Crap. After doing Lee's, I realize I didn't do Maggs, Thomas, & Jurassic right. I should really pick a range where they are in the middle. Maggs (rks 3-12) RPG pay A-ROD 8.16 22mil Nixon 8.09 4mil Mueller 7.88 2.1mil Giambi 7.81 11.5MIL Martinez 7.61 4MIL Ordonez 7.59 9MIL Posada 7.58 8MIL Thomas 7.54 5MIL Beltran 7.36 6MIL Guillen 7.06 1MIL Wells V 7.00 .5MIL Avg RPG: 7.61 Avg Pay: 6.65MIL Magg's true value: 6.63MIL Ok, here's what I'm willing to do for Maggs. Re-negotiate his contract to 60/5 in escalation: 10,11,12,(13,14) (13,14) are option yrs. If Maggs is ranked top 10 in AL in 3rd, yr they are guaranteed. A 2 mil bonus for ranking in top 5 in AL in yr's 4, 5. So it's really a 64/5 if Maggs is the player you all say he is. I think that's a very fair contract for what he brings to the SOX yr after yr. Thomas: (rks 5-15) RPG pay Mueller 7.88 2.1mil Giambi 7.81 11.5MIL Martinez 7.61 4MIL Ordonez 7.59 9MIL Posada 7.58 8MIL Thomas 7.54 5MIL Beltran 7.36 6MIL Guillen 7.06 1MIL Wells V 7.00 .5MIL Ortiz D 6.99 1.25MIL Mientz D 6.80 1.75MIL Avg RPG: 7.38 Avg Pay: 4.55MIL Thomas' true value: 4.65MIL Based on Thomas career numbers & month to month consistency, 6MIL for 2K4 is not unreasonable. Certainly the SOX got their $ worth in 2K3. Val (rks 55-60): R Winn 5.14 3.3mil E Hinske 5.12 1mil B Kielty 5.09 .3mil S Spiezo 5.01 4.25mil C Pena 4.99 .3mil J Val 4.91 5mil I'm going to give Val the benefit of the doubt because of his previous yrs & heart on the SOX. Avg RPG: 5.04 Avg Pay: 2.36 J Val's true value: 2.3MIL 1) Do not give him the plate appearances to guar the 5mil option. 2) If he's willing to go 3MIL/yr welcome him back otherwise sayonara. 1 mil bonus for any top 10 ranking. 1 mil bonus for any top 5 ranking. (6-10)/2 yrs. A very fair pkg. Crede's true value as measured vs J Val: Crede RPG 4.52 Avg RPG: 5.04 Avg Pay: 2.36 Crede's true value: 2.11MIL I think he deserves a raise to .5mil at least. R Alomar's true value as measure vs J Val: R Alomar RPG 4.37 Avg RPG: 5.04 Avg Pay: 2.36 R Alomar's true value: 2.04MIL I'm willing to double that for the intangibles he's brought to the team, plus his 3 yr average. If he's willing to take an avg of 5mil a yr he can come back, otherwise sayonara. He had a 4.48 RPG in 2K2, an 8.83 RPG in 2k1, & a 6.67 RPG in 2K. I'm willing to roll the dice on 5mil a yr. I'd offer him 4.5,5.5,(7) for a 17/3 pkg. Option yr contingent on top 30 rank. 1 mil bonus for a top 10 ranking in any yr. Additional 1 mil bonus for a top 5 ranking in any yr. Net pkg is (17-23)/3. A very fair pkg. The theory on these bonuses for Lee, Everett, Alomar, Val, & Maggs. The added offensive production will result in more wins & more fans. The bonuses will pay for themselves. If all 5 of these guys made the bonuses we are talking World Series. I think that's worth an additional 5-10 mil cost each yr. Thomas gets the same thing in his contract right now. Again I would love to keep Maggs, but I don't see anyway to ship Koney w/out pkg'g him with Maggs. Koney was a mistake that must be rectified. We still owe him 17+/2. So let me re-vamp the lineup cost: 1-R Alomar 4.5mil -2B 2-Renteria 6mil - SS 3-Frank 6mil - 1B/DH 4-Jurrasic 6mil - CF/DH 5-CLee (top 25) 5MIL - LF/DH 6-JDrew (top 20) 4MIL - RF/LF 7-Crede (top 50) .5MIL - 3B 8-J Val (top 50) 3mil - 1B/DH/LF/RF 9-SAlomar/Olivo (top 50B) 1.5MIL Tot lineup cost: 29mil Tot rotation cost: 25mil Tot reliever/bench cost: 10-12mil Tot cost: 64-66mil! Tot cost with bonuses betw 68-78mil! You fat F JR, I just assembled you a World Series contender for under 80mil! Work the contracts exactly as I've spec'd out. I did it! You fat F JR! I just assembled you a team that can win the ALC div in 2K4 for under 70mil! So tell KW to get on the horn with STL after the season & build the team I just