AL Cy Young

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Porcello makes his final start tonight. Could really use a nice RIGHT THERE FRED from Toronto to knock down that pretty ERA.

[OmarComing25]

Porcello makes his final start tonight. Could really use a nice RIGHT THERE FRED from Toronto to knock down that pretty ERA.

Bill Burr fan?

[SCCWS]

Porcello makes his final start tonight. Could really use a nice RIGHT THERE FRED from Toronto to knock down that pretty ERA.

 

Game will start late due to Ortiz Tribute. It may be a distraction for Porcello.

 

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Bill Burr fan?

 

Absolutely.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Game will start late due to Ortiz Tribute. It may be a distraction for Porcello.

 

Porcello had a mediocre outing. At the least, probably didn't increase his WAR at at, just inflated his ERA and BB/9 a tad.

 

6 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, 1 HR.

 

ERA went from 3.11 to 3.15. WHIP up to 1.008

 

Sale needs to go 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER to beat Porcello's ERA. Sale needs to allow only 2 baserunners over that 7 1/3 IP to beat Porcello's WHIP.

[caulfield12]

Sale is not close to winning...but we can continue to live in the imaginary universe where 45+ voting sportswriters (still the majority of the BBWAA) follow sabre stats more than traditional ones.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Sale is not close to winning...but we can continue to live in the imaginary universe where 45+ voting sportswriters (still the majority of the BBWAA) follow sabre stats more than traditional ones.

 

Barring a really bad start Sunday, Sale has locked up the fWAR and pWAR titles. That's why I posted what he needs to do ERA and WHIP wise to be better than Porcello. If he accomplishes that, then the only traditional stats the old-thinking writers can point to is wins and walks. Sale would have the advantage in IP, ERA, K, WHIP, H/9.

[caulfield12]

Barring a really bad start Sunday, Sale has locked up the fWAR and pWAR titles. That's why I posted what he needs to do ERA and WHIP wise to be better than Porcello. If he accomplishes that, then the only traditional stats the old-thinking writers can point to is wins and walks. Sale would have the advantage in IP, ERA, K, WHIP, H/9.

 

And you honestly feel he has a chance to finish ahead of Porcello, Britton, Kluber, Verlander, Happ, Hamels, etc.?

[SCCWS]

Barring a really bad start Sunday, Sale has locked up the fWAR and pWAR titles. That's why I posted what he needs to do ERA and WHIP wise to be better than Porcello. If he accomplishes that, then the only traditional stats the old-thinking writers can point to is wins and walks. Sale would have the advantage in IP, ERA, K, WHIP, H/9.

 

 

I would rather have Sale come back( he will not be traded) next year w a chip on his shoulder for not winning it. I also think he finishes 3-4 in ballots.

 

[bmags]

August Faegrestrom of Fangraphs tweeted out he had Sale and Quintana in his top 5. Phone autocorrected his last name.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

And you honestly feel he has a chance to finish ahead of Porcello, Britton, Kluber, Verlander, Happ, Hamels, etc.?

 

A chance? Yeah, absolutely. I think Porcello gets it, but I don't think it will be a landslide and it would totally shock me if Kluber won it either. I don't think Britton, Verlander, Happ, or Hamels have a chance.

[SCCWS]

A chance? Yeah, absolutely. I think Porcello gets it, but I don't think it will be a landslide and it would totally shock me if Kluber won it either. I don't think Britton, Verlander, Happ, or Hamels have a chance.

 

Although I think they should be a separate category, I think Britton will be 3rd especailly w O's late surge for a WC.

 

[OmarComing25]

With all the chatter about Britton's Cy Young chances I thought this post from Reddit by user yesacabbagez summed it up perfectly why he shouldn't win:

 

Here is a basic breakdown of why it would take something completely f***ing amazing, beyond anything Britton did this year, for me to consider a RP a valid Cy Young candidate.

