Price rising for Sale and Q

[Eminor3rd]

Strongly disagree. Hitting ahead of or behind other great hitters absolutely has an impact on one's performance. If JBJ is surrounded by a bunch of guys like JB Shuck (obv. extreme to make the point), you think he sees as many good pitches to hit as when he's surrounded by the Red Sox offense? Also, there are guys that just don't perform leading off or hitting at the top of the order and excel while batting in the lower part of the order. This is a similar effect to some relievers that are awesome at mid relief/setup but can't close. The mental aspect of baseball is a thing and devalued more and more in this new age of statistical analysis.

 

Can't say much about the idea of the "mental aspect," but it's been proven time and time again that hitters aren't pitched significantly differently with or without "lineup protection." The only statistically significant difference is found for 8th hitters that hit before pitchers.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

and it appears there is statistical data to support the position of where you hit in the order equates to more pressure and less performance for certain players. JBJ appears to be one of those guys (at least this year):

 

http://bosoxinjection.com/2016/09/12/bosto...-bradley-order/

[harfman77]

It's not though -- that's what makes it non-intuitive, but it's important. You have to think about it as the percentage of time that the player is contributing. Brady contributes to the Patriots 80-90% of the time the team is on the field, and the rest is most garbage time. An ace contributes 20-25% of the time in the season, and maybe 30% during the season.

 

Brady is really only contributing at most 40% of the time, unless he has taken up kicking and started playing safety while he was suspended. A guy like Gronk is lucky to contribute 25% of the time given personnel packages, but when he does, his team benefits greatly.

[harfman77]

and it appears there is statistical data to support the position of where you hit in the order equates to more pressure and less performance for certain players. JBJ appears to be one of those guys (at least this year):

 

http://bosoxinjection.com/2016/09/12/bosto...-bradley-order/

 

I think the thing with JBJ is that you just need to accept that he is one of the most hot and cold players in the league. Two or three years ago he was a bum and most thought you could get him in a change of scenery deal. He was solid last season, had an amazing stretch this season before cooling off significantly at the end of the year. Could be that pitchers figured out how to pitch him, or that he just isn't seeing the ball as well now. I think what you get with JBJ is a Jekyll and Hyde offensive player with top shelf defense. Heyward was mentioned and is not a bad analogy, although I think JBJ is better defensively and has a higher ceiling offensively than what Heyward has produced.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Question: in a 1 for 1, Sale for Betts, who says no? Hahn or Dombrowski?

[harfman77]

Question: in a 1 for 1, Sale for Betts, who says no? Hahn or Dombrowski?

 

Dombrowski and hopefully the Sox. The Sox aren't one player away, so that trade would just shift the hole rather than plugging the multiple holes that a Sale trade should.

 

Betts is an MVP candidate and has years of control left, plus he is a fan favorite, not likely that either side would be too interested in that deal.

[Bob Sacamano]

Dombrowski and hopefully the Sox. The Sox aren't one player away, so that trade would just shift the hole rather than plugging the multiple holes that a Sale trade should.

 

Betts is an MVP candidate and has years of control left, plus he is a fan favorite, not likely that either side would be too interested in that deal.

 

Agreed. Don't see it either. They'd have to replace his and Ortiz's power.

Edited October 11, 2016 by soxfan2014

[SCCWS]

 

 

FWIW: Boston/Providence paper and talk media are pretty consistent today. Red Sox priorities in order:

 

1. DH-Bullpen( esp.lefty) and 3B. Most figure bullpen via trade and DH and 3B in house

2. Alex Speier who is one of their prime reporters said they have 6 starters signed for next year.

 

"This may be an offseason defined more by subtle changes rather than fundamental ones. In the rotation, the team retains control over its six primary starters this year – David Price, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, Drew Pomeranz, Steven Wright, and Clay Buchholz (whose $13.5 million option represents almost a no-brainer given its short term and the righthander’s solid performance down the stretch).

