Quintana Rumors: Round and round and round we go

[KMule2545]

I'm thinking the Sox might hang on to Quintana this season. Next year's free agent class of SPs is nothing special so it wouldn't be all that surprising if he stuck around another year and then Hahn can move the crown jewel of the winter meetings for a second straight year.

 

Although God only knows the kind of defense Q would be pitching in front of here. And if he thought run support was bad before ...

 

It's a lotttt better than the current one if certain guys opt out.

[illinilaw08]

Houston could go after Archer but I think the Rays (like the Sox) are in the driver's seat and will want a haul for him, though less than what Q would require.

 

Imho, Houston is waiting it out hoping Hahn drops the price, which is not going to happen.

 

I do think Houston can get a trade done without Bregman but Hahn is smart in holding out to see if Houston eventually caves in.

 

Also, let's not forget the Rockies. The moves they have made show they want to compete in that division and have the bats to entice the Sox in a trade. Colorado has too many bats and not enough pitching so on paper they seem like a good fit for a trade partner.

 

Seems like the Rockies are trying to use Blackmon to get a starter which doesn't do anything for the Sox. They may still be in the market for Abreu, and I really do think that Q makes way too much sense for the Rockies to not get involved at some point, but it seems like the Rockies' plans don't include Q at the moment.

[Jose Abreu]

I take it then you're not sold on Bregman being a potential star?.....that was my point. To me...he seems like as sure a thing as you'll find in a young player. He'll be a good one I think...

I think Bregman has the potential to be great. But he also has the potential to be, well, not great. As highly as I think of him, a 1-1 with Quintana is not something I'd be interested, given that Quintana is a proven ace and Bregman is still a prospect.

 

Of course, having Bregman in a deal would diminish the rest of the return, but I would still like another couple of lower level prospects with him.

[shipps]

I'm thinking the Sox might hang on to Quintana this season. Next year's free agent class of SPs is nothing special so it wouldn't be all that surprising if he stuck around another year and then Hahn can move the crown jewel of the winter meetings for a second straight year.

 

Although God only knows the kind of defense Q would be pitching in front of here. And if he thought run support was bad before ...

 

No I am really confident Hahn is going to trade Q before spring training at the latest. Hahn is all out rebuild mode and will not risk having him get injured or show decline in performance to hurt his value. Q is going to be gone we just need the right package to come along and now teams are posturing. Its simple and is what should be expected.

[bmags]

Guys...I feel like losing Quintana would hurt the most. What is everyone's thoughts on keeping him? Maybe he can be the Ace of the next good Sox team.

 

I initially was fine with keeping him, but we do need more position players and this market trading for prospects has been good to this point. But I do not want to get rid of him for no reason.

[Jose Abreu]

Right, but he isn't now. Sickels had him ranked #31 in baseball after the minor league season ended. So now you are talking $38.2M.

 

Using the package I keep harping on.... (And Sickles top 100 rankings)

 

Martes - #19 - $39M

Reed - #31 - $38.2M

Tucker - #46 - $38.2M

Stubbs - NA - Let's just call him $10M?

 

That package right there gives the Sox $125M in surplus value. If Quintana offers $128M in surplus value....well, then I think that's a real fair trade.

I'm not a fan of this method of analysis. Prospect rankings are entirely subjective, so attaching a dollar amount to them is only amplifying the opinion of a very small group of people- sometimes just one person, depending on the rankings.

[Jose Abreu]

Guys...I feel like losing Quintana would hurt the most. What is everyone's thoughts on keeping him? Maybe he can be the Ace of the next good Sox team.

He and Abreu are definitely my favorite players, but if we get a great return, I would be open to it.

 

I'm sure the organization also feels a special connection with him over Sale, given Quintana's lack of off-field tirades and the fact that they scooped him up from the Yankees' minor league system.

[Hatchetman]

I'm not a fan of this method of analysis.

 

What would you pay for a bottle of water in the desert when you are thirsty?

[Whisox05]

Guys...I feel like losing Quintana would hurt the most. What is everyone's thoughts on keeping him? Maybe he can be the Ace of the next good Sox team.

 

If the sox were able to trade eaton which is probably the last player alot of thought would be traded then Quintana is probably going to be dealt. Hes the best next chip and hopefully will bring back position players which the team really needs. The thought of keeping him for the next good group is a risk. He has 4 years left and say the sox arent ready to start playing good ball again till at least 2019 or 2020 you are looking at only have Quintana a yr or 2 before losing him to free agency. If the sox can get a haul for him now and it helps build more of the next core the sox will probably do it

Edited December 9, 2016 by WhiteSoxLifer

[bmags]

I'm not a fan of this method of analysis. Prospect rankings are entirely subjective, so attaching a dollar amount to them is only amplifying the opinion of a very small group of people- sometimes just one person, depending on the rankings.

