Price rising for Sale and Q

[Bob Sacamano]

Indeed. He was a good prospect, never elite. He has a great few months, and his value is now of an elite+

 

That should also have held for Trayce, who was a fair prospect with a great 2 months in MLB...should have been able to sell him of the value of a very good prospect...he wasn't.

 

Buying high is not the way to approach things. Similarly , July was the time to grab Benintendi.

 

Should have been able to? We did sell high on him.

Edited October 29, 2016 by soxfan2014

[southsider2k5]

Soooo you have to feel that pitching is as valuable as ever right now...

 

Yep. There have got to be teams kicking themselves right now.

[Chicago White Sox]

Yep. There have got to be teams kicking themselves right now.

I'm hoping both the Sox and potential buyers are far more realistic on the value of Sale & Quintana this offseason. The value of elite starting pitching should be apparent after these playoffs, especially with a well-rounded and dangerous Cubs team likely to be in the postseason mix. Teams can't be expecting us to take half-ass packages, not in this market.

 

At the same time, the Sox can't overplay their hand and expect a franchise crippling return. Yes, the package should definitely sting a bit, but it also must make the acquiring team a more dangerous contender in the short-term. We should not be asking for established stars (i.e. Mookie Bette) or require multiple major league pieces if it creates too many holes.

 

I still think a trade with Boston makes the most sense. A Sale for Benintendi, Devers, Kopech, Rodriguez, & Groome deal is fair for both sides IMO. That's a lot of talent coming back our way and if such a deal is on the table, the Sox should not blink.

[caulfield12]

I'm hoping both the Sox and potential buyers are far more realistic on the value of Sale & Quintana this offseason. The value of elite starting pitching should be apparent after these playoffs, especially with a well-rounded and dangerous Cubs team likely to be in the postseason mix. Teams can't be expecting us to take half-ass packages, not in this market.

 

At the same time, the Sox can't overplay their hand and expect a franchise crippling return. Yes, the package should definitely sting a bit, but it also must make the acquiring team a more dangerous contender in the short-term. We should not be asking for established stars (i.e. Mookie Bette) or require multiple major league pieces if it creates too many holes.

 

I still think a trade with Boston makes the most sense. A Sale for Benintendi, Devers, Kopech, Rodriguez, & Groome deal is fair for both sides IMO. That's a lot of talent coming back our way and if such a deal is on the table, the Sox should not blink.

 

They'd probably have the choice of just one of Kopech or Groome...your package seems to be a bit too much for the Red Sox to give up. Perhaps they try to throw in Shaw/Holt instead of a prospect.

Edited October 29, 2016 by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

They'd probably have the choice of just one of Kopech or Groome...your package seems to be a bit too much for the Red Sox to give up. Perhaps they try to throw in Shaw/Holt instead of a prospect.

I'm just pointing out what I think is fair value for arguably a top 3 pitcher in all of baseball under contract for three more years at a ridiculously below market rate. The Red Sox may very well say it's too much, but given what elite pitching has been going for recently, it feels about right to me. Benintendi & Devers are the two headliners and I'm not making a deal without both of them (or one of them with Moncada). While I like Kopech, he's somewhat overrated due to his pure stuff. Rodriguez has accomplished nothing at the major league level, but obviously has talent. And Groome is a high draft pick who is years away from contributing. All three are interesting arms, but are also far from sure things and none are elite prospects. This package is definitely better than the Hamels one, but it also should be given Sale is a far better pitcher and provides much more surplus value in his contract. If the Red Sox got Sale for this package, I think they instantly become the favorites for the AL pennant.

Edited October 29, 2016 by Chicago White Sox

[beautox]

They'd probably have the choice of just one of Kopech or Groome...your package seems to be a bit too much for the Red Sox to give up. Perhaps they try to throw in Shaw/Holt instead of a prospect.

 

This offseason will be interesting because its a sellers market and the premium that was applied during the deadline should be even more pronounced when a 36 year old Rich Hill is the best arm followed by Nova and Hellickson.

 

Chris's surplus value per fangraphs trade deadline article is somewhere around 150mil and thats not taking into account a premium for the seller's market.

 

If you go by this article you get a good understanding of what "fair value" is for top 100 prospects.

 

a package of Benintendi, Devers, Groome & Swihart would likely be "fair".

 

Benintendi - 73.5m

Devers - 62m

Groome - 29.8m

Swihart - ??

 

Sox get what many considered the #1 arm in last years draft that has #1 ceiling. 2 Major league ready pieces up the middle in Benintendi and Swihart all though Benintendi is likely better suited in left field and swihart may just be a LF/1B/DH a rebuilding team can afford to put them in center field and catcher and a high upside bat in Devers, that may or may not stick at 3B.

Edited October 30, 2016 by beautox

[Chicago White Sox]

This offseason will be interesting because its a sellers market and the premium that was applied during the deadline should be even more pronounced when a 36 year old Rich Hill is the best arm followed by Nova and Hellickson.

 

Chris's surplus value per fangraphs trade deadline article is somewhere around 150mil and thats not taking into account a premium for the seller's market.