spec' d out for you! I spent 2 hours more than the love of my life allowed tonight, so she's going to make me reduce my time the rest of the week. I think it was worth it. I don't have to tell you what Renteria & JDrew will bring us in added team speed over Maggs+Koney. Renteria 34SB, JDrew 2SB (3yr avgs: 30SB, 14 SB) You could argue that with added playing time for JD he's a lock for 14SB after putting up 38SB in his first 3 yrs. So that's a 44SB total. Maggs+Koney = 9 this yr, 17 over 3yr avg You can argue at best 17SB for 2K4. That's a net increase of 28SB. This trade instantly makes us the fastest team in the ALC & one of the fastest in the AL. Right now the fastest in the ALC belongs to MIN & we know from first hand experience how that xlats to wins. How about an infield D of : 3B-Crede SS-Renteria 2B-R Alomar 1B-J Val Just think of the F'g range! How about an outfield D of : LF-Lee CF-Everett RF-Drew It's no worse than 2K3, & we get to keep the most improved player D : Lee. Plus now we have Val, Rowand, & Harris for D substitutions at CF, LF, & RF if need be. There's a lot less ground to cover in RF for Val vs CF so I don't think we should rule it out. Plus J Val can still spell Renteria at SS. That lineup makes the SOX better overall in both Off & Def. The rotation makes the SOX better in Def. And the bullpen remains about the same. We add new blood to decent/adequate core blood from 2K3 with Olivo & Crede still serving as the youth movement. The bench is expected to be even better as the best our ml's have to offer will compete with Graff, Harris, Rowand, & Dauby for spots. That's how you infuse the young players into the ML's. Bench time with giving your starters a lot of rest during blowouts. Don't let your starters pad their stats. It keeps their price down. After working this out, I'm BIG time EXCITED over 2OO4! For manager I want Bobby V at Manuel prices or I'm open to other options for proven winners. Candidates: Bobby V. Sciosca Mc Keon J Williams F Robinson Kelly L Bowa Mc Clendon B BOchy T La Russa C Tosca I'm not sure who's available, but if Phil, Hou, & STL fail to make the post-season it's very possible those mgr's will ge the ax. The rest might be worked out in trade or simply contracts expiring. If I had to rank a top 5 based on both avail, price, & X-O's: L Bowa T La Russa J Williams B Val T Kelly Ok. That does it! I'm completely done. All that really remains is contingency plans & the bullpen. I've got a whole off-season to work that out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whitesox61382 Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 It's too bad we no longer have Hummel. We traded him to Cincy, in case you missed it. I know that Hummel was traded. I feel that he could have steped up next year and taken over 2nd instead of overpaying for a declining Alomar to play there next year. I also don't have much confidence in either Harris or Miles to play there fulltime next year. Juggernaut - you are going overboard with this analysis using the sargin stats. Its a good stat, but by no means a great indicator by itself. To be honest with you, your post are very confusing and hard to understand. I feel bad because it seems like you put a lot of work into it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUGGERNAUT Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 For SS, forget Matsui & Guzman. C Guzman rks 82. pay 2.252mil. Previous 3 yrs(00-02): rk'd 85,33,69 You're going to have to pay him 3+mil. So you're saving 3mil & getting 1/2 the player that Renteria is. What's the point? If you can get Matsui great, but you know what it's going to cost. A 10mil min bid, & a 4mil/yr min salary. So the 1st yr is a 14mil cost. Ichiro costs the M's a 12mil bid, & a 4mil/yr salary. A 16mil 1st