NLCS: Cubs vs Dodgers

[iWiN4PreP]

For the record, I think it was silly to use Jansen with a 6-run lead. Should have preserved him and not given the Cubs hitters a chance to see him.

 

[StrangeSox]

I just don't think it's worth getting cute over. They bring some other guy in, he happens to not be sharp, they get something cooking, and then all of the sudden you are using 3-4 more guys to get out of the inning and win. I think the odds are they could have pulled him without something like that happening, but it just isn't worth taking the chance IMO.

Yep, it's the nlcs, play to win today, not tomorrow or the next day.

[chw42]

Let's face it. Dodgers are conceding tomorrow pitching the kid. So it'll be 2-2 heading into Kershaw and the closer Jansen will be rested for huge Game 5.

 

You must have never seen Urias pitch.

 

There's a chance he might have some jitters, but he's already pitched in the postseason.

[chw42]

For the record, I think it was silly to use Jansen with a 6-run lead. Should have preserved him and not given the Cubs hitters a chance to see him.

 

Had Fowler not doubled in the 8th, Jansen would have never seen action in this game.

[Buehrle>Wood]

Andrew Miller threw 5 innings those first 3 games, 9 innings this postseason and was available today I believe. I don't see them treating Jansen much different.

Edited October 19, 2016 by Buehrle>Wood

[OmarComing25]

There is a day off on Friday, he will be fine.

 

What happens if Baez gives up a few runs, then who do you bring in? It's the playoffs, you don't f*** around with your bullpen, you ensure the victory.

They had a 99.9% win probability at that point, doesn't seem worth it, especially with three straight games.

[Rowand44]

Let's face it. Dodgers are conceding tomorrow pitching the kid. So it'll be 2-2 heading into Kershaw and the closer Jansen will be rested for huge Game 5.

Jebus.

 

And Jansen has thrown like 40 pitches in 4 days, he'll be fine to pitch tomorrow and there's an off day in between to game 5. This is no big deal at all.

 

EDIT: Well I'm an idiot, thought there was an off day between games 4 and 5, my bad. Still don't think the extra 15 pitches will be killer but that does change it some for sure.

Edited October 19, 2016 by Rowand44

[chw42]

Jebus.

 

And Jansen has thrown like 40 pitches in 4 days, he'll be fine to pitch tomorrow and there's an off day in between to game 5. This is no big deal at all.

 

EDIT: Well I'm an idiot, thought there was an off day between games 4 and 5, my bad. Still don't think the extra 15 pitches will be killer but that does change it some for sure.

 

Plus you already got him up. If you already get him up, I don't think 15 pitches makes that big of a difference.

[LittleHurt05]

Had Fowler not doubled in the 8th, Jansen would have never seen action in this game.

 

Had Jansen not pitched in the 8th, then I would be fine with not using him to start the 9th. But once you had to burn him in the 8th, you had to stick with him in the 9th, just in case.

[chw42]

The reason the Cubs have struggled so much with Kershaw and Hill is that they have great curveballs. Urias' scouting report says his curve is 60/65, good for his best secondary pitch. The only problem is that it wasn't all that effective this year at -2.7 runs.

 

Urias started out poor, but he was very effective after he got called back up.

[iamshack]

They had a 99.9% win probability at that point, doesn't seem worth it, especially with three straight games.

Yeah, but you are assuming they will need him for the next two games.

 

As SS said, you manage to give yourself the best chance to win each game.

 

You start getting too cute and you blow one you should have won.

[Soxbadger]

You win the game. Dodgers are up 2-1. You worry about your closer's availability when it happens. If they need him tomorrow, that means that they are either tied or leading that game, and already have a 2-1 lead. That is not exactly a "bad" position. If somehow the Dodgers blow this, or even give the Cubs momentum going into tomorrow, who knows what happens.

[fathom]

I guarantee Kenley goes 2 innings tomorrow if games is close.

[LittleHurt05]

They had a 99.9% win probability at that point, doesn't seem worth it, especially with three straight games.

 

We should all be familiar that the 0.01% is very possible.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/KC...201605280.shtml

[Buehrle>Wood]

I guarantee Kenley goes 2 innings tomorrow if games is close.

Agreed. And gell pitch game 5 if it's close, and they're up 3-1 with a lead.

[BigHurt3515]

Nice to see Dodgers get this big Win and now the momentum is squarely with them.

