2016-2017 Off-season Plans (extensive)

[soxforlife05]

Which plan are you referring to? And adding $40-45 isn't even close to realistic. You can add one of those guys, although I don't know why you would want to add Chapman when Kenley Jansen is just as good, but likable, as far as I know.

 

The above plan which had Castro, Valbuena, Nova, Gomez, etc. That adds about $30 mill to this years commitment. They would only have to go an additional $10 mill beyond that to get Cespedes and Chapman.

 

Saladino or Lawrie would be as good if not better than Valbuena at DH and I think Narvaez could do ok as a starter. He has the plate discipline to develop into a high OBP low power catcher which is fine because we'd have plenty of power at other positions.

Edited November 3, 2016 by soxforlife05

[fathom]

People think they are going to sign a closer when they already have highest paid one? Come on

[soxforlife05]

People think they are going to sign a closer when they already have highest paid one? Come on

 

I think if they are going to spend you need elite talent rather than shuffle the deck chairs with more 3rd tier signings. Have faith in some of your existing players like Narvaez and Saladino to handle a bigger role and players like Shields to rebound (although I doubt that one, but they did trade for him when no one else wanted him).

Edited November 3, 2016 by soxforlife05

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I think if they are going to spend you need elite talent rather than shuffle the deck chairs with more 3rd tier signings. Have faith in some of your existing players like Narvaez and Saladino to handle a bigger role and players like Shields to rebound (although I doubt that one, but they did trade for him when no one else wanted him).

 

To be fair, his plan was for a rebuild. He only signed those players to field a competitive team (a motive I disagree with) and to possibly flip them in July for prospects (which I absolutely agree with).

 

He wasn't adding those players to make a playoff run.

[soxforlife05]

To be fair, his plan was for a rebuild. He only signed those players to field a competitive team (a motive I disagree with) and to possibly flip them in July for prospects (which I absolutely agree with).

 

He wasn't adding those players to make a playoff run.

 

Well we save $18 mill alone from Turner/Rollins/Albers/Garcia/Avila/Latos/Navarro. Guys who were hot garbage. Maybe you bring Avila back at like $1-2 mill.

 

$10 mill in mostly dead money from Austin Jackson/Duke. And $16 mill in dead money from Danks.

 

That's $44 mill saved.

 

2017 Roster Moves:

 

Shields (replaces Danks) at $12 mill

Tilson (replaces Austin Jackson) at

Chapman (replaces Duke) at $15 mill

Turner/Latos replaced with Fulmer at

Avila retained/replaced with FA catcher at ~1-3 mill

Navarro replaced with Narvaez at

Rollins replaced with Anderson at

Garcia replaced with Cespedes at 25 mil

Albers replaced with Ynoa/Kahnle at

 

The replacements would cost around $57 mill. That's only bumping up the payroll $12-13 mill outside of contractual raises to make two elite signings while putting faith in some of your existing players.

 

Overall the payroll would probably have to increase by $25 mill to make it happen.

Edited November 3, 2016 by soxforlife05

[fathom]

Sox are not going to sign Chapman. There are five major money teams with a need for closer (chc, nyy, lad, sf, nats). Prices will be insane

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Well we save $18 mill alone from Turner/Rollins/Albers/Garcia/Avila/Latos/Navarro. Guys who were hot garbage. Maybe you bring Avila back at like $1-2 mill.

 

$10 mill in mostly dead money from Austin Jackson/Duke. And $16 mill in dead money from Danks.

 

That's $44 mill saved.

 

2017 Roster Moves:

 

Shields (replaces Danks) at $12 mill

Tilson (replaces Austin Jackson) at

Chapman (replaces Duke) at $15 mill

Turner/Latos replaced with Fulmer at

Avila retained/replaced with FA catcher at ~1-3 mill

Navarro replaced with Narvaez at

Rollins replaced with Anderson at

Garcia replaced with Cespedes at 25 mil

Albers replaced with Ynoa/Kahnle at

 

The replacements would cost around $57 mill. That's only bumping up the payroll $12-13 mill to make two elite signings while putting faith in some of your existing players.

 

Don't forget to add in increases in payroll from guys like Melky ($1M), Abreu ($1M), Robertson ($1M), Sale ($3M), Frazier ($6M), Quintana ($2.25M), Eaton ($1.25M), Jones ($1M), and others who are arb eligible. That's $16.5M from those 8 guys I just listed.

[soxforlife05]

Sox are not going to sign Chapman. There are five major money teams with a need for closer (chc, nyy, lad, sf, nats). Prices will be insane

 

Would be nice to have an owner who cared about winning.

 

Such a joke that we have to consider rebuilding with 2 cost controlled aces. Don't think I'd trust the front office to trade them. It's like teams just have it in their head that they can fleece the Sox and never give in to their demands.

Edited November 3, 2016 by soxforlife05

[beautox]

Beautox’s Offseason Plan

 

Arbitration-eligible (with projected salaries from MLBTR):

Todd Frazier, $13.5M - Tender

Brett Lawrie, $5.1M - Tender

Avisail Garcia, $3.5M - Non-Tender

Miguel Gonzalez, $2.6M - Tender

Dan Jennings, $1.2M - Tender

J.B. Shuck, $1M - Non-Tender

Jake Petricka, $900K - Tender

Zach Putnam, $900K - Tender

Daniel Webb, $600K - Non-Tender

 

Explain the toughest calls if necessary: Pretty straight forward across the board

 

Contract options (pick up or buy out)

Matt Albers: $3M for 2017 or a $250,000 buyout - Buyout

Impending free agents (re-sign, let go or qualifying offer)

Austin Jackson: Made $5 million in 2016. - Let Go

Alex Avila: Made $2.5 million in 2016. - Let Go

Justin Morneau: Made $1 million in 2016, although he signed during the season. - Re-Sign for 2.5 million.

 

Free agents

Sign a number of project pitchers like CJ Wilson, Jarrod Parker, Doug Fister and others to suppress the future rotation’s arbitration eligibility.

 

Sign someone like Mark Teixeira as a nice veteran presence and possible player to be flipped at the deadline in a similar fashion as Carlos Beltran last deadline.

