Position Player fWAR: Eaton the 7 Dwarves

[chitownsportsfan]

And one Timmah.

 

Good on Eaton but boy oh boy what a bunch of slop behind him. Once again the Sox would have been better simply keeping their younger options like Thompson (and Sally as full timer at 2B/SS) than bringing in guys like Jackson, Frazier and Lawrie. (obviously it's more complicated then that but the MLB scouting of this franchise is brutal, especially in assessing other teams' talent relative to their own.)

 

Eaton: 4.7

Anderson: 1.4

Frazier: .9

Lawrie: .9

Melky: .9

Avila: .7

Sally: .7

Abreu (ugh): .4

Coats: .2

Narvaez: .1

 

everybody else is negative or at zero.

 

Same story new year: pitching is good enough to make the playoffs, even with a s***ty pen and bad back of the rotation but the position player contributions are not even close to up to par.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

And one Timmah.

 

Good on Eaton but boy oh boy what a bunch of slop behind him. Once again the Sox would have been better simply keeping their younger options like Thompson (and Sally as full timer at 2B/SS) than bringing in guys like Jackson, Frazier and Lawrie. (obviously it's more complicated then that but the MLB scouting of this franchise is brutal, especially in assessing other teams' talent relative to their own.)

 

Eaton: 4.7

Anderson: 1.4

Frazier: .9

Lawrie: .9

Melky: .9

Avila: .7

Sally: .7

Abreu (ugh): .4

Coats: .2

Narvaez: .1

 

everybody else is negative or at zero.

 

Same story new year: pitching is good enough to make the playoffs, even with a s***ty pen and bad back of the rotation but the position player contributions are not even close to up to par.

 

It's just weird to me seeing Saladino higher than Abreu. What does that even mean ? Abreu couldn't possibly be costing the Sox more with his glove than he contributes with his bat. Even Coats in his very limited playing time gets a .2 > I know 1st base isn't a position that can generate a lot of defensive WAR but even in a down hitting year which is improving rapidly Abreu still generates more run production than Eaton though he may not be more valuable to the team.

 

I think b/f WAR overvalues walks and defense I am a huge believer that the Sox need more OBP guys and was a huge proponent of getting better defensive players but when Avila gets a .7 and Abreu just a .4 something is amiss somewhere. A guy like Heyward gets a huge contract and one bad offensive year makes it look like a joke he ever got that kind of contract.

[caulfield12]

It's just weird to me seeing Saladino higher than Abreu. What does that even mean ? Abreu couldn't possibly be costing the Sox more with his glove than he contributes with his bat. Even Coats in his very limited playing time gets a .2 > I know 1st base isn't a position that can generate a lot of defensive WAR but even in a down hitting year which is improving rapidly Abreu still generates more run production than Eaton though he may not be more valuable to the team.

 

I think b/f WAR overvalues walks and defense I am a huge believer that the Sox need more OBP guys and was a huge proponent of getting better defensive players but when Avila gets a .7 and Abreu just a .4 something is amiss somewhere. A guy like Heyward gets a huge contract and one bad offensive year makes it look like a joke he ever got that kind of contract.

 

Heyward hasn't even had a really good season from a power-hitting perspective since the beginning of his Braves' career.

 

Before all those advanced stats became popular, wonder what kind of FA deal he would have received....let's sat 20 year ago? About 50% less? Age was the main factor benefitting him, and the defensive metrics.

 

 

This type of chart almost makes trading Eaton at peak value and blowing everything up seem even more logical. Eaton, Sale and Q are never going to be worth more.

[chitownsportsfan]

It's really hard to find guys that can hit a lick that can play 2B/SS/3B, let alone at an above MLB average level and Tyler can do that.

 

It's pretty easy to find guys (relatively) that can hit for a 780 OPS and play awful defense at 1B and run the bases like a slug. That's basically Jose this year. When Jose had an OPS of 900 he was right there at 4-5WAR.

