White Sox Rebuild Thread

[Dick Allen]

There is one gigantic flaw in trading everybody for prospects. Prospects bust, so even if you do well, you still are going to have to fill in holes with competent players. Unlike the Cubs, they can't spend $400 million filling in those areas.

 

A couple of these guys are going to have to stick around.

[Whisox05]

http://www.csnchicago.com/chicago-white-so...etings-conclude

[Balta1701]

There is one gigantic flaw in trading everybody for prospects. Prospects bust, so even if you do well, you still are going to have to fill in holes with competent players. Unlike the Cubs, they can't spend $400 million filling in those areas.

 

A couple of these guys are going to have to stick around.

Great. Quintana is under team control for 4 more years. Eaton is under team control for 5 more years. Rodon is under control for 5 more years. Tim Anderson is under control for 6 more years. The free agent market after 2018 is FAR better than the one this year and it would be nice to have abundant resources to use to fill a couple last remaining holes then.

 

The only way this team is a playoff caliber team by 2019 is to solve the problem of having the least talent in the division soon and then giving that talent time to grow up. That means guys who are free agents before 2020 should be moved for whatever you can get, and the 2020/2021 free agent class is guys you look at the offer for and ask whether the offer makes you better in 2019.

[Chicago White Sox]

There is one gigantic flaw in trading everybody for prospects. Prospects bust, so even if you do well, you still are going to have to fill in holes with competent players. Unlike the Cubs, they can't spend $400 million filling in those areas.

 

A couple of these guys are going to have to stick around.

I'm not sure I understand your point here. Who are you suggesting stick around? It's guys like Sale, Quintana, Eaton, & Jones who will actually bring back value. If you're going to rebuild, you should definitely move them or what is the point? And there's really no reason to hold onto the guys with one or two years left like Robertson, Frazier, or Melky. And acquiring a larger sample of prospects definitely mitigates your overall bust risk.

[Jose Abreu]

There is one gigantic flaw in trading everybody for prospects. Prospects bust, so even if you do well, you still are going to have to fill in holes with competent players. Unlike the Cubs, they can't spend $400 million filling in those areas.

 

A couple of these guys are going to have to stick around.

Well if we traded Sale, Quintana, Jones, Robertson, Frazier, Cabrera, and Abreu- so basically went all out, we'd get 12-20 prospects in total. Odds are some end up as busts, but we're getting so many, we can afford it.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Well if we traded Sale, Quintana, Jones, Robertson, Frazier, Cabrera, and Abreu- so basically went all out, we'd get 12-20 prospects in total. Odds are some end up as busts, but we're getting so many, we can afford it.

 

Not to mention the prospects we already have including Rodon, Anderson, Fulmer, Burdi, Collins, Hansen, etc.

[bjm676]

Not sure what thread to put this in, but this could be significant and could potentially take the Dodgers out of the equation for Sale/Q

 

Bill Shea

‏@Bill_Shea19

I'm not plugged into the MLB trade channels, but a source who is connected to Verlander's camp told me the rumored Dodgers trade is brewing.

[Bob Sacamano]

Not sure what thread to put this in, but this could be significant and could potentially take the Dodgers out of the equation for Sale/Q

 

Bill Shea

‏@Bill_Shea19

I'm not plugged into the MLB trade channels, but a source who is connected to Verlander's camp told me the rumored Dodgers trade is brewing.

 

Oh, boy. It honestly makes sense that they could be in on him. They'll still have to give up some prospects and can also afford to pay him his contract. He should last longer in the NL as well. Makes a lot of sense slotting him behind Kershaw.

Edited November 10, 2016 by soxfan2014

[southsider2k5]

Well if we traded Sale, Quintana, Jones, Robertson, Frazier, Cabrera, and Abreu- so basically went all out, we'd get 12-20 prospects in total. Odds are some end up as busts, but we're getting so many, we can afford it.

 

The problem is we won't be able to afford to fill holes.

[Whisox05]

The problem is we won't be able to afford to fill holes.

 

Whats the difference . Cant fill the current holes. If hypothetical you trade sale to boston for Benintendi, devers, kopech, Rodriguez and swihart then Benintendi can fill outfield now, Rodriguez goes into rotation now and swihart can also fill in somewhere now. Then you have kopech and devers coming up in the next year or 2. You try to get close to mlb ready talent not guys just in rookie league or low a ball.

[iamshack]

The problem is we won't be able to afford to fill holes.

How? Because we replaced all of the current veterans making millions of dollars with guys making hundreds of thousands?

 

This is literally backassward logic. The ENTIRE reason you rebuild is to lower the costs of your roster enough so that you have the flexibility to spend on the guys you need to fill holes.

[southsider2k5]

How? Because we replaced all of the current veterans making millions of dollars with guys making hundreds of thousands?

 

This is literally backassward logic. The ENTIRE reason you rebuild is to lower the costs of your roster enough so that you have the flexibility to spend on the guys you need to fill holes.

 

You overestimate the revenues that will be left after said sell off.

