The problem is simple: it's home runs and .OPS

[Black_Jack29]

My entire point is that if you're going to have Adam Eaton and Melky Cabrera in your outfield

 

Melky and Eaton both have a .790 OPS. Melky has hit 37 doubles and he and Eaton are slugging in the .440 and .430 range, respectively. If you think that those two are a drag on the run production simply because they don't hit as many homers as you'd like, you're wrong.

 

and if Tim Anderson is in your infield with Tyler Saladino, and you have a BLACK HOLE at catcher..... beyond the 65 homers you can count on with Abreu and Frazier, WHERE ARE YOUR HOME RUNS COMING FROM?

 

As I've said twice already, the lack of HRs from DH is and has been a major problem. That's something that will have to be addressed this off-season.

 

Saladino and Shuck are also part of the HR problem, but those two are only getting regular playing time because of injuries. Replace them with Lawrie and a halfway decent CF and you'll see the HR production increase.

 

FWIW, the Sox are a good 20 or so HRs ahead of where they were last season. That can be attributed to Frazier. If Lawrie didn't get hurt and Abreu hit normally in the first half of this season, they'd be a good 35 HRs ahead of where they were last season.

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

Do you think we can get Hawk Harrelson to Join soxtalk after he retires so we can still receive his tutelage?

 

 

He's already on soxtalk. Posts under the handle greg775

[southsider2k5]

Melky and Eaton both have a .790 OPS. Melky has hit 37 doubles and he and Eaton are slugging in the .440 and .430 range, respectively. If you think that those two are a drag on the run production simply because they don't hit as many homers as you'd like, you're wrong.

 

 

 

As I've said twice already, the lack of HRs from DH is and has been a major problem. That's something that will have to be addressed this off-season.

 

Saladino and Shuck are also part of the HR problem, but those two are only getting regular playing time because of injuries. Replace them with Lawrie and a halfway decent CF and you'll see the HR production increase.

 

FWIW, the Sox are a good 20 or so HRs ahead of where they were last season. That can be attributed to Frazier. If Lawrie didn't get hurt and Abreu hit normally in the first half of this season, they'd be a good 35 HRs ahead of where they were last season.

 

Melky and his .790 OPS is a 117 OPS+ this season. Again, Jose Valentin and his .835 OPS from 2000 was a 107 OPS+. In other words Melky is rated 10% higher than Jose was in his season, despite better looking numbers.

[GreenSox]

It's also a bullpen that has really 1 7th-9th inning arm (maybe 2); a rotation that has 2 studs and up and down Rodon, a #5 in Gonzalez and is clearly an arm short, and with no depth.

 

What former all-star that another team is trying to dump will Rick and Kenny fall for this offseason?

Edited September 22, 2016 by GreenSox

[Greg Hibbard]

Melky and his .790 OPS is a 117 OPS+ this season. Again, Jose Valentin and his .835 OPS from 2000 was a 107 OPS+. In other words Melky is rated 10% higher than Jose was in his season, despite better looking numbers.

 

True, but when you compare Jose Valentin's production at SS compared to other shortstops in that season, does he look relatively better than Melky Cabrera compared to other LF in this one?

[Black_Jack29]

True, but when you compare Jose Valentin's production at SS compared to other shortstops in that season, does he look relatively better than Melky Cabrera compared to other LF in this one?

 

Valentin was an error machine, though his range made up for it somewhat.

 

You seem to think that Valentin's offensive production is typical for a SS and that it'd be easy to replace, and that just isn't the case.

 

Edited September 22, 2016 by Black_Jack29

[Greg Hibbard]

The OPS+ numbers that SS2K5 cited should answer your question.

 

They should?

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Valentin seems ranked in the top 5 SS in OPS+ in 2000. I think Cabrera is ranked 7th for LF.

[Greg Hibbard]

You seem to think that Valentin's offensive production is typical for a SS and that it'd be easy to replace, and that just isn't the case.

 

I think Valentin's offensive production is one of the reasons we succeeded in that year despite relatively mediocre pitching top to bottom, but that it played well for the Sox because he was able to have a career year in a hitter's park.

 

I don't think it's necessarily easy to replace. I think that creating enough offense can be done in a number of ways, though, and Valentin proves that.

