SOURCE: 2 horse race between Dodgers and Astros

[tray]

The Sox value Abreu because of the kind or person and the kind of teammate he has been, and Abreu, on the other hand, appreciates what the the Sox have done for him and wants to remain with this organization (and he has said so on more than one occasion). Because of that, I don't see Abreu being traded unless Boston blows us away with a package so that they can anoint Abreu as the successor to Big Papi.

 

 

[SoxAce]

Why wouldn't he fit at 3B? Long term, that is his best value.

 

Same. I expect his defense will improve significantly there. The defensive metrics loved his range and arm. Just errors cost his overall value which comes with experience.

Edited November 25, 2016 by SoxAce

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Why wouldn't he fit at 3B? Long term, that is his best value.

 

I could agree with that.

[Chicago White Sox]

Why wouldn't he fit at 3B? Long term, that is his best value.

If 3B is his better position, then I'm totally cool with that. All I was trying to get at is that guys like Saladino & Sanchez are not big enough prospects to have an any impact on the decision.

[TheFutureIsNear]

i dont think Abreu is gonna get a huge raise, I just think Napoli isnt gonna be getting a big contract. Teams get sketchy when guys cross that 35 year threshold, and Napoli isnt exactly a sure thing nor is he a guy who you can put out on the field very much(if at all anymore)

 

And trading for Abreu doesnt tell me that you are saving a lot of money over signing Napoli if that is the Astros goal.

 

I think Napoli gets same contract as Morales, 3/$33M....maybe the 3rd year isn't guaranteed and it's a vesting option or something along those lines. So it could be 3/33 for Napoli or 3/42(ish) for Abreu. There's a pretty massive value difference between those 2 players at similar contracts so the inclusion of Abreu (or even Frazier) should be pretty damn appealing to the Astros. So no $ saved but a better player at not much of a different rate. Abreu + Sale might actually be a bit ambitious in terms of what the Astros are willing to give up. Frazier makes a whole lot of sense for them to me tho, 1 year deal with QO possibility after the season and shouldn't cost them too much more in terms of prospects.

[KMule2545]

Bregman is extremely versatile. Saladino and Sanchez can both play anywhere in the IF. You guys are arguing apples and oranges here. Why do versatile players need to have a set position, especially in this day and age? Bregman will hit anywhere you put him and Saladino will defend anywhere you put him.

[caulfield12]

Theoretically because moving guys like Beckham, Viciedo and Semien didn't work out well for the Sox. Similar arguments have been made about Saladino, while others want to try him in the outfield to increase his versatility (well, at least until the scope of his injuries became apparent.)

 

Obviously, the Cubs move Zobrist, Baez, Bryant, Contreras and Schwarber a lot...less of a problem because of talent level.

Edited November 26, 2016 by caulfield12

[SCCWS]

Napoli is a free agent, his next deal will likely earn him more than Abreu.

 

 

Napoli is 35 and he made 7 Mil this year on a 1 year deal. My guess is he will probably sign another 1 or even a 2 year at 5 or 6 per year.

[Chicago White Sox]

Napoli is 35 and he made 7 Mil this year on a 1 year deal. My guess is he will probably sign another 1 or even a 2 year at 5 or 6 per year.

For what it's worth, mlbtraderumors has Napoli getting a 2/$28M deal. While I think that's a bit high, I think it's much closer to reality than your estimate.

[KMule2545]

Theoretically because moving guys like Beckham, Viciedo and Semien didn't work out well for the Sox. Similar arguments have been made about Saladino, while others want to try him in the outfield to increase his versatility (well, at least until the scope of his injuries became apparent.)

 

Obviously, the Cubs move Zobrist, Baez, Bryant, Contreras and Schwarber a lot...less of a problem because of talent level.

 

Going off of that theory Bregman will already bust with us no matter what, since he'll be moving off of his natural SS any way you spin it.

 

Beckham was rushed to the Majors about a year early, like all Sox prospects have been the past decade. He also killed it at 3B in his rookie season (moving off his natural SS). Viciedo was an absolute butcher at his natural position (3B) and a 2 tool guy (power bat and power arm). Also, none of the former Sox you mentioned were shuffled in different roles consistently as I'm suggesting Bregman and Saladino should be. They played one position one year, another the next year - not 2B Tuesday then 3B on Wednesday and LF on Friday. IIRC, Saladino was one of the league leaders in DRS at 3B (natural SS) in 2015 in not a full season and looked damn good defensively everywhere in 2016. Just trying to stoke the fire here, not be an a-hole.

