Baseball America Sox Top 10

[PolishPrince34]

Actually I am very disappointed in our Latin America work. I thought Paddy would help sooner and now I am wondering if he will at all. Nunez is about it, and he is not a stud.

Patience my friend. Hopefully this will be the year where the Sox will start seeing some growth in our lower level affiliates/A Levels and seeing some of the tools pan out for some of the international signings. You have to remember from the past Magglio Ordonez spent almost 6 years developing in the minors after being signed. Carlos Lee was around 5 1/2 in the minors. Not every player is Miguel Cabrera, Felix Hernandez, Andruw Jones, etc. who made it in the big leagues in 4 years. Majority of these players have never spent a second playing organized games. Most of the players are being showcased which stunts their development. One thing I would like for the Sox to target in the international scene is little more pitching. Since Paddy has taken over that has seemed to be ignored.

Edited November 11, 2016 by PolishPrince34

[NorthSideSox72]

Patience my friend. Hopefully this will be the year where the Sox will start seeing some growth in our lower level affiliates/A Levels and seeing some of the tools pan out for some of the international signings. You have to remember from the past Magglio Ordonez spent almost 6 years developing in the minors after being signed. Carlos Lee was around 5 1/2 in the minors. Not every player is Miguel Cabrera, Felix Hernandez, Andruw Jones, etc. who made it in the big leagues in 4 years. Majority of these players have never spent a second playing organized games. Most of the players are being showcased which stunts their development. One thing I would like for the Sox to target in the international scene is little more pitching. Since Paddy has taken over that has seemed to be ignored.

Paddy talked with one of our writers about pitching versus hitting internationally in this interview. You can get a read from him on that.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

Paddy talked with one of our writers about pitching versus hitting internationally in this interview. You can get a read from him on that.

The problem with this logic is the organization has shown almost no ability to develop prospects with poor hit tools. One of the reasons I think Call & Fisher definitely deserve to be rated higher than Adolfo.

[Two-Gun Pete]

You've decided that the guy who just finished in Class A at age 19, and who has some of the best power, arm and athletic tools in the entire system, is a non-prospect? Come on now. He certainly could be a bust, most prospects end up there, but giving up on him at this point is silly.

Yes, I am. And, I’ll attempt to do so, using 3 links as data points, and a few observations about Micker Adolfo.

 

Prospect Value, Success Rate, and Bust Rate for Top 100 Prospects

 

Summary: Most top 100 prospects fail to become productive [READ: >3 WAR in their first 6 years], and Micker Adolfo is light years away from being a top 100 prospect. Even if he were able to get himself into a Top 100 list somewhere, the most interesting part [to me] about this piece is that more than 56% of hitters ranked 51-75, and almost 64% of hitters from 76-100 provide

 

Strikeout Rate, Walk Rate, and future success for top prospects for 1990 – 2006 Prospects

 

Summary:

1. Initially, the writer thought that "High K" prospects almost always busted.

2. However, “high K” prospects can succeed, IF they also walk a lot, AND are high power hitters as well. [Meaning, IN games, not so-called “raw” power/batting practice power.]

3. Unfortunately [For Micker Adolfo] many of the “High K/High BB” prospects were either steroid cheats, and/or HOF/near-HOF power types.

4. Additionally, Adolfo is the worst type of prospect: “high K,” but “low BB.” On top of this, his supposed “power” hasn’t manifested itself, but then Avi was supposed to have a good amount of in-game power as well.

 

Dan Remenowsky and Low Minors Pitching

 

Dan Remenowsky was a WELL-above average pitcher in the low minors who never amounted to anything in the high minors. Micker Adolfo struck out to a ~30% clip to opposing pitchers that are, by and large, inferior to Remenowsky. By extension, this would infer that Adolfo is MORE of a “no hoper” than Remenowsky, not less.

 

 

 

About Adolfo:

 

1. His “Power” means NOTHING if he can’t get on base. Ask Keon Barnum, Matt Davidson, and all the other “raw power” types that Laumann and KW chased for years, and then how many of them amounted to anything at all.

2. He won’t be in the lineup frequently enough to use his “Arm,” if he can’t get on base. No manager will have a black hole in his lineup, no matter how awesome that offensive black hole’s arm is in the field.