 

Trade

I'll be using The Point of Pittsburgh as a soft guide to surplus value of prospects for this exercise.

 

Chris Sale to Boston for OF Andrew Benintendi, 3B Rafael Devers, LHP Jason Groome & C/LF Blake Swihart. Sales surplus value is near 150 million and going by the point of Pittsburgh's mlb prospect surplus values, this deal on Boston’s end comes in around 165 million while not taking into account Swihart’s value and the premium placed on the free agent market since it is a seller’s market this offseason.

 

Jose Quintana to Houston for SS/3B/2B Alex Bregman, RHP Francis Martes, RHP David Paulino & OF Teoscar Hernandez. It has been said this offseason Houston is willing to move Bregman for a top of the line starter and Quintana fits the bill. Jose’s surplus value comes in right around 130m, this package without factoring in Hernandez’s value comes in at about 120 so its a bit light in comparison to the Sale package so there could be an additional piece added.

 

Jose Abreu to Texas for LHP Yohander Mendez, 3B/1B/LF Joey Gallo, OF Leody Taveras. The rangers have holes with their starting pitching, first base and center field, this trade was a bit of a challenge to properly value. I see Aberu’s value being somewhere near 40 million while Joey Gallo’s value continues to plummet in a similar fashion to Mike Olt. Yohander looks to be a mid to back of the rotation starter and Taveras offers a lot of upside but will take a bit of time to develop in the minors.

 

Todd Frazier, Nate Jones & Brett Lawrie to Los Angeles for 1B/OF Cody Bellinger, 2B/C Austin Barnes & SS Gavin Lux. I think the dodgers pass on re-signing Turner and Utley and will need an additional arm out of the pen to back up Jansen or Chapman or whomever they sign this offseason. Bellinger doesn’t have a path in LA for the foreseeable future with Adrian locked up. Barnes hasn’t delivered on any of his promise yet and will be 27 on opening day and Lux is a prospect the white sox heavily scouted during the ‘16 draft. Frazier offers both surplus value and a likely draft pick after ‘17. Jones is an asset that should provide anywhere from 28-40m in surplus value alone during the life of his contract and Lawrie gives them a second basemen with youth and some upside with a slim chance of getting a draft pick in ‘17. If the dodgers go this route and QO Turner and Jansen while signing Chapman and trading for Frazier that affords them two additional draft picks in the ‘17 draft.

 

David Robertson to San Francisco for OF Bryan Reynolds and LHP Steven Okert. Even with his knee being cleaned out before the start of the season relief pitching will be at a premium after the world series demonstrations of Chicago and Cleveland. Robertson has a little bit of surplus value and is likely being paid nearly what he is worth. Reynolds was the Giants first round draft pick from vanderbilt and a switch hitter another prospect that would be in the mold of the direction of "baseball players" as seen by drafting Collins, Fisher and Call. Okert looks to be a middle reliever that can handle both righties and lefties

 

Melky Cabrera and Miguel Gonzalez to Toronto for RHP Sean Reid-Foley and LHP Angel Perdomo. Depending on what you think 1 WAR will cost this offseason this is a very close and "fair" trade; Reid-Foley has a surplus value of 15.6m and Gonzalez’s value will likely be around 14M. There is no way the jays QO Saunders for 17.2m, Melky is likely being paid what he will produce for ‘17 and there is a slim chance they could extend him a QO next year, same applies for Gonzalez. There is familiarity with Melky within the organization and Gonzalez has had success in the East previously with the O’s. Reid-Foley is a classic white sox pitching target - "Reid-Foley's delivery and arm action may not be picturesque, but he has the physical strength and athleticism to repeat both." Perdomo is a solid looking lottery ticket, both of these arms haven’t moved beyond high A.

 

Summary

The only pieces of the current 25 man roster that will likely be around for the next White Sox window are Carlos Rodon, Adam Eaton and Tim Anderson, by having a fire sale in this fashion the farm system now has waves of talent to infuse as not all prospects will pan out.

 

The remaining pen arms that are solid: Petricka, Putman and Jennings can be moved at the deadline with the place holding rotation members and veteran bats provided they perform, if not they served their purpose of mentoring the future core while ideally getting an additional year of control out of them by keeping them down on the farm.

 

This team will likely have a top 5 draft pick in ‘18 and a top 10 pick in ‘19.

 

Here is what the organization’s depth chart would like at the start of ‘17

 

 

Here is what the 25 man roster would look like going into mid ‘18

 

Edited November 4, 2016 by beautox

[chw42]

Beautox’s Offseason Plan

 

Arbitration-eligible (with projected salaries from MLBTR):

Todd Frazier, $13.5M - Tender

Brett Lawrie, $5.1M - Tender

Avisail Garcia, $3.5M - Non-Tender

Miguel Gonzalez, $2.6M - Tender

Dan Jennings, $1.2M - Tender

J.B. Shuck, $1M - Non-Tender

Jake Petricka, $900K - Tender

Zach Putnam, $900K - Tender

Daniel Webb, $600K - Non-Tender

 

Explain the toughest calls if necessary: Pretty straight forward across the board

 

Contract options (pick up or buy out)

Matt Albers: $3M for 2017 or a $250,000 buyout - Buyout

Impending free agents (re-sign, let go or qualifying offer)

Austin Jackson: Made $5 million in 2016. - Let Go

Alex Avila: Made $2.5 million in 2016. - Let Go

Justin Morneau: Made $1 million in 2016, although he signed during the season. - Re-Sign for 2.5 million.

 

Free agents

Sign a number of project pitchers like CJ Wilson, Jarrod Parker, Doug Fister and others to suppress the future rotation’s arbitration eligibility.

 

Sign someone like Mark Teixeira as a nice veteran presence and possible player to be flipped at the deadline in a similar fashion as Carlos Beltran last deadline.

 

Trade

I'll be using The Point of Pittsburgh as a soft guide to surplus value of prospects for this exercise.

 

Chris Sale to Boston for OF Andrew Benintendi, 3B Rafael Devers, LHP Jason Groome & C/LF Blake Swihart. Sales surplus value is near 150 million and going by the point of Pittsburgh's mlb prospect surplus values, this deal on Boston’s end comes in around 165 million while not taking into account Swihart’s value and the premium placed on the free agent market since it is a seller’s market this offseason.