 

Will the Red Sox explore the trade market to see if the White Sox are inclined to deal Chris Sale or Jose Quintana? Certainly, but in a thin market where the prospect cost of starters is likely to be exorbitant, the team may also stay the course. "

 

 

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2...fLwI/story.html

[ChiSox59]

FWIW: Boston/Providence paper and talk media are pretty consistent today. Red Sox priorities in order:

 

1. DH-Bullpen( esp.lefty) and 3B. Most figure bullpen via trade and DH and 3B in house

2. Alex Speier who is one of their prime reporters said they have 6 starters signed for next year.

 

"This may be an offseason defined more by subtle changes rather than fundamental ones. In the rotation, the team retains control over its six primary starters this year – David Price, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, Drew Pomeranz, Steven Wright, and Clay Buchholz (whose $13.5 million option represents almost a no-brainer given its short term and the righthander’s solid performance down the stretch).

 

Will the Red Sox explore the trade market to see if the White Sox are inclined to deal Chris Sale or Jose Quintana? Certainly, but in a thin market where the prospect cost of starters is likely to be exorbitant, the team may also stay the course. "

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2...fLwI/story.html

 

At least he knows the price.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

FWIW: Boston/Providence paper and talk media are pretty consistent today. Red Sox priorities in order:

 

1. DH-Bullpen( esp.lefty) and 3B. Most figure bullpen via trade and DH and 3B in house

2. Alex Speier who is one of their prime reporters said they have 6 starters signed for next year.

 

"This may be an offseason defined more by subtle changes rather than fundamental ones. In the rotation, the team retains control over its six primary starters this year – David Price, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, Drew Pomeranz, Steven Wright, and Clay Buchholz (whose $13.5 million option represents almost a no-brainer given its short term and the righthander’s solid performance down the stretch).

 

Will the Red Sox explore the trade market to see if the White Sox are inclined to deal Chris Sale or Jose Quintana? Certainly, but in a thin market where the prospect cost of starters is likely to be exorbitant, the team may also stay the course. "

 

 

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2...fLwI/story.html

 

Man too bad they didn't decide to re-do the Pomeranz deal when they had the chance. Idk if its all certain that Buccholz option gets picked up either.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Dombrowski and hopefully the Sox. The Sox aren't one player away, so that trade would just shift the hole rather than plugging the multiple holes that a Sale trade should.

 

Betts is an MVP candidate and has years of control left, plus he is a fan favorite, not likely that either side would be too interested in that deal.

But if you are the Red Sox why not sign a guy like Reddick to complement JBJ and Benintendi in the OF? Aren't they basically a lock to sign Encarncion too? He easily replaces Ortiz's production. Hitting might get you there but pitching wins in October and right now the Red Sox have a big problem there. They can't trust their current ace to give them a quality start in a playoff game moving forward. Their issues were on full display over the past week and simply standing pat will not get it done.

 

Also, regarding fan favorites, I think Benintendi is quickly turning into just as much of a fan favorite as Betts so why is it a given they would be willing to part with him if they really care about that kind of stuff?

[caulfield12]

Has to be Boston, Texas, LAD, Cardinals, NYY, Astros or Pirates.

 

It's not brain surgery. Gauge their initial interest, solicit opening packages/groups of prospects, play Boston and NYY against each other with a few media leaks and get a deal done for Sale by mid December.

[caulfield12]

But if you are the Red Sox why not sign a guy like Reddick to complement JBJ and Benintendi in the OF? Aren't they basically a lock to sign Encarncion too? He easily replaces Ortiz's production. Hitting might get you there but pitching wins in October and right now the Red Sox have a big problem there. They can't trust their current ace to give them a quality start in a playoff game moving forward. Their issues were on full display over the past week and simply standing pat will not get it done.

 

Also, regarding fan favorites, I think Benintendi is quickly turning into just as much of a fan favorite as Betts so why is it a given they would be willing to part with him if they really care about that kind of stuff?

