Red Sox acquire Chris Sale, White Sox get Moncada+

[Dick Allen]

Unless there is solid intel on exactly what was available and what was possibly turned down, there really isn't much of an argument unless you would be just fine having Sale in Glendale, and Moncada, Basabe, Kopech and Diaz still in Florida.

 

I liked this trade just from Moncada alone. I never thought he would be available. Over $60 million invested and it wasn't like he washed out.

 

I didn't like the Eaton trade, mainly because Eaton is signed for 5 years cheaply, and I'm not sold on Giolito struggling like James Shields last season being totally on some messed up mechanics. This may seem weird or stupid, but the fact that he still was pretty good in AAA indicates to me the issue wasn't mechanics. It could be a 21 year old with his first taste of the big leagues, but I actually would feel better about mechanics being an issue if he had been torched a bit in the minors.

 

Some are happy the White Sox haven't traded Q yet. Others think the time to trade him has passed and the offers will never be better than they were. Either could be right. We don't know the offers. Besides, these are all prospects. Throw ins have outperformed the headliners many times.

[Leonard Zelig]

Uh...the Red Sox did before the trade. The Nationals before the Eaton deal as well, maybe the Dodgers, Brewers, Padres, Braves, and Yankees too.

 

My point isn't that Hahn got robbed in this trade. Moncada and Kopech at the front end were great gets. I'm simply saying he probably could've gotten one more impact piece had he been a little more persistent in the negotiations.

 

Were any of the other teams, who maybe did, ever shown to have interest in Sale? So if Boston isn't willing, that leaves Washington, but then who knows what happens with Eaton? Some people are so hung up on rankings of prospects, which ultimately do not matter, their performance does.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Uh...the Red Sox did before the trade. The Nationals before the Eaton deal as well, maybe the Dodgers, Brewers, Padres, Braves, and Yankees too.

 

My point isn't that Hahn got robbed in this trade. Moncada and Kopech at the front end were great gets. I'm simply saying he probably could've gotten one more impact piece had he been a little more persistent in the negotiations.

 

 

Mike, I'm sorry but that's absurd. Rick Hahn is a pretty shrewd negotiator. He got what they wanted in the deal. Groome was the best pitcher in last year's draft. He's a top 50 guy. They weren't getting a top 3 prospect, a soon to be top 20 pitching prospect, and another pitching prospect that could be top 20 by end of this season. Asking for Groome as well is crazy. He's not some throw in.

[steveno89]

Uh...the Red Sox did before the trade. The Nationals before the Eaton deal as well, maybe the Dodgers, Brewers, Padres, Braves, and Yankees too.

 

My point isn't that Hahn got robbed in this trade. Moncada and Kopech at the front end were great gets. I'm simply saying he probably could've gotten one more impact piece had he been a little more persistent in the negotiations.

 

Basabe is a solid prospect in his own right

 

Luis Alexander Basabe - 20 years old

 

Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 55 | Run: 60 | Arm: 60 | Field: 55 | Overall: 50

 

If the hit tool can develop any further we could be looking at a starting caliber center fielder

 

You have to face it that Boston was not going to include another top 15 organizational prospect after Moncada, Kopech and Basabe

 

Diaz is a decent lottery ticket with a big fastball. If he develops into a serviceable middle reliever that would be great

[BlackSox13]

Unless there is solid intel on exactly what was available and what was possibly turned down, there really isn't much of an argument unless you would be just fine having Sale in Glendale, and Moncada, Basabe, Kopech and Diaz still in Florida.

 

I liked this trade just from Moncada alone. I never thought he would be available. Over $60 million invested and it wasn't like he washed out.

I didn't like the Eaton trade, mainly because Eaton is signed for 5 years cheaply, and I'm not sold on Giolito struggling like James Shields last season being totally on some messed up mechanics. This may seem weird or stupid, but the fact that he still was pretty good in AAA indicates to me the issue wasn't mechanics. It could be a 21 year old with his first taste of the big leagues, but I actually would feel better about mechanics being an issue if he had been torched a bit in the minors.

 

Some are happy the White Sox haven't traded Q yet. Others think the time to trade him has passed and the offers will never be better than they were. Either could be right. We don't know the offers. Besides, these are all prospects. Throw ins have outperformed the headliners many times.

