Price rising for Sale and Q

[Eminor3rd]

The problem with wanting both Benintendi AND Moncada is

 

A. Boston wouldn't do that

 

This is really the key piece of information.

[Jose Abreu]

I can get behind the control thing, it just seems like people think he's a bad player.

 

 

 

He didn't, though. He went from a .355 wOBA to a .354. His K rate actually dropped significantly while his walk rate stayed essentially the same. His average and OBP rose. If anything, he provided evidence that his strong half season in 2015 wasn't a fluke.

Sorry, let me clarify. I meant he fell off this year in the 2nd half. 1st half OPS was .926, 2nd half OPS was .728. That is a warning sign to me.

[Balta1701]

Sorry, let me clarify. I meant he fell off this year in the 2nd half. 1st half OPS was .926, 2nd half OPS was .728. That is a warning sign to me.

In the first half of 2016 his K-rate had dropped to 20% and his BABIP was .342. It doesn't look like he was making unusually hard contact - had more ground balls than usual, etc. In the 2nd half his K-rate went back up but still not to where it was in previous seasons and his BABIP was .274 - and his # of ground balls actually went down in the 2nd half. His walk rate dropped a little in the 2nd half but basically still hung around 10%.

 

I might be missing something but I don't see any obvious reason to think those 1st/2nd half splits are anything other than fairly random noise around a mean.

[Y2Jimmy0]

For me, I want Benintendi because I think he's going to be a star. I also doubt that Boston trades Moncada because of what they've invested in him. What I'd love in return: OF Benintendi, 3B Devers, LHP Groome, RHP Kopech, C Swihart. What I would take: OF Benintendi, 3B Devers, OF Basabi, C Swihart, LHP Rodriguez, and C Swihart. Either of those I would do.

[Bob Sacamano]

For me, I want Benintendi because I think he's going to be a star. I also doubt that Boston trades Moncada because of what they've invested in him. What I'd love in return: OF Benintendi, 3B Devers, LHP Groome, RHP Kopech, C Swihart. What I would take: OF Benintendi, 3B Devers, OF Basabi, C Swihart, LHP Rodriguez, and C Swihart. Either of those I would do.

 

Me too.

[bmags]

I think my dream package that would be out of asking price for red sox is benintendi/devers/rodriguez/kopech/2 wild cards

 

I think I'd be disappointed in less than benintendi/devers/rodriguez/2-3 wildcards.

 

They may not be the beat your socks off packages people wanted, but I think some are motivated off more the idea of punishing the team we trade with than actually finding a deal with both parties. Though Sale/Q are amazing and cheap, there is still a lot of risk that they get injured and if you trade your whole farm system - you are out of a job. There needs to be some realism and frankly I think most red sox fans would think giving up a benintendi level prospect alone gets them out of giving up a rodriguez/devers 2nd tier.

[Dunt]

For me, I want Benintendi because I think he's going to be a star. I also doubt that Boston trades Moncada because of what they've invested in him. What I'd love in return: OF Benintendi, 3B Devers, LHP Groome, RHP Kopech, C Swihart. What I would take: OF Benintendi, 3B Devers, OF Basabi, C Swihart, LHP Rodriguez, and C Swihart. Either of those I would do.

 

I would be happy with either of those packages. Benintendi is more appealing to me than Bradley and I think Devers is a must because you probably let Frazier walk.

[Y2Jimmy0]

I think my dream package that would be out of asking price for red sox is benintendi/devers/rodriguez/kopech/2 wild cards

 

I think I'd be disappointed in less than benintendi/devers/rodriguez/2-3 wildcards.

 

They may not be the beat your socks off packages people wanted, but I think some are motivated off more the idea of punishing the team we trade with than actually finding a deal with both parties. Though Sale/Q are amazing and cheap, there is still a lot of risk that they get injured and if you trade your whole farm system - you are out of a job. There needs to be some realism and frankly I think most red sox fans would think giving up a benintendi level prospect alone gets them out of giving up a rodriguez/devers 2nd tier.

 

 

I think that's ultimately what they'd end up getting. Beninetendi/Devers, pitching, some wildcards and possibly Swihart.

