The problem is simple: it's home runs and .OPS

[Greg Hibbard]

Look - is this true or false: the Giants and Royals of the last 3-5 years have had great success building a team that was well-suited to the home stadium they play in.

[southsider2k5]

Blackjack, ok. I hear you on runs scored.

 

I am, and have been, talking about home runs.

 

The average MLB team hit 190 home runs in 2000.

 

The average MLB team will hit 188 home runs in 2016.

 

Can you explain why the White Sox should have reduced home runs compared to the Steroid era when the MLB totals really aren't down?

 

Thank you.

 

So while the rate of HR/G hasn't changed much since 2000 (1.166 this year, 1.172 in 2000) runs per game has fallen off drastically. Then it was 5.14, now it is 4.48. So while homers are slightly down, runs scored are hugely down. That is over a 10% drop off. That is reflected in the OPS+ numbers. As a team we are ever so slightly below average with a 99 OPS+ today. What it looks like to me is a team that is largely unlucky or unclutch. Take your pick. Our OPS+ is essentially league average, but we are creating 4.19 R/G when the average is 4.48.

[Greg Hibbard]

So while the rate of HR/G hasn't changed much since 2000 (1.166 this year, 1.172 in 2000) runs per game has fallen off drastically. Then it was 5.14, now it is 4.48. So while homers are slightly down, runs scored are hugely down. That is over a 10% drop off. That is reflected in the OPS+ numbers. As a team we are ever so slightly below average with a 99 OPS+ today. What it looks like to me is a team that is largely unlucky or unclutch. Take your pick. Our OPS+ is essentially league average, but we are creating 4.19 R/G when the average is 4.48.

 

Runs are harder to come by.

 

A home run guarantees you at least one run, whereas any other hit does not guarantee you a run.

 

The White Sox are hitting drastically less home runs in 3 of the past 4 years.

[bmags]

Or get a RF with power and move Eaton back to CF.

 

Correct.

 

I think my take away from Greg's post, is the "carlos Lee batting 7th" line.

 

Steroid era or not, as constructed we are not in the position where "replacing below average production with average production" moves the needle. We need big upgrades at 2b, OF, DH.

 

When the White Sox are in the playoffs, I expect Tim Anderson to be a great player while also only being our 7th best hitter.

[southsider2k5]

Runs are harder to come by.

 

A home run guarantees you at least one run, whereas any other hit does not guarantee you a run.

 

The White Sox are hitting drastically less home runs in 3 of the past 4 years.

 

Yet the team that is leading all of MLB by far in HR is 11th in runs scored. The team that is 2nd in HR/G is 7th. It isn't as full of a correlation as you want it to be. You know what the leader in R/G is leading MLB in? OBP. The second place team in R/G is 3rd in OBP. The 3rd place team in R/G is 2nd in OBP. Now that is some correlation.

 

The White Sox are 19th in OBP, and 23rd in R/G.

 

This team needs to get more guys on. Period.

[Black_Jack29]

Again, I have said all are good players. They don't hit enough home runs for the positions they occupy, given the rest of our offense. Period. LF and RF are power hitter positions where you typically get 25-35 homers a year and well north of .800 OPS.

 

If Hahn could land a RF slugger, Eaton should move back to CF.

 

Melky currently has a .790 OPS, 37 doubles, is slugging .446, and has a WAR of 2.1. That's far from bad, and his presence in LF is totally justified by those numbers. The idea that the Sox need to upgrade their offensive output in LF right now is ridiculous. The argument that all LFs need to hit 25-35 HRs to justify their spots on a ML roster is silly. Johnny Damon never hit 25 HRs once in his career. He was pretty good, no?

 

As for Anderson, the Sox aren't in a position to move him. He's the only halfway decent position player they've produced in the past decade-plus. And being a rookie, he's dirt-cheap. The Sox are on a limited budget and it would be dumb of them to replace Anderson with an expensive free agent who can hit 5-10 more HRs.

Edited September 22, 2016 by Black_Jack29

[Black_Jack29]

Correct.

 

I think my take away from Greg's post, is the "carlos Lee batting 7th" line.

 

Steroid era or not, as constructed we are not in the position where "replacing below average production with average production" moves the needle. We need big upgrades at 2b, OF, DH.