This is the hidden excess value in Moncada that I think some tend to forget. Boston ate 62M between the contract, bonus and penalties to sign Moncada. You can bet DD pointed that out to Hahn during negotiations. Imo, Moncada's talent and 62M invested arguably give him the value of two top fifty prospects.

Edited March 8, 2017 by BlackSox13

[steveno89]

This is the hidden excess value in Moncada that I think some tend to forget. Boston ate 62M between the contract, bonus and penalties to sign Moncada. You can bet DD pointed that out to Hahn during negotiations. Imo, Moncada's talent and 62M invested arguably give him the value of two top fifty prospects.

 

There is a big bvalue gap between a "55" grade prospect and a "65" grade prospect like Moncada

 

Moncada's ceiling is that of a superstar

[ChiSoxFanMike]

That's just it though. Not every team wants to deal away that much. This is likely the best offer they received. All we heard was reluctance to part with guys from the Yankees and Braves side (doubt either interest was sincere enough). Dodgers, Brewers and Padres were never connected. Nationals are moot since we received 2 of them the next day. That leaves only Red Sox. Red Sox don't have to pay 3 top 50 guys if the best offer for Sale (their's) only includes 2.

I guess. The Red Sox must have not been compelled to put a third blue chip guy on the table if they knew their offer was already the best. It's just annoying. I like Basabe's potential but Diaz doesn't do much for me. He just seems like another bullpen arm. Even a guy like Travis or Dalbec in place of him would've made the deal much better.

[steveno89]

I guess. The Red Sox must have not been compelled to put a third blue chip guy on the table if they knew their offer was already the best. It's just annoying. I like Basabe's potential but Diaz doesn't do much for me. He just seems like another bullpen arm. Even a guy like Travis or Dalbec in place of him would've made the deal much better.

 

Did you know Diaz did not allow a single earned run over his last 22.2 innings pitched in the minors?

 

He was rock solid in relief to close out the season and showed

 

22.2 ip

 

14 hits

 

11 bb

 

31 k's

 

He seems to have really turned a corner and improving. Sox scouts undoubtedly noticed this and wanted him to be included in the Sale deal.

[ChiSoxFanMike]

Did you know Diaz did not allow a single earned run over his last 22.2 innings pitched in the minors?

 

He was rock solid in relief to close out the season and showed

 

22.2 ip

 

14 hits

 

11 bb

 

31 k's

 

He seems to have really turned a corner and improving. Sox scouts undoubtedly noticed this and wanted him to be included in the Sale deal.

Unless the Sox think Diaz can become a dominant set up man or closer (if Burdi falters), I would've asked for another bat in place of him...but maybe that's just me.

[BlackSox13]

Unless the Sox think Diaz can become a dominant set up man or closer (if Burdi falters), I would've asked for another bat in place of him...but maybe that's just me.

I like Diaz as a potential back of the pen arm but would have preferred a hitter. With Boston set on Devers being their 3B of the future, I think it's possible Dalbec could been expendable in the eyes of Boston. Who knows, maybe Hahn tried and DD said no.

[Quin]

Unless the Sox think Diaz can become a dominant set up man or closer (if Burdi falters), I would've asked for another bat in place of him...but maybe that's just me.

 

Lord knows we could have used one.

 

If Diaz becomes a rock steady setup man behind Burdi, that's a good get for a fourth piece.

[Chicago White Sox]

You have to face it that Boston was not going to include another top 15 organizational prospect after Moncada, Kopech and Basabe

I don't buy this at all. DD literally accepted Hahn's counter-offer of Basabe & Diaz instead of Devers on the spot. He didn't even feel the need to run this by the rest of his front office. That screams Hahn could have probably have gotten a better 4th piece than Diaz if he pushed a bit harder. Could he have gotten Devers or Groome? Hell no, but the Red Sox have plenty of prospects in their system that are better than Diaz. And let me be clear, I'm not complaining about the trade. Moncada & Kopech may be the highest upside positional & pitching prospects in the minors respectively. I think Hahn did very well with the trade, but I simply don't buy this was the most DD was willing give up based on comments DD himself has made.

[royoung]

I guess. The Red Sox must have not been compelled to put a third blue chip guy on the table if they knew their offer was already the best. It's just annoying. I like Basabe's potential but Diaz doesn't do much for me. He just seems like another bullpen arm. Even a guy like Travis or Dalbec in place of him would've made the deal much better.

