Frazier Trade Discussion

[soxforlife05]

And to go a step further, I see zero chance that Devers is on the table for Frazier, unless Frazier just goes nuts to start the season.

 

And Devers would also have to see some major struggles in AA. He's their top prospect now.

[witesoxfan]

With the contract he has for this year, and the free agency in the distance after this season, he really doesn't have any trade value.

 

His trade value should be equal to that of a late 2nd round pick, aka a qualifying offer. Assuming Frazier has a similar year to the one he had last year, there is no legitimate reason why the White Sox, assuming they don't trade him, shouldn't tag him with a qualifying offer. They have virtually no commitments financially in the coming years and still have to field a team regardless.

 

If he accepts, which is a possibility, then you have your 3B for 2018 and then his value decreases. If he declines, you recoup some value via draft pick.

[southsider2k5]

His trade value should be equal to that of a late 2nd round pick, aka a qualifying offer. Assuming Frazier has a similar year to the one he had last year, there is no legitimate reason why the White Sox, assuming they don't trade him, shouldn't tag him with a qualifying offer. They have virtually no commitments financially in the coming years and still have to field a team regardless.

 

If he accepts, which is a possibility, then you have your 3B for 2018 and then his value decreases. If he declines, you recoup some value via draft pick.

 

Would you put up an offer in the $17.5 to 18 million dollar range to Todd Frazier?

[SCCWS]

And Devers would also have to see some major struggles in AA. He's their top prospect now.

 

They also have Marco Hernandez in AAA who hit .300+ last year who is probably a placeholder for Devers if Panda, Rutledge and Holt all fail.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Would you put up an offer in the $17.5 to 18 million dollar range to Todd Frazier?

 

Would also depend on how his market looks as well.

[witesoxfan]

Would you put up an offer in the $17.5 to 18 million dollar range to Todd Frazier?

 

For the 2018 White Sox? Absolutely. If you figure he's a 2.5 WAR player, which he was last year, and even $7 mill per WAR (where it's actually closer to $8-8.5 on the free agent market, if not more), then you are talking about a guy who is worth $17.5 mill right there.

 

Jose Bautista got a qualifying offer based on his past, because he only put up a 1.4 WAR season last year, which was also hurt by an injury. He just signed a deal for $18.5 million. I don't see why it would be far fetched for a 32 year old Todd Frazier to receive a qualifying offer if a 36 year old Jose Bautista gets one too.

[Chicago White Sox]

Would you put up an offer in the $17.5 to 18 million dollar range to Todd Frazier?

If he has a solid bounce back, no doubt I would. With lesser penalties for signing free agents with QOs, I really don't think there would be much risk that he'd accept.

[tray]

 

 

If Sandoval has any issues in Spring Training or soon after the start of the season, Dombrowski will trade Devers and perhaps more to get Frazier. Dombropwski and Boston are not going to mess around with any under-performing player on a team that is geared to compete for the WS this year.

 

As far as Devers, there are significant question marks about his upside per the link I posted, just like there are with most other prospects.

He is not close to being on the same level as Moncada and Benintendi.

 

I want Frazier on the White Sox this season and perhaps re-signed to a short term deal unless Hahn is bowled over with a trade offer. Toddfather's contribution to the team is not just measured in stats , and White Sox fans love that guy. 40 HR is a huge factor and I bet he hits better than .220 this season.

 

Did you see his son doing a Hawk impression? Put it on the boarrrrrrd..

 

[witesoxfan]

If Sandoval has any issues in Spring Training or soon after the start of the season, Dombrowski will trade Devers and perhaps more to get Frazier. Dombropwski and Boston are not going to mess around with any under-performing player on a team that is geared to compete for the WS this year.

 

I don't agree with this whatsoever. The Red Sox got 0.9 WAR out of their 3B last year, which is more than I anticipated, and added a 5-6 WAR pitcher in Chris Sale to a team that was already favored to win the division. They have no reason to give up a very talented prospect unless the player they are getting is younger and/or under team control for a while. Todd Frazier does not fit that bill. If Sandoval falters, they'll have interest in Frazier, but they're not spending a lot on him.

 

(This is not including the possibility of conflict between Frazier and Sale, which is a situation they'd certainly avoid at all costs)

 

I see the Sox getting a 45-50 FV type in a trade for Frazier, and the Sox will likely look for upside versus a high floor. Devers is probably a 60 FV type is worth well more than Todd Frazier.

 

[tray]

They have no reason to give up a very talented prospect unless the player they are getting is younger and/or under team control for a while.

Todd Frazier does not fit that bill. If Sandoval falters, they'll have interest in Frazier, but they're not spending a lot on him.

