Price rising for Sale and Q

[Eminor3rd]

Missing on this deal could literally cost the team a decade. Yes, they need an overpay. They need a grand slam home run of a deal.

 

I cannot disagree more. If your strategy is based on taking advantage of a team making an irrational decision, your strategy is bad.

 

If the alternative is to let the talent rot and net nothing, well THAT is the type of thing that sets the franchise back a decade.

 

Taking advantage of market forces to maximize a return by selling at the right time makes sense. The difference between that and stubbornly waiting for someone to give you something EVERYONE knows you won't is huge.

[Eminor3rd]

Agreed. Or you hold. The Sox continue to hold the cards. Remember: Chris Sale - 3 years; Jose Quintana - 4 years.

 

It isn't that simple, though. You have to consider injury risk, the depreciation of value as each year goes away, and then you also have to look ahead a bit at your own chances to compete and the market's opportunities to sell.

[southsider2k5]

I cannot disagree more. If your strategy is based on taking advantage of a team making an irrational decision, your strategy is bad.

 

If the alternative is to let the talent rot and net nothing, well THAT is the type of thing that sets the franchise back a decade.

 

Taking advantage of market forces to maximize a return by selling at the right time makes sense. The difference between that and stubbornly waiting for someone to give you something EVERYONE knows you won't is huge.

 

If the players you get in this deal don't turn out to be huge, not only have you given up all of the developmental time you put into the players, you also wasted the asset you had, and have to start over without both talent and assets.

[Dick Allen]

It isn't that simple, though. You have to consider injury risk, the depreciation of value as each year goes away, and then you also have to look ahead a bit at your own chances to compete and the market's opportunities to sell.

It's pretty much an unprecedented trade to give up an ace signed cheaply for 3 more years. I really don't know if teams would be able to pay that much more than they would if he had 2 years left on his deal, which seems to be when guys get dealt now, and usually at a higher payroll number than Sale requires.

 

To me there is a limit on what teams can and will give up. Yes, he might be less valuable next year, but that doesn't necessarlly mean the package to acquire him will be less.

[bmags]

It's pretty much an unprecedented trade to give up an ace signed cheaply for 3 more years. I really don't know if teams would be able to pay that much more than they would if he had 2 years left on his deal, which seems to be when guys get dealt now, and usually at a higher payroll number than Sale requires.

 

To me there is a limit on what teams can and will give up. Yes, he might be less valuable next year, but that doesn't necessarlly mean the package to acquire him will be less.

 

I am taking the chance that this 2016 class really is as good as it looks. With that in mind this is a good time to sell as you could have that wave of talent arriving in 2019, all young and cheap and can supplement with FA $.

[ChiSox59]

It isn't that simple, though. You have to consider injury risk, the depreciation of value as each year goes away, and then you also have to look ahead a bit at your own chances to compete and the market's opportunities to sell.

 

I agree that now is the right time to strike, but I don't want to the Sox to settle for a so-so package just because. Sale, and Quintana will still have a boatload of trade value next summer, and next offseason.

[ChiSox59]

It's pretty much an unprecedented trade to give up an ace signed cheaply for 3 more years. I really don't know if teams would be able to pay that much more than they would if he had 2 years left on his deal, which seems to be when guys get dealt now, and usually at a higher payroll number than Sale requires.

 

To me there is a limit on what teams can and will give up. Yes, he might be less valuable next year, but that doesn't necessarlly mean the package to acquire him will be less.

 

This too.

[iamshack]

If the players you get in this deal don't turn out to be huge, not only have you given up all of the developmental time you put into the players, you also wasted the asset you had, and have to start over without both talent and assets.

That is the position you find yourself in, however. The luxury of forcing someone to pay an exorbitant price dissipates as you continually fail to place a competitive team on the field. Chris Sale means very little as an asset if you don't liquidate the value of the asset. Otherwise, it's just a waste.

 

Guess what? Other teams know this. Other teams understand we've got to unload these pieces at some point or else they basically spoil. That's why this notion that the White Sox "hold all the cards" is just horses***. Yes, they'd hold all the cards if their fall back position was keeping their assets and competing. However, they've shown no ability to do so.