 

 

What WAR does a good job of measuring is positional scarcity and Jose, as a poor defensive 1B, is basically a glorified DH. WAR knows a s*** player when it sees it -- look at Avi.

 

Eaton, as a guy that can hit some, field a lot and run some contributes in all 3 areas. Same with TA for the most part (although fangraphs doesn't like his base running too much). Jose needs to hit to have value and this season, with the average MLB hitter doing more and Jose less, his relative value has gone way down.

[southsider2k5]

It's just weird to me seeing Saladino higher than Abreu. What does that even mean ? Abreu couldn't possibly be costing the Sox more with his glove than he contributes with his bat. Even Coats in his very limited playing time gets a .2 > I know 1st base isn't a position that can generate a lot of defensive WAR but even in a down hitting year which is improving rapidly Abreu still generates more run production than Eaton though he may not be more valuable to the team.

 

I think b/f WAR overvalues walks and defense I am a huge believer that the Sox need more OBP guys and was a huge proponent of getting better defensive players but when Avila gets a .7 and Abreu just a .4 something is amiss somewhere. A guy like Heyward gets a huge contract and one bad offensive year makes it look like a joke he ever got that kind of contract.

 

It really shows what the weaknesses of the WAR stat are.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

It really shows what the weaknesses of the WAR stat are.

 

Yea I was sort of driving at that but I guess I am not supposed to compare a 1st baseman to a catcher or OF or IF just to other 1st basemen. The problem is it does nothing to show a players value to his team . Maybe I am just the dummy who looks at it and says how can anyone say Avila is better than Abreu or more valuable of a player. Abreu means 10X what Avila does for the Sox . If you say 1 WAR is worth $7/8 million than isn't Avila worth more than Abreu here ?

[chitownsportsfan]

Yea I was sort of driving at that but I guess I am not supposed to compare a 1st baseman to a catcher or OF or IF just to other 1st basemen. The problem is it does nothing to show a players value to his team . Maybe I am just the dummy who looks at it and says how can anyone say Avila is better than Abreu or more valuable of a player. Abreu means 10X what Avila does for the Sox . If you say 1 WAR is worth $7/8 million than isn't Avila worth more than Abreu here ?

 

WAR is just a counting stat. It's not at all saying that Jose Abreu is a worse player than Alex Avila just that all other things being equal for this year that in abstract you'd take a solid defense Alex Avila at catcher with a s***ty OPS than an awful at defense 1B with a mediocre OPS.

 

If Jose could catch and put up and 780 OPS he'd be at 5-7 WAR. But he can't, in fact he's basically a DH. So he needs to smack the ball moreso than just slightly above average to matter.

 

I find it hard to believe anyone could watch the Sox this year and then look at these numbers and think WAR isn't fairly accurate. Does anything not believe Navarro and Avi are some of the least valuable players in baseball? That Eaton, especially given his amazing defense, hasn't been the Sox' best position player...and TA the 2nd best in his limited time?

 

The team hasn't gotten much from Lawrie, Frazier, Jackson etc that shows in watching and in WAR. Yea Todd has hit some HR but his overall slash line is brutal and his defense has fallen off to average as he's aged.

[Hatchetman]

Just looking at Abreu's offensive WAR alone, he's 19th. Add his bad defense and he logically falls lower.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Just looking at Abreu's offensive WAR alone, he's 19th. Add his bad defense and he logically falls lower.

 

So 19th in the AL or all of MLB in Offensive WAR ? Then add his defense and he's what, the 300th player ? Doesn't sound very logical to me

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

WAR is just a counting stat. It's not at all saying that Jose Abreu is a worse player than Alex Avila just that all other things being equal for this year that in abstract you'd take a solid defense Alex Avila at catcher with a s***ty OPS than an awful at defense 1B with a mediocre OPS.

 

If Jose could catch and put up and 780 OPS he'd be at 5-7 WAR.

 

Do you even listen to what you just wrote because it's insane and nothing against you at all. You're trying to explain it to me and I greatly appreciate it. But what you just basically told me is a part time , injured catcher like Alex Avila ( all things being equal and in abstract ??? lost me there ) , I'd rather have him than Abreu ?? No , just no I wouldn't not even close.