 

How many times have you seen a failed starter turn into an elite reliever?. Britton is really damn good. Betances is really good (I don't think Betances ever really stared in MLB though). Andrew Miller. Wade Davis. These are just a couple of the guys who became absolutely elite who are absolutely failed starters. Teams didn't move them to the bullpen because relievers are more important than starters. They were moved because they failed to be effective starters. If you are willing to vote for Britton, are you going to vote Kershaw for the NL Cy Young? He has a lower ERA than Kyle Hendricks, if you are voting Britton you clearly don't think innings are of much importance.

 

You know why elite relievers almost always put up better per inning numbers than starters? The nature of their job. It is easier to go all in on 3-5 batters than to pace yourself out for 20-30. To choose Britton over a starter that puts up even solid numbers and about 200+ innings is just like voting an elite defensive replacement CF. RP aren't guaranteed to face the best hitters on a team, let alone multiple times.

 

The idea that being a RP is on the same level of being a starter is mind boggling. Basically one bad inning could have derailed Britton's entire campaign. ERA is such a context driven stat that to use it to show he was the best is silly, when he has literally failed at something other pitchers are clearly doing better than he could. To vote Britton over pitchers who are doing something he failed to do is ridiculous.

 

This is like telling Usain Bolt I am a better runner than he is because I ran ten feet before he ran 100m. How can you say Chris Sale or Porcello or Kluber or Verlander or Tanaka or Price or Quintana is less good at pitching than Britton when Britton couldn't even come close to doing what those guys did this year?

 

Even using BBref war which skews heavily to pure runs allowed has him 12th, 2 wins behind Kluber and Verlander. He's also only .4war ahead of the next AL reliever. The difference between him and the next reliever is 5 times smaller than him and the top starter in a metric that is massively skewed in favorite of the one stat that goes in his favor.

 

Zach Britton faced the bottom half of lineups more than the top half. That is a simple fact. He faced hitters 1-3 of a team 67 times ( 26,19,22) while facing 6-8 98 times (34,32,32). To put that in perspective, David Price's least faced batter was the ninth hitter which he faced 92 times. Price faces the top 3 hitters on a team 310 times, five times more than Britton did. You want to talk about leverage and situational usage? Britton faced over HALF OF HIS BATTERS (51%) as the 6-9th hitters on a team. Price faced those hitters in 42% of his batters. Britton faced the no2 and 3 hitters 19 and 22 times all year. He has an uneven usage when compared to a starter who is going to face higher batters more often than lower batters. No matter what school you belong to, everyone knows better hitters should reside at the top of lineups. Facing the bottom third of a lineup 50% of the time is probably going to lead to suppressed results.

 

I can't vote for a reliever because of these reasons. They are almost all failed starters, and I find it hard to believe that a David Price or Clayton Kershaw wouldn't transition well into the bullpen. Relievers simply don't face the same caliber of hitters as evenly as starters do. Relieving is simply easier than starting. Almost all starters that move into the bullpen see better production per inning. Voting for Britton is just saying that you don't care that starting is both harder and more important. It is saying that you will lock into one number and derive all value from it regardless of how context oriented it is.

[caulfield12]

With all the chatter about Britton's Cy Young chances I thought this post from Reddit by user yesacabbagez summed it up perfectly why he shouldn't win:

 

If it was that easy to be a closer, more than 2-3% of those former/failed starters could do it.

 

Either all those MLB execs are wrong and emulating the Yankees or Royals is not possible as a blueprint, or high leverage situations are more difficult to pitch than innings 1-3. Let's not forget that those are close to max effort outings every time, especially when pitching 1 1/3rd+ innings.

 

Of course, another problem is repeatability...and the fact that Britton coukd just as easily look like Jim Johnson as Davis/Betances next year.

 

Or look at career years for guys like Thigpen or Willie Hernandez...other than Mo Rivera and Trevor Hoffman and maybe K Rod, few could it well for 10+ years without going off a Brad Lidge.