yr cost. There's no way the SOX are going to play that game. So you're going to save 2mil on Guzman over Val, get 1/2 the O player & still be stuck with Koney. Good luck contending with a rotation of: E-LO, Buerhle, Schow, Garland, & some guy. That min cost of that rotation 15mil. The min cost of a lineup of RAlom, CLee, Thomas, Maggs, Koney, Crede, Rowand, Guzman, Olivo is 38mil. Tot before bench & relievers : 53mil. Min cost for bench & relief: 10-12mil. Tot cost 63mil. No offense, but I like my 2004 SOX team for a cost of 64-66mil MUCH better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUGGERNAUT Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 It's too bad we no longer have Hummel. We traded him to Cincy, in case you missed it. I know that Hummel was traded. I feel that he could have steped up next year and taken over 2nd instead of overpaying for a declining Alomar to play there next year. I also don't have much confidence in either Harris or Miles to play there fulltime next year. Juggernaut - you are going overboard with this analysis using the sargin stats. Its a good stat, but by no means a great indicator by itself. To be honest with you, your post are very confusing and hard to understand. I feel bad because it seems like you put a lot of work into it. Dude, that's why I simplied with simply an overall ranking. Maggs is top 10 in the AL in Sagarin's RPG but 16th overall in traditional Offensive stats. So whether you completely understand the RPG calculations really doesn't matter. What matter's is the cost of these players in comparison to their peers. That's where using the Sag ratings proved worthy. You can argue the value of RPG if you like, but not the comparison of RPG against peer players. I am willing to debate all off-season that Renteria+Drew+arm for Maggs+Koney is a great trade for the SOX. Obviously this is the core for my new+improved SOX team in 2004 for under 70mil. Keep in mind, when you are trying to build a World Series contender for under 70mil you have to crunch the numbers every way you can. It's not going to be a simple analysis. Beane does this with better efficiency than any other GM in the business. His biggest challenge lies ahead. A large number of core players will be moving into big bucks territory. He's going to need another 10-15mil to keep some of them. OAK is definitely making $$$ on the post-season but I don't know if raising post-season prices is going to make up the difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUGGERNAUT Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 I knew I would face resistance in dealing Maggs so I've thought of an alternative to getting Renteria+Drew. This is contingent upon Maggs agreeing to the following new contract: 10,11,12,(13,14) Option yr's dependant upon top 10 ranking in 12mil yr. Each yr 1mil bonus for top 5 ranking. The base pay assumes a top 10 ranking. So the net contract to Maggs is worth 60-65/5. That's betw 12-13mil/yr. That is very fair to Maggs. Now how do we get STL take Koney's 17+/2 yrs? We swap Buerhle for Maggs. Buerhle+Koney for Renteria+Drew+arm. With Maggs retained we don't need Everett & I think Lee has higher potential. How it reflects in the total cost: Trading Maggs+Koney left: Buerhle+Renteria+Drew+Everett=21mil Trading Buerhle+Koney leaves: Maggs@10+Renteria+Drew=20mil We have an extra mil to put towards Buerhle's replacement. So let me re-vamp the lineup cost: 1-R Alomar 4.5mil -2B 2-Renteria 6mil - SS 3-Frank 6mil - 1B/DH 4-Maggs 10mil - RF/DH 5-CLee (top 25) 5MIL - LF/DH 6-JDrew (top 20) 4MIL - CF/1B 7-Crede (top 50) .5MIL - 3B 8-J Val (top 50) 3mil - 1B/DH/LF/RF 9-SAlomar/Olivo (top 50B) 1.5MIL The lineup cost goes up 4mil to 33mil. Koch is 6mil so we're up to 39mil. The rotation is 20mil so we're