 

I mean WAR assigns each position on the field some kind of importance level right ? 1st base is at the bottom of the important positions where its crucial to have a very good defender, correct ?So how can being a bad 1st baseman hurt soooo much as to relegate Abreu to barely above league average as a player or is it barely above league average for a 1st baseman ? Because if its as a player how can you tell me with a straight face no less, all things being equal and in the abstract of course, that a platooned, injured, does nothing offensively but take walks, approx 150 AB's but good defensive catcher is worth more (?) than your full time ,2nd in RBI, 2nd in batting average , 2nd in doubles, 1st in OPS, approx 520 AB but bad defense 1st basemen ?

 

I mean you do understand what I am saying right ? People assign money values to these WAR numbers right ? $7/8M per 1 WAR is standard now right ? Would you pay a part time catcher who gets 25-30% of the AB's of Abreu and offensively does nothing but take walks more than Abreu ? Would you be OK with just letting Abreu walk after this year like we all will be with letting Avila walk ?

 

I don't ask all these silly questions to put you on the spot. I'm just really really trying to understand these WAR evaluations. I don't want to be a dinosaur and it's not as easy as understanding the traditional baseball stats. All of a sudden a light hitting defensive whiz like Heyward gets a huge contract based on these evaluations now and even at the age he got the contract his defensive whizardry wouldn't really last all that long,3 /4 years tops and he'll be mostly considered a middle of the pack RF once he losses some range.

 

The thing is, I could never understand the Heyward hype that led to a contract like that from a traditionalists view. Traditionally offense has always been worth more and probably much more than defense.Good offense can probably be maintained for a longer period of time. Good offense puts you in the Hall of Fame . Does anyone think Heyward is a future HOF guy ? Yet he is given a HOF contract. Smething is wrong or agents are behind the creation of WAR . I say that jokingly of course but come on now something is way out of whack here.

Edited August 27, 2016 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Hatchetman]

No, 19th in offensive WAR at 1B alone. There are 18 1B who have had a better offensive season. At least according to Fangraphs WAR.

[Chicago White Sox]

What's crazy is we entered the 2016 offseason with two position players coming off 2+ WAR seasons, suggesting numerous places to potentially upgrade. And despite additions at 3B, 2B, SS, CF, & C, the front office was unable to add a single 2+ WAR player. To add insult to injury, the guy they gave the majority of at-bats at DH is sporting an 85 wRC+.

 

How in the world can Jerry Reinsdorf consider these facts and not make sweeping changes in the front office?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

No, 19th in offensive WAR at 1B alone. There are 18 1B who have had a better offensive season. At least according to Fangraphs WAR.

 

Ok then so if Abreu is that bad and Eaton is the only position player on the Sox who's worth anything how the hell are the Sox close to .500 ? Don't tell me 3 players on a whole team can make that much difference ( Eaton , Sale and Q ) I'd include Anderson too but he hasn't been around all year. Every other position player then has to be near the bottom too since no one can even put up a 1 WAR. . The pitching staff as a whole might be considered middle of the pack . Seems to me the Sox should be in Twins, A's territory as far as their record is concerned . Maybe I've been too harsh on Robin. He might be a genius

[Hatchetman]

Sox are 12th in pitching WAR, 28th in position player WAR. Team WAR is highly correlated with team record but it is not like a 1:1 thing.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

What's crazy is we entered the 2016 offseason with two position players coming off 2+ WAR seasons, suggesting numerous places to potentially upgrade. And despite additions at 3B, 2B, SS, CF, & C, the front office was unable to add a single 2+ WAR player. To add insult to injury, the guy they gave the majority of at-bats at DH is sporting an 85 wRC+.

 

How in the world can Jerry Reinsdorf consider these facts and not make sweeping changes in the front office?