 

When the White Sox are in the playoffs, I expect Tim Anderson to be a great player while also only being our 7th best hitter.

 

I agree with that, but I'm not sure that we necessarily need to upgrade 2B... unless Lawrie continues to have health problems.

 

[southsider2k5]

If Hahn could land a RF slugger, Eaton should move back to CF.

 

Melky currently has a .790 OPS, 37 doubles, is slugging .446, and has a WAR of 2.1. That's far from bad, and his presence in LF is totally justified by those numbers. The idea that the Sox need to upgrade their offensive output in LF right now is ridiculous. The argument that all LFs need to hit 25-35 HRs to justify their spots on a ML roster is silly.

 

As for Anderson, the Sox aren't in a position to move him. He's the only halfway decent position player they've produced in the past decade-plus. And being a rookie, he's dirt-cheap. The Sox are on a limited budget and it would be dumb of them to replace Anderson with an expensive free agent who can hit 5-10 more HRs.

 

Especially when Anderson has a big ceiling to improve into some solid power numbers for a SS.

[Greg Hibbard]

I don't think I would dump Anderson, either, nor am I complaining about him very much, especially given the price - but his K/BB ratio is really really bad.

 

In light of the discussion about OBP:

 

If Anderson, Melky, Eaton, Abreu and Frazier as the core, your OBP from those five players this year is a combined .327 (an average which does not even put you in the top 8)

 

Total homers are 96 for those 5 players.

 

I would assert that you would need at least an OBP of .327 on average from the rest of your lineup to compete, and probably 75 more homers.

 

So, can you add enough OBP/power from 2B/OF/DH/C with anyone we could bring in?

 

 

[Greg Hibbard]

Johnny Damon never hit 25 HRs once in his career. He was pretty good, no?

 

Come on, guy. Damon stole 400+ bases in his career and walked a whole lot more than Cabrera, and I would guess might have score a time or two from first base on a double, etc. His speed and eye more than made up for his lack of power.

 

 

 

[Black_Jack29]

Come on, guy. Damon stole 400+ bases in his career and walked a whole lot more than Cabrera, and I would guess might have score a time or two from first base on a double, etc. His speed and eye more than made up for his lack of power.

 

So you admit now that LFs don't need to hit 25-35 HRs to justify their spots in the lineup? I'll call that progress.

 

BTW, Melky is having a better season than Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Jayson Werth, and a bunch of other starting LFs.

 

 

[Greg Hibbard]

So you admit now that LFs don't need to hit 25-35 HRs to justify their spots in the lineup? I'll call that progress.

 

BTW, Melky is having a better season than Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Jayson Werth, and a bunch of other starting LFs.

 

Yes, but the problem with using Johnny Damon to justify why Melky doesn't need to hit home runs is that Johnny Damon does things that Melky Cabrera never could do.

 

There's no question that Melky Cabrera is having a good season.

[Black_Jack29]

Yes, but the problem with using Johnny Damon to justify why Melky doesn't need to hit home runs is that Johnny Damon does things that Melky Cabrera never could do.

 

It's nice to see that you've moved past the idea that a LF needs to hit 25-35 HRs.

 

Since your "more HRs = more playoff appearances" argument has been thoroughly discredited, it's time to move on.

 

[harkness99]

Ok, I'll look at the Giants and Royals....if you take a look at this link.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/sort/HRFactor

 

You are telling me they play in harder ball parks to hit homeruns... not sure what your point is.

 

Those teams won because of their pithing and defense and other factors.

 

 

If you are saying the Sox need to get home run hitters because they play in a home run hitting park - again I say that's what they have been trying to do and its failing.

 

So really what you are advocating is for them to do the same thing they been failing at.

 

What southside posted showed pretty clearly that HR's isn't the reason the Sox aren't scoring as much.

[caulfield12]

Even the Orioles are going to struggle to make the playoffs, have a line-up with power up and down the lineup and they also have the benefit of the best closer in the AL.

 

Maybe an equally valid argument would be finding a good catcher like Gary Sanchez who can hit for power is worth its worth in gold...otherwise, you're forced to perpetually chase production at DH and the corner IF and OF spots...or get your slugging from the middle infield and CF (players like Kinsler, Lindor or Cain).