 

Jose Quintana to Houston for SS/3B/2B Alex Bregman, RHP Francis Martes, RHP David Paulino & OF Teoscar Hernandez. It has been said this offseason Houston is willing to move Bregman for a top of the line starter and Quintana fits the bill. Jose’s surplus value comes in right around 130m, this package without factoring in Hernandez’s value comes in at about 120 so its a bit light in comparison to the Sale package so there could be an additional piece added.

 

Jose Abreu to Texas for LHP Yohander Mendez, 3B/1B/LF Joey Gallo, OF Leody Taveras. The rangers have holes with their starting pitching, first base and center field, this trade was a bit of a challenge to properly value. I see Aberu’s value being somewhere near 40 million while Joey Gallo’s value continues to plummet in a similar fashion to Mike Olt. Yohander looks to be a mid to back of the rotation starter and Taveras offers a lot of upside but will take a bit of time to develop in the minors.

 

Todd Frazier, Nate Jones & Brett Lawrie to Los Angeles for 1B/OF Cody Bellinger, 2B/C Austin Barnes & SS Gavin Lux. I think the dodgers pass on re-signing Turner and Utley and will need an additional arm out of the pen to back up Jansen or Chapman or whomever they sign this offseason. Bellinger doesn’t have a path in LA for the foreseeable future with Adrian locked up. Barnes hasn’t delivered on any of his promise yet and will be 27 on opening day and Lux is a prospect the white sox heavily scouted during the ‘16 draft. Frazier offers both surplus value and a likely draft pick after ‘17. Jones is an asset that should provide anywhere from 28-40m in surplus value alone during the life of his contract and Lawrie gives them a second basemen with youth and some upside with a slim chance of getting a draft pick in ‘17. If the dodgers go this route and QO Turner and Jansen while signing Chapman and trading for Frazier that affords them two additional draft picks in the ‘17 draft.

 

David Robertson to San Francisco for OF Bryan Reynolds and LHP Steven Okert. Even with his knee being cleaned out before the start of the season relief pitching will be at a premium after the world series demonstrations of Chicago and Cleveland. Robertson has a little bit of surplus value and is likely being paid nearly what he is worth. Reynolds was the Giants first round draft pick from vanderbilt and a switch hitter another prospect that would be in the mold of the direction of "baseball players" as seen by drafting Collins, Fisher and Call. Okert looks to be a middle reliever that can handle both righties and lefties

 

Melky Cabrera and Miguel Gonzalez to Toronto for RHP Sean Reid-Foley and LHP Angel Perdomo. Depending on what you think 1 WAR will cost this offseason this is a very close and "fair" trade; Reid-Foley has a surplus value of 15.6m and Gonzalez’s value will likely be around 14M. There is no way the jays QO Saunders for 17.2m, Melky is likely being paid what he will produce for ‘17 and there is a slim chance they could extend him a QO next year, same applies for Gonzalez. There is familiarity with Melky within the organization and Gonzalez has had success in the East previously with the O’s. Reid-Foley is a classic white sox pitching target - "Reid-Foley's delivery and arm action may not be picturesque, but he has the physical strength and athleticism to repeat both." Perdomo is a solid looking lottery ticket, both of these arms haven’t moved beyond high A.

 

Summary

The only pieces of the current 25 man roster that will likely be around for the next White Sox window are Carlos Rodon, Adam Eaton and Tim Anderson, by having a fire sale in this fashion the farm system now has waves of talent to infuse as not all prospects will pan out.

 

The remaining pen arms that are solid: Petricka, Putman and Jennings can be moved at the deadline with the place holding rotation members and veteran bats provided they perform, if not they served their purpose of mentoring the future core while ideally getting an additional year of control out of them by keeping them down on the farm.

 

This team will likely have a top 5 draft pick in ‘18 and a top 10 pick in ‘19.

 

Here is what the organization’s depth chart would like at the start of ‘17

 

 

Here is what the 25 man roster would look like going into mid ‘18

 

 

Damn. This is total firesale mode. That team might not even win 50 games.

 

[iamshack]

That is a hell of an effort though...I'm impressed!

[beautox]

Damn. This is total firesale mode. That team might not even win 50 games.

I agree but if the sox aren't going to make the post season what difference does it make if they win 50 or 86 games? better to at least secure a higher draft pick and international bonus pool considerations and potential international draft slots then continue down this path while burning through this "cores" value. The tribe isn't going anywhere, the royals even after being .500 this year aren't going anywhere and the tigers even after finishing above .500 understand its time to rebuild. Additionally the sox could add maybe 30+ million this off season and still barely be at .500 its not worth it; especially when you consider if they go down this route in the not too distant future Machado and Harper will be hitting the market at very young ages and free agent pitching market gets better moving forward and aligns with this teams "window".

 

That is a hell of an effort though...I'm impressed!

Thanks i tried to embed this

[greg775]

Damn. This is total firesale mode. That team might not even win 50 games.

With the pitching staff in this scenario it might only win 40 games. It would be the worst team by far in baseball history. Lot of good prospects acquired, but would the pitching ever recover to ever make us contenders?

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I'm a big fan of that Quintana trade. Someone over at SSS pointed out Houston being a good trade target, and Bregman is obviously super interesting.

 

Also saw someone there mention Billy Hamilton and that seemed like a pretty good, realistic option.

[SonofaRoache]

I agree but if the sox aren't going to make the post season what difference does it make if they win 50 or 86 games? better to at least secure a higher draft pick and international bonus pool considerations and potential international draft slots then continue down this path while burning through this "cores" value. The tribe isn't going anywhere, the royals even after being .500 this year aren't going anywhere and the tigers even after finishing above .500 understand its time to rebuild. Additionally the sox could add maybe 30+ million this off season and still barely be at .500 its not worth it; especially when you consider if they go down this route in the not too distant future Machado and Harper will be hitting the market at very young ages and free agent pitching market gets better moving forward and aligns with this teams "window".