 

You also have to figure out where to play Sandoval and Moncada.

 

Fan favorite as a rookie with limited time vs. clear Top Five MVP candidate are not quite the same...but if it does perhaps cause them to undervalue JBJ internally, then fine.

[southsider2k5]

FWIW: Boston/Providence paper and talk media are pretty consistent today. Red Sox priorities in order:

 

1. DH-Bullpen( esp.lefty) and 3B. Most figure bullpen via trade and DH and 3B in house

2. Alex Speier who is one of their prime reporters said they have 6 starters signed for next year.

 

"This may be an offseason defined more by subtle changes rather than fundamental ones. In the rotation, the team retains control over its six primary starters this year – David Price, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, Drew Pomeranz, Steven Wright, and Clay Buchholz (whose $13.5 million option represents almost a no-brainer given its short term and the righthander's solid performance down the stretch).

 

Will the Red Sox explore the trade market to see if the White Sox are inclined to deal Chris Sale or Jose Quintana? Certainly, but in a thin market where the prospect cost of starters is likely to be exorbitant, the team may also stay the course. "

 

 

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2...fLwI/story.html

 

lol, apparently the Boston front office was up early this morning writing propaganda. If they had no interest in these guys because of their six starters, they wouldn't have been sniffing around them three months ago. GMAB. Add to that a first round sweep, and the pressure goes UP on them to make a move, not down.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

You also have to figure out where to play Sandoval and Moncada.

 

Fan favorite as a rookie with limited time vs. clear Top Five MVP candidate are not quite the same...but if it does perhaps cause them to undervalue JBJ internally, then fine.

But from all indications, the Red Sox do NOT undervalue JBJ. In fact, for all we know, they overvalue him. That's the problem

 

http://www.overthemonster.com/2016/9/2/127...ckie-bradley-jr

[Dick Allen]

lol, apparently the Boston front office was up early this morning writing propaganda. If they had no interest in these guys because of their six starters, they wouldn't have been sniffing around them three months ago. GMAB. Add to that a first round sweep, and the pressure goes UP on them to make a move, not down.

Yeah, a team that came up short as it was doesn't pretty much stand pat and stay in house when it is losing it's biggest run producer. Even with a free agent, chances are their DH production is going down. They need to make up for it some way, and on the mound is the answer.

[Eminor3rd]

Brady is really only contributing at most 40% of the time, unless he has taken up kicking and started playing safety while he was suspended. A guy like Gronk is lucky to contribute 25% of the time given personnel packages, but when he does, his team benefits greatly.

 

Yeah, I thought it would be a simpler argument if I only included "times when possible to contribute," but that knife cuts both ways. The pitcher, of course, doesn't contribute on offense and also doesn't account for the plays his defenders make. So if Brady goes from 90% to 40%, the ace goes from 25% to 10%.

[Eminor3rd]

Question: in a 1 for 1, Sale for Betts, who says no? Hahn or Dombrowski?

 

Dombrowski, unquestionably.

[caulfield12]

To say Buchholz and Rodriguez are sure things is ludicrous...on the White Sox, Buchholz would clearly be a non tender candidate because of his rising salary and inconsistent performance level.

 

Maybe another pitcher the White Sox would try to fix is Joe Kelly as an add-in if they sent Robertson? Have little interest in Pomeranz.

 

DD should not be very confident in both Wright and Porcello overperforming again along with Pomeranz...and the Price deal looks worse and worse by the month. They still don't have an ace, unless Price can pull off a Jon Lester transformation in his 30's.

[Dunt]

"This may be an offseason defined more by subtle changes rather than fundamental ones. In the rotation, the team retains control over its six primary starters this year – David Price, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, Drew Pomeranz, Steven Wright, and Clay Buchholz (whose $13.5 million option represents almost a no-brainer given its short term and the righthander’s solid performance down the stretch).