[bmags]

I don't want to trade Sale for a bad package. Yes, that return the Marlins received for Cabrera was bad and would really hurt as a white sox fan.

 

But we just had someone argue Mike Trout isn't good enough return for Sale.

 

Our diagnosis of bad is going to be subjective. But I think we all agree that some we expect mixtures of top 25/top 100/wildcards to come back. Where I disagree is the tendency to act like all top 25 talent is flat and = in value, where I think certain top ten talents are so good you take less back around them.

 

Others are certain we need to salt the earth of the teams we trade and I just can't get behind that being necessary.

[Dick Allen]

That is the position you find yourself in, however. The luxury of forcing someone to pay an exorbitant price dissipates as you continually fail to place a competitive team on the field. Chris Sale means very little as an asset if you don't liquidate the value of the asset. Otherwise, it's just a waste.

 

Guess what? Other teams know this. Other teams understand we've got to unload these pieces at some point or else they basically spoil. That's why this notion that the White Sox "hold all the cards" is just horses***. Yes, they'd hold all the cards if their fall back position was keeping their assets and competing. However, they've shown no ability to do so.

They do hold all the cards. Some team is going to have to give up a package that has never been given up for an ace before right now.

 

Besides, if these teams were so keen on Sale and Quintana "spoiling", what is their motivation to trade a ton of talent for them?

[Dick Allen]

There are 29 other teams that would love to have Sale and Quintana in their rotation.

 

The questions are, who actually has the pieces to add them, and who actually would move the required pieces to get them? It's probably only a handful of teams.

[southsider2k5]

I don't want to trade Sale for a bad package. Yes, that return the Marlins received for Cabrera was bad and would really hurt as a white sox fan.

 

But we just had someone argue Mike Trout isn't good enough return for Sale.

 

Our diagnosis of bad is going to be subjective. But I think we all agree that some we expect mixtures of top 25/top 100/wildcards to come back. Where I disagree is the tendency to act like all top 25 talent is flat and = in value, where I think certain top ten talents are so good you take less back around them.

 

Others are certain we need to salt the earth of the teams we trade and I just can't get behind that being necessary.

 

The proposed deals from Boston didn't include their top talent. Moncada was not in the deal, and the rumor was that Boston didn't want to put Benietendi in it either.

[iamshack]

They do hold all the cards. Some team is going to have to give up a package that has never been given up for an ace before right now.

 

Besides, if these teams were so keen on Sale and Quintana "spoiling", what is their motivation to trade a ton of talent for them?

No they don't, because they know it does no good for the Sox to keep them. You can play this waiting game once or twice, but eventually, you've got to move them, and the buyers know it. And while there isn't anything comparable on the FA market, there certainly are other quality pitchers that will be made available for prospect packages. We don't know who they are today, but they will be made available.

 

As for the spoiling comment, I mean in terms of their control by the White Sox. The motivation by another team is to acquire them, win with them, and then potentially extend them. But actually WINNING SOMETHING is the motivation to trade a ton of talent for them.

[Dick Allen]

Ultimately, whatever package it is, the White Sox rank the prospects a bit differently from the publications, and they have to be right.

[iamshack]

The proposed deals from Boston didn't include their top talent. Moncada was not in the deal, and the rumor was that Boston didn't want to put Benietendi in it either.

This is all speculation.

[bmags]

Ultimately, whatever package it is, the White Sox rank the prospects a bit differently from the publications, and they have to be right.

 

Yes. In July, had we sent Sale for a package surrounding Gary Sanchez I would have been very skeptical.

 

Now - totally plausible.

 

Scary relying on a front office who just traded for James Shields to get good value back, but I stand by statement that they are capable of doing hte right thing but have made the wrong decisions because of bad strategy. Trading Sale for surplus of talent would be beginning of showing they have sound strategy and are capable of doing the right thing.

 

Or - it would be just like the Rams. Made the right trade once, but still incapable of team building anyway.