 

 

Thanks i tried to embed this

 

 

The difference is 75% of Sox fans who are angry with management and have little faith management knows what it is doing may just go across town to enjoy winning baseball. I was on the southside all day yesterday and couldn't count the amount of Cubs shirts, W flags, and "GO CUBS GO" signs. The Sox can not afford anymore non competitive seasons. They actually have a solid team that could compete if they got a competent catcher, center fielder, and 4th starter (Shields is a 5 at this point).

[2nd_city_saint787]

Not going too elaborate but......

 

Sale for Benintendi/Moncada/Swihart

 

Sign Reddick and Nova(neither cost a pick)

 

C-Swihart

1B-Abreu

2B-Moncada

3B-Fraizer

SS-Anderson

LF- Reddick/Eaton

CF- Benintendi/Eaton

RF- Eaton/Reddick

 

Q-Rodon-Nova-Gonzalez-Shields

 

Petricka and Putnam coming back will help the pen. Fully expect Burdi up at somepoint too.....Also hope Fulmer pans out as a starter.

 

[GGajewski18]

Not going too elaborate but......

 

Sale for Benintendi/Moncada/Swihart

 

Sign Reddick and Nova(neither cost a pick)

 

C-Swihart

1B-Abreu

2B-Moncada

3B-Fraizer

SS-Anderson

LF- Reddick/Eaton

CF- Benintendi/Eaton

RF- Eaton/Reddick

 

Q-Rodon-Nova-Gonzalez-Shields

 

Petricka and Putnam coming back will help the pen. Fully expect Burdi up at somepoint too.....Also hope Fulmer pans out as a starter.

 

That lineup looks real good on paper and realistic too.

[PolishPrince34]

I put my plan up 2 weeks ago on SouthSideSox and also had the plan on a different topic page. Here you go again who didn't see it.

 

 

Here is my attachment I wrote up up for my wish list the front office would do if they decided to Rebuild.

 

No if and’s about it-REBUILD. The Chicago White Sox need to go balls to the wall with a full out rebuild. Here we go and buckle yours seats.

 

 

Todd Frazier, $13.5M - Tender

Brett Lawrie, $5.1M - Tender

Avisail Garcia, $3.5M - Non-tender

Miguel Gonzalez, $2.6M - Tender

Dan Jennings, $1.2M - Tender

J.B. Shuck, $1M - Non-tender

Jake Petricka, $900K - Tender

Zach Putnam, $900K - Tender

Daniel Webb, $600K - Non-tender

All of these decisions were fairly easily to come by. More to come on some of the players included in trades.

 

 

After arbitration cases, the White Sox payroll is at $97.25 million

Contract options (pick up or buy out)

Matt Albers: buyout pay Matt Albers $250,000. This amount is included in the $97.25 million.

Impending free agents (re-sign, let go or qualifying offer)

Austin Jackson: Let go

Alex Avila: Let go

Justin Morneau: Let go

All three players are injury prone and past their prime.

Free agents

 

 

1) Derek Holland - 1 year, 6 million ($3M incentives)

Derek Holland has been snakebitten by injuries the past 2 ½ years. When healthy he still possesses two solid pitches with his fastball and slider. His velocity has gone from 94.7 mph to career low 90.3 mph this past year. A lot of it has to do with shoulder and knee issues. Hopefully with an offseason where he doesn’t have to rehab a major injury. Holland will be able to get his velocity back up to 92mph. If Holland has an adequate season use a trade chip during the season.

 

2)RA Dickey (1 year/5 million)

Dickey is an innings eater you can use at #4 or #5 of your starting rotation to help save your arms in the bullpen. Yes, he’s getting up there in age, but still keeps the ball in the ballpark and throws decent velocity with his knuckleball. Again can use as a trade chip during the season.

 

3) Travis Wood (3 year/$16 million)

Wood is athletic and still relatively young at Age 30. We need a veteran reliever to have a calming influence with the youth in the bullpen. Wood can also be a valuable trade chip during the deadline

 

4) Joe Smith (1 year/ $2 million)

Again Smith brings that veteran leadership to the young team. Hope he bounces back and be traded at the deadline. Has had a solid career up until the last 3 months of 2016 season.

 

 

4) Minor League Free Agent Deal

 

 

Kris Medlen

Tommy Hunter

CJ Wilson

Ryan Raburn/Sox Killer

David Lough

 

 

After free agent signings, the White Sox payroll is at $115.25 million

Trades

1) Trade SP Chris Sale to the Boston Red Sox for Yoan Moncado 2B, Jackie Bradley OF, Michael Kopech SP, Blake Swihart C, Henry Ramos OF, Roniel Raudes SP

 

 

There are only a couple teams with enough ammunition to pull off a trade with the White Sox for Chris Sale. That main team is the Boston Red Sox. With Dave Dombrowski in charge he pulls the trigger to get one of the elite pitchers in the game. Moncado is the main treasure in this trade and #1 prospect in the game. Moncado needs some more seasoning in the minors next year with his plate recognition, being able to hit offspeed pitches, and infield defense. Moncado has the potential to be an elite leadoff hitter in the game. The sky's the limit. Jackie Bradley becomes your instant starting CF and improves yours defense deficiency in the OF and makes all your pitchers extremely happy. Plus you can’t go wrong with his improved offense the past 2 years. Michael Kopech has a chance to be #1 or #2 starter in your rotation. He has a plus/plus fastball, but still struggles with his command. He still needs time to develop his breaking ball and changeup, but showed a lot of improvement with those 2 pitches this past season. The key to Kopech is repeating his athletic delivery and having a command of all 3 pitches. If he can we are looking at a Top 20 pitcher in baseball. Swihart instantly goes back to catching and continues his development. Way too talented and athletic to move him out of the catching position. The last 2 players are lottery tickets who need a couple more seasons down in the minors to develop. Henry Ramos played in Double A and can play any 3 outfield positions. Right Field being his best position. Henry has had an injuries the past 2 seasons that has stunted some of his development. Ramos has a ton of raw power that can put on a show during batting practice. If he can translate that into game action we are looking at an everyday player. Roniel Raudes is an 18 year old right handed SP that was a international signing two years ago. He possesses three average pitches and if he adds muscle to his 6-1 160 lb. frame the fastball will turn into a plus pitch. Raudes has a potential to be a mid-rotation pitcher, but has another 3 years to develop.

