Why a rebuild scares me

[Harry Chappas]

The White Sox seem to be in unprecedented territory in regard to a rebuild.

 

They have impactful players that can bring in two or three of the top minor players to the White Sox.

 

Three guys that should net at least two top 100 players

Sale (plus at least one B+ guy)

Quintana (plus a B guy)

Eaton

 

You then have add on's that could clean out a good system if packaged with those guys above but also could get a guy that would be in the White Sox top 10 if dealing with a deep team

Jones

Frazier

Abreu

Cabrera

Robertson

 

Again this is all unprecedented and looks like it is not a bad idea on the surface.....here is where the trepidation sets in

 

The cubs did it so why can't the Sox?......the cubs got lucky with a GM being fired for some reason and then taking over their operation, another GM giving them Rizzo, Arrieta figured it out, Beane lost his damn mind, Contrearas and Baez were there and the cub spent wisely on foreign players and then in free agency to finish it off. They are also developing players and have an organizational philosophy...oh and Maddon was dropped in their lap....these things fail more often then they succeed.

 

The thing that scares the crap out of me is that the White Sox cannot develop players so anyone playing below AAA this year is more likely to bust then reach their potential.

 

The White Sox cannot scout very well. This is the organization that believed Avasail Garcia could play center-field. These are also the guys that seem to have no advanced MLB scouting worth a damn. These guys felt Jimmy Rollins was the answer at SS last off-season for a team that was looking to go to the playoffs and that James Shields was worth giving up a solid SS prospect for.....after Latos lightening left the bottle.

 

Jake Peavy and Javier Vazquez were two other trades that should have added to the foundation of this team....they did not.

 

I want to be excited about watching and learning about these moves but with this organizational philosophy and Buddy Bell continuing to fail, I believe I will just see more failures.

 

I like Renteria only because he seemed to be the guy the cubs wanted to advance their team in the rebuild and they seem to have a good plan over there.

 

Maybe Getz will change things as Hostetler seems to have...we will see.....but with KW overseeing it my gut tells me they will be undersold like many trades before them and we will be left with Carlos Rodon, Tim Anderson and a whole lot of Brain Andersons.

 

 

 

 

 

[LittleHurt05]

The White Sox have made the playoffs once in the past 11 seasons, zero times in the past 8 seasons. Not rebuilding is scary too.

[knightni]

Drafting well with your #1 is a priority as well.

 

The Sox have had middling results with their top picks. (Cubs in brackets)

 

 

 

2011 was a total waste - (No #1), Walker, Soptic (Javier Baez)

 

The 2012 draft has been a bust - Hawkins, Barnum, Beck (Albert Almora Jr.)

 

2013 has been better but its still needs time to grow - Anderson, Danish, May (Kris Bryant)

 

2014 has potential also, but hasn't been impact yet. - Rodon, Adams, Frye (Kyle Schwarber)

 

2015 is still green - Fulmer, (no #2 or #3) (Ian Happ)

 

2016 is inconsequential at this point - Collins, Burdi, Hansen, Call

[Flash Tizzle]

I believe every emotion is warranted for a potential rebuild, because obviously we haven't undertaken anything close to it. Personally, I'd rather accept the risk of failure than continue on our path since 2008That's what you didn't touch on. You're scared of a rebuild because they've failed at accumulating talent through past deals (to be fair, players with FAR less value than Eaton, Abreu, Sale, Q were involved) and tge Cubs have had fortunes turn their way. I personally don't feel we're following them as much as trying something different because as an organization we're in a rut.

 

If we just continue accepting the notion of "going for it" when every metric available concerning our players and what's available via FA says it's unlikely we'll compete, why bother? Has anyone thought the worst what would happen if God forbid Sale or Q injure themselves in 2017? It'd set the team back YEARS....all for a team maybe battling for .500. They're our most valuable assets, and honestly, are worth more in trade value than they are to this team

[bmags]

I believe every emotion is warranted for a potential rebuild, because obviously we haven't undertaken anything close to it. Personally, I'd rather accept the risk of failure than continue on our path since 2008That's what you didn't touch on. You're scared of a rebuild because they've failed at accumulating talent through past deals (to be fair, players with FAR less value than Eaton, Abreu, Sale, Q were involved) and tge Cubs have had fortunes turn their way. I personally don't feel we're following them as much as trying something different because as an organization we're in a rut.

 

If we just continue accepting the notion of "going for it" when every metric available concerning our players and what's available via FA says it's unlikely we'll compete, why bother? Has anyone thought the worst what would happen if God forbid Sale or Q injure themselves in 2017? It'd set the team back YEARS....all for a team maybe battling for .500. They're our most valuable assets, and honestly, are worth more in trade value than they are to this team

 

Yes.