 

Can anyone list Saladino's injury history? I only know of his Tommy John in the minors and back (?) injury at the end of 2016.

Edited November 26, 2016 by Ro Da Don

[GreenSox]

Bregman is extremely versatile. Saladino and Sanchez can both play anywhere in the IF. You guys are arguing apples and oranges here. Why do versatile players need to have a set position, especially in this day and age? Bregman will hit anywhere you put him and Saladino will defend anywhere you put him.

Agree

[caulfield12]

http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post?id=15060

 

Looks like Greinke will be on the market too, joining Gray and Archer as options.

[hi8is]

http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post?id=15060

 

Looks like Greinke will be on the market too, joining Gray and Archer as options.

The "expensive as f***" option.

[caulfield12]

Going off of that theory Bregman will already bust with us no matter what, since he'll be moving off of his natural SS any way you spin it.

 

Beckham was rushed to the Majors about a year early, like all Sox prospects have been the past decade. He also killed it at 3B in his rookie season (moving off his natural SS). Viciedo was an absolute butcher at his natural position (3B) and a 2 tool guy (power bat and power arm). Also, none of the former Sox you mentioned were shuffled in different roles consistently as I'm suggesting Bregman and Saladino should be. They played one position one year, another the next year - not 2B Tuesday then 3B on Wednesday and LF on Friday. IIRC, Saladino was one of the league leaders in DRS at 3B (natural SS) in 2015 in not a full season and looked damn good defensively everywhere in 2016. Just trying to stoke the fire here, not be an a-hole.

 

Can anyone list Saladino's injury history? I only know of his Tommy John in the minors and back (?) injury at the end of 2016.

 

Semien is the closest example in terms of the dangers of deciding to move someone off SS prematurely. Obviously, he lacked the collegiate pedigree of Beckham or Bregman, though.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post?id=15060

 

Looks like Greinke will be on the market too, joining Gray and Archer as options.

 

But in a totally different category. I would think any Grienke trade would be mostly a salary dump. He put up a 2.2 WAR last year and will make $34.4M each year for the next 5 seasons. Whatever team requesting him would probably want $50M or so back, and even then, he's a $24M a year player. He would almost have to be swapped for another high paid player. I would have thought maybe some swap for Albert Pujols, but Dbacks don't need a 1B or an even older player. No idea how they move him without kicking in crazy amounts of money.

[caulfield12]

Yeah, that's only for the big market teams to save their prospects and hope for a bounceback. Not unlike the Verlander situation, but those two guys have clearly changed places in the last 12 months. Nobody would touch Verlander even if they willing to send 25% of his contract the other way.

 

On the positive side, Gray and Archer are both assets that will be worth even more prospects with more typical stat linesgoing into midseason.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

LOL Greinke on the market. Good luck with all that.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Yeah, that's only for the big market teams to save their prospects and hope for a bounceback. Not unlike the Verlander situation, but those two guys have clearly changed places in the last 12 months. Nobody would touch Verlander even if they willing to send 25% of his contract the other way.

 

On the positive side, Gray and Archer are both assets that will be worth even more prospects with more typical stat linesgoing into midseason.

 

True about Verlander, but even still, he had a 2.9 WAR and made $20M in his clunker season. Grienke had a 2.2 WAR and made $34M. Both had 5 years left, but Verlander set to make $30M less over those 5 years, and will end his contract at age 36, also while pitching in the AL. Grienke will be 38, and in the NL. Both bad and hard to move contracts, but I think Zack's is tougher.

[SoxAce]

LOL Greinke on the market. Good luck with all that.

 

For other teams selling pitching, they have to wait until Sale is moved since he's by far the best asset.

[caulfield12]

True about Verlander, but even still, he had a 2.9 WAR and made $20M in his clunker season. Grienke had a 2.2 WAR and made $34M. Both had 5 years left, but Verlander set to make $30M less over those 5 years, and will end his contract at age 36, also while pitching in the AL. Grienke will be 38, and in the NL. Both bad and hard to move contracts, but I think Zack's is tougher.

 

Except Greinke had shown the ability to be successful without throwing in the upper 90s.

 

This was the first year Verlander learned how to pitch with less than an optimal arsenal. Greinke has always been more comfortable in the low to mid 90's, with an occasional 96-97 mixed in.

 

Plus, playing on a team that was out of the playoff race for nearly the entire season. If I had excess money and prospects as a GM, you'd be crazy not to at least consider those two guys.

 

Not to mention the looming diminished rate of return on David Price. After presiding over the Tigers' era of bloated contract extensions, and the success rate on the Price for Smyly, Cabrera to Marlins to Sabathia to the Brewers, you can see equally compelling reasons to go in either direction.