 

I am not following your logic. The Red Sox are in it to win it this year. Why would they want an unproven third basemen like Devers on a team like that instead of a guy like Frazier that could be a monster in Fenway? Also, Dombrowski has never been shy to spend money when he thinks hsi team is getting close to a championship run.

 

 

"Devers is probably a 60 FV type is worth well more than Todd Frazier."

 

This is not like trading baseball cards or making trades in the abstract based on statistics alone. Who would you want at third base in the playoffs or World Series? Devers of Frazier? That is the context.

 

 

 

 

 

[Bob Sacamano]

They have no reason to give up a very talented prospect unless the player they are getting is younger and/or under team control for a while.

Todd Frazier does not fit that bill. If Sandoval falters, they'll have interest in Frazier, but they're not spending a lot on him.

 

I am not following your logic. The Red Sox are in it to win it this year. Why would they want an unproven third basemen like Devers on a team like that instead of a guy like Frazier that could be a monster in Fenway? Also, Dombrowski has never been shy to spend money when he thinks hsi team is getting close to a championship run.

 

 

"Devers is probably a 60 FV type is worth well more than Todd Frazier."

 

This is not like trading baseball cards or making trades in the abstract based on statistics alone. Who would you want at third base in the playoffs or World Series? Devers of Frazier? That is the context.

 

No circumstance where they trade Devers for Frazier. And thats a terrible comparison. One guy is a prospect (a top one at that) and one is in the MLB. That doesn't mean they have trade Devers to acquire Frazier. Of course you'd rathe have Frazier right now lol

Edited February 22, 2017 by soxfan2014

[soxforlife05]

I think Nate jones would have to be involved also if sox were getting devers. But then we'd probably be getting back more than just devers

[BlackSox13]

Would Bobby Dalbec be too much to ask for Frazier? I doubt Boston has much interest in Frazier at this point so I'm just entertaining the idea.

[Princess Dye]

no comparison in value between Devers and Frazier

 

Devers involves plenty of mystery as to how high his ceiling can be. Frazier is an older player who just had a down WAR year. When you have a bad year at 30 that is a big problem.

 

Via WAR, Saladino was better per at-bat than Frazier in 2016. Sure Saladino's at-bats were more sculpted than Frazier's but it still shouldnt be close for what we gave up for Todfather

[turnin' two]

no comparison in value between Devers and Frazier

 

Devers involves plenty of mystery as to how high his ceiling can be. Frazier is an older player who just had a down WAR year. When you have a bad year at 30 that is a big problem.

 

Via WAR, Saladino was better per at-bat than Frazier in 2016. Sure Saladino's at-bats were more sculpted than Frazier's but it still shouldnt be close for what we gave up for Todfather

 

 

So are you saying Saladino is better? Saladino had a better WAR last year than Bryce Harper, WAR can be a very flawed stat, especially if it is the only thing you are considering. According to BWAR, Eaton was basically equivalent to Nolan Arenado. Eaton was much better than Sale (and Q was a good margin better). Saladino is a good player, and a great guy to have on the team, but I guess I don't even understand the point which you are trying to make.

[Quin]

So are you saying Saladino is better? Saladino had a better WAR last year than Bryce Harper, WAR can be a very flawed stat, especially if it is the only thing you are considering. According to BWAR, Eaton was basically equivalent to Nolan Arenado. Eaton was much better than Sale (and Q was a good margin better). Saladino is a good player, and a great guy to have on the team, but I guess I don't even understand the point which you are trying to make.

 

WAR is a counting stat, it integrates how much time has been played.

 

- It doesn't have Saladino (1.2) over Harper (3.5)

- Eaton was equivalent to Arenado because his glove was just that good last season. He was basically what the Cubs thought Heyward would be.

- He was better than Q and Sale because he's a batter, so a counting stat benefits him.

[southsider2k5]

For the 2018 White Sox? Absolutely. If you figure he's a 2.5 WAR player, which he was last year, and even $7 mill per WAR (where it's actually closer to $8-8.5 on the free agent market, if not more), then you are talking about a guy who is worth $17.5 mill right there.

 

Jose Bautista got a qualifying offer based on his past, because he only put up a 1.4 WAR season last year, which was also hurt by an injury. He just signed a deal for $18.5 million. I don't see why it would be far fetched for a 32 year old Todd Frazier to receive a qualifying offer if a 36 year old Jose Bautista gets one too.

 

The WAR scale isn't working anymore for one dimensional power hitters. Frazier had zero market at $12 million. On the open market he is worth a fraction of that.

[Chicago White Sox]

The WAR scale isn't working anymore for one dimensional power hitters. Frazier had zero market at $12 million. On the open market he is worth a fraction of that.