 

If you go by this article you get a good understanding of what "fair value" is for top 100 prospects.

 

a package of Benintendi, Devers, Groome & Swihart would likely be "fair".

 

Benintendi - 73.5m

Devers - 62m

Groome - 29.8m

Swihart - ??

 

Sox get what many considered the #1 arm in last years draft that has #1 ceiling. 2 Major league ready pieces up the middle in Benintendi and Swihart all though Benintendi is likely better suited in left field and swihart may just be a LF/1B/DH a rebuilding team can afford to put them in center field and catcher and a high upside bat in Devers, that may or may not stick at 3B.

This is a solid way to evaluate fair value, but those projected surplus values are far more risky than Sale's and would need to be discounted accordingly. Additionally, there should be a premium for Sale given the limited supply of starters available (as you indicated) and the significant value of dominant pitching in October (which is frequently ignored from these exercises).

 

I still think fair value for Sale is a package like Benintendi, Devers, Kopech, Rodriguez, & Groome.

[soxforlife05]

How can you possibly compute surplus value for players that haven't even proven their value? Sale has the others are complete question marks. You can't assign value like that to players in A ball.

[caulfield12]

I agree that they're more likely to deal Swihart as he's a bit superfluous now...and the White Sox have the need at catcher.

 

With all the focus on relief arms and having already dealt for Kimbrel, they might try to double down and go for the superpen approach with Kopech.

 

Benintendi or Moncada, Devers, Groome, Swihart and Rodriguez is pretty close to fair. Sox get two pitchers, two potential impact position players and fill the catching spot with a still promising young player. Maybe the Red Sox prefer to trade Kopech over Groome, not sure. Groome obviously has more question marks hanging over him, but unlimited potential. Kopech could turn into another Daniel Bard.

 

[SCCWS]

I agree that they're more likely to deal Swihart as he's a bit superfluous now...and the White Sox have the need at catcher.

 

With all the focus on relief arms and having already dealt for Kimbrel, they might try to double down and go for the superpen approach with Kopech.

 

Benintendi or Moncada, Devers, Groome, Swihart and Rodriguez is pretty close to fair. Sox get two pitchers, two potential impact position players and fill the catching spot with a still promising young player. Maybe the Red Sox prefer to trade Kopech over Groome, not sure. Groome obviously has more question marks hanging over him, but unlimited potential. Kopech could turn into another Daniel Bard.

 

A couple of thoughts:

 

Swihart was not superfluous, he didn't cut it. The catching job was his last spring and he really struggled defensively before being sent back to AAA to learn left-field. Maybe in a new organization he can start all over again, but he will be 25 and took a year off from catching in 2016.

Red Sox biggest prospect weakness is starting pitching . They traded their highest rated for Pomeranz so my guess is Groome is now their #1 since Kopech my end up being a reliever due to his limited pitch selection. I think Rodriguez can be had but not both him and Groome.

Moncada was shut down last week with what they called a minor thumb injury. Not sure how that would play out in any trade discussions.

[caulfield12]

A couple of thoughts:

 

Swihart was not superfluous, he didn't cut it. The catching job was his last spring and he really struggled defensively before being sent back to AAA to learn left-field. Maybe in a new organization he can start all over again, but he will be 25 and took a year off from catching in 2016.

Red Sox biggest prospect weakness is starting pitching . They traded their highest rated for Pomeranz so my guess is Groome is now their #1 since Kopech my end up being a reliever due to his limited pitch selection. I think Rodriguez can be had but not both him and Groome.

Moncada was shut down last week with what they called a minor thumb injury. Not sure how that would play out in any trade discussions.

 

I meant in the sense he's now a spare part, like Shaw, Rusney Castillo and Holt. Vasquez at catcher is another enigma. They still have to figure out a place for Moncada to play, and they probably don't want to start him as DH when he has so many (unrefined) physical tools. Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez have to fit as well.

 

And they're already talking about Bautista or Encarnacion coming on board at DH.

 

Moncada probably will end up at 3b or a corner of spot if Benitendi's dealt. His best position might be 2b, but Pedroia blocks him there for now.

Edited October 30, 2016 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

A couple of thoughts:

 

Swihart was not superfluous, he didn't cut it. The catching job was his last spring and he really struggled defensively before being sent back to AAA to learn left-field. Maybe in a new organization he can start all over again, but he will be 25 and took a year off from catching in 2016.

Red Sox biggest prospect weakness is starting pitching . They traded their highest rated for Pomeranz so my guess is Groome is now their #1 since Kopech my end up being a reliever due to his limited pitch selection. I think Rodriguez can be had but not both him and Groome.

Moncada was shut down last week with what they called a minor thumb injury. Not sure how that would play out in any trade discussions.

 

I meant in the sense he's now a spare part, like Shaw, Rusney Castillo and Holt. They still have to figure out a place for Moncada to play, and they probably don't want to start him as DH when he has so many (unrefined) physical tools. Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez have to fit as well.

 

And they're already talking about Bautista or Encarnacion coming on board at DH.

 

Moncada probably will end up at 3b or a corner of spot if Benitendi's dealt. His best position might be 2b, but Pedroia blocks him there for now.