 

And surely Epstein's biggest regret in Boston was all those free agent contracts to guys like Dice K, Carl Crawford, JD Drew, Josh Beckett, Lackey, etc.

[PolishPrince34]

Except Greinke had shown the ability to be successful without throwing in the upper 90s.

 

This was the first year Verlander learned how to pitch with less than an optimal arsenal. Greinke has always been more comfortable in the low to mid 90's, with an occasional 96-97 mixed in.

 

Plus, playing on a team that was out of the playoff race for nearly the entire season. If I had excess money and prospects as a GM, you'd be crazy not to at least consider those two guys.

 

Not to mention the looming diminished rate of return on David Price. After presiding over the Tigers' era of bloated contract extensions, and the success rate on the Price for Smyly, Cabrera to Marlins to Sabathia to the Brewers, you can see equally compelling reasons to go in either direction.

 

And surely Epstein's biggest regret in Boston was all those free agent contracts to guys like Dice K, Carl Crawford, JD Drew, Josh Beckett, Lackey, etc.

Don't forget Renteria, Julio Lugo, Varitek 2nd contract, Jenks, and Matt Clement. If there is a flaw to Epstein's game plan it is free agency. Also include Heyward and Edwin Jackson. Epstein always surrounds himself with an incredible support staff. His bread and butter is the draft, player development, and transactions trough trades and waiver pick ups. Yes he has a nice free agent pick up here and there such Zobrist, Mueller, Lester, and Beltre. But probably has had more misses with his long term contracts. I'll probably get bashed for this, but it's true dipping in free agency has been a hiccup to his game.

Edited November 26, 2016 by PolishPrince34

[GreenSox]

Don't forget Renteria, Julio Lugo, Varitek 2nd contract, Jenks, and Matt Clement. If there is a flaw to Epstein's game plan it is free agency. Also include Heyward and Edwin Jackson. Epstein always surrounds himself with an incredible support staff. His bread and butter is the draft, player development, and transactions trough trades and waiver pick ups. Yes he has a nice free agent pick up here and there such Zobrist, Mueller, Lester, and Beltre. But probably has had more misses with his long term contracts. I'll probably get bashed for this, but it's true dipping in free agency has been a hiccup to his game.

He's been fortunate to work with orgs that can absorb some spending miscues and to allow him to hire a talented and deep staff. And they don't win the WS without Lester and Zobrist.

And he's also been smart as to who to let go to free agency....Samardzija. He correctly evaluated him as not an ace. The dichotomy between Epstein and Hahn re Samardzija really encapsulates the difference between the two front offices.

Epstein has also been impeccable in his trades and evaluation of his own players. A strong staff helps. Hahn could use one of those.

[Dick Allen]

He's been fortunate to work with orgs that can absorb some spending miscues and to allow him to hire a talented and deep staff. And they don't win the WS without Lester and Zobrist.

And he's also been smart as to who to let go to free agency....Samardzija. He correctly evaluated him as not an ace. The dichotomy between Epstein and Hahn re Samardzija really encapsulates the difference between the two front offices.

Epstein has also been impeccable in his trades and evaluation of his own players. A strong staff helps. Hahn could use one of those.

He offered Samrdzija $85 million. Perhaps not ace money in today's environment, but more than Anything Hahn may have offered. And he wasn't supposed to be an ace on the White Sox, they already had one, so your point appears way off.

He signed for $90 million with the Giants, so Theo was pretty close, closer than Hahn.

 

http://www.sbnation.com/2014/6/18/5822630/...fer-rumors-cubs

Edited November 26, 2016 by Dick Allen

[SCCWS]

Agree

 

So far with still a limited sample size, Saladino has been league average at 3B but above average at 2nd.

 

[GreenSox]

He offered Samrdzija $85 million. Perhaps not ace money in today's environment, but more than Anything Hahn may have offered. And he wasn't supposed to be an ace on the White Sox, they already had one, so your point appears way off.

He signed for $90 million with the Giants, so Theo was pretty close, closer than Hahn.

 

http://www.sbnation.com/2014/6/18/5822630/...fer-rumors-cubs

Epstein offered Samardzija about 1/2 of what he offered Lester.

If he wasn't supposed to be a top of the rotation starter (obviously behind Sale, but still a front end guy), why did they trade for 1 year of his services?

The Giants and Cubs accurately saw him as a middle guy (and to be fair, that may be generous).

Samardzija was doing the best pitching of his career when Theo moved him....he took advantage and sold high. Hahn?

Edited November 26, 2016 by GreenSox