 

Price 3.99 ERA 3.60 FIP 3.52 xFIP

Porcello 3.15 ERA 3.40 FIP 3.89 xFIP

Wright 3.33 ERA 3.77 FIP 4.57 xFIP

Rodriguez 4.71 ERA 4.43 FIP 4.72 xFIP

Pomeranz 4.59 ERA 4.78 FIP 3.85 xFIP

Buchholz 4.78 ERA 5.06 FIP 5.32 xFIP

 

Ya, they are totally all set.

 

[Quin]

I don't think the Red Sox would move both JBJ and Benintendi. I know you've said the same earlier in the thread, but I don't think a rental of Melky really changes anything. JBJ and Benintendi are both franchise CFers. The BoSox could move one, but moving both would take a huge strength and turn it into a huge hole. Neither Melky Cabrera or Brock Holt will make a difference in that regard.

 

I do think a lot of posters on this board are underrating JBJ. I know we're trading the best asset the White Sox have ever had in this hypothetical and people want better than JBJ as a headliner, but JBJ is a .340-.360 OBP guy with 20+ dingers and great defense. Other than depth of the roster, our problem is the lack of power/OBP/defense. JBJ does all of those things at a premium position. At home, he can really take away the gaps. Seeing what Lorenzo Cain does when KC come to town, it would be incredible to have our own guy forcing teams to hit the long ball to win. Especially with Eaton in RF.

 

I think Kopech is the guy the Sox would insist on including. He'd be the next ace prospect in the system hopefully to replace Sale in a few years. He had some makeup concerns coming out of the draft and has since been suspended for stims and suspended for fighting with a teammate. That adds another layer of risk on a 20 year old who throws 100+. He is filthy though. Despite a clear need to stop tipping his off-speed pitches, Kopech absolutely dominated A+ as a 20 year old. He stays tall and closed on the fastball but has a bad habit of dropping down and slowing down on the offspeed offerings. From my largely untrained eye, his mechanics would check out with the Sox.

 

So to me, one of JBJ/Benintendi is a must. Kopech is a must. One of Swihart/Vazquez makes too much sense. If it's JBJ, we need Moncada too. If it's Bentinendi, the last four pieces are higher quality guys than the last three on Moncada/JBJ starter. If we could somehow get Moncada/JBJ that would be incredible.

 

My deals in order of preference and least likelihood:

 

1.) Moncada, JBJ, Kopech, Swihart/Vazquez and Eduardo Rodriguez/Brian Johnson.

2.) Benintendi, Kopech, Devers, Swihart/Vazquez and Eduardo Rodriguez/Brian Johnson

3.) JBJ, Kopech, Devers, Swihart/Vazquez and Luis Alexander Basabe

 

I can get behind that first deal. JBJ and Moncada alone could fill two holes. Keeps Eaton in right as well.

 

Then you just hope Hansen, Kopech, Rodriguez and Fulmer can fill in the space behind Quintana and Rodon.

 

[SCCWS]

Yeah, a team that came up short as it was doesn't pretty much stand pat and stay in house when it is losing it's biggest run producer. Even with a free agent, chances are their DH production is going down. They need to make up for it some way, and on the mound is the answer.

 

I think they look at it differently. They got little production out of 3B and LF last season. Benintnedi is a major upgrade in LF and either Moncada, Holt or Panda will play 3rd. I think Moncada needs a year in AAA but I guess ST will determine that. Either way, they will probably get more production than they got from Shaw/Hill at 3rd.

I see people on this site thinking Encarnicion is headed to Boston. See very little on that locally. Thought is they will want a lefty not a righty with their present roster.

[Dunt]

I can get behind that first deal. JBJ and Moncada alone could fill two holes. Keeps Eaton in right as well.

 

Then you just hope Hansen, Kopech, Rodriguez and Fulmer can fill in the space behind Quintana and Rodon.