 

Well now I am really confused because I trusted the WAR stats Chitown used but now looked it up myself and Fangraphs has Frazier at a 1.2 WAR and Baseball Ref has him at 2.2 WAR. 2015 Frazier 4.5, 2014 4.8, 2013 3.1, 2012 2.6 all per Fangraphs.

 

Baseball Reference is more generous with WAR and just by a casual glance it appears to be wide differences in defensive WAR where Abreu is hurt very badly by the Fangraphs d WAR but not so much by the Baseball Ref. . I think I prefer Baseball Ref. just because defensive evaluations seem to matter way too much on Fangraphs. Of course they calculate WAR differently in other areas too so it's possible I am making a generalization about things I'm ignorant on.

 

I don't think anyone here expected the worst WAR in Fraziers last 5 years. I often have pointed out how the Sox keep acquiring NL players whose stats drop once they get to the AL and I have said they need to start acquiring more AL players and have often been called out on it. But the facts speak for themselves at least for the Sox. And no one bring up Eaton because he didn't have a history of stats of the NL. Until there is some standardized way for calculate WAR I will remain skeptical of it's use.

[Dam8610]

Impressive that Anderson is at 1.4 WAR in about 40% of a season, projects out to roughly 3.5-4 WAR over a full season. Looks like he has 3-5 WAR potential.

[SCCWS]

Ok then so if Abreu is that bad and Eaton is the only position player on the Sox who's worth anything how the hell are the Sox close to .500 ? Don't tell me 3 players on a whole team can make that much difference ( Eaton , Sale and Q ) I'd include Anderson too but he hasn't been around all year. Every other position player then has to be near the bottom too since no one can even put up a 1 WAR. . The pitching staff as a whole might be considered middle of the pack . Seems to me the Sox should be in Twins, A's territory as far as their record is concerned . Maybe I've been too harsh on Robin. He might be a genius

 

Well you can look at it two ways. How important is a manager??? Either the front office assembled a contender and Robin and staff could not get them to produce. Or the FO assembled a lemon and Robin at least got lemon juice.

[caulfield12]

Well now I am really confused because I trusted the WAR stats Chitown used but now looked it up myself and Fangraphs has Frazier at a 1.2 WAR and Baseball Ref has him at 2.2 WAR. 2015 Frazier 4.5, 2014 4.8, 2013 3.1, 2012 2.6 all per Fangraphs.

 

Baseball Reference is more generous with WAR and just by a casual glance it appears to be wide differences in defensive WAR where Abreu is hurt very badly by the Fangraphs d WAR but not so much by the Baseball Ref. . I think I prefer Baseball Ref. just because defensive evaluations seem to matter way too much on Fangraphs. Of course they calculate WAR differently in other areas too so it's possible I am making a generalization about things I'm ignorant on.

 

I don't think anyone here expected the worst WAR in Fraziers last 5 years. I often have pointed out how the Sox keep acquiring NL players whose stats drop once they get to the AL and I have said they need to start acquiring more AL players and have often been called out on it. But the facts speak for themselves at least for the Sox. And no one bring up Eaton because he didn't have a history of stats of the NL. Until there is some standardized way for calculate WAR I will remain skeptical of it's use.

 

Otoh, the two best offensive seasons from players we've acquired via trade the last decade or so have come from former Az DBacks in Quentin and Eaton.

 

So we should only acquire players from that team, and avoid former "Adams" from WSH.

 

I think it's pretty safe to say that the majority of the board expected a less than stellar season from Frazier because of his second half, coming from NL, age, and the fact that every big move made in recent years has just not worked out as well as expected.

 

Even the second best KW/Hahn move in Abreu...a trade of Jose might not be able to bring back Yasiel Puig. I'll go ahead and assume Friedman would do it today, but probably not a month ago.

 

 

[caulfield12]

Well now I am really confused because I trusted the WAR stats Chitown used but now looked it up myself and Fangraphs has Frazier at a 1.2 WAR and Baseball Ref has him at 2.2 WAR. 2015 Frazier 4.5, 2014 4.8, 2013 3.1, 2012 2.6 all per Fangraphs.