 

2) Trade SP Jose Quintana and Tyler Saladino to Texas Rangers for Joey Gallo 1B/3B, Jurckison Profar SS/2B, Yohander Mendes SP, and Leody Taveras OF

 

After another early exit from the playoffs. Rangers decide to pull the trigger and go after elite talent Quintana. Quintana gives Texas probably the best #1-3 starters in all of baseball with Hamels, Darvish, and Quintana. Plus you can’t go wrong with ridiculous cheap contract. Sox in return get their future 1B in Joey Gallo. Gallo possesses 80 power and in a bandbox such as Guaranteed Rate Park/Can’t believe that’s our stadium name he should have no problem hitting 40+ homers each season. If Gallo can improve his contact rate and cut down his K% and manage to hit 230-250 avg with .350 OBP we are looking at a key piece for the future. Former #1 overall prospect Profar can play any position in the field. Finally he played a full season and showed solid production after dealing with shoulder issues the past two seasons. Profar regressed little with making hard contact and stealing bases. That should've been expected after 2 years away from the game. Hopefully having an healthy offseason to prepare for next season will bring back some of the tools that made him the best prospect in the game. Yohander Mendes SP is left hander who made a brief appearance with Rangers this past year. He throws a plus fastball and changeup that has nice tilt to it. The third pitch/slider is the key which still needs some time to develop. If the slider developes he can be instantly put in your mid-rotation. The lottery ticket is OF Leody Taveras a big international signing in 2015. Made his debut in the states and showed 5 tools across the board. Taveras has one of the highest ceilings in all of baseball.

 

 

3) Trade 1B Jose Abreu to Cleveland Indians for Bradley Zimmer OF and Juan Hillman SP

 

Trade Abreu while he’s in his prime and when he’s about to start getting up there in salary. Cleveland needs a younger power 1B/DH type in the middle of the lineup. Good chance Napoli doesn’t resign with Indians after having a monster season. Sox in return get a 4 tool OF that can play anywhere in the OF. Zimmer is a future 20/20 candidate the only tool lagging right now is his hitting with enough contact and bringing down the K%. Zimmer played most of the year in AA/AAA. Might need a little more seasoning, but very close to playing everyday at the big show. Juan Hillman is former supplemental 1st round pick in 2014 whose very athletic and still young that isn’t close to reaching his ceiling at the age of 19. He’s a lefthander who still needs to but on some bulk to help with his fastball velocity. His best pitch is his changeup with his breaking ball lagging behind, but shows potential to be an average pitch. Hillman has a chance to be a mid-rotation SP. Still needs a couple years to develop.

 

 

4)Trade 3B Todd Frazier and 2B Brett Lawrie for Justin Dunn SP, Kevin Plawecki C, and Thomas Szapucki SP

 

Mets needs some help offensively in the infield at 3B/2B. They decide not to resign Todd Walker due to back surgery and being a free agent. Sox get the Mets 1st round pick from last year Justin Dunn. Justin Dunn has the potential to be a starting pitcher or fast riser if they decide he’s a reliever. Dunn throws 4 pitches. Three of the pitches: Fastball, curve, and changeup show plus offerings. The question is his command and whether his body can sustain SP workload. If it can’t you have an electric reliever. Reminds me a lot of CJ Edwards, but has a little more bulk. I’ve always been a fan of Plawecki as a catcher. Plays solid defense and if given the chance can be an everyday starting catcher who can hit. Plawecki hasn’t had the chance with Mets. Thomas Szapucki is a lefthander SP that throws in the low 90s. He throws a plus curve, but changeup is very fringe average. Delivery and command needs work, but if puts it together back of rotation SP.

 

 

5) RP David Robertson and OF Melky Cabrera to San Francisco Giants for SS/3B Christian Arroyo and SP Chase Johnson

 

 

Giants whiff on relief pitching market because the money given to Chapman, Jensen, and Melancon is outrageous. Robertson becomes their closer and Cabrera their everyday LF. Sox get their future 3B in Christian Arroyo whose very close to being ready. Has played SS his whole minor league career, but his future is at 3b due to his limited range at short. Arroyo best tool is his hitting. Can be a perennial ,300 Avg/350 OBP with some power 20/25 homers. Big fan of Arroyo. Johnson was used as a starter in Double A and was very successful. His future is in the bullpen. Throws a heavy fastball in mid 90s that sinks. Curveball and changeup are still behind which puts in the bullpen.

 

 

6) RP Carson Fulmer and 2B Carlos Sanchez to Colorado Rockies for Jeff Hoffman

Sox finally realize that Fulmer is best suited for the bullpen and trade him to Colorado along with Sanchez who becomes their UTLM off the bench. Sox get a starting pitcher back in Hoffman who could use a little more time in Triple A before hitting the show. Hoffman’s stuff has come back after having Tommy John surgery and has regained his plus fastball/curve. Fastball has a lot of sink which is great for our ballpark. Needs to still work on command and developing his changeup which sometimes shows as a plus pitch.

 

 

The trades reduces the salary dramatically. The White Sox will pay Rodon, Anderson, Zimmer, Profar, Arroyo, Swihart, Gallo, Davidson, Tilson, Burdi, and Coats the league minimum. That brings the payroll to someplace close to $52 million.