[iamshack]

You overestimate the revenues that will be left after said sell off.

How much do you think they will be different than they are now?

[southsider2k5]

How much do you think they will be different than they are now?

 

I am betting on something like a 20 to 30% fall off, at least. The last time we did this we saw a 25% falloff from a much lower attendance number.

[iamshack]

I am betting on something like a 20 to 30% fall off, at least. The last time we did this we saw a 25% falloff from a much lower attendance number.

Well, while I think you are on the high end, I would anticipate the costs of a rebuilt roster to be much lower than 20-30% lower than our current payroll costs.

[bmags]

Well, while I think you are on the high end, I would anticipate the costs of a rebuilt roster to be much lower than 20-30% lower than our current payroll costs.

 

The one kind of funny thing about the rebuild is the big parts of our payroll are really hard to move. Sale/Q/Jones/Eaton barely make a dent. Melky/Robertson you aren't really selling to "rebuild", would largely be cost-cutting.

[Balta1701]

I am betting on something like a 20 to 30% fall off, at least. The last time we did this we saw a 25% falloff from a much lower attendance number.

That's being offset by about 5%+ growth in revenue shared dollars per year - those dollars are why we're still at a constant/slightly increasing payroll despite the vacant stadium.

 

Another dropoff in attendance (I don't believe would be as large as you suggest btw) would still leave the White Sox with a $110-$120 million payroll in a couple years. They would just, hopefully, have enough organizational talent to compete with that payroll level, as opposed to now where the barren organization leaves that payroll as just enough to sustain an upper 70s win team.

[iamshack]

That's being offset by about 5%+ growth in revenue shared dollars per year - those dollars are why we're still at a constant/slightly increasing payroll despite the vacant stadium.

 

Another dropoff in attendance (I don't believe would be as large as you suggest btw) would still leave the White Sox with a $110-$120 million payroll in a couple years. They would just, hopefully, have enough organizational talent to compete with that payroll level, as opposed to now where the barren organization leaves that payroll as just enough to sustain an upper 70s win team.

I think you'd see an increase in attendance as well due to some renewed excitement in the ball club. Additionally, you might be able to apply some additional funds in competitive years resulting from savings from years where you cut payroll and were non-competitive but generated surplus revenues due to revenue sharing and other streams.

[Dick Allen]

I'm not sure I understand your point here. Who are you suggesting stick around? It's guys like Sale, Quintana, Eaton, & Jones who will actually bring back value. If you're going to rebuild, you should definitely move them or what is the point? And there's really no reason to hold onto the guys with one or two years left like Robertson, Frazier, or Melky. And acquiring a larger sample of prospects definitely mitigates your overall bust risk.

My point is trading everyone who is good is foolish. The last total rebuild the Sox did was when Larry Himes was the GM. Carlton Fisk stayed. Ozzie Guillen stayed., and then they had the new park to add payroll. Trading Sale, Quintana, Eaton, Jones, all of them may wind up being pretty foolish.

 

It is fine if you expect each trade to go perfectly, but that is pretty unlikely. Eaton has 5 years left. Do you really think you will get something that turns out better?

[southsider2k5]

I think you'd see an increase in attendance as well due to some renewed excitement in the ball club. Additionally, you might be able to apply some additional funds in competitive years resulting from savings from years where you cut payroll and were non-competitive but generated surplus revenues due to revenue sharing and other streams.

 

Yeah, Sox fans aren't the show up for rebuilding types. They aren't the show up for an OK team type, heck they aren't even the show up for a winning team type.

[Bob Sacamano]

My point is trading everyone who is good is foolish. The last total rebuild the Sox did was when Larry Himes was the GM. Carlton Fisk stayed. Ozzie Guillen stayed., and then they had the new park to add payroll. Trading Sale, Quintana, Eaton, Jones, all of them may wind up being pretty foolish.

 

It is fine if you expect each trade to go perfectly, but that is pretty unlikely. Eaton has 5 years left. Do you really think you will get something that turns out better?

 

I'm basically holding Eaton and Quintana unless overwhelmed with an offer personally.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

They may hold onto most of them if they don't get what they want.

[iamshack]

Yeah, Sox fans aren't the show up for rebuilding types. They aren't the show up for an OK team type, heck they aren't even the show up for a winning team type.

You are acting like they are showing up now.

 

I disagree with you about this massive cliff you expect us to fall off of.

 

 

[iamshack]

I'm basically holding Eaton and Quintana unless overwhelmed with an offer personally.

Eaton will cry when all his friends are traded.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

My point is trading everyone who is good is foolish. The last total rebuild the Sox did was when Larry Himes was the GM. Carlton Fisk stayed. Ozzie Guillen stayed., and then they had the new park to add payroll. Trading Sale, Quintana, Eaton, Jones, all of them may wind up being pretty foolish.

 

It is fine if you expect each trade to go perfectly, but that is pretty unlikely. Eaton has 5 years left. Do you really think you will get something that turns out better?

 

 

They haven't won s*** with them and have sucked. They won't add a ton to the payroll that is needed. It's time.