3. His “athleticism” means NOTHING if he can’t get on base. Ask Mitchell, Walker, hell, even Michael Jordan if their “athleticism” made them ballplayers or not.

 

I certainly hope I’m proven wrong on Adolfo, but he’s a 3rd year pro who has made little-to-no progress hereto fore at the dish. My ideal outcome for him would be for him to have a “career year,” then be packaged with other pieces for some REAL prospects who can actually hit.

[Two-Gun Pete]

The problem with this logic is the organization has shown almost no ability to develop prospects with poor hit tools. One of the reasons I think Call & Fisher definitely deserve to be rated higher than Adolfo.

 

I agree here. While I can find no references to further my opinion, I don't think that a player's hit tool can be developed very much, at all. That is, a player either has the ability to hit, or he doesn't when he's signed. Subsequent coaching can only work "on the margins" of a player's hit tool, but coaching CANNOT turn Micker Adolfo into Tony Gwynn, or Keon Barnum into Frank Thomas. For that matter, I don't know if ANY coaching staff, in ANY organization can turn a guy who's allergic to walks and loves to strike out into a Kevin Youkilis-type.

 

 

If/when Adolfo busts out, though, it won't have been the coaching staff's fault, so much as it was the scouting department for signing a poor player in the first place. Garbage in, garbage out. At the same time, if/when Collins and Call and others succeed, it will have been mainly due to the scouting department finally putting an emphasis on OBP.

[NorthSideSox72]

Yes, I am. And, I’ll attempt to do so, using 3 links as data points, and a few observations about Micker Adolfo.

 

Prospect Value, Success Rate, and Bust Rate for Top 100 Prospects

 

Summary: Most top 100 prospects fail to become productive [READ: >3 WAR in their first 6 years], and Micker Adolfo is light years away from being a top 100 prospect. Even if he were able to get himself into a Top 100 list somewhere, the most interesting part [to me] about this piece is that more than 56% of hitters ranked 51-75, and almost 64% of hitters from 76-100 provide

 

Strikeout Rate, Walk Rate, and future success for top prospects for 1990 – 2006 Prospects

 

Summary:

1. Initially, the writer thought that "High K" prospects almost always busted.

2. However, “high K” prospects can succeed, IF they also walk a lot, AND are high power hitters as well. [Meaning, IN games, not so-called “raw” power/batting practice power.]

3. Unfortunately [For Micker Adolfo] many of the “High K/High BB” prospects were either steroid cheats, and/or HOF/near-HOF power types.

4. Additionally, Adolfo is the worst type of prospect: “high K,” but “low BB.” On top of this, his supposed “power” hasn’t manifested itself, but then Avi was supposed to have a good amount of in-game power as well.

 

Dan Remenowsky and Low Minors Pitching

 

Dan Remenowsky was a WELL-above average pitcher in the low minors who never amounted to anything in the high minors. Micker Adolfo struck out to a ~30% clip to opposing pitchers that are, by and large, inferior to Remenowsky. By extension, this would infer that Adolfo is MORE of a “no hoper” than Remenowsky, not less.

 

 

 

About Adolfo:

 

1. His “Power” means NOTHING if he can’t get on base. Ask Keon Barnum, Matt Davidson, and all the other “raw power” types that Laumann and KW chased for years, and then how many of them amounted to anything at all.

2. He won’t be in the lineup frequently enough to use his “Arm,” if he can’t get on base. No manager will have a black hole in his lineup, no matter how awesome that offensive black hole’s arm is in the field.

3. His “athleticism” means NOTHING if he can’t get on base. Ask Mitchell, Walker, hell, even Michael Jordan if their “athleticism” made them ballplayers or not.

 

I certainly hope I’m proven wrong on Adolfo, but he’s a 3rd year pro who has made little-to-no progress hereto fore at the dish. My ideal outcome for him would be for him to have a “career year,” then be packaged with other pieces for some REAL prospects who can actually hit.

 

So, here's something funny - I wrote one of those three articles.

 

Anyway, your hitter analysis articles are all focused on statistics. And I think you need to take any stats with a huge pile of salt at those levels, especially for a player who is notably younger than his competition. Barnum and Davidson aren't good comps anyway - Barnum failed repeatedly at levels all the way through and didn't have any of the tools Adolfo does aside from power, and Davidson actually succeeded for years until failing at AAA/MLB. And Michael Jordan? Come on.