[Black_Jack29]

I think Valentin's offensive production is one of the reasons we succeeded in that year despite relatively mediocre pitching top to bottom, but that it played well for the Sox because he was able to have a career year in a hitter's park.

 

I don't think it's necessarily easy to replace. I think that creating enough offense can be done in a number of ways, though, and Valentin proves that.

 

The Sox were lucky to win the Central in 2000. They over-performed before the break and regressed into an above-average team afterwards. Unsurprisingly, they were unable to win a playoff game.

Edited September 22, 2016 by Black_Jack29

[Greg Hibbard]

Yes, but it's not like we are talking about reverting to team like 2000....I'm talking about having enough power for a frontline of Sale, Q and Rodon to actually win a division and get into a playoff series where they could succeed.

[Black_Jack29]

Yes, but it's not like we are talking about reverting to team like 2000....I'm talking about having enough power for a frontline of Sale, Q and Rodon to actually win a division and get into a playoff series where they could succeed.

 

Well, yes, the Sox unquestionably need to score more runs. Nobody's arguing against that. But saying that Eaton, Melky, and Anderson are part of that problem just because they don't hit enough home runs (as if a HR is the only way to score a run) is just silly.

 

[Greg Hibbard]

Well, yes, the Sox unquestionably need to score more runs. Nobody's arguing against that. But saying that Eaton, Melky, and Anderson are part of that problem just because they don't hit enough home runs (as if a HR is the only way to score a run) is just silly.

 

The problem is the team composition. I feel like we're talking in circles.

 

My very first post in this thread said I was not criticizing those players, but IF YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE THOSE PLAYERS with low homer totals, you have to get your homers from somewhere.

 

I realize that you think the solution is to get RF(CF?)/DH production. How many more home runs do you think you can add to those positions next year, taking into account the amount of production we got from the third outfielder/DH position this year?

 

Do you automatically assume Frazier will hit 40 again?

[Dick Allen]

The 2000 White Sox scored 978 runs. If they had that offense, they would easily be a playoff team.

[Kyyle23]

The Sox were lucky to win the Central in 2000. They over-performed before the break and regressed into an above-average team afterwards. Unsurprisingly, they were unable to win a playoff game.

 

And, pretty much every starting pitchers arm/shoulder exploded. Eldred, Sirotka, Parque, and Baldwin all never really were the same again. Baldwin held onto it a bit longer than the other three, but that starting staff was ragged when the playoffs started

[Black_Jack29]

And, pretty much every starting pitchers arm/shoulder exploded. Eldred, Sirotka, Parque, and Baldwin all never really were the same again. Baldwin held onto it a bit longer than the other three, but that starting staff was ragged when the playoffs started

 

Yep, I'm glad that Jerrry Manuel and Nardi Contreras don't handle our pitchers anymore.

 

[bmags]

I agree with Greg actually. Melky has been really nice, but Melky + Eaton really would encourage makes it important to get power out of CF. We have pretty good offense at the corners of our IF.

 

I think Anderson will become a 15 hr guy. But we really need to get power numbers from 1-2 more OF positions plus a huge offensive boost out of DH.

[Black_Jack29]

The problem is the team composition. I feel like we're talking in circles.

 

My very first post in this thread said I was not criticizing those players, but IF YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE THOSE PLAYERS with low homer totals, you have to get your homers from somewhere.

 

I realize that you think the solution is to get RF(CF?)/DH production. How many more home runs do you think you can add to those positions next year, taking into account the amount of production we got from the third outfielder/DH position this year?

 

Do you automatically assume Frazier will hit 40 again?

 

You seem to think that steroid-era numbers will be easy to replicate in today's game. The reality is that few teams are going to be able to score 900+ runs again. The Red Sox are at 855 right now and they're an outlier. The Cubs won't get anywhere near 800 this season. The Orioles, Jays, and Rangers, will all end up in the 700-750 range.

 

If the Sox could score 60 more runs next season (via a combo of more HRs, more 2Bs, better situational hitting, etc.), they'd be at around 700 runs, probably over 80 wins, and possibly Wild Card territory if their bullpen improves. The fact that a 900-run (or even 800-run) season is a pipe dream next season doesn't doom the Sox to another sub-.500 season. Given their starting pitching, they're not as impossibly far away from competing as you seem to think they are.