Lineup

1) Adam Eaton - RF

2) Jurickson Profar - 2B/ Moncado

3) Jackie Bradley - CF

4) Joey Gallo - 1B

5) Christian Arroyo - 3B

6) Tim Anderson - SS

7) Bradley Zimmer - LF

8) Blake Swihart - C

9) Matt Davidson - DH

Bench

 

 

1) Kevin Plawecki - C

2) Jake Peter/Eddie Alvarez

3) Charlie Tilson - OF

4) Jason Coats

5) Ryan Raburn

 

 

Starting Rotation

 

 

1) Carlos Rodon - LHP

2) Miguel Gonzalez - RHP

3) Derek Holland - LHP

4) James Shields - RHP

5) RA Dickey- RHP / Hoffman / Mendes / Kopech/ Adams

 

Bullpen

 

 

1) Nate Jones - RHP

2) Zach Putnam - RHP

3) Dan Jennings - LHP

4) Zack Burdi - RHP

5) Jake Petricka-RHP or Tyler Danish

6) Joe Smith - RHP

7) Travis Wood - LHP

 

I think this team will be right around that mark around 78 wins again. I’m going after no free agents that have any qualifying offers/draft compensation tied to them. No need in a full rebuild. This team will be fun, exciting, entertaining, and see everyday improvement. I’m waiting for a rebuild along the lines of this. Salary Cap at $52 million. Savings close $66 million from trading all the high end salaries. This gives the White Sox a chance to go crazy this international season before the draft starts in 2018 with the new collective bargaining agreement. Also, spend some of the money you saved bringing in highly qualified people outside the organization to help with pro and minor league scouting, player development in the minors/international scene. Let’s hope Shields can bounce back and then trade his salary off. You a have a low salary cap with high ceiling young players for the next two years. Then the White Sox can jump into 2018 free agent class where you can make a huge splash for Machado, Harper, Donaldson, Miller, etc.

 

 

Let the REBUILDING begin!!!!!!

[chw42]

I agree but if the sox aren't going to make the post season what difference does it make if they win 50 or 86 games? better to at least secure a higher draft pick and international bonus pool considerations and potential international draft slots then continue down this path while burning through this "cores" value. The tribe isn't going anywhere, the royals even after being .500 this year aren't going anywhere and the tigers even after finishing above .500 understand its time to rebuild. Additionally the sox could add maybe 30+ million this off season and still barely be at .500 its not worth it; especially when you consider if they go down this route in the not too distant future Machado and Harper will be hitting the market at very young ages and free agent pitching market gets better moving forward and aligns with this teams "window".

 

 

Thanks i tried to embed this

 

I don't think we can get away with a team that might not even win 50 games. IMO a tear down is something like trade one of Quintana or Sale (not both) and get rid of guys like Frazier, Melky, Robertson. That way, you at least give fans a reason to come to the park. We'll easily be last in attendance and lose any sort of relevancy (we don't have much right now) if we decide to trade every valuable piece we have.

[Dunt]

Beautox’s Offseason Plan

 

Arbitration-eligible (with projected salaries from MLBTR):

Todd Frazier, $13.5M - Tender

Brett Lawrie, $5.1M - Tender

Avisail Garcia, $3.5M - Non-Tender

Miguel Gonzalez, $2.6M - Tender

Dan Jennings, $1.2M - Tender

J.B. Shuck, $1M - Non-Tender

Jake Petricka, $900K - Tender

Zach Putnam, $900K - Tender

Daniel Webb, $600K - Non-Tender

 

Explain the toughest calls if necessary: Pretty straight forward across the board

 

Contract options (pick up or buy out)

Matt Albers: $3M for 2017 or a $250,000 buyout - Buyout

Impending free agents (re-sign, let go or qualifying offer)

Austin Jackson: Made $5 million in 2016. - Let Go

Alex Avila: Made $2.5 million in 2016. - Let Go

Justin Morneau: Made $1 million in 2016, although he signed during the season. - Re-Sign for 2.5 million.

 

Free agents

Sign a number of project pitchers like CJ Wilson, Jarrod Parker, Doug Fister and others to suppress the future rotation’s arbitration eligibility.

 

Sign someone like Mark Teixeira as a nice veteran presence and possible player to be flipped at the deadline in a similar fashion as Carlos Beltran last deadline.

 

Trade

I'll be using The Point of Pittsburgh as a soft guide to surplus value of prospects for this exercise.

 

Chris Sale to Boston for OF Andrew Benintendi, 3B Rafael Devers, LHP Jason Groome & C/LF Blake Swihart. Sales surplus value is near 150 million and going by the point of Pittsburgh's mlb prospect surplus values, this deal on Boston’s end comes in around 165 million while not taking into account Swihart’s value and the premium placed on the free agent market since it is a seller’s market this offseason.

 

Jose Quintana to Houston for SS/3B/2B Alex Bregman, RHP Francis Martes, RHP David Paulino & OF Teoscar Hernandez. It has been said this offseason Houston is willing to move Bregman for a top of the line starter and Quintana fits the bill. Jose’s surplus value comes in right around 130m, this package without factoring in Hernandez’s value comes in at about 120 so its a bit light in comparison to the Sale package so there could be an additional piece added.

 

Jose Abreu to Texas for LHP Yohander Mendez, 3B/1B/LF Joey Gallo, OF Leody Taveras. The rangers have holes with their starting pitching, first base and center field, this trade was a bit of a challenge to properly value. I see Aberu’s value being somewhere near 40 million while Joey Gallo’s value continues to plummet in a similar fashion to Mike Olt. Yohander looks to be a mid to back of the rotation starter and Taveras offers a lot of upside but will take a bit of time to develop in the minors.

 

Todd Frazier, Nate Jones & Brett Lawrie to Los Angeles for 1B/OF Cody Bellinger, 2B/C Austin Barnes & SS Gavin Lux. I think the dodgers pass on re-signing Turner and Utley and will need an additional arm out of the pen to back up Jansen or Chapman or whomever they sign this offseason. Bellinger doesn’t have a path in LA for the foreseeable future with Adrian locked up. Barnes hasn’t delivered on any of his promise yet and will be 27 on opening day and Lux is a prospect the white sox heavily scouted during the ‘16 draft. Frazier offers both surplus value and a likely draft pick after ‘17. Jones is an asset that should provide anywhere from 28-40m in surplus value alone during the life of his contract and Lawrie gives them a second basemen with youth and some upside with a slim chance of getting a draft pick in ‘17. If the dodgers go this route and QO Turner and Jansen while signing Chapman and trading for Frazier that affords them two additional draft picks in the ‘17 draft.