 

Travis and Dalbec are their current #5 and #6 prospects, respectively. Once DD agreed to package Moncada/Kopech/Basabe and Hahn agreed to move on from Devers, the fourth piece was going to be a flyer. Sox scout John Tumminia was "pounding the table" for Diaz to be included, based off what they saw at the end of the season. He could move quickly and be a dominant set-up guy or even closer. Thats a great way to round out a very high ceiling package of players.

[Chicago White Sox]

This is the hidden excess value in Moncada that I think some tend to forget. Boston ate 62M between the contract, bonus and penalties to sign Moncada. You can bet DD pointed that out to Hahn during negotiations. Imo, Moncada's talent and 62M invested arguably give him the value of two top fifty prospects.

He may have pointed it out, but it should have made no difference in terms of valuation. Moncada isn't more valuable than Benintendi simply because the Red Sox paid more money to acquire him in the first place. The original purchase price of an asset should have no impact on its future value.

[Dick Allen]

He may have pointed it out, but it should have made no difference in terms of valuation. Moncada isn't more valuable than Benintendi simply because the Red Sox paid more money to acquire him in the first place. The original purchase price of an asset should have no impact on its future value.

No, but usually if you invest $60 million on a 21 year old many think is the best prospect in baseball, that $60 million investment will be more than enough if the other stuff isn't enough, to keep him around, and off any table re: trades. They paid that money for his cheap seasons. You can look at it another way. The 3 years on Sale's contract cost them an extra $62 million. So he is a $30+ million a year guy in reality now.

 

The price for the bargain vanishes. Between what the paid Mocada and what the owe Sale, Boston shells out $100 million for 3 years of service.

 

 

I do have a feeling he wouldn't have been available had Dombrowski been the one who signed him.

Edited March 8, 2017 by Dick Allen

[Jose Abreu]

I like Diaz as a potential back of the pen arm but would have preferred a hitter. With Boston set on Devers being their 3B of the future, I think it's possible Dalbec could been expendable in the eyes of Boston. Who knows, maybe Hahn tried and DD said no.

At the deadline- Robertson and Frazier/Melky for Dalbec, Swihart, filler(s)?

[Bob Sacamano]

No, but usually if you invest $60 million on a 21 year old many think is the best prospect in baseball, that $60 million investment will be more than enough if the other stuff isn't enough, to keep him around, and off any table re: trades. They paid that money for his cheap seasons. You can look at it another way. The 3 years on Sale's contract cost them an extra $62 million. So he is a $30+ million a year guy in reality now.

 

The price for the bargain vanishes. Between what the paid Mocada and what the owe Sale, Boston shells out $100 million for 3 years of service.

 

 

I do have a feeling he wouldn't have been available had Dombrowski been the one who signed him.

 

100% agreed. He didn't bring him in (along with most of the other top prospects they've dealt away the past season +) so there's no attachment to him.

Edited March 8, 2017 by soxfan2014

[BlackSox13]

He may have pointed it out, but it should have made no difference in terms of valuation. Moncada isn't more valuable than Benintendi simply because the Red Sox paid more money to acquire him in the first place. The original purchase price of an asset should have no impact on its future value.

I would agree if we were talking about a player drafted out of HS/College but this about an international signing that costed Boston a total of 62M to acquire. If I invested that much money into a prospect, it's going to take more to entice me to trade him away, or in this case, give up a bit less in terms of prospects to acquire Sale. What I'm saying is that Moncada was more valuable to Boston than just his prospect ranking alone. That 62M investment absolutely factored into the trade negotiations, imo.

[bmags]

Diaz continues to be an interesting part of this deal, if only because from what we know it was the sox identifying him and saying "DIAZ WE NEED DIAZ".

 

now, he could have just been a part of a list of players as a 4th, we don't know that. But from all accounts he was chosen by us.

[BlackSox13]

No, but usually if you invest $60 million on a 21 year old many think is the best prospect in baseball, that $60 million investment will be more than enough if the other stuff isn't enough, to keep him around, and off any table re: trades. They paid that money for his cheap seasons. You can look at it another way. The 3 years on Sale's contract cost them an extra $62 million. So he is a $30+ million a year guy in reality now.