 

There has been discussion of "why would you trust Hahn and KW for a rebuild". That's fair. But part of their failure has been to constantly push forward with solid but shallow cores, often at 90% of their salary budget and a weak farm system with which to acquire. And they've done a decent job there - they HAVE added wins each year since 2013.

 

But perhaps the recognition that they can't get there is the beginning of them doing a good job. And hopefully the releasing of the burden to make every move succeed immediately vs. some foresight in letting small steps back for future leaps forward will unleash a new part of their brain that they were much better suited for.

 

Sox may be very bad, and may make all the wrong moves. But honestly after 4 years of under 80 wins, I've come to accept that the excitement of 78 wins vs. 63 is marginal.

 

And also - the cubs are ONE team. They succeeded. Look at the Indians.

 

They are a team with similar budget to us that has been unafraid to start over. And has had much more success quickly recovering.

 

Unlike the cubs in 2011, the white sox have huge trade chips to acquire loads of talent that is further developed. This could be all a disaster, but we'll know in 2-3 years, not 4-5.

 

Anyhoo, I quoted flash especially because he was the first person to scream from the roof tops that our farm was a detriment in 2007 and onward and I didn't believe him since we had just won a world series and all was great. Looking forward to more FT posting the next few years!

[Lillian]

Drafting well with your #1 is a priority as well.

 

The Sox have had middling results with their top picks. (Cubs in brackets)

 

 

 

2011 was a total waste - (No #1), Walker, Soptic (Javier Baez)

 

The 2012 draft has been a bust - Hawkins, Barnum, Beck (Albert Almora Jr.)

 

2013 has been better but its still needs time to grow - Anderson, Danish, May (Kris Bryant)

 

2014 has potential also, but hasn't been impact yet. - Rodon, Adams, Frye (Kyle Schwarber)

 

2015 is still green - Fulmer, (no #2 or #3) (Ian Happ)

 

2016 is inconsequential at this point - Collins, Burdi, Hansen, Call

 

Don't forget Jameson Fisher, in the 2016 class.

[southsider2k5]

The scariest thing about a rebuild is expecting an organization that has a decade long streak of not developing position players for the most part will be depending on developing position players.

[Bob Sacamano]

I'm nervous about a rebuild, but I'm ready for a change and it's worth the risk.

[TheFutureIsNear]

The franchise hasn't won a playoff series in a decade +....Seriously, how much worse can it get? Is the team losing 95 games instead of 85 really going to affect your life? Blowing it up and getting worse is unfortunately about the only way we are going to get better in the future. How many more years do you need to see the FO try to piece together a team around this core and fail? Seeing that for another year or 2 is what I'm afraid of personally.

[Harry Chappas]

The scariest thing about a rebuild is expecting an organization that has a decade long streak of not developing position players for the most part will be depending on developing position players.

 

Hopefully Getz is good at his job.

 

The thing I come back to is that the assets that they have should not require a rebuild but the fact that it does leaves me to believe that with this regime in place they are destined for failure.

 

For three years they have had the pieces in place to build a winner and they failed miserably at it so now they are going to magically get it right?

 

Giving away Tatis in the Shields deal...my god what a waste that is now....is a case where the organization failed to realize what they had in totality and sold Tatis in exchange for additional salary relief for Shields.....what a waste that whole exercise now appears. The team will always be financially hamstrung to keep it from doing what needs to be done.

 

 

 

 

 

[GreatScott82]

The only thing that scares me is letting Hahn/KW run this rebuild. However, it's a breath of fresh air in knowing they are FINALLY doing it.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Why it doesn't scare me? We've sucked since 2008.

[GreatScott82]

Why it doesn't scare me? We've sucked since 2008.

Yep. No morale victories here. KW and Hahn have failed mightily.

[Soxfest]

3 words scare me the most.......................Kenny Williams involved.

[ChiSoxFanMike]

I'm nervous about a rebuild, but I'm ready for a change and it's worth the risk.

Well said, good friend. I've already come to grips with seeing Sale in a different uniform. It is what it is. All I hope is the Sox improve from this process.

[Bob Sacamano]

Well said, good friend. I've already come to grips with seeing Sale in a different uniform. It is what it is. All I hope is the Sox improve from this process.

 

Exactly. Sucks it's come to this since he's so great but it is what it is.

[Dam8610]

I think people are being overly critical on this front. Let's address the issues:

 

1) The White Sox have a poor track record of developing position players.

What the White Sox have, in my opinion, is a history of chasing athletes instead of baseball players, and a complete inability to convert those lottery tickets. The moral of the story, to me at least, is go after baseball players, not athletes. This is a strategy the team has recently started pursuing, with excellent dividends so far in the 2016 draft class. So, if the White Sox are going to pursue big name trades, they need to continue this strategy. No 40 contact, 80 power and speed OFs, those will not develop well in the White Sox system. Instead, get more Adam Eaton and Alex Call types to go along with the headliners of these deals.