 

If you are saying Adolfo isn't a T100 prospect or close to it, I agree. No argument. But you called him a non-prospect, which is outright silly. Give him a season or two to see if the tools translate, which they mostly haven't yet.

 

[Two-Gun Pete]

So, here's something funny - I wrote one of those three articles.

 

Oh, I know. I knew you'd appreciate me doing so, and I appreciate your work; Remenowsky was a guy I was really pulling for back then as well.

 

 

Anyway, your hitter analysis articles are all focused on statistics. And I think you need to take any stats with a huge pile of salt at those levels, especially for a player who is notably younger than his competition.

But he's also much more EXPERIENCED than his competition. You call him a "19 year old," I call him a "3rd year pro." Many, if not most of his opponents have less EXPERIENCE in the pro game than he.

 

Barnum and Davidson aren't good comps anyway - Barnum failed repeatedly at levels all the way through and didn't have any of the tools Adolfo does aside from power, and Davidson actually succeeded for years until failing at AAA/MLB. And Michael Jordan? Come on.

 

You were the one who touted his "power, arm, and athleticism." Barnum and Davidson are/were both lauded for [wait for it].... Their "Raw Power." So too is Adolfo.

 

These [and many other players] are examples of abject failure in terms of emphasizing EVERYTHING other than the HIT tool. The HIT tool is everything, and yet, this team has squandered picks and signings on other tools. To me, this explains the overarching majority of this org's failure to produce many everyday position players over the past decade.

 

You also lauded Adolfo for his athleticism. I merely picked MJ, Jared Mitchell, and Keenyn Walker as examples of athletic failures in this organization in terms of never amounting to anything. Again, this [athleticism] is an attribute that means far less to a prospect's future chances than his HIT tool.

 

 

If you are saying Adolfo isn't a T100 prospect or close to it, I agree. No argument. But you called him a non-prospect, which is outright silly. Give him a season or two to see if the tools translate, which they mostly haven't yet.

He's already had 3 seasons, and he's made little-to-no progress. Agreed that tools matter, but we should also respect the numbers. At some point, if he had a REAL chance of making it, we probably would have seen some improvement in the numbers. Alas, he hasn't, hereto fore.

[NorthSideSox72]

Oh, I know. I knew you'd appreciate me doing so, and I appreciate your work; Remenowsky was a guy I was really pulling for back then as well.

 

 

 

But he's also much more EXPERIENCED than his competition. You call him a "19 year old," I call him a "3rd year pro." Many, if not most of his opponents have less EXPERIENCE in the pro game than he.

 

 

 

You were the one who touted his "power, arm, and athleticism." Barnum and Davidson are/were both lauded for [wait for it].... Their "Raw Power." So too is Adolfo.

 

These [and many other players] are examples of abject failure in terms of emphasizing EVERYTHING other than the HIT tool. The HIT tool is everything, and yet, this team has squandered picks and signings on other tools. To me, this explains the overarching majority of this org's failure to produce many everyday position players over the past decade.

 

You also lauded Adolfo for his athleticism. I merely picked MJ, Jared Mitchell, and Keenyn Walker as examples of athletic failures in this organization in terms of never amounting to anything. Again, this [athleticism] is an attribute that means far less to a prospect's future chances than his HIT tool.

 

 

 

He's already had 3 seasons, and he's made little-to-no progress. Agreed that tools matter, but we should also respect the numbers. At some point, if he had a REAL chance of making it, we probably would have seen some improvement in the numbers. Alas, he hasn't, hereto fore.

 

I just think you are giving up on the guy far too early. 3 years, ages 17-19 after skipping DSL and not having the benefits that US prospects do, is not much. No one is saying he's a T100 guy, but he's certainly a prospect. At those levels and ages, tools should be the far-dominant angle, with numbers on the small end of importance. That balance shifts as they move up and age.

 

And I should note, I am not at all defending the Sox org in terms of hitter development. It's been very bad. Not saying otherwise.

 

Also thanks, glad you like the writing! And I do appreciate your in-depth analysis here, it took real thought and even if I disagree I love the discussion.