Edited September 22, 2016 by Black_Jack29

[Black_Jack29]

I agree with Greg actually. Melky has been really nice, but Melky + Eaton really would encourage makes it important to get power out of CF. We have pretty good offense at the corners of our IF.

 

Or get a RF with power and move Eaton back to CF.

 

[Greg Hibbard]

You seem to think that steroid-era numbers will be easy to replicate in today's game. The reality is that few teams are going to be able to score 900+ runs again. The Red Sox are at 855 right now and they're an outlier. The Cubs won't get anywhere near 800 this season. The Orioles, Jays, and Rangers, will all end up in the 700-750 range.

 

If the Sox could score 60 more runs next season (via a combo of more HRs, more 2Bs, better situational hitting, etc.), they'd be at around 700 runs, probably over 80 wins, and possibly Wild Card territory if their bullpen improves. The fact that a 900-run (or even 800-run) season is a pipe dream next season doesn't doom the Sox to another sub-.500 season. Given their starting pitching, they're not as impossibly far away from competing as you seem to think they are.

 

Blackjack, ok. I hear you on runs scored.

 

I am, and have been, talking about home runs.

 

The average MLB team hit 190 home runs in 2000.

 

The average MLB team will hit 188 home runs in 2016.

 

Can you explain why the White Sox should have reduced home runs compared to the Steroid era when the MLB totals really aren't down?

 

Thank you.

Edited September 22, 2016 by Greg Hibbard

[harkness99]

I really don't agree.

 

I think the reason we have been so bad is BECAUSE we have tried to chase power hitting fee agents and they end up being strike out machines.

 

Look at the Royals and Giants of recent years... they are not home run teams.

 

Championship teams have good pitching, good defense and tough outs.

 

How many home run hitters you can round up doesn't equal championship baseball... mayb 1920- early2000 something.

 

But not now.

[Black_Jack29]

Blackjack, ok. I hear you on runs scored.

 

I am, and have been, talking about home runs.

 

The average MLB team hit 190 home runs in 2000.

 

The average MLB team will hit 188 home runs in 2016.

 

Can you explain why the White Sox should have reduced home runs compared to the Steroid era when the MLB totals really aren't down?

 

Thank you.

 

The obvious answer is that the Sox farm system fell apart about a decade ago and is no longer producing offensive talent like Frank, Robin, Maggs, Carlos Lee, etc. But again, home runs are an inferior metric to runs scored. Why are so few teams scoring 850+ runs this season vs. 15-20 years ago? Why are teams like the Yankees and Indians not slugging their way to pennants anymore?

 

The Sox had an excess of offensive talent 15 years ago and mediocre pitching. Now the Sox have excellent pitching, but a dearth of offensive talent. Given their current level of pitching talent, the Sox don't need to hit 200 HRs or score 900+ runs to make the playoffs again. They only need to be average-to-above-average in runs scored to get back to the postseason.

 

[Greg Hibbard]

I really don't agree.

 

I think the reason we have been so bad is BECAUSE we have tried to chase power hitting fee agents and they end up being strike out machines.

 

Look at the Royals and Giants of recent years... they are not home run teams.

 

Championship teams have good pitching, good defense and tough outs.

 

How many home run hitters you can round up doesn't equal championship baseball... mayb 1920- early2000 something.

 

But not now.

 

Ok, I'll look at the Giants and Royals....if you take a look at this link.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/sort/HRFactor

[Greg Hibbard]

I mean, I can't really believe that I have to convince some of you guys that maybe we should build the team we are competing with around the ballpark where we play 81 of our games, but I guess here we are.

[Black_Jack29]

I mean, I can't really believe that I have to convince some of you guys that maybe we should build the team we are competing with around the ballpark where we play 81 of our games, but I guess here we are.

 

I really can't believe you're claiming that Eaton, Melky, and Anderson are hurting us offensively, but I guess here we are.

 

[Greg Hibbard]

I really can't believe you're claiming that Eaton, Melky, and Anderson are hurting us offensively, but I guess here we are.

 

Again, I have said all are good players. They don't hit enough home runs for the positions they occupy, given the rest of our offense. Period. LF and RF are power hitter positions where you typically get 25-35 homers a year and well north of .800 OPS.