 

2) The White Sox are going to get fleeced on these trades.

I really can't see this happening. They've set their price incredibly high on Sale, and I think they will do the same with any other player they're looking to trade. You can't overstate the importance of the market in this case. Almost every asset the White Sox could trade is an asset whose supply in the free agent market is either nonexistent or extremely limited. Further, with the new playoff system in baseball, the list of sellers is extremely thin this time of year, when the best overall chance to enhance your strategy and direction as a franchise exists. This means you'll have 20+ teams looking to get better. The White Sox not being one of them gives them tremendous leverage. Add in that several of the players the White Sox have available are players that have the potential to give a team 4-7 WAR at an extremely team friendly rate, and teams should be fighting each other to get these players, meaning the return for the White Sox will only improve. Also, look at Rick Hahn's track record. The trades he has gotten the most value out of have been rebuilding type moves, like Eaton for Santiago. This, presumably, is his best negotiating ground, at least based on his track record.

 

We should also remember that in addition to whatever players the White Sox are able to get in trades, part of the built in return on trading away several of these players is playing time for players that may not have gotten a chance otherwise who could then develop into average-good ML players who could either be flipped for more prospects or used on a competitor, and the high draft picks the team will get from the decline in record. That's not to say that the White Sox shouldn't maximize their return in a heavy seller's market, but even if Sale nets (for example) Moncada, Benintendi, Devers, Rodriguez, Swihart, remember that that's still not all the Sox will be getting as a net impact of that trade.

 

3) There is a high degree of uncertainty to a rebuild, prospects fail all the time.

This is a valid concern, however, consider the alternative. What has proven certain over the last 3 years is that the White Sox have some elite, upper echelon talent, and they seem to be incapable, for whatever reason, of surrounding it with a competitive team. Blame whoever you'd like for that, but at this point, I'll take an uncertain rebuild over the certainty of the front office not doing enough to surround our elite talent with a competitive team. At some point, if one way of doing things isn't working, you have to try a different way. If that doesn't happen for the White Sox now, when will it? Further, if they wait, how much longer will that extend the rebuild process? Do you really want to watch a crappy on field product for the next decade, especially while that other team in town has incredible success? I know I don't.

[Southwest Sider]

The thing that scares the crap out of me is that the White Sox cannot develop players so anyone playing below AAA this year is more likely to bust then reach their potential.

 

I'd be careful with this assumption as of now. I will grant that the Sox have done a bad job developing position players in the last decade +, but as of very recently there are promising signs. Tim Anderson and Tyler Saladino are among those promising signs. They could just be outliers, but they could also be an indication of an improved position player development system. We have to hope for the latter.

 

The White Sox cannot scout very well. This is the organization that believed Avasail Garcia could play center-field. These are also the guys that seem to have no advanced MLB scouting worth a damn. These guys felt Jimmy Rollins was the answer at SS last off-season for a team that was looking to go to the playoffs and that James Shields was worth giving up a solid SS prospect for.....after Latos lightening left the bottle.

 

Sadly I attribute this to a going-for-it mentality without wanting to commit to big contracts. One of the reasons the Sox are in a somewhat enviable position right now is because they didn't start handing out super long term high dollar contracts. Instead, they tried (and failed) to plug holes with stopgaps and retreads and hope for 2005 to happen again. Yes, we are stuck with James Shields for the next 3 years, but there are some positives to that. He can be a guy to eat innings during the rebuild. He is most likely a good leader and someone young players can look up to and learn from. Also, maybe he rebuilds enough value where you can trade him for something. As for Avi Garcia, well for every one of him, there is an Adam Eaton. You can't be 100% right all the time. We still got excellent value out of the Peavy deal, despite Avi's failures.

 

Jake Peavy and Javier Vazquez were two other trades that should have added to the foundation of this team....they did not.

 

Honestly, those two deals were so long ago that they almost don't even count anymore, IMO. Those were purely KW deals. And actually, both of those starters were serviceable. I think most knew Vazquez had the ability to be an ace but didn't quite achieve it. Same thing with Peavy, he had a rockier transition to the AL and suffered a freak injury, and still was a serviceable pitcher despite all that. I get it, serviceable isn't great, but Peavy and Vazquez weren't the only reason that the teams they were on failed.

 

I like Renteria only because he seemed to be the guy the cubs wanted to advance their team in the rebuild and they seem to have a good plan over there.

 

I agree with you here. Maddon is a one of a kind manager. It makes complete sense to drop *any* manager for Joe Maddon and that's where my optimism comes from. Theo Epstein and his group are baseball geniuses. They placed 100% trust and faith in Rick Renteria before Joe Maddon became available. If they were happy to have him as a manager for their rebuild, then I'm happy to have him as a manager during our rebuild.