Why do you keep calling him a one dimensional power hitter? He can play a solid 3B, which automatically separates him from all the 1B/DH types you are comparing him to. Second, there is a big difference between a player having no market and teams not wanting to part with a premium prospect for said player on top of assuming the contract. I find it far more likely teams simply didn't want to meet the Sox's high asking price for a player coming off a dissapointing season rather than not a single team valuing Frazier as a $12M player. Finally, to assume the 3B market next year will be the same as this year is ridiculous. Hell, the 3B market could be radically different by June or July as there are several contenders with sketchy 3B situations. His value may be suppressed for now, but it won't be for a long with any semblance of a bounce-back. ZIPS has him as a 3.4 WAR player next year and I think that's very realistic. If so, he'll be worth a lot more than $12M.

[southsider2k5]

Why do you keep calling him a one dimensional power hitter? He can play a solid 3B, which automatically separates him from all the 1B/DH types you are comparing him to. Second, there is a big difference between a player having no market and teams not wanting to part with a premium prospect for said player on top of assuming the contract. I find it far more likely teams simply didn't want to meet the Sox's high asking price for a player coming off a dissapointing season rather than not a single team valuing Frazier as a $12M player. Finally, to assume the 3B market next year will be the same as this year is ridiculous. Hell, the 3B market could be radically different by June or July as there are several contenders with sketchy 3B situations. His value may be suppressed for now, but it won't be for a long with any semblance of a bounce-back. ZIPS has him as a 3.4 WAR player next year and I think that's very realistic. If so, he'll be worth a lot more than $12M.

 

 

Why do you not? He had a horrible year at 3B and at the plate. The Sox spent all winter trying to trade at 2/3 the price, and literally no one wanted him.

 

Unless both his bat and glove take a large step forward this year, he really isn't worth much. The predictors really don't mean anything here.

[bighurt574]

I could see BOS being interested in Frazier, but not for Devers.

[Bob Sacamano]

Why do you not? He had a horrible year at 3B and at the plate. The Sox spent all winter trying to trade at 2/3 the price, and literally no one wanted him.

 

Unless both his bat and glove take a large step forward this year, he really isn't worth much. The predictors really don't mean anything here.

 

I agree that he doesn't have a ton of value. I think similar to what we gave up for him at most is what we're looking at. However, I wouldn't say "no one wanted him." There really are no teams that need a 3B (yet) so it's not like teams were signing or trading for other guys instead of Frazier. Dodgers were the only team linked and that was more of an emergency in case they couldn't sign Turner (who had no market at all himself and was never linked to another team).

Edited February 22, 2017 by soxfan2014

[witesoxfan]

I am not following your logic. The Red Sox are in it to win it this year. Why would they want an unproven third basemen like Devers on a team like that instead of a guy like Frazier that could be a monster in Fenway? Also, Dombrowski has never been shy to spend money when he thinks hsi team is getting close to a championship run.

 

It has nothing to do with having Devers on the team in 2017 and much more that there are better ways of capitalizing on his value. If you have $20 and can only spend it on one thing, are you going to buy something that's worth $10, essentially costing yourself $10?

 

This is not like trading baseball cards or making trades in the abstract based on statistics alone. Who would you want at third base in the playoffs or World Series? Devers of Frazier? That is the context.

 

I want someone who is worthwhile. There are more 3B in the world than Devers and Frazier that the Red Sox can use.

 

[witesoxfan]

I agree that he doesn't have a ton of value. I think similar to what we gave up for him at most is what we're looking at. However, I wouldn't say "no one wanted him." There really are no teams that need a 3B (yet) so it's not like teams were signing or trading for other guys instead of Frazier. Dodgers were the only team linked and that was more of an emergency in case they couldn't sign Turner (who had no market at all himself and was never linked to another team).

 

I think we're in agreement that he's not worth much, but I think he's worth about a talented minor league player, perhaps a guy people project as a 45-50 FV who has the tools to grow. Frankly, to compare in the Sox system, I'd say a guy similar to Adam Engel.

[southsider2k5]

It has nothing to do with having Devers on the team in 2017 and much more that there are better ways of capitalizing on his value. If you have $20 and can only spend it on one thing, are you going to buy something that's worth $10, essentially costing yourself $10?

 

 

 

I want someone who is worthwhile. There are more 3B in the world than Devers and Frazier that the Red Sox can use.

I could also put it this way. If Devers were really available, I would bet money that another team out there would be willing to offer a better 3B than Frazier to get Devers.

[BlackSox13]

Ouch. Just looked at Frazier's advanced metrics. His defense took a pretty good hit last season. It pains me to say it but Frazier is looking more one dimensional like Carter. Still think he has more value than Carter but not by much. At this point all I can hope for is that Frazier's glove and batting average rebound a bit to make him more appealing at the trade deadline.