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2017 MLB DRAFT


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QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ May 31, 2017 -> 08:19 AM)
We have the prospect profile on Jordon Adell coming today. After reading the reaction to Jeren Kendall, I'm not expecting the reaction to Adell to be very positive

 

Looking forward to reading it. The Sox organization has not proven to be very good in getting players with fringy hit tools to the major leagues, so I thinkSoxtalk would be concerned about a Kendall or Adell selection. Although I'm sure we all would warm upto either of them if they were the pick.

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QUOTE (GermanSock @ May 31, 2017 -> 02:08 AM)
still I don't like smith due to that reason. if he was a middle infielder that would be no big deal but at 1B he doesn't have the fallback option if the power doesn't develope. I mean some of the no power 1B prospects do develope power at some point (or at age 30 in yonder alonsos case:)) but many also never develope it (like james loney). it is also interesting whether it is an exit velo thing or a swing plane/launch angle thing like in alonsos cases who always hit the ball hard but swung too level and now swings with more of an uppercut to get it in the air more.

 

smith won't be a 1 HR guy but there is a pretty good chance that he will be like a 15 HR guy with a wood bat and that doesn't really play at 1B. he will hit and there is a chance he becomes a star and hits 30 HR but for a 1B only prospects that is too many "Ifs" in my opinion.

This is too reductive IMO. Through his glove, batting average, OBP and baserunning, a player could be a perfectly fine 1B with only 15-20 HRs per year.

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QUOTE (Dam8610 @ May 31, 2017 -> 12:06 AM)
Collins's K rate was 19.3% his last year, and 19.5% for his Miami career. Kendall's K rate is 25% this season and 24% for his career. That's a significant difference.

 

So, I clearly called out K/AB right? Not quoting K rate but purposefully removing BBs from the equation. Those are the K%s that I called out. When BBs are removed (clearly an advantage for Hiura and Collins over Kendall), but when that result is removed, their K numbers aren't that far apart.

 

 

Another consideration in their K numbers -at least for comparing Hiura and Kendall - should be their competition. For the record, I am not an expert on college baseball, but I do know that the SEC has been the premier baseball league for quite some time. Kendall has been in a conference with guys like AJ Puk, Dane Dunning, Dakota Hudson, Robert Tyler, Nathan Kirby. All of whom have been drafted in the first round the last 2 years. And guys like Alex Faedo, Tanner Houck, and Alex Lange, who are being projected as first rounders this year. If you were to put him in the Big West, like Hiura, I would certainly expect his K rate would drop. Perhaps significantly. If you put Hiura in the SEC, I think it is a pretty fair bet that his K rate would rise.

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QUOTE (GermanSock @ May 31, 2017 -> 02:08 AM)
still I don't like smith due to that reason. if he was a middle infielder that would be no big deal but at 1B he doesn't have the fallback option if the power doesn't develope. I mean some of the no power 1B prospects do develope power at some point (or at age 30 in yonder alonsos case:)) but many also never develope it (like james loney). it is also interesting whether it is an exit velo thing or a swing plane/launch angle thing like in alonsos cases who always hit the ball hard but swung too level and now swings with more of an uppercut to get it in the air more.

 

smith won't be a 1 HR guy but there is a pretty good chance that he will be like a 15 HR guy with a wood bat and that doesn't really play at 1B. he will hit and there is a chance he becomes a star and hits 30 HR but for a 1B only prospects that is too many "Ifs" in my opinion.

 

 

A guy I think about every time I read about Smith is Brandon Belt. He K's more, but lots of walks medium power, good hitter good defender type.

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At this point if I am the Sox, my targets for the pick are

 

Haseley, Gore, or someone that slides (McKay or Lewis).

 

If those guys are gone I am moving on to Burger and Hiura and seeing who I can cut the best deal with. Both the bats will play and both have some defensive questions so I am going to try and get a discount and see if I can go strong after a HS player that slipped into round 2. Targeting someone like Quentin Holmes, Bubba Thompson, Nick Allen, or Hagen Danner you could also take a swing at Brent Rooker should he still be available.

