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2016 Presidential Election Thread


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QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Nov 8, 2016 -> 02:09 PM)
If true, Florida's probably in the bag for Clinton and with that the election. The interesting thing to watch there will be the senate race with Rubio.

 

More Florida votes

 

Tom Bonier @tbonier

Uh, wow. Obama won Orange County, FL by 18%. They are reporting 45k MORE ballots cast than all of '12, with over 3 hours of voting left.

2:50 PM - 8 Nov 2016

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The turnout numbers have been surprising. I would be interested to see how things like facebook / internet positively affect turnout as almost all major sites have a "go vote" message.

 

Edit: Considering that one study where getting a message on which of your neighbors voted, maybe the push to have an "i voted" selfie is more significant?

Edited by bmags
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QUOTE (bmags @ Nov 8, 2016 -> 03:11 PM)
The turnout numbers have been surprising. I would be interested to see how things like facebook / internet positively affect turnout as almost all major sites have a "go vote" message.

 

My android phone has been bugging me for a few days about voting.

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QUOTE (Ezio Auditore @ Nov 8, 2016 -> 03:12 PM)
I really did not expect turnout to be this high. Obama's record is 61%, so I'm gonna be keeping an eye on it, curious to see where this goes.

 

For whatever reason it has not made me feel any better. Anything outside of what was expected seems terrifying.

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QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Nov 8, 2016 -> 02:09 PM)
If true, Florida's probably in the bag for Clinton and with that the election. The interesting thing to watch there will be the senate race with Rubio.

 

You've been following this stuff more than me, but why does more turnout = better for Hillary? I get that the Latino vote is coming out big this election, but you or someone else posted numbers of increased latino voters from some state the other day and it also showed an increase in white voters too (the number of which doubled all minority increases combined).

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QUOTE (JenksIsMyHero @ Nov 8, 2016 -> 03:30 PM)
You've been following this stuff more than me, but why does more turnout = better for Hillary? I get that the Latino vote is coming out big this election, but you or someone else posted numbers of increased latino voters from some state the other day and it also showed an increase in white voters too (the number of which doubled all minority increases combined).

 

Generally speaking, more turnout=better for Democrats in elections. Broward county specifically is the Ft. Lauderdale area and is heavily Democratic.

 

I think it was me who posted the EV breakdowns for Florida. Based on both the racial and the party affiliation, we can expect the new minority voters including hundreds of thousands of extra Latino/a voters to be very heavily in favor of Clinton with the white voters more evenly split, maybe leaning slightly Trump depending on gender breakdown. Overall, Democrats came out of Florida EV with just a hair over 90k more votes based purely on partisan ballot responses, but "unaffiliated" responses were way, way up and those were heavily tilted towards new Latino/a registrations. Asian-Americans in Florida also doubled their vote numbers, and that's not a good sign for the white nationalist candidate either.

 

Lots of guesswork from just these numbers and we won't know for certain until the actual votes are counted, but things are looking really good for Clinton in Florida in both early and day-of voting.

Edited by StrangeSox
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QUOTE (JenksIsMyHero @ Nov 8, 2016 -> 10:30 PM)
You've been following this stuff more than me, but why does more turnout = better for Hillary? I get that the Latino vote is coming out big this election, but you or someone else posted numbers of increased latino voters from some state the other day and it also showed an increase in white voters too (the number of which doubled all minority increases combined).

 

Generally speaking, Republicans have more a more reliable voting base than Democrats due to strong demographics like senior citizens and Evangelicals (and not apathetic young people).

 

If turnout is low, it means Republicans came out and Democrats didn't.

If turnout is high, it means Republicans came out and Democrats did too.

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Jonathan Martin @jmartNYT

NEWS: George W. & Laura Bush did not vote for Trump. They left the presidential line empty & cast votes for downballot GOP candidates

3:49 PM - 8 Nov 2016

 

 

 

more news

 

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Turnout will easily eclipse 2012-levels

3:51 PM - 8 Nov 2016 · Manhattan, NY, United States

343 343 Retweets 663 663 likes

 

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Florida turnout already far above 2012.

Broward is now at 800k, up from 757

Orange is at 527k up from 467

Brevard is at 301k up from 286

3:55 PM - 8 Nov 2016 · Manhattan, NY, United States

Edited by StrangeSox
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