[bmags]

I think that's ultimately what they'd end up getting. Beninetendi/Devers, pitching, some wildcards and possibly Swihart.

 

Right, and it's not like wildcards aren't good returns. Hell, we started penciling in TIlson as our starting CF and he was not even a cardinals top ten prospect. In the Peavy trade the wildcards ended up our best returns.

[Bob Sacamano]

Yeah I'm willing to take 2-3 guys in Single-A that may be farther away if it means we get Benintendi/Devers and Rodriguez or Bradley/Moncada and Rodriguez with it. In either deal you end up with a starting CF and a SP under control until 2022. Heck, you could probably get Swihart thrown in as a final 5th/6th piece and he'd be our starting C.

Edited October 18, 2016 by soxfan2014

[iamshack]

I can get behind the control thing, it just seems like people think he's a bad player.

 

 

 

He didn't, though. He went from a .355 wOBA to a .354. His K rate actually dropped significantly while his walk rate stayed essentially the same. His average and OBP rose. If anything, he provided evidence that his strong half season in 2015 wasn't a fluke.

He went on a monster run at the beginning of the summer for about a month and then was pretty pedestrian from there on out. I'm not saying that shouldn't count, but the way his numbers fell out this season are not necessarily indicative of a guy that was steadily on base and knocking in runs all season long the way you might think.

[southsider2k5]

He went on a monster run at the beginning of the summer for about a month and then was pretty pedestrian from there on out. I'm not saying that shouldn't count, but the way his numbers fell out this season are not necessarily indicative of a guy that was steadily on base and knocking in runs all season long the way you might think.

 

Realistically, no player is going to be perfectly consistent. There will be streaks and slumps that arrive at the season end numbers.

[iamshack]

Realistically, no player is going to be perfectly consistent. There will be streaks and slumps that arrive at the season end numbers.

Yeah, for sure...but he had a REALLY abnormal streak for about 30 games where he was just unconsious...I suspect that type of run might be an outlier even amongst typical hot streaks.

 

For me, I would prefer more consistency.

 

Edit: His Post-All-Star splits were .233/.315/.412/.728

Edited October 18, 2016 by iamshack

[southsider2k5]

Yeah, for sure...but he had a REALLY abnormal streak for about 30 games where he was just unconsious...I suspect that type of run might be an outlier even amongst typical hot streaks.

 

For me, I would prefer more consistency.

 

Edit: His Post-All-Star splits were .233/.315/.412/.728

 

The sad thing is that off of the top of my head, that is a probably a pretty nice improvement over what we put out there in CF all last year. And that is without factoring in anything on the defensive side of things. Even if he hits at his worst, JBJ would provide the Sox with a ton of improvement in CF. We are talking wins worth of improvement. If he hits even normal or better than normal? 5 wins? 6 wins?

[GGajewski18]

Benintendi, Devers, Groome, and Kopech are a must for me. Add 1 or 2 more like Swihart or Rodriguez and we have a deal.

[OmarComing25]

I'd probably be OK with Benintendi/Devers/Kopech/2 wild cards.

[bmags]

Benintendi, Devers, Groome, and Kopech are a must for me. Add 1 or 2 more like Swihart or Rodriguez and we have a deal.

 

You act like Rodriguez is a throw-in.

[bmags]

I'd probably be OK with Benintendi/Devers/Kopech/2 wild cards.

 

I probably would be too. Especially since Benintendi had a nice debut with good OBP.

 

What has turned me to these lower packages is that "more limited" package from red sox (i.e. we don't take their entire top ten farm players people want) is that I really like benintendi/kopech and would prefer a package around that over the top 4 prospects from most other orgs. The quality of those 'spects stands above rest.

[Dunt]

The sad thing is that off of the top of my head, that is a probably a pretty nice improvement over what we put out there in CF all last year. And that is without factoring in anything on the defensive side of things. Even if he hits at his worst, JBJ would provide the Sox with a ton of improvement in CF. We are talking wins worth of improvement. If he hits even normal or better than normal? 5 wins? 6 wins?

 

Ya, even if he puts up at ~.720 OPS, that's still about a 5 win replacement. Having him and Eaton in the same OF makes that OF defense damn near elite.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Ya, even if he puts up at ~.720 OPS, that's still about a 5 win replacement. Having him and Eaton in the same OF makes that OF defense damn near elite.