 

 

 

It's also not taking into consideration the AL East had three playoff teams and a pretty decent Yankees team in the same division...it's not like he was rolling over the Twins, A's and Angels every time out.

Edited October 3, 2016 by caulfield12

[OmarComing25]

If it was that easy to be a closer, more than 2-3% of those former/failed starters could do it.

 

Either all those MLB execs are wrong and emulating the Yankees or Royals is not possible as a blueprint, or high leverage situations are more difficult to pitch than innings 1-3. Let's not forget that those are close to max effort outings every time, especially when pitching 1 1/3rd+ innings.

 

Of course, another problem is repeatability...and the fact that Britton coukd just as easily look like Jim Johnson as Davis/Betances next year.

 

Or look at career years for guys like Thigpen or Willie Hernandez...other than Mo Rivera and Trevor Hoffman and maybe K Rod, few could it well for 10+ years without going off a Brad Lidge.

 

 

 

It's also not taking into consideration the AL East had three playoff teams and a pretty decent Yankees team in the same division...it's not like he was rolling over the Twins, A's and Angels every time out.

Over half of Britton's (relatively extremely light) workload came from facing the bottom third of the order, and that's without facing any 2nd or 3rd time through the order penalty that every starting pitcher does. I'd much rather face the 6-9 hitters from the Blue Jays or Red Sox than have to go through the entire lineups of the Twins, A's and Angels multiple times.

Edited October 3, 2016 by OmarComing25

[flavum]

I was wrong about Britton. Porcello, Kluber, and Verlander are the top 3 in some order. Announced 11-16.

[flavum]

Verlander most 1st place votes, finished 2nd.

 

Porcello won.

 

Britton's votes killed Verlander. Time to eliminate relievers from Cy consideration.

 

Sale finished 5th.

 

Scherzer won the NL easily.

[chw42]

Verlander most 1st place votes, finished 2nd.

 

Porcello won.

 

Britton's votes killed Verlander. Time to eliminate relievers from Cy consideration.

 

Sale finished 5th.

 

Scherzer won the NL easily.

 

That shouldn't happen...

[flavum]

That shouldn't happen...

 

Rigged.

 

2 voters didn't have Verlander in the top 5. Both from TB.

Edited November 17, 2016 by flavum

[LittleHurt05]

Kate Upton tweeted "Hey MLB, I thought I was the only one allowed to f*** Justin Verlander"

 

Two writers from Tampa didn't even have him on their ballot.

[chw42]

Kate Upton tweeted "Hey MLB, I thought I was the only one allowed to f*** Justin Verlander"

 

Two writers from Tampa didn't even have him on their ballot.

 

That's pretty good.

Edited November 17, 2016 by chw42

[thxfrthmmrs]

Kate Upton tweeted "Hey MLB, I thought I was the only one allowed to f*** Justin Verlander"

 

Two writers from Tampa didn't even have him on their ballot.

 

Probably did not watch baseball in 2016

[bmags]

just realized how almost all these guys were on tigers.

 

Had their owner paid out like crazy imagine they had a rotation of

Verlander

Scherzer

Porcello

Price

Fuller

 

A $120 million rotation

[Bob Sacamano]

just realized how almost all these guys were on tigers.

 

Had their owner paid out like crazy imagine they had a rotation of

Verlander

Scherzer

Porcello

Price

Fuller

 

A $120 million rotation

That'd almost be $30 mill each for the first 4 since Fulmer would be league minimum. That'd be an insane rotation.

 

[LittleHurt05]

just realized how almost all these guys were on tigers.

 

Had their owner paid out like crazy imagine they had a rotation of

Verlander

Scherzer

Porcello

Price

Fuller

 

A $120 million rotation

 

They had that rotation at the end of 2014 and in the playoffs. But two bullpen blow-ups and a Bud Norris masterpiece, and they were quickly swept.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseas...014_ALDS2.shtml