From the Cubs perspective, all they really need to do is win tomorrow's game to tie the series 2-2. That's got to be OK with them, as I would imagine they are the favorites in Game 6 (no kershaw, and at Wrigley). A game 7 likely falls neutral (Wrigley vs. Kershaw).

 

The tide has certainly changed from a very pro-cubs tide to now a slight advantage Dodgers.

 

As a Sox fan, I am starting to root heavily for the Cubs dismissal. If anything is firing my Sox fandom up it's the Cubs losing.

 

Sorry to burst your bubble but as of earlier today Kershaw wasn't pitching Game 5, would be pitching Game 6

[SoxAce]

Deadpool has been pretty quiet the past 2 games. What gives?

[Dunt]

Deadpool has been pretty quiet the past 2 games. What gives?

 

[caulfield12]

And no J4L, either...Ron is at least maintaining some illusions of being more of a Sox fan while straddling the line with excitement about living in his Wrigleyville environs.

[greg775]

Now would be the time for Cub fans to go make some cold hard cash. Hear me out. The Cubs are down 2-1 in LA for two more games. No longer are the Cubs HEAVY favorites. So you bet the house on the Cubs in Game Four and to win the series. If you somehow lose, it was a great great investment possibility anyway.

The Cubs still won all those regular season games and figure to bash the young kid Wednesday. So I'd bet the Cubs and the over and win huge money on Game Four alone. Then you bet the Cubs to win the series and win it all right now. Your odds will never be better and it's still a lock.

 

Now if somehow LA won Game Four and went up 3-1 I'd bet even more on the Cubs for the same reasons. Look, they are still the best team and they are going to wake up. There are good reasons to bet heavily on the Cubs right now. The only reason not to is to believe this offensive fizz is going to continue. Smart money right now says no to that.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Go Dodgers ! Such a dilemma . Root for Dodgers and Urias ( who is a possible trade candidate for Sale) or root for some 4 -4 game in the 4th inning where both starting pitchers both exit early ?

 

I honestly think the Cubs will get that WS win eventually but a delay in the dynasty and watching them lose 2 years in a row in the playoffs might quiet some of the hysterical hype.

[greg775]

Go Dodgers ! Such a dilemma . Root for Dodgers and Urias ( who is a possible trade candidate for Sale) or root for some 4 -4 game in the 4th inning where both starting pitchers both exit early ?

 

I honestly think the Cubs will get that WS win eventually but a delay in the dynasty and watching them lose 2 years in a row in the playoffs might quiet some of the hysterical hype.

If somehow they lose this year, there will be dread in Cubland. Remember not so long ago Detroit had its magical run with dominant starting pitching and dominant team and Leyland's juggernaut never won a WS. Those Detroit teams now are deemed failures. IF and it's a big IF the Cubs lose this year, it'd be very alarming to Cubdom. You can't assume you'll be injury free in future, tho Schwarber absence could be blamed.

[caulfield12]

Schwarber has nothing to do with their losing this year.

 

It would be quite easy to argue that it gave Baez an opportunity to emerge, and Contreras as well. Not to mention they had Soler there in reserve as well.

 

The odds are greater of a pitching going down next season, and that will have much more of an impact than removing one cog in that offense.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Schwarber has nothing to do with their losing this year.

 

It would be quite easy to argue that it gave Baez an opportunity to emerge, and Contreras as well. Not to mention they had Soler there in reserve as well.

 

The odds are greater of a pitching going down next season, and that will have much more of an impact than removing one cog in that offense.

Pitching. Yes the Cubs offense has been very good and the defense has been excellent but it's their pitching that's done the heavy lifting this year and the one area that could lead to an unfulfilled dynasty. With very few top arms waiting in the minors, losing Chapman to free agency this offseason, Arrieta, Hammel, and Lackey next, and Lester approaching the back end of his career, they could have a serious pitching problem sooner than most foresee. It's the reason why I think this year and next year are their two best chances of winning a World Series before the young core of infielders hits free agency.

[Bob Sacamano]

Pitching. Yes the Cubs offense has been very good and the defense has been excellent but it's their pitching that's done the heavy lifting this year and the one area that could lead to an unfulfilled dynasty. With very few top arms waiting in the minors, losing Chapman to free agency this offseason, Arrieta, Hammel, and Lackey next, and Lester approaching the back end of his career, they could have a serious pitching problem sooner than most foresee. It's the reason why I think this year and next year are their two best chances of winning a World Series before the young core of infielders hits free agency.

 

I think they end up dealing for a young, cost-controlled arm.