 

David Robertson to San Francisco for OF Bryan Reynolds and LHP Steven Okert. Even with his knee being cleaned out before the start of the season relief pitching will be at a premium after the world series demonstrations of Chicago and Cleveland. Robertson has a little bit of surplus value and is likely being paid nearly what he is worth. Reynolds was the Giants first round draft pick from vanderbilt and a switch hitter another prospect that would be in the mold of the direction of "baseball players" as seen by drafting Collins, Fisher and Call. Okert looks to be a middle reliever that can handle both righties and lefties

 

Melky Cabrera and Miguel Gonzalez to Toronto for RHP Sean Reid-Foley and LHP Angel Perdomo. Depending on what you think 1 WAR will cost this offseason this is a very close and "fair" trade; Reid-Foley has a surplus value of 15.6m and Gonzalez’s value will likely be around 14M. There is no way the jays QO Saunders for 17.2m, Melky is likely being paid what he will produce for ‘17 and there is a slim chance they could extend him a QO next year, same applies for Gonzalez. There is familiarity with Melky within the organization and Gonzalez has had success in the East previously with the O’s. Reid-Foley is a classic white sox pitching target - "Reid-Foley's delivery and arm action may not be picturesque, but he has the physical strength and athleticism to repeat both." Perdomo is a solid looking lottery ticket, both of these arms haven’t moved beyond high A.

 

Summary

The only pieces of the current 25 man roster that will likely be around for the next White Sox window are Carlos Rodon, Adam Eaton and Tim Anderson, by having a fire sale in this fashion the farm system now has waves of talent to infuse as not all prospects will pan out.

 

The remaining pen arms that are solid: Petricka, Putman and Jennings can be moved at the deadline with the place holding rotation members and veteran bats provided they perform, if not they served their purpose of mentoring the future core while ideally getting an additional year of control out of them by keeping them down on the farm.

 

This team will likely have a top 5 draft pick in ‘18 and a top 10 pick in ‘19.

 

Here is what the organization’s depth chart would like at the start of ‘17

 

 

Here is what the 25 man roster would look like going into mid ‘18

 

 

f*** man, beautifully laid out post! How did you do the custom depth chart? That is very cool.

[2nd_city_saint787]

That lineup looks real good on paper and realistic too.

 

Oh, and Melky at DH. ...Collins takes over after next year

[ChiSoxFanMike]

Collins is so intriguing to me. I doubt he'll be ready to come up next year and I don't think he'll stick at catcher, but he supposedly has an elite bat that can play anywhere. I think he ends up at first base or DH.

[Bob Sacamano]

Beautox’s Offseason Plan

 

Arbitration-eligible (with projected salaries from MLBTR):

Todd Frazier, $13.5M - Tender

Brett Lawrie, $5.1M - Tender

Avisail Garcia, $3.5M - Non-Tender

Miguel Gonzalez, $2.6M - Tender

Dan Jennings, $1.2M - Tender

J.B. Shuck, $1M - Non-Tender

Jake Petricka, $900K - Tender

Zach Putnam, $900K - Tender

Daniel Webb, $600K - Non-Tender

 

Explain the toughest calls if necessary: Pretty straight forward across the board

 

Contract options (pick up or buy out)

Matt Albers: $3M for 2017 or a $250,000 buyout - Buyout

Impending free agents (re-sign, let go or qualifying offer)

Austin Jackson: Made $5 million in 2016. - Let Go

Alex Avila: Made $2.5 million in 2016. - Let Go

Justin Morneau: Made $1 million in 2016, although he signed during the season. - Re-Sign for 2.5 million.

 

Free agents

Sign a number of project pitchers like CJ Wilson, Jarrod Parker, Doug Fister and others to suppress the future rotation’s arbitration eligibility.

 

Sign someone like Mark Teixeira as a nice veteran presence and possible player to be flipped at the deadline in a similar fashion as Carlos Beltran last deadline.

 

Trade

I'll be using The Point of Pittsburgh as a soft guide to surplus value of prospects for this exercise.

 

Chris Sale to Boston for OF Andrew Benintendi, 3B Rafael Devers, LHP Jason Groome & C/LF Blake Swihart. Sales surplus value is near 150 million and going by the point of Pittsburgh's mlb prospect surplus values, this deal on Boston’s end comes in around 165 million while not taking into account Swihart’s value and the premium placed on the free agent market since it is a seller’s market this offseason.

 

Jose Quintana to Houston for SS/3B/2B Alex Bregman, RHP Francis Martes, RHP David Paulino & OF Teoscar Hernandez. It has been said this offseason Houston is willing to move Bregman for a top of the line starter and Quintana fits the bill. Jose’s surplus value comes in right around 130m, this package without factoring in Hernandez’s value comes in at about 120 so its a bit light in comparison to the Sale package so there could be an additional piece added.

 

Jose Abreu to Texas for LHP Yohander Mendez, 3B/1B/LF Joey Gallo, OF Leody Taveras. The rangers have holes with their starting pitching, first base and center field, this trade was a bit of a challenge to properly value. I see Aberu’s value being somewhere near 40 million while Joey Gallo’s value continues to plummet in a similar fashion to Mike Olt. Yohander looks to be a mid to back of the rotation starter and Taveras offers a lot of upside but will take a bit of time to develop in the minors.

 

Todd Frazier, Nate Jones & Brett Lawrie to Los Angeles for 1B/OF Cody Bellinger, 2B/C Austin Barnes & SS Gavin Lux. I think the dodgers pass on re-signing Turner and Utley and will need an additional arm out of the pen to back up Jansen or Chapman or whomever they sign this offseason. Bellinger doesn’t have a path in LA for the foreseeable future with Adrian locked up. Barnes hasn’t delivered on any of his promise yet and will be 27 on opening day and Lux is a prospect the white sox heavily scouted during the ‘16 draft. Frazier offers both surplus value and a likely draft pick after ‘17. Jones is an asset that should provide anywhere from 28-40m in surplus value alone during the life of his contract and Lawrie gives them a second basemen with youth and some upside with a slim chance of getting a draft pick in ‘17. If the dodgers go this route and QO Turner and Jansen while signing Chapman and trading for Frazier that affords them two additional draft picks in the ‘17 draft.