Even though he had a terrible year, I'd rather take a flier on Carlos Gomez than request JBJ as the primary return piece in a Sale trade. If Moncada or Ben aren't included, it's an absolute failure of a trade IMO even with JBJ and other well-regarded Red Sox prospects. I'll be pissed if they trade Sale for a package of JBJ, Devers, and Kopech plus lower level prospects or something similar.

 

Despite a poor season offensively, Gomez still managed an fWAR of 0.9 over 118 games and can be had for VERY cheap this offseason.

[Black_Jack29]

If Moncada or Ben aren't included, it's an absolute failure of a trade IMO even with JBJ and other well-regarded Red Sox prospects. I'll be pissed if they trade Sale for a package of JBJ, Devers, and Kopech plus lower level prospects or something similar.

 

I agree with the above. The Sox need to get either Benintendi or Moncada as part of the package for Sale.

 

[bmags]

Even though he had a terrible year, I'd rather take a flier on Carlos Gomez than request JBJ as the primary return piece in a Sale trade. If Moncada or Ben aren't included, it's an absolute failure of a trade IMO even with JBJ and other well-regarded Red Sox prospects. I'll be pissed if they trade Sale for a package of JBJ, Devers, and Kopech plus lower level prospects or something similar.

 

Despite a poor season offensively, Gomez still managed an fWAR of 0.9 over 118 games and can be had for VERY cheap this offseason.

 

He's very cheap because he's been bad for a while and is older. Sox don't need "good enough". We've been doing the "We had -1 war in CF, even getting *Average* production will be a big improvement!" for 3 years now. We need all stars, multiple. But to choose between different options i'd be through the moon getting JBJ if the other option was Carlos Gomez.

[iamshack]

The sad thing is that off of the top of my head, that is a probably a pretty nice improvement over what we put out there in CF all last year. And that is without factoring in anything on the defensive side of things. Even if he hits at his worst, JBJ would provide the Sox with a ton of improvement in CF. We are talking wins worth of improvement. If he hits even normal or better than normal? 5 wins? 6 wins?

Yeah, I agree it is an improvement, but that isn't the question necessarily. The question is, do we believe JBJ is worth what Boston will think he's worth? The answer to that question will undoubtedly be "no," but really it will come down to how close are we in terms of those assessments.

 

At the end of the day, the centerpiece in a Sale trade needs to be someone we are rock-solid confident in. For whatever reasons, perhaps irrational as they may be, I just don't have that sense of JBJ as the centerpiece.

 

Maybe it's more that I would prefer to diversify the return amongst more prospects...which again, may be slightly irrational.

[southsider2k5]

Yeah, I agree it is an improvement, but that isn't the question necessarily. The question is, do we believe JBJ is worth what Boston will think he's worth? The answer to that question will undoubtedly be "no," but really it will come down to how close are we in terms of those assessments.

 

At the end of the day, the centerpiece in a Sale trade needs to be someone we are rock-solid confident in. For whatever reasons, perhaps irrational as they may be, I just don't have that sense of JBJ as the centerpiece.

 

Maybe it's more that I would prefer to diversify the return amongst more prospects...which again, may be slightly irrational.

 

I don't think JBJ would be the centerpiece. I think he is a piece. You have to get a guy like Moncada and a lot of others to make this work.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

He's very cheap because he's been bad for a while and is older. Sox don't need "good enough". We've been doing the "We had -1 war in CF, even getting *Average* production will be a big improvement!" for 3 years now. We need all stars, multiple. But to choose between different options i'd be through the moon getting JBJ if the other option was Carlos Gomez.

It's not a 1 for 1 comparison. Acquiring JBJ comes at the expense of Chris Sale and guys like Devers, Kopech, etc. are 3 or 4 years away (at best) from contributing to the big league team in a meaningful way. JBJ is gone by then, so what's the point? Gomez costs nothing. Well not nothing exactly, but probably a contract similar to what the Sox gave Jackson last offseason. If you trade Sale, you have to build it around guys like Moncada and Ben that contribute immediately to the big league roster unless you are going burn it down full scale rebuild, which is simply not realistic under this management.