up to 59mil. Colon 10mil E-LO 3.5mil 3rd 4mil (3mil if Schow) Garland 3mil 5th ??? We still have 5-9mil left for 5th starter, BP, & bench Marte 1mil Wunsch .7mil 3 min wage bench players 1mil Gordon/ (Schow if not a starter) 3mil 3 min wage relievers (Wright, & Co) 1mil We weaken the rotation to keep Maggs, but it's still pretty strong & under 5mil. Gordon is up there in age so I don't know if any one will offer him more than 3mil. Tot Cost: 65mil & this team can still win a division. If all the player meet their bonuses we go the World Series < 80mil. About our 5th starter: If Marte proves he can do it in winter ball or Koch proves he can close again in winter ball, then the 5th spot should be Marte's to lose. The goal is to get Koch back in the closer role. KW can invite some E-LO types to win the job as well. Now please don't argue that we need to keep Koney. He's 1 for 19 in the recent swing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al Lopez Ghost (old) Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 C-Sandy and Olivo again 1B- Rowand 2b- Alomar 3b-Creede SS-Eckstein LF-Jacque Jones CF-Everret Rf-Maggs DH-C.Lee Bench- Willie, Graffy, Miles ( but sometimes back in the minors) then ???? Pitching Mark Colon Ponson E-lo Garland The Pen Wunsche Show Wright Hawkins Marte Flash Thats being Kind of realsitic. You would have Everett and Rowand on the field at the same time, and have Rowand at first? If you must screw around at first base (it looks easier to play than it is and it's no given that just anybody can move there), at least gain some defense in Center by keeping Rowand there and having Jurassic at first. Let me be clear though, Jurassic would cost you games at first base too. Everybody's putting more work into our lineup than the Sox are, I think. Reinsdorf will say to Kenny, give me the best lineup that 58 million dollars will buy. And we'll be mediocre again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Beast Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 DH: Carl Everett (Good bat, lackluster defense) 1B: Paul Konerko (I'd keep him for one more year, see if is as streaky as he was this year) 2B: Robbie Alomar (The man) SS: Kazui Matsui ( ) 3B: Joe Crede RF: Magglio Ordonez CF: Aaron Rowand (He deserves this year, he's been patient, hopefully he doesn't slump as badly as he did last year) LF: Carlos Lee Pitchers 1: Esteban Loaiza 2: Bartolo Colon 3: Mark Buerhle 4: Jon Garland 5: Danny Wright (?) Relief - Scott Schoeneweis - Scott Sullivan - Tom Gordon - Damaso Marte - Latroy Hawkins - Billy Koch - Kelly Wunsch Bench - Tony Graffanino - Willie Harris - Bunch of question marks -Buehrle -Colon -Loaiza -Garland -L. Hernandez -Koch, Hawkins, Marte, Wunsch, Schoenweis, Gordon 1b-Konerko 2b-Alomar ss-Valentin (If clause invoked) but if not I say Graffanino 3b-Crede c-Alomar lf-Lee cf-Rowand rf-Ordonez dh-Thomas Bench: Harris, Daubach, Olivo, Miles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBAHO Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 C- Miguel Olivo 1B - Frank Thomas 2B - Robbie Alomar 3B - Joe Crede SS - Kaz Matsui or David Eckstein LF - Carlos Lee CF - Aaron Rowand RF - Maggilo Orzonez DH - Jacque Jones, Carl Everett Bench Aaron Miles Brian Daubach Sandy Alomar Joe Borchard Tony Graffinino Pitchers 1 - Bartolo Colon 2 - Mark Buerhle 3 - Esteban Loaiza 4 - Jon Garland 5 - Scott Schowenweis, Jon Rauch or Neal Cotts Bullpen Damaso Marte Dan Wright Kelly Wunsch Scott Sullivan Latroy Hawkins The ol Billy Koch not William Koch Flash won't be back Trade Konerko to the O's for a young pitcher e.g Moss or Ainsworth Non tender Jose at all (only plays in big games, not all season) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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