 

Baseball Reference is more generous with WAR and just by a casual glance it appears to be wide differences in defensive WAR where Abreu is hurt very badly by the Fangraphs d WAR but not so much by the Baseball Ref. . I think I prefer Baseball Ref. just because defensive evaluations seem to matter way too much on Fangraphs. Of course they calculate WAR differently in other areas too so it's possible I am making a generalization about things I'm ignorant on.

 

I don't think anyone here expected the worst WAR in Fraziers last 5 years. I often have pointed out how the Sox keep acquiring NL players whose stats drop once they get to the AL and I have said they need to start acquiring more AL players and have often been called out on it. But the facts speak for themselves at least for the Sox. And no one bring up Eaton because he didn't have a history of stats of the NL. Until there is some standardized way for calculate WAR I will remain skeptical of it's use.

 

Otoh, the two best offensive seasons from players we've acquired via trade the last decade or so have come from former Az DBacks in Quentin and Eaton.

 

So we should only acquire players from that team, and avoid former "Adams" from WSH.

 

I think it's pretty safe to say that the majority of the board expected a less than stellar season from Frazier because of his second half, coming from NL, age, and the fact that every big move made in recent years has just not worked out as well as expected.

 

Even the second best KW/Hahn move in Abreu...a trade of Jose might not be able to bring back Yasiel Puig. I'll go ahead and assume Friedman would do it today, but probably not a month ago.

 

 

[Hatchetman]

BBRef has sox at 12.5 WAR for position players, good for #24

Fangraphs has them at 7.6, good for #28

 

I don't think the big picture is much different regardless which you use.

[NCsoxfan]

Not sure if I'm reading this correctly, but Anderson has the second highest BABIP among all shortstops. Now I realize he strikes out a lot and doesn't walk much, but that's an encouraging sign if he can even get a little more plate discipline.

[Eminor3rd]

Do you even listen to what you just wrote because it's insane and nothing against you at all. You're trying to explain it to me and I greatly appreciate it. But what you just basically told me is a part time , injured catcher like Alex Avila ( all things being equal and in abstract ??? lost me there ) , I'd rather have him than Abreu ?? No , just no I wouldn't not even close.

 

I mean WAR assigns each position on the field some kind of importance level right ? 1st base is at the bottom of the important positions where its crucial to have a very good defender, correct ?So how can being a bad 1st baseman hurt soooo much as to relegate Abreu to barely above league average as a player or is it barely above league average for a 1st baseman ? Because if its as a player how can you tell me with a straight face no less, all things being equal and in the abstract of course, that a platooned, injured, does nothing offensively but take walks, approx 150 AB's but good defensive catcher is worth more (?) than your full time ,2nd in RBI, 2nd in batting average , 2nd in doubles, 1st in OPS, approx 520 AB but bad defense 1st basemen ?

 

I mean you do understand what I am saying right ? People assign money values to these WAR numbers right ? $7/8M per 1 WAR is standard now right ? Would you pay a part time catcher who gets 25-30% of the AB's of Abreu and offensively does nothing but take walks more than Abreu ? Would you be OK with just letting Abreu walk after this year like we all will be with letting Avila walk ?

 

I don't ask all these silly questions to put you on the spot. I'm just really really trying to understand these WAR evaluations. I don't want to be a dinosaur and it's not as easy as understanding the traditional baseball stats. All of a sudden a light hitting defensive whiz like Heyward gets a huge contract based on these evaluations now and even at the age he got the contract his defensive whizardry wouldn't really last all that long,3 /4 years tops and he'll be mostly considered a middle of the pack RF once he losses some range.

 

The thing is, I could never understand the Heyward hype that led to a contract like that from a traditionalists view. Traditionally offense has always been worth more and probably much more than defense.Good offense can probably be maintained for a longer period of time. Good offense puts you in the Hall of Fame . Does anyone think Heyward is a future HOF guy ? Yet he is given a HOF contract. Smething is wrong or agents are behind the creation of WAR . I say that jokingly of course but come on now something is way out of whack here.

