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2017 MLB DRAFT


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QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Feb 25, 2017 -> 08:32 PM)
Alex from Fangraphs said that the Sox are looking to acquire athletic guys that play premium positions, which is something they lack in their system

 

 

This isn't surprising. Nick Hostetler learned from Schuerholz's Braves. Power pitching and athletes was the model.

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QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Feb 25, 2017 -> 08:32 PM)
Alex from Fangraphs said that the Sox are looking to acquire athletic guys that play premium positions, which is something they lack in their system

 

Beer might not go 1:1 overall because he projects to be a 1B at the next level

 

He is a great hitter, but not overly athletic and is pretty limited in the outfield I'm hearing from scouts

 

Very few college outfielders have gone no 1 overall, let alone one who projects to play 1st base

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QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Feb 25, 2017 -> 08:32 PM)
Alex from Fangraphs said that the Sox are looking to acquire athletic guys that play premium positions, which is something they lack in their system

 

Beer might not go 1:1 overall because he projects to be a 1B at the next level

 

He is a great hitter, but not overly athletic and is pretty limited in the outfield I'm hearing from scouts

 

Very few college outfielders have gone no 1 overall, let alone one who projects to play 1st base

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QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Feb 26, 2017 -> 07:00 PM)
This isn't surprising. Nick Hostetler learned from Schuerholz's Braves. Power pitching and athletes was the model.

 

And guys with really high ceilings

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QUOTE (steveno89 @ Feb 28, 2017 -> 09:40 AM)
Beer might not go 1:1 overall because he projects to be a 1B at the next level

 

He is a great hitter, but not overly athletic and is pretty limited in the outfield I'm hearing from scouts

 

Very few college outfielders have gone no 1 overall, let alone one who projects to play 1st base

 

Pat Burrell, Darin Erstad, Nevin didn't play a premium psotion

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They were productive big leaguers for a number of years, so there's that. Beer will probably give you the most certainty of a big league career, at the very least.

 

But, I remember the same thing said about Smoak. He did give you big league innings!

 

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Actually Pat Burrell had >10 WAR his in his cost-controlled years, I bet he holds up pretty well. Erstad had 20 WAR in his cost-controlled years. So I think the main problem was their long unproductive tail, but overall for the drafting team that's pretty good.

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QUOTE (bmags @ Mar 1, 2017 -> 01:11 PM)
Actually Pat Burrell had >10 WAR his in his cost-controlled years, I bet he holds up pretty well. Erstad had 20 WAR in his cost-controlled years. So I think the main problem was their long unproductive tail, but overall for the drafting team that's pretty good.

 

This. Especially Erstad was well worth the draft pick.

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Well, I flat-out disagree.

 

I think if you're drafting 1-1 you're hoping it turns out a little better than "economically viable" over the life of the contract or whatever.

 

You're hoping for a high-impact player, potentially a perennial AS...I don't think Pat Burrell/Phil Nevin/Darin Erstad are the poster boy for that.

 

If we go into the 2018 draft and select some guy at 1-1 or even 1-2 and the comps are Phil Nevin or Darin Erstad I am going to be a bit disappointed.

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QUOTE (iamshack @ Mar 1, 2017 -> 10:52 PM)
Well, I flat-out disagree.

 

I think if you're drafting 1-1 you're hoping it turns out a little better than "economically viable" over the life of the contract or whatever.

 

You're hoping for a high-impact player, potentially a perennial AS...I don't think Pat Burrell/Phil Nevin/Darin Erstad are the poster boy for that.

 

If we go into the 2018 draft and select some guy at 1-1 or even 1-2 and the comps are Phil Nevin or Darin Erstad I am going to be a bit disappointed.

 

20 WAR is really good! I think the thing is most Phils fans would probably say Burrell did not max out his potential, and many would say same for Erstad. Easy to see for Erstad because he had an 8 WAR season coupled by many frustrating seasons. BUT, was an all-star and finished 8th while being a good outfielder.

 

Burrell finished with some good stats but more when looking at them by today's standards. But it's pretty easy to find articles about Phils fans being disappointed in Burrell, thinking he'd be the next Mike Schmidt or whomever. His bat was never as good as they hoped it would be.

 

Looking back at that 1998 draft, it wasn't very good. I think you'd rather have peak JD Drew years (sorry Phillies) but he'd probably be behind Mulder.

 

So the point is, at 1-1, shoot for the stars, and you may still end up with a disappointing player that was also maybe an all star or at least one of the best players on your team.

 

But, looking at this list:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_first...all_draft_picks

 

Easy to forget how tainted 1-1 was when you had a bunch of players taken because they were cheaper. 1-1 looks a HELL of a lot better the last 5 years.

 

I'd prefer a shortstop but if Beer ends up with Schwarbers bat and Melkys current defense, I'd be okay with that. Probably a many time all-star.

 

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QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Mar 2, 2017 -> 03:10 AM)
I think a lot of people are overvaluing Seth Beer, yeah I've been on the bandwagon for a while (I prefer Gray to him) but let's stop labeling him the savior.

 

Probably. He loses a lot of luster as a 1b. But dingers are fun.

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