 

Maybe Getz will change things as Hostetler seems to have...we will see.....but with KW overseeing it my gut tells me they will be undersold like many trades before them and we will be left with Carlos Rodon, Tim Anderson and a whole lot of Brain Andersons.

 

I don't know about Getz either but this last statement of yours is just so negative. Brian Anderson is from a time where we had a completely different organizational philosophy regarding minor league development. KW is the President of Baseball Operations, he's not on the practice fields teaching these young players how to play. KW has much bigger fish to fry, and he has a different group of people developing players nowadays then the Brian Anderson era.

 

[Swingandalongonetoleft]

Ready for a rebuild, and aside from the lack of trust in the front office to preside over it already covered in this thread, there's one other thing for me: the frustration of knowing the Sox had guys like Sale and Quintana (along with others), and the only thing they've done with them on the roster is to take a voluminous s*** in their pants and proceed to sit down on it.

Edited November 15, 2016 by Swingandalongonetoleft

[Dick Allen]

There are plenty of reasons to be scared. Prospects bust. Here is BPs list of the top farm systems after the 2012 draft. The Sox are last. There are a lot of 4 and 5 star guys you would say "the Sox traded xxx for that?"

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article....articleid=16208

 

 

I understand the necessity, but there is no reason to over do it. Trading for prospects is a risky thing. A lot of the guys who seem to be can't miss will wind up being no better than the crap the Sox already have.

 

The Sox cannot cave. Blowing these trades, and taking whatever because "their value will never be higher" could lead to a horrendous decade or two. These trades have to be won.

[Chicago White Sox]

There are plenty of reasons to be scared. Prospects bust. Here is BPs list of the top farm systems after the 2012 draft. The Sox are last. There are a lot of 4 and 5 star guys you would say "the Sox traded xxx for that?"

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article....articleid=16208

 

 

I understand the necessity, but there is no reason to over do it. Trading for prospects is a risky thing. A lot of the guys who seem to be can't miss will wind up being no better than the crap the Sox already have.

 

The Sox cannot cave. Blowing these trades, and taking whatever because "their value will never be higher" could lead to a horrendous decade or two. These trades have to be won.

So let me get this straight, if we blow these trades, we could have a "horrendous decade or two", but if we hold them we avoid this risk? So no chance these guys get injured, their performance declines, or they simply leave once their contracts expire?

 

While rebuilding is no doubt risky, doing nothing or very little is far more risky. I don't get the allure of a half-ass rebuild, it's the lack of clear direction over the past few years that has got us in this terrible spot. We need to pick a direction and commit 100% one way or the other.

[Dick Allen]

So let me get this straight, if we blow these trades, we could have a "horrendous decade or two", but if we hold them we avoid this risk? So no chance these guys get injured, their performance declines, or they simply leave once their contracts expire?

 

While rebuilding is no doubt risky, doing nothing or very little is far more risky. I don't get the allure of a half-ass rebuild, it's the lack of clear direction over the past few years that has got us in this terrible spot. We need to pick a direction and commit 100% one way or the other.

I am using 2012 because it is 4 years down the line. If the Sox acquired the top 10 prospects in all of baseball that year for Sale, Q, Eaton, they are even worse than they are now.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/ipad/

[thedoctor]

it's entirely reasonable to be worried. i'm worried. i don't have some great confidence that they will do this the right way, but the organization has been stuck for quite some time. to me, there is at least some value in the acknowledgement that what they have been trying is not working. there's no guarantees in this or anything, but to keep trying the same thing was maddening on a level that goes beyond just playing bad baseball.

 

 

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Projection modules, scouting, access and evals have improved since then. Remember when we were saying "There's no way the Cubs can hit on all of these prospects."

 

Cubs top 10 from beginning of 2015

 

1.) Kris Bryant - MVP

2.) Addison Russell - All Star

3.) Jorge Soler - Perhaps the biggest let down and he's still potentially a decent player.

4.) Kyle Schwarber - Great hitter

5.) CJ Edwards - set up man

6.) Albert Almora - likely their CF next year and he's an absolute gazelle out there.

 

That's not even including Javy Baez or Wilson Contreras who are big parts of their future.

 

So take their starting lineup on any given day and they will have anywhere from 5-7 guys (Rizzo, Heyward, Zobrist being the exceptions) that were top ten prospects for them somewhere from 2014-2016.

 

 

Also factoring in the White Sox aren't trading Sale for 18 year olds. They're targeting near ready players. Now I know there's no guarantee they hit but I'm confident in Hahn's ability to make the right deals. He's shown that while being our GM.

[Harry Chappas]

South Sider a lot of the points you are making are that they are from times past and not pertinent to the current situation.

 

My point is that the organization as a whole is the same as it has been for all of these moves and has been since the 90's.

 

KW and Buddy Bell are there and overseeing these things.