Otani to be posted in 2017 Offseason

[Dick Allen]

Yeah I guess this is a big risk. Watching everyone else sign guys and then Otani doesn't even come over.

And even if the post him, he might think twice and realize it would be better to wait. Then you have no July 2nd signees and have scraps left if anything. Too risky for the Sox IMO.

[Bob Sacamano]

And even if the post him, he might think twice and realize it would be better to wait. Then you have no July 2nd signees and have scraps left if anything. Too risky for the Sox IMO.

 

Yep. Too risky for a team that should be hording young talent

Edited December 14, 2016 by soxfan2014

[southsider2k5]

Agreed. It would be difficult for the MLB to cry collusion if he was able to sign an extension after playing for one full season. If that's legal, it becomes very plausible for Otani to "bet on himself" by taking his $9m to come over and prove himself, having made a handshake agreement to discuss a 6-figure extension in that first offseason. Given his age, he would stand to make a ton of money even if he's merely above-average, even if it's still less than he'd have made at the peak of his hype. Viewed through that lense, the rules are then really only a significant piece of negotiating leverage for the signing team.

 

Also, I wonder what the restrictions are on that ~$9m rookie bonus contract. For example, could they still work in a "you cannot send me to arbitration" clause or something similar that would reduce the team's level of control?

 

If you work it out right, he could set himself up for a pretty decent payday. Remember, you can pay out the bonus over a period of three years. If you divide the bonus by three and put it over the first three years, and add the salary to that, he can bring home about $3 million in the early years. One of the features I remember of the early extensions is that they move up a little bit of the money so that instead of half a million a year, they make around a million by the third year. Then hit the arb years with an increasing rate that matches the upper end of players in those years (5/10/15m?), and tack on 2 or 3 of the free agency years at a big number, say $25 million or more, plus a large buyout for those years ($5m? $10m?), you could put together a pretty defensible deal for Otani to get some money guaranteed, and the team to lock into a set rate.

[Dick Allen]

If you work it out right, he could set himself up for a pretty decent payday. Remember, you can pay out the bonus over a period of three years. If you divide the bonus by three and put it over the first three years, and add the salary to that, he can bring home about $3 million in the early years. One of the features I remember of the early extensions is that they move up a little bit of the money so that instead of half a million a year, they make around a million by the third year. Then hit the arb years with an increasing rate that matches the upper end of players in those years (5/10/15m?), and tack on 2 or 3 of the free agency years at a big number, say $25 million or more, plus a large buyout for those years ($5m? $10m?), you could put together a pretty defensible deal for Otani to get some money guaranteed, and the team to lock into a set rate.

If he truly is a $200 million player, he is far better off waiting an additional 2 years and not messing with the other stuff. I'm sure he will be paid a pretty good wage in Japan those years.

[southsider2k5]

If he truly is a $200 million player, he is far better off waiting an additional 2 years and not messing with the other stuff. I'm sure he will be paid a pretty good wage in Japan those years.

 

Last season in Japan he made 100m Yen, which translates to just short of a million dollars when you factor in the exchange rate.

[harfman77]

Isn't the idea that teams will use some loophole - sign him for a modest amount, agree to DFA him after 1 year (or whatever it's called when you let a player go early in career, and he agrees to sign back for some predetermined massive amount?

 

He would have to pass through waivers, that would never happen.

[harfman77]

MLB wouldn't allow it. He'd have to wait at least until his arbitration years.

 

With him especially they are going to be extremely wary of those sorts of tactics.

 

They couldn't stop it. Jonathan Singleton is a precedent where MLB allowed an extension before he ever hit the majors, so MLB would have a hard time doing anything about it given that.

 

He is going to be a super two player, so if he signs an extension after the first season, a team is essentially only buying one pre-arb year and his remaining years of control for a controlled price.

[harfman77]

If he truly is a $200 million player, he is far better off waiting an additional 2 years and not messing with the other stuff. I'm sure he will be paid a pretty good wage in Japan those years.

 

Thats assuming that the Japanese team will let him out of his contract after two years. If he has to sign an extension in Japan to bridge the seasons until he is 25, odds are his Japanese team is going to hold out for a longer term which would mean he might not be able to come over until he is older, meaning he would likely only get two MLB contracts instead of three if he comes over next year and is a FA at 28.