 

[Two-Gun Pete]

I just think you are giving up on the guy far too early. 3 years, ages 17-19 after skipping DSL and not having the benefits that US prospects do, is not much. No one is saying he's a T100 guy, but he's certainly a prospect. At those levels and ages, tools should be the far-dominant angle, with numbers on the small end of importance. That balance shifts as they move up and age.

I can disagree while being agreeable. That said, without an ability to hit/get on base, he has scant chance to utilize whatever tools he has. And thus, he has scant chance to advance successfully. If you'd like to consider him a prospect, that's OK. But the players who have/may have an MLB-caliber ability to get on base are much more compelling, IMO.

 

 

And I should note, I am not at all defending the Sox org in terms of hitter development. It's been very bad. Not saying otherwise.

Ya know, after a decade or so of watching this team utterly fail at developing position players, I started to wonder why. [And wonder why this front office didn't do anything about it.]

 

Then, the Sox's 2016 draft happened, with it's focus on OBP, and voila! Half the Top 10 prospects, just by re-focusing the scouting on the appropriate thing. I then considered [subjectively] many of the former farmhands of recent vintage that have had any success in The Bigs, and most of them had something of a hit tool [semien, Micah Johnson], or at least hit well enough for his position, such as Phegley.

 

On the other hand, for the cavalcade of abject failures of current/former Sox prospects, few, if any were noted for their HIT tool. It seemed as though they'd be lauded for "Raw Power," or "Speed," or "Athleticism," and then they'd predictably bust. Adolfo, Barnum, Mitchell, Walker, Hawkins [as a hitter] and others all fall into the "signed-for-tools-other-than-the-hit-tool" category to me. [Zangari, with his avalanche of Ks, might be placed right on the cusp of joining this group of non-hitting suspects/failed prospects, IMO.]

 

After a decade+ of watching position players fail, Collins, Call, Fisher, Tilson, hell, even Jackson Glines or anyone who can HIT are all more compelling, IMHO.

 

Also thanks, glad you like the writing! And I do appreciate your in-depth analysis here, it took real thought and even if I disagree I love the discussion.

And thank you for your work as well.

Edited November 12, 2016 by Two-Gun Pete

[Jake]

Yeah, Im comfortable calling this guy a "non-prospect" at this point. Yes, i get how young he is, but that simply does not matter.

 

Any player who strikes out @ a ~30% clip in the low minors will never ever amount to anything. This last draft (and more importantly, it's focus on OBP) should at long last show the org & it's fans what should be the most important tool of any position player, except for catchers. As Adolfo divides his time between being injured and striking out, I fail to see any chance for him to make The Show.

 

I agree that a sky-high strikeout rate is a huge cause for concern and normally to me means the player should not be promoted, but let us not forget that Kris Bryant of all people struck out at a 29% clip in AAA and just slightly less in A and AA, both at a much later age and with more high-level experience. He then struck out 31% as a MLB rookie.

 

In our system, the rare example of a player who came in the system with major strikeout problems who eventually ironed them out is Trayce Thompson.

Edited November 21, 2016 by Jake

[Two-Gun Pete]

I agree that a sky-high strikeout rate is a huge cause for concern and normally to me means the player should not be promoted, but let us not forget that Kris Bryant of all people struck out at a 29% clip in AAA and just slightly less in A and AA, both at a much later age and with more high-level experience. He then struck out 31% as a MLB rookie.

 

In our system, the rare example of a player who came in the system with major strikeout problems who eventually ironed them out is Trayce Thompson.

On Bryant, he also had/has a high walk rate, and ACTUAL, in-game power. None of the high K bums (Barnum, Adolfo, and possibly, Zangari) have a high walk rate. So really, he's nothing like Adolfo, who Ks a lot, is allergic to walks, and only shows power in batting practice.( You know, the type of player this front office has stupidly chased for years.)

 

On Thompson, I think the Sox rightly sold high on him, and his drop in Ks in 2015 looks like a statistical outlier. (He went right back to a 25% K rate in LA after his career year in 2015 with the Sox.) So, Thompson actually shows that most hitters don't actually learn to "make more contact," and/or "learn to strike out less," IMO.