 

The price for the bargain vanishes. Between what the paid Mocada and what the owe Sale, Boston shells out $100 million for 3 years of service.

 

 

I do have a feeling he wouldn't have been available had Dombrowski been the one who signed him.

Agreed and I like the way your seeing this. Essentially, Sales surplus value from his cheap salary was negated by Boston's 62M investment in Moncada.

 

Hahn got Moncada, Kopech, Basabe and Diaz for Sale without having to send money to Boston to help compensate for Boston's initial 62M investment in Moncada. I think Hahn did rather well in that trade.

[Dick Allen]

The 63M Boston spent on Moncada was a sunk cost so I'm not sure that would factor in the trade negotiations. I really doubt that, or anything pertaining to money, came up in these negotiations.

It was a sunk cost to them, but now the Sox get him and get to pay him peanuts for his development time and probably first 3 years of service.

 

It's, like the trading of Sale with his status and contract situation, pretty much unprecedented. How many teams are going to shell out $60 million for a prospect and trade him before he gets 30 ABs and is ranked a top 5 prospect by just about everyone?

 

If he's a bust, kudos to Boston for being willing to eat it. I doubt any other team would.

[Chicago White Sox]

You can look at it another way. The 3 years on Sale's contract cost them an extra $62 million. So he is a $30+ million a year guy in reality now.

 

The price for the bargain vanishes. Between what the paid Mocada and what the owe Sale, Boston shells out $100 million for 3 years of service.

 

 

I do have a feeling he wouldn't have been available had Dombrowski been the one who signed him.

You can look at it that way, but it would be a flawed way of evaluating things. The $62M was a sunk cost and should have no impact on Moncada's value. The only two factors that drive his valuation are projected future production vs. expected future costs. He's incredibly valuable because he has a chance of becoming a cost-controlled superstar. The same logic applies Bentendi and most other elite prospects. By your logic, Benintendi is less valuable because the Red Sox were able to acquire him in a market with significant financial contraints (i.e. the draft). The reality here is that Moncada is not more valuable than Benintendi simply because he was fortunate enough to exploit a loophole for Cuban free agents and get compensated for his actual worth. The example above should just scream out how flawed this way of thinking is.

[Chicago White Sox]

Diaz continues to be an interesting part of this deal, if only because from what we know it was the sox identifying him and saying "DIAZ WE NEED DIAZ".

 

now, he could have just been a part of a list of players as a 4th, we don't know that. But from all accounts he was chosen by us.

Diaz was 100% a guy we targeted. There was an article about why the Sox targeted him, but this quote from the Boston Globe also confirms it.

 

Around 9 p.m., Dombrowski heard back from Hahn. The White Sox wanted to know if the Red Sox would be open to a deal with outfielder Luis Alexander Basabe and righthander Victor Diaz as the third and fourth pieces behind Moncada and Kopech. Dombrowski didn’t need to consult with his colleagues to offer an answer.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bostonglob...b8LLLP/amp.html

Edited March 8, 2017 by Chicago White Sox

[witesoxfan]

Moncada have had more intrinsic value to the Red Sox, so in some regard, they probably feel that they overpaid, but that $62 million would have had no effect on his market value. The Sox, now that they have him, aren't going to say he is valuable because he cost $62 million to get stateside. They are going to say he is valuable because he is good at baseball.

[Dick Allen]

You can look at it that way, but it would be a flawed way of evaluating things. The $62M was a sunk cost and should have no impact on Moncada's value. The only two factors that drive his valuation are projected future production vs. expected future costs. He's incredibly valuable because he has a chance of becoming a cost-controlled superstar. The same logic applies Bentendi and most other elite prospects. By your logic, Benintendi is less valuable because the Red Sox were able to acquire him in a market with significant financial contraints (i.e. the draft). The reality here is that Moncada is not more valuable than Benintendi simply because he was fortunate enough to exploit a loophole for Cuban free agents and get compensated for his actual worth. The example above should just scream out how flawed this way of thinking is.

The value is they paid $62 million for the cheap years of service. If he turns into a star, they re-coup their investment easily. They get Sale for 3 years. To re-coup the $100 million can be done, but the overall surplus value is going to go down if Moncada is great. I really doubt other teams would have traded him had they made the same investment, but a lot of things lined up. Sale is cheap and great, and DD wasn't around when Moncada was added to their organization.