 

You're forgetting about positional adjustment, for one. Fangraphs lumps that in with defense, which leads a lot of people to be confused. You're not comparing Abreu's hitting versus Navarro's hitting -- you're comparing Abreu's value as it relates to other first baseman against Navarro's value as it relates to other catchers.

 

Also, the "WAR is a counting stat" thing is critical. No, you wouldn't rather have Navarro than Abreu because Navarro has more WAR this year any more than you'd rather have Frazier than Donaldson because Frazier has more homeruns this year. But even that doesn't mean Navarro can't have been more valuable than Abreu over the course of a few months. Drawing sweeping conclusions from partial season counting-stat data is dumb and wrong regardless of which stats you use. If you're going to do that, it isn't the stats' fault.

 

Forget about the dollar-value thing. People misuse that CONSTANTLY. All it was ever supposed to do is form a baseline for a specific year's market values during free agency. It was NEVER, expressly nor implied, supposed to be able to actually put a dollar value on a win for a team. There are WAY too many constantly changing variables (unique to each team and season) to be able to do that. But people constantly reference market norms for $/WAR from like 2012 to try to decide whether or not a slumping player is worth his contract going forward and other ridiculous stuff. Even professional writers do it, and it's sad.

 

[Eminor3rd]

Not sure if I'm reading this correctly, but Anderson has the second highest BABIP among all shortstops. Now I realize he strikes out a lot and doesn't walk much, but that's an encouraging sign if he can even get a little more plate discipline.

 

Eh, I think it's actually a bad sign. Yes, speedy contact guys tend to run higher BABIPs than average, but literally no one in the live ball era has ever sustained .375. His elevated BABIP is more likely a sign pointing to near-term regression than it is a sign pointing to long-term success.

[Eminor3rd]

Well now I am really confused because I trusted the WAR stats Chitown used but now looked it up myself and Fangraphs has Frazier at a 1.2 WAR and Baseball Ref has him at 2.2 WAR. 2015 Frazier 4.5, 2014 4.8, 2013 3.1, 2012 2.6 all per Fangraphs.

 

Baseball Reference is more generous with WAR and just by a casual glance it appears to be wide differences in defensive WAR where Abreu is hurt very badly by the Fangraphs d WAR but not so much by the Baseball Ref. . I think I prefer Baseball Ref. just because defensive evaluations seem to matter way too much on Fangraphs. Of course they calculate WAR differently in other areas too so it's possible I am making a generalization about things I'm ignorant on.

 

I don't think anyone here expected the worst WAR in Fraziers last 5 years. I often have pointed out how the Sox keep acquiring NL players whose stats drop once they get to the AL and I have said they need to start acquiring more AL players and have often been called out on it. But the facts speak for themselves at least for the Sox. And no one bring up Eaton because he didn't have a history of stats of the NL. Until there is some standardized way for calculate WAR I will remain skeptical of it's use.

 

It isn't so much that the defense matters MORE on FanGraphs, it's that each site uses an entirely different defensive statistic to measure defensive contribution.

 

Generally speaking, FanGraphs tends to favor statistics that "strip outside factors" to productivity, which theoretically gets more to the core of a player's "skill," at least to the extent that it is demonstrated in a particular season. The downside to this is that it leaves some rare, outlier-type skills out of the equation, simply because we can't be totally sure they're present. BR tends to prefer a more complete model, but wraps in a bunch of stuff that isn't predictive and it much more affected by luck. This gives you a more total look at what a player did, but the numbers are far less stable, and so it would be much easier to over or undervalue a player's true talent from season to season. The differences in the models are MUCH more pronounced on the pitching side, though.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Thank you Eminor for your contributions . It is greatly appreciated. As you said a lot about WAR is misunderstood and misused and that's what so confusing about it. It just takes too much effort to get a real grasp on what it all means especially when the people qwho talk about are constantly making mistakes.

 

It appears I will remain a dinosaur stuck in the tar pit struggling but ultimately losing the battle.