 

Adams and Stephens as well

Edited October 11, 2016 by Dunt

[dmbjeff]

I don't think the Red Sox would move both JBJ and Benintendi. I know you've said the same earlier in the thread, but I don't think a rental of Melky really changes anything. JBJ and Benintendi are both franchise CFers. The BoSox could move one, but moving both would take a huge strength and turn it into a huge hole. Neither Melky Cabrera or Brock Holt will make a difference in that regard.

 

I do think a lot of posters on this board are underrating JBJ. I know we're trading the best asset the White Sox have ever had in this hypothetical and people want better than JBJ as a headliner, but JBJ is a .340-.360 OBP guy with 20+ dingers and great defense. Other than depth of the roster, our problem is the lack of power/OBP/defense. JBJ does all of those things at a premium position. At home, he can really take away the gaps. Seeing what Lorenzo Cain does when KC come to town, it would be incredible to have our own guy forcing teams to hit the long ball to win. Especially with Eaton in RF.

 

I think Kopech is the guy the Sox would insist on including. He'd be the next ace prospect in the system hopefully to replace Sale in a few years. He had some makeup concerns coming out of the draft and has since been suspended for stims and suspended for fighting with a teammate. That adds another layer of risk on a 20 year old who throws 100+. He is filthy though. Despite a clear need to stop tipping his off-speed pitches, Kopech absolutely dominated A+ as a 20 year old. He stays tall and closed on the fastball but has a bad habit of dropping down and slowing down on the offspeed offerings. From my largely untrained eye, his mechanics would check out with the Sox.

 

So to me, one of JBJ/Benintendi is a must. Kopech is a must. One of Swihart/Vazquez makes too much sense. If it's JBJ, we need Moncada too. If it's Bentinendi, the last four pieces are higher quality guys than the last three on Moncada/JBJ starter. If we could somehow get Moncada/JBJ that would be incredible.

 

My deals in order of preference and least likelihood:

 

1.) Moncada, JBJ, Kopech, Swihart/Vazquez and Eduardo Rodriguez/Brian Johnson.

2.) Benintendi, Kopech, Devers, Swihart/Vazquez and Eduardo Rodriguez/Brian Johnson

3.) JBJ, Kopech, Devers, Swihart/Vazquez and Luis Alexander Basabe

 

I am still not seeing a package with Moncada AND Benintendi. I think these 2 both have to be in a package for Sale. It might mean slightly lesser 3 thru 5 pieces in the deal, so no Devers or Kopech. I know they probably don't want to trade both in a deal, but I think the WS have to insist on both. Boston will be fine without both. Moncada is projected at 2B/3B where they still have in house options of Pedroia and Shaw and later Devers. Benintendi, they can do without, with JBJ and Betts staying there. It would require them to spend on a LF and DH with Ortiz leaving. They have the money to make that happen. Melky could be involved in the deal to plug a hole on their end and free us of $13 million. Also keep in mind they are saving huge dollars on Sale who really should be making $30 million a year, so a saving of roughly $20 million, which they can spend on Encarnacion/Cespedes.

[Balta1701]

I am still not seeing a package with Moncada AND Benintendi. I think these 2 both have to be in a package for Sale. It might mean slightly lesser 3 thru 5 pieces in the deal, so no Devers or Kopech. I know they probably don't want to trade both in a deal, but I think the WS have to insist on both. Boston will be fine without both. Moncada is projected at 2B/3B where they still have in house options of Pedroia and Shaw and later Devers. Benintendi, they can do without, with JBJ and Betts staying there. It would require them to spend on a LF and DH with Ortiz leaving. They have the money to make that happen. Melky could be involved in the deal to plug a hole on their end and free us of $13 million. Also keep in mind they are saving huge dollars on Sale who really should be making $30 million a year, so a saving of roughly $20 million, which they can spend on Encarnacion/Cespedes.

I could see this being a plausible basis for such a deal, but the problem with those 2 being the package means the White Sox will not get an "established big leaguer" which is why I think people keep looking at JBJ. The issue therefore on that setup might be more the White Sox than the Red Sox.