[ChiSox59]

No they don't, because they know it does no good for the Sox to keep them. You can play this waiting game once or twice, but eventually, you've got to move them, and the buyers know it. And while there isn't anything comparable on the FA market, there certainly are other quality pitchers that will be made available for prospect packages. We don't know who they are today, but they will be made available.

 

As for the spoiling comment, I mean in terms of their control by the White Sox. The motivation by another team is to acquire them, win with them, and then potentially extend them. But actually WINNING SOMETHING is the motivation to trade a ton of talent for them.

 

We're talking 3 and 4 years of control here. As Dick said earlier, there is a point where their value is so high that no one is going to meet the price. I think we're getting closer to the point where a trade may be possible, but we still may not be there quite yet. That doesn't mean the Sox basically punt a year of control for either of these guys to get a package you could get in a year. In the history of baseball, an ace has never been traded with 3 years of control left who is paid about 25% of his AAV on the FA market. Ever!

 

Sure, if the Sox hold Sale for 3 more years of playoff-less baseball and then let him leave via FA, they've screwed up. But we have a long time to go until then. The Sox still hold the cards.

Edited November 7, 2016 by ChiSox59

[ChiSox59]

This is all speculation.

 

As is assuming Benentendi and Moncada were available in July.

[Jose Abreu]

IMO, Boston, Texas, Houston, Dodgers, Cubs, Braves, Yankees are the only teams that could offer a good package for either Sale or Q. And some of those would really need to sell their farms.

[ChiSox59]

IMO, Boston, Texas, Houston, Dodgers, Cubs, Braves, Yankees are the only teams that could offer a good package for either Sale or Q. And some of those would really need to sell their farms.

 

Twins probably could, but they never would.

[Dick Allen]

Yes. In July, had we sent Sale for a package surrounding Gary Sanchez I would have been very skeptical.

 

Now - totally plausible.

 

Scary relying on a front office who just traded for James Shields to get good value back, but I stand by statement that they are capable of doing hte right thing but have made the wrong decisions because of bad strategy. Trading Sale for surplus of talent would be beginning of showing they have sound strategy and are capable of doing the right thing.

 

Or - it would be just like the Rams. Made the right trade once, but still incapable of team building anyway.

Yes. It's can't be like the Davidson/Reed trade, where people said after the fact they still would have made that trade 10 times out of 10. These guys getting dealt has to be a caulfied-styled 10 out of 10, which means with hindsight.

 

If they get guys who turned to crap, but Sale gets hurt his first game, it's still a bad trade because they will be able to get good players somewhere.

 

There is a lot of pressure on them trading these guys despite a good portion of the fanbase claiming to be all for a rebuild.

[southsider2k5]

Yes. It's can't be like the Davidson/Reed trade, where people said after the fact they still would have made that trade 10 times out of 10. These guys getting dealt has to be a caulfied-styled 10 out of 10, which means with hindsight.

 

If they get guys who turned to crap, but Sale gets hurt his first game, it's still a bad trade because they will be able to get good players somewhere.

 

There is a lot of pressure on them trading these guys despite a good portion of the fanbase claiming to be all for a rebuild.

 

We all know the "excitement" over the rebuild will last about as long as it takes for these kids to start playing games and for them to not be superstars right away.

[Y2Jimmy0]

IMO, Boston, Texas, Houston, Dodgers, Cubs, Braves, Yankees are the only teams that could offer a good package for either Sale or Q. And some of those would really need to sell their farms.

 

 

Pirates and Nationals could get it done too

[ChiSox59]

We all know the "excitement" over the rebuild will last about as long as it takes for these kids to start playing games and for them to not be superstars right away.

 

Yah, and when the Sox average 10,000 fans. If you're for a rebuild, support the team if/when it happens.

[southsider2k5]

Yah, and when the Sox average 10,000 fans. If you're for a rebuild, support the team if/when it happens.

 

When the Sale happens (pun intended) attendance drops will accelerate. Fans may say that they want a rebuild, but they won't support it.