 

If he stays or comes over, he likely hits FA at about the same time. If he comes earlier he develops a track record and gets a bunch of marketing and exposure here in addition to what he will still reap in Japan.

 

 

[Quin]

 

Jesus.

[Dick Allen]

Thats assuming that the Japanese team will let him out of his contract after two years. If he has to sign an extension in Japan to bridge the seasons until he is 25, odds are his Japanese team is going to hold out for a longer term which would mean he might not be able to come over until he is older, meaning he would likely only get two MLB contracts instead of three if he comes over next year and is a FA at 28.

 

If he stays or comes over, he likely hits FA at about the same time. If he comes earlier he develops a track record and gets a bunch of marketing and exposure here in addition to what he will still reap in Japan.

So they would rather not have him at all than have him another 2 seasons? That is hard to believe.

[BlackSox13]

 

Jesus.

The definition of "Moon Shot " has officially been redefined.

[caulfield12]

So many Japanese phenom/prodigy pitchers (Dice K being the most recent bust) have struggled in America after being overhyped that I would think the Japanese Baseball Federation would want to push for him to come to the States at a time when he will have the best opportunity for success.

 

Other than Darvish, who started out great but has struggled with injuries, there just hasn't been many examples where you could say "that contract was a bargain."

 

The only ones I can think of are Iwakuma with the M's, and their closer about a decade ago (the name escapes me at the moment, Kaz Sasaki?).

Edited December 15, 2016 by caulfield12

[chitownsportsfan]

Damn, this guy's swing looks like Ichiro's. I really like the way he keeps his hands loose and away from his body and yet has a quick cocking mechanism and obviously a devastating lower body turn.

[Balta1701]

So many Japanese phenom/prodigy pitchers (Dice K being the most recent bust) have struggled in America after being overhyped that I would think the Japanese Baseball Federation would want to push for him to come to the States at a time when he will have the best opportunity for success.

 

Other than Darvish, who started out great but has struggled with injuries, there just hasn't been many examples where you could say "that contract was a bargain."

 

The only ones I can think of are Iwakuma with the M's, and their closer about a decade ago (the name escapes me at the moment).

 

 

Damn, this guy's swing looks like Ichiro's. I really like the way he keeps his hands loose and away from his body and yet has a quick cocking mechanism and obviously a devastating lower body turn.

So is he a pitcher or a hitter?

[Rowand44]

So is he a pitcher or a hitter?

Both.

[caulfield12]

So is he a pitcher or a hitter?

 

Brooks Kieschnick Heavy!

We had Sergio Santos, and Jason Dellaero and Brian Anderson both tried it.

 

Someone with that type of talent, maybe it's better for him to pursue a pitching career and then switch if something goes wrong (see Rick Ankiel).

[BlackSox13]

This guy would be such a good fit for the Giants or Dodgers. Two west coast teams that keep him closest to Japan and play in a league where he can pitch and swing the stick.

 

Early guess is he goes to the Dodgers.

[Southwest Sider]

This guy would be such a good fit for the Giants or Dodgers. Two west coast teams that keep him closest to Japan and play in a league where he can pitch and swing the stick.

 

Early guess is he goes to the Dodgers.

 

That would disgust me. The Dodgers are the new Evil Empire, IMO, and I'd be very upset if they snagged a talent like this to pile onto their already massive talent pool.

[BlackSox13]

That would disgust me. The Dodgers are the new Evil Empire, IMO, and I'd be very upset if they snagged a talent like this to pile onto their already massive talent pool.

I hear ya and I wouldn't like it either but they have the money, the ties to Japan and are in a good location. I'd rather see him go to SF but I'd bet the Dodgers find a way to make it happen.

 

 

[Con te Giolito]

This guy would be such a good fit for the Giants or Dodgers. Two west coast teams that keep him closest to Japan and play in a league where he can pitch and swing the stick.

 

Early guess is he goes to the Dodgers.

Dodgers are in the penalty, they can only offer $300k. If he comes out in 2017-18 they wont be able to sign him.

[BlackSox13]

Dodgers are in the penalty, they can only offer $300k. If he comes out in 2017-18 they wont be able to sign him.

Must have missed that, thanks for pointing it out.