[southsider2k5]

An impossible thought from last night... Say the Cubs do get knocked out by the Indians. If the Cubs come to the White Sox with a player package starting around Kyle Schwarber, could a deal get done? What would it take to get a deal done?

[GGajewski18]

An impossible thought from last night... Say the Cubs do get knocked out by the Indians. If the Cubs come to the White Sox with a player package starting around Kyle Schwarber, could a deal get done? What would it take to get a deal done?

 

Schwarber, Baez, Almora, and Jimenez

[GreatScott82]

An impossible thought from last night... Say the Cubs do get knocked out by the Indians. If the Cubs come to the White Sox with a player package starting around Kyle Schwarber, could a deal get done? What would it take to get a deal done?

This is an intriguing, yet impossible thought for sure. I think everyone knows that Schwarber is a DH playing in the NL. If the Cubs were smart, they would deal Schwarber for a front line starting pitcher. If the Cubs want Sale, the White Sox will likely request Schwarber AND Baez. I just don't see the Cubs ever giving up on Baez. Although, if the Cubs do enter a bidding war with Boston, Texas etc-- a Baez/Schwarber package might be the most intriguing.

[southsider2k5]

This is an intriguing, yet impossible thought for sure. I think everyone knows that Schwarber is a DH playing in the NL. If the Cubs were smart, they would deal Schwarber for a front line starting pitcher. If the Cubs want Sale, the White Sox will likely request Schwarber AND Baez. I just don't see the Cubs ever giving up on Baez. Although, if the Cubs do enter a bidding war with Boston, Texas etc-- a Baez/Schwarber package might be the most intriguing.

 

This entire post is almost exactly what I was thinking.

[bmags]

Considering the cubs fans belief that the only reason they are losing is lack of schwarber, I think they'll be fine with his terrible LF play they respect his bat so much.

 

 

[beautox]

I meant in the sense he's now a spare part, like Shaw, Rusney Castillo and Holt. They still have to figure out a place for Moncada to play, and they probably don't want to start him as DH when he has so many (unrefined) physical tools. Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez have to fit as well.

 

And they're already talking about Bautista or Encarnacion coming on board at DH.

 

Moncada probably will end up at 3b or a corner of spot if Benitendi's dealt. His best position might be 2b, but Pedroia blocks him there for now.

 

 

An impossible thought from last night... Say the Cubs do get knocked out by the Indians. If the Cubs come to the White Sox with a player package starting around Kyle Schwarber, could a deal get done? What would it take to get a deal done?

 

I agree he is a lottery ticket and no longer a part of bostons future. Boston needed a back stop to step in seamlessly and that wasn't going to happen with Swihart in a new organization like Chicago's he could get a nice long look while Collins develops; worse case he is a bust, best case he can stick behind the dish, median we have a nice bat that can play emergency catcher while playing LF/1B.

 

I'm not against trading with the Cubs, I'm all for what will bring about the fastest change to this organization with impact talent and Schwarber and Baez are def that.

[greg775]

Is there any proof the Sox are even thinking about dealing Sale? I say no way JR is going to trade starting pitching.

[southsider2k5]

Is there any proof the Sox are even thinking about dealing Sale? I say no way JR is going to trade starting pitching.

 

Yeah, because you demand more proof from a baseball team than you do a Presidential candidate.

[GreenSox]

Should have been able to? We did sell high on him.

In no sense was Trayce sold high.

The trade would have been defensible IF the Sox were in a position to win AND they didn't have a gaping hole at CF and pitching depth, particularly in the pen (of course those weaknesses, exacerbated by the trade, are a large reason why the Sox weren't in a position to win).

A savvy trade of Sale plus another year of quality development by the young pitchers, and the Sox could be ready in 2018. But the usual out of Hahn will yield the usual results.

Edited October 30, 2016 by GreenSox

[balfanman]

If, and I realize that it's a big IF, the Cubs do not go all the way this year would they be a possible trade partner for Sale?

 

They certainly have the talent and would be even more desperate to get the job done.

 

I suggested this way back (post 120 I think) but was quickly shot down by others, including Rabbit. Evidently there is something to the " Sox won't deal with the Cubs" thing.

[caulfield12]

Schwarber and Contreras...

[Dam8610]

This is an intriguing, yet impossible thought for sure. I think everyone knows that Schwarber is a DH playing in the NL. If the Cubs were smart, they would deal Schwarber for a front line starting pitcher. If the Cubs want Sale, the White Sox will likely request Schwarber AND Baez. I just don't see the Cubs ever giving up on Baez. Although, if the Cubs do enter a bidding war with Boston, Texas etc-- a Baez/Schwarber package might be the most intriguing.

 

Any Sale to the Cubs deal starts with Bryant and Contreras, though Schwarber would be a nice throw in. They're the Cubs, they would have to worse than Shelby Miller overpay to get Sale.

[caulfield12]

Schwarber, Contreras and Baez won't be the deal.

 

At best, you sub out one of the last two for Jimenez but that's incredibly high-risk for both GM's. If Hahn is anything, he is not a risk-taker.