Where Chris Sale’s Numbers Fell Off a Cliff

[maxjusttyped]

This past season, the White Sox were the worst framing team in baseball. It wasn’t even particularly close, and I wrote about this toward the end of June. It never got a whole lot better from there. When I calculated my strike-zone stat to find expected strikes, I found that Chris Sale got almost 40 fewer strikes this year than expected. On average, that would’ve cost him roughly six runs.

 

It’s bad enough that a pitcher would’ve been so hurt, but back in 2015, the White Sox were one of the best framing teams in baseball. When the team non-tendered Tyler Flowers, Sale was sufficiently upset that he called his own general manager for an explanation. Sale had loved pitching to Flowers, and he didn’t know why he was going away. Like anyone, Sale knows it’s all business, but he at least had a sense then that, come 2016, he wouldn’t be in such good hands.

 

We find Sale at -17 runs. It’s the biggest drop for anybody, the equivalent of almost two wins. If you eyeball the table, you notice a definite White Sox theme, and, yeah. Things were bad. Sale felt it the most. In 2015, out of everyone, only Greinke got greater framing support. In 2016, out of everyone, only Finnegan got lesser framing support. Sale went from second-highest to second-lowest, and though overall that might just feel fair, it’s a hell of an abrupt way for circumstances to even out. Sale was helped, and then he was hurt. That’s balance, but it still means that 2016 would’ve been aggravating.

 

Just by looking at the table in this article, poor pitching framing cost Sale, Q, and Rodon 37 runs. Even Danks shows up as one of the pitchers who was hurt most by poor pitching framing and he only made 4 starts this season.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/where-chris...ll-off-a-cliff/

[hi8is]

Berry interesting - thanks for the post.

[PolishPrince34]

Another example of why we need an overhaul with our pro scouting department. Avila, Navarro, Jackson, Latos, Rollins, Lawrie, Shields, and goes on and on over the recent years

[hi8is]

Another example of why we need an overhaul with our pro scouting department. Avila, Navarro, Jackson, Latos, Rollins, Lawrie, Shields, and goes on and on over the recent years

They should have hired me in 2011.

[Chicago White Sox]

Another example of why we need an overhaul with our pro scouting department. Avila, Navarro, Jackson, Latos, Rollins, Lawrie, Shields, and goes on and on over the recent years

I'm pretty sure I heard Hahn or someone in the front office imply that they realized the pro scouting was an issue and changes would be made.

[oldsox]

How does anyone come up with a stat for pitch framing?

[OmarComing25]

This thread seems like a good place to put this article too.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-al-sta...act-management/

 

Snippets on our guys:

 

Jose Quintana silently rolls on as the most anonymous above-average starting pitcher in either league. His main strength is an utter lack of weaknesses, even small ones. His most identifiable contact-management strength is his propensity to induce can-of-corn, 75-90 mph fly balls. His average fly-ball-velocity allowed was over one STD less than average, and his Unadjusted and Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Scores were 63 and 62, respectively. That adjusted mark was the very best among AL qualifiers.

 

I’d place Chris Sale first. While he falls just behind Kluber in Adjusted Contact Score and K rate, he’s better in BB rate and pitched more innings, accumulating fractionally more value than Kluber. His average authority allowed was fairly close to average across the board, and his BIP mix lacks glaring strengths or weaknesses. Like his teammate Quintana, the absence of weaknesses is a strength in itself. His K-BB spread is the best in the AL, and that coupled with sound if unspectacular contact management skill is the mark of excellence.

 

Carlos Rodon may have turned the corner in 2016. Hitters batted an outlandish .329 AVG-.361 SLG on grounders against the young lefty, for a 190 Unadjusted Grounder Contact Score. Take that air out of his overall numbers and his overall Contact Score dips from an unadjusted 115 to an adjusted 95, and his “Tru” ERA- slots in at 86, among the top 10 ERA qualifiers in the AL. He throttled fly-ball authority, an asset in his cozy home park, and has no glaring BIP mix vulnerabilities.

 

You could make a decent case that Navarro/Avila's framing cost Sale the Cy Young. But I think the biggest victim was Rodon. He not only got screwed by poor framing/umping (22.7% of his pitches in the zone were called balls), but he also got pretty unlucky on groundballs and flyballs this year. He allowed an above-average HR/FB rate in 2016 even though his average exit velocity on flyballs (87.4 MPH) was the second lowest in the AL to Sabathia and only Hendricks and Carlos Martinez were lower in the NL. If it weren't for Navarro and some bad luck on homeruns, I really think we'd be talking about how much of a step forward Rodon took this year. He increased his strikeout rate, considerably dropped his walk rate (both of which are even more impressive considering the much smaller strike zone he was dealing with compared to 2015), and showed a Quintana-like ability to throttle contact in the air, which is especially helpful in our home park.

Edited November 24, 2016 by OmarComing25

[KMule2545]

This thread seems like a good place to put this article too.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-al-sta...act-management/

 

Snippets on our guys:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You could make a decent case that Navarro/Avila's framing cost Sale the Cy Young. But I think the biggest victim was Rodon. He not only got screwed by poor framing/umping (22.7% of his pitches in the zone were called balls), but he also got pretty unlucky on groundballs and flyballs this year. He allowed an above-average HR/FB rate in 2016 even though his average exit velocity on flyballs (87.4 MPH) was the second lowest in the AL to Sabathia and only Hendricks and Carlos Martinez were lower in the NL. If it weren't for Navarro and some bad luck on homeruns, I really think we'd be talking about how much of a step forward Rodon took this year. He increased his strikeout rate, considerably dropped his walk rate, and showed a Quintana-like ability to throttle contact in the air, which is especially helpful in our home park.

 

Rodon is gonna bust out into a top-tier pitcher in 2017. You heard it here first.

[ron883]

Rodon is gonna bust out into a top-tier pitcher in 2017. You heard it here first.

Bryce Harper is going to have a bounce back season. You heard it here first

[Ducksnort]

Bryce Harper is going to have a bounce back season. You heard it here first

Paul Konerko will be the 2018 White Sox manager...you heard it here first

[Eminor3rd]

Manny Machado is going to be the 2019 AL MVP... you heard it hear first.

[Kyyle23]

the sun will rise tomorrow, you heard it hear first