[caulfield12]

You are telling me they play in harder ball parks to hit homeruns... not sure what your point is.

 

Those teams won because of their pithing and defense and other factors.

 

 

If you are saying the Sox need to get home run hitters because they play in a home run hitting park - again I say that's what they have been trying to do and its failing.

 

So really what you are advocating is for them to do the same thing they been failing at.

 

What southside posted showed pretty clearly that HR's isn't the reason the Sox aren't scoring as much.

 

And KC is the third best run scoring park...but it's still a doubles and triples stadium except in the middle of the summer or when the wind is blowing out.

 

Once again, you need that balance of speed, occasional power and the ability to work counts as well as make contact in key situations.

[chitownsportsfan]

Score more runs. DGAF if it's via infield hits and stolen bases and bunts. Score. More. Runs. Don't consistently field a bottom 1/3 offense in any metric : RS, OPS, wRC+, OBP, etc.

 

Find. More. Good. Hitters.

 

The HR argument is bulls***. Just get better hitters. How they are good doesn't matter.

[Hatchetman]

we don't score any damn runs. almost at the bottom of the league. OPS is just below average though (??)

Edited September 22, 2016 by Hatchetman

[Dick Allen]

Score more runs. DGAF if it's via infield hits and stolen bases and bunts. Score. More. Runs. Don't consistently field a bottom 1/3 offense in any metric : RS, OPS, wRC+, OBP, etc.

 

Find. More. Good. Hitters.

 

The HR argument is bulls***. Just get better hitters. How they are good doesn't matter.

23rd in runs 22nd in home runs. The HR argument is not bulls***. You don't play home games in ah home run paradise and not have a home run happy team. It makes zero sense.

Edited September 23, 2016 by Dick Allen

[harkness99]

23rd in runs 2nd in home runs. The HR argument is not bulls***. You don't play home games in ah home run paradise and not have a home run happy team. It makes zero sense.

 

 

Chasing home run hitting free agents has been failing.

 

We need better on base percentage and a better bullpen.

 

Worrying about home run hitters isn't working.

Edited September 23, 2016 by harkness

[Big Hurtin]

The problem may be simple, but high OPS guys cost big $, so...

[kitekrazy]

Chasing home run hitting free agents has been failing.

We need better on base percentage and a better bullpen.

 

Worrying about home run hitters isn't working.

 

That's because they've been getting them from the NL.

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

And, pretty much every starting pitchers arm/shoulder exploded. Eldred, Sirotka, Parque, and Baldwin all never really were the same again. Baldwin held onto it a bit longer than the other three, but that starting staff was ragged when the playoffs started

Off topic but what you just said is why I don't understand the people who complain about Sale or Q or Rodon throwing too many pitches in meaningless games. Cooper ,with Sale's blessing, have agreed that he has faded over the course of previous seasons and they are building his endurance so he can be prepared for the playoffs if he ever gets to them either with the Sox or another team. The strategy is twofold ,not only building endurance for the playoffs but being able to recover for the following seasons work load.

[Dam8610]

I think the problem with the offense is, as has been stated, striking out too much. This team does not seem to value not giving up outs. Not striking out means forcing the opposing defense to make a play to get an out. Considering that a given player's defensive value is typically increased by not screwing up, there is value to putting the ball in play. By striking out, an offense is limiting the amount of times that the opposing defense must make a play to record an out, thereby limiting the number of times they will screw up. Not striking out puts pressure on the other team and gives your offense more opportunities to score runs. This is a skill the White Sox should value more than they currently do, including teaching it throughout the system.

[caulfield12]

I think the problem with the offense is, as has been stated, striking out too much. This team does not seem to value not giving up outs. Not striking out means forcing the opposing defense to make a play to get an out. Considering that a given player's defensive value is typically increased by not screwing up, there is value to putting the ball in play. By striking out, an offense is limiting the amount of times that the opposing defense must make a play to record an out, thereby limiting the number of times they will screw up. Not striking out puts pressure on the other team and gives your offense more opportunities to score runs. This is a skill the White Sox should value more than they currently do, including teaching it throughout the system.

 

See Twins 2001-2010, KC 2013-2016.