 

You could try and cut a deal with Kendall to try and halt his slide, I really wanted the Sox to pick him out of HS in the third round, but you can not draft him if your scouts don't feel there is something in the swing that can be fixed.

 

In round three I would redraft Bryce Montes De Oca.

 

Round four I would target a college senior to get some savings on.

 

Round five I am getting Jake Adams from Iowa who is leading D1 baseball in HR's and has a 1.169 OPS.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 31, 2017 -> 10:07 AM)
The comp I read was John Olerud.

 

Is it just me or is that the most overused comp in mlb draft reports? Seems to be 4-5 Olerud comps every year, has there been a major league 1b like Olerud in last 10 years? Maybe Belt.

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QUOTE (bmags @ May 31, 2017 -> 11:36 AM)
Is it just me or is that the most overused comp in mlb draft reports? Seems to be 4-5 Olerud comps every year, has there been a major league 1b like Olerud in last 10 years? Maybe Belt.

 

Casey Kotchman maybe. Elite 1B defense, limited power, decent contact skills.

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QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ May 31, 2017 -> 12:15 PM)
Kendall and Adell are 1A & 1B for me.

 

If somehow J.B Bukauskas slips to 11, I'd run to the podium and make him my selection.

 

Same. JB is my pitcher of choice if available. Aside from Gore.

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QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ May 31, 2017 -> 01:15 PM)
Kendall and Adell are 1A & 1B for me.

 

If somehow J.B Bukauskas slips to 11, I'd run to the podium and make him my selection.

 

Bukauskas is a 6' righty with a lot of effort in his delivery...reminds me of a certain extremely questionable 1st round pick we already have in the organization. No thanks. I'd also be very surprised if he doesn't have a major arm injury within 2/3 years

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QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ May 31, 2017 -> 10:53 AM)
Casey Kotchman maybe. Elite 1B defense, limited power, decent contact skills.

 

Hosmer or Smoak? Sort of...Mark Grace is the name that comes to mind.

 

Speaking of contact, Schwarber with 60 k's in 175 at bats now. 210ish, 24 homers and 750ish career ops.

Edited by caulfield12
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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ May 31, 2017 -> 04:10 PM)
Hosmer or Smoak? Sort of...Mark Grace is the name that comes to mind.

 

Speaking of contact, Schwarber with 60 k's in 175 at bats now. 210ish, 24 homers and 750ish career ops.

 

Olerud career slash

295/398/465 roughly

 

Smoak

213/310/405

 

Hosmer is closer but lesser. Smoak isn't same atmosphere.

 

Olerud gets thrown around a ton, but its likely he is the absolute ceiling, not the likely comp.

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QUOTE (bmags @ May 31, 2017 -> 04:19 PM)
Olerud career slash

295/398/465 roughly

 

Smoak

213/310/405

 

Hosmer is closer but lesser. Smoak isn't same atmosphere.

 

Olerud gets thrown around a ton, but its likely he is the absolute ceiling, not the likely comp.

Olerud also had a .363/.473/.599 season. If Olerud was the likely comp Smith would be a top 5 pick easy.

 

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QUOTE (bmags @ May 31, 2017 -> 04:19 PM)
Olerud career slash

295/398/465 roughly

 

Smoak

213/310/405

 

Hosmer is closer but lesser. Smoak isn't same atmosphere.

 

Olerud gets thrown around a ton, but its likely he is the absolute ceiling, not the likely comp.

 

Aren't comps usually based on ceilings when you are drafting kids? I mean no one in their right minds thinks these are major league ready kids as of today, so the expectation is that they are going to grow and develop into those projections, not that they are those guys right now.

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QUOTE (bmags @ May 31, 2017 -> 03:19 PM)
Olerud career slash

295/398/465 roughly

 

Smoak

213/310/405

 

Hosmer is closer but lesser. Smoak isn't same atmosphere.

 

Olerud gets thrown around a ton, but its likely he is the absolute ceiling, not the likely comp.

 

This year's version of Smoak, which seems to be an anomaly in an Avi Garcia type of way.

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