Chicagoland Area and 2016 Presidential Race

[jasonxctf]

It's a slow day at the office. Did a quick analysis of 2012 vs 2016 of how the 7 major Chicagoland counties voted. (Cook, DuPage, Kane, Will, Lake, McHenry, Kendall) I was somewhat surprised to see the results.

 

2012- These 7 counties accounted for 63.59% of the entire vote in Illinois.

Obama= 2,087,638 (64.48% of the 7 counties)

Romney= 1,103.578 (34.08% of the 7 counties)

 

2016- These 7 counties accounted for 63.95% of the entire vote in Illinois.

Clinton= 2,248,105 (65.40% of the 7 counties)

Trump= 1,020,258 (29.68% of the 7 counties)

 

Total Vote Increase of 6.16%. Assuming 2012 was a "normal" year (and with an IL senator on the ballot??), Clinton's vote should have gone up to 2,216,236. Trump's should have gone up to 1,171,558 based upon a proportionate share of the increased voters.

 

So in net, 151,300 typical Trump voters, voted either for Clinton or a 3rd party candidate in these 7 counties. That's approx 13% of his suspected voters (1 in 8)

 

Johnson/Stein got 45,277 votes in 2012 versus 168,825 votes in 2016 in these 7 counties.

 

Johnson's best counties were 5.1% in McHenry and 5.0% in Kendall. (the only 2 counties Trump won of the 7)

Stein was between 1.3-1.5% in all 7 counties.