 

David Robertson to San Francisco for OF Bryan Reynolds and LHP Steven Okert. Even with his knee being cleaned out before the start of the season relief pitching will be at a premium after the world series demonstrations of Chicago and Cleveland. Robertson has a little bit of surplus value and is likely being paid nearly what he is worth. Reynolds was the Giants first round draft pick from vanderbilt and a switch hitter another prospect that would be in the mold of the direction of "baseball players" as seen by drafting Collins, Fisher and Call. Okert looks to be a middle reliever that can handle both righties and lefties

 

Melky Cabrera and Miguel Gonzalez to Toronto for RHP Sean Reid-Foley and LHP Angel Perdomo. Depending on what you think 1 WAR will cost this offseason this is a very close and "fair" trade; Reid-Foley has a surplus value of 15.6m and Gonzalez’s value will likely be around 14M. There is no way the jays QO Saunders for 17.2m, Melky is likely being paid what he will produce for ‘17 and there is a slim chance they could extend him a QO next year, same applies for Gonzalez. There is familiarity with Melky within the organization and Gonzalez has had success in the East previously with the O’s. Reid-Foley is a classic white sox pitching target - "Reid-Foley's delivery and arm action may not be picturesque, but he has the physical strength and athleticism to repeat both." Perdomo is a solid looking lottery ticket, both of these arms haven’t moved beyond high A.

 

Summary

The only pieces of the current 25 man roster that will likely be around for the next White Sox window are Carlos Rodon, Adam Eaton and Tim Anderson, by having a fire sale in this fashion the farm system now has waves of talent to infuse as not all prospects will pan out.

 

The remaining pen arms that are solid: Petricka, Putman and Jennings can be moved at the deadline with the place holding rotation members and veteran bats provided they perform, if not they served their purpose of mentoring the future core while ideally getting an additional year of control out of them by keeping them down on the farm.

 

This team will likely have a top 5 draft pick in ‘18 and a top 10 pick in ‘19.

 

Here is what the organization’s depth chart would like at the start of ‘17

 

 

Here is what the 25 man roster would look like going into mid ‘18

 

 

I know you just used Tex as an example, but he is retiring. I can totally see us signing someone like Matt Holiday though which is basically same concept.

 

[ChiSox59]

2) Trade SP Jose Quintana and Tyler Saladino to Texas Rangers for Joey Gallo 1B/3B, Jurckison Profar SS/2B, Yohander Mendes SP, and Leody Taveras OF

 

After another early exit from the playoffs. Rangers decide to pull the trigger and go after elite talent Quintana. Quintana gives Texas probably the best #1-3 starters in all of baseball with Hamels, Darvish, and Quintana. Plus you can’t go wrong with ridiculous cheap contract. Sox in return get their future 1B in Joey Gallo. Gallo possesses 80 power and in a bandbox such as Guaranteed Rate Park/Can’t believe that’s our stadium name he should have no problem hitting 40+ homers each season. If Gallo can improve his contact rate and cut down his K% and manage to hit 230-250 avg with .350 OBP we are looking at a key piece for the future. Former #1 overall prospect Profar can play any position in the field. Finally he played a full season and showed solid production after dealing with shoulder issues the past two seasons. Profar regressed little with making hard contact and stealing bases. That should've been expected after 2 years away from the game. Hopefully having an healthy offseason to prepare for next season will bring back some of the tools that made him the best prospect in the game. Yohander Mendes SP is left hander who made a brief appearance with Rangers this past year. He throws a plus fastball and changeup that has nice tilt to it. The third pitch/slider is the key which still needs some time to develop. If the slider developes he can be instantly put in your mid-rotation. The lottery ticket is OF Leody Taveras a big international signing in 2015. Made his debut in the states and showed 5 tools across the board. Taveras has one of the highest ceilings in all of baseball.

 

Not bad mouthing your entire post as you obviously put a ton of time into it, but this would be horrible trade for Quintana.

 

[beautox]

I'm a big fan of that Quintana trade. Someone over at SSS pointed out Houston being a good trade target, and Bregman is obviously super interesting.

 

I like Bregman a lot and Houston needs front line pitching and has elite players at SS and 2B so he is very much available for the right pitcher. Quintana has a ton of value but I don't see how the sox get out from under .500 with out having a fire sale.

 

 

The difference is 75% of Sox fans who are angry with management and have little faith management knows what it is doing may just go across town to enjoy winning baseball. I was on the southside all day yesterday and couldn't count the amount of Cubs shirts, W flags, and "GO CUBS GO" signs. The Sox can not afford anymore non competitive seasons. They actually have a solid team that could compete if they got a competent catcher, center fielder, and 4th starter (Shields is a 5 at this point).

 

100% of that 75% appears to be made up. Those fans have already left and moved on to the Cubs and thats fine, the white sox fan base and organization has no where to go but up, are attendance is bad and our major league roster is bad too. With the cubs winning the world series there should have taken the pressure of the sox front office to be competitive and a "draw" in this town. Cubs aren't going anywhere and the only way the sox get back to relevancy is with a sustained window of success this core with two possibly three elite pitchers, a great looking 1B and outfielder wasn't enough to get there, time to blow it up. They have maybe 30mil to spend this off season there aren't enough WAR on the free agent market for the sox to buy up to become anything more than a dark horse for the second wildcard.

 

I don't think we can get away with a team that might not even win 50 games. IMO a tear down is something like trade one of Quintana or Sale (not both) and get rid of guys like Frazier, Melky, Robertson. That way, you at least give fans a reason to come to the park. We'll easily be last in attendance and lose any sort of relevancy (we don't have much right now) if we decide to trade every valuable piece we have.

 

I think that team i presented wins more than 50 games, its a lot of talent on that roster albeit young and unproven talent but i could see things breaking the right way and them pulling a 2006 Marlins by way of them being incredibly talented. I think a core of Rodon, Anderson and Eaton appeases the fan base all are very relate-able in addition to all the young talent they would be bringing in. I agree that we don't have much by way of attendance and relevancy right now, so again what do we have to lose? another year of not making the post season while wishing they would've rebuilt while the north side of the city has a legit 6 year window in front of them?

 

f*** man, beautifully laid out post! How did you do the custom depth chart? That is very cool.

 

thanks, appreciate it, you can build one here

 

I know you just used Tex as an example, but he is retiring. I can totally see us signing someone like Matt Holiday though which is basically same concept.

Didn't know that, Holiday is another great example just a vet that could possibly be flipped and mentor the young core.