 

The one part I find helpful is it has been very hard for sox fans in these trade scenarios to figure out how much more it means in value to get a Moncada vs. an Albies. Even though there is a big gap there in market perception, sox fans were still basically throwing the house after them as all equal.

 

Clearly if a Bregman is available we are not getting much back.

 

But what about if Torres is available? How much does his AFL helium matter? Is Torres Frazier good enough for us?

 

This stuff is a lot harder with Boston/Washington out.

[NCsoxfan]

as opposed to praying that everyone who was signed over the offseason finds the fountain of youth and is able to recreate their career season

 

I'm on board with what we're doing, just saying there's a lot of excitement now which will dissipate into something different (the hope that prospects will pan out)

[bmags]

I'm on board with what we're doing, just saying there's a lot of excitement now which will dissipate into something different (the hope that prospects will pan out)

 

Totally. For as bad as the moves were last two offseasons it was exciting to be "in" on things. Well, after this offseason it is only waiting.

[southsider2k5]

What would you pay for a bottle of water in the desert when you are thirsty?

 

That method isn't that distinct. It is basically saying that all have this value, no matter what liquid they are, even though a bottle of anti-freeze, while great for driving your car, doesn't do you any good if you need a drink. As the White Sox have demonstrated it does you no good to have pitching, but no CF, C, 3B, 2B, etc.

[StrangeSox]

What's Q's value this year compared to next (or at the deadline), assuming he keeps pitching to form?

[bmags]

What's Q's value this year compared to next (or at the deadline), assuming he keeps pitching to form?

 

I don't think it will be that much different. I think main thing I worry about with Q market right now is there are basically 6 teams that are at the point where they are trying actively to compete AND have a farm system that works for us. And 2 of those we cleaned out.

 

Would the deadline find teams like astros more desperate to get over the top? They could equally find a dumpster dive SP with a career year.

 

What about other teams we haven't considered having a great first half, they may be in desperation mode. For those teams - their farm may develop in that time like some 2016 first round draft picks having great years that we don't see as a great haul now.

 

So I'm fine waiting on Q. I'm 100% confident he will be awesome.

[Balta1701]

The one thing that Q has going for him right now is that a low payroll team that wants to play the "be in the race every year" game can look at him and say that 4 years of control is perfect for what they want to do. If the Pirates want to compete every year, he fits there. The Astros are looking at a 5+ year horizon and 4 years basically falls in that.

 

The closer you get to his FA date, the value might not substantially drop, but the number of teams that could get in might drop. He's still the price of a #2 starter either way, but if you start having teams drop out because they will only look long term, then your chances of getting that return could drop.

[bmags]

The one thing that Q has going for him right now is that a low payroll team that wants to play the "be in the race every year" game can look at him and say that 4 years of control is perfect for what they want to do. If the Pirates want to compete every year, he fits there. The Astros are looking at a 5+ year horizon and 4 years basically falls in that.

 

The closer you get to his FA date, the value might not substantially drop, but the number of teams that could get in might drop. He's still the price of a #2 starter either way, but if you start having teams drop out because they will only look long term, then your chances of getting that return could drop.

 

This is 100% what I thought would happen, but his low cost is equally fighting that those teams view their prospects as tools to keep their cost down. There is no "fill in for free agency" for them, so it is stealing from Peter to pay Paul or whatever that folksy saying is.

 

I have been very surprised at how out of it the Pirates are, I thought they would have some urgency but they seem resigned to their fate as being behind Cards/Cubs.

[Harry Chappas]

The one thing that Q has going for him right now is that a low payroll team that wants to play the "be in the race every year" game can look at him and say that 4 years of control is perfect for what they want to do. If the Pirates want to compete every year, he fits there. The Astros are looking at a 5+ year horizon and 4 years basically falls in that.

 

The closer you get to his FA date, the value might not substantially drop, but the number of teams that could get in might drop. He's still the price of a #2 starter either way, but if you start having teams drop out because they will only look long term, then your chances of getting that return could drop.

 

Growing up in the 70's the Pirates and Orioles were my favorite teams next to the Sox and I still like them.

 

For the life of me I really cannot figure why each team seems to have gotten to point B but cannot seem to get to point C.

 

I know the Britten thing in the wild card did in the O's but I still think they were missing a couple of pieces.

 

The Pirates can't get through the playoffs becasue they do not address their flaws and with the cubs and Dodgers where they are now, the Pirates window may be closed.

 

Pirates remind me of the Sox from the last few years except they were able to achieve a level of success but are just not good enough.

Edited December 9, 2016 by Harry Chappas

[iamshack]

This is 100% what I thought would happen, but his low cost is equally fighting that those teams view their prospects as tools to keep their cost down. There is no "fill in for free agency" for them, so it is stealing from Peter to pay Paul or whatever that folksy saying is.

 

I have been very surprised at how out of it the Pirates are, I thought they would have some urgency but they seem resigned to their fate as being behind Cards/Cubs.

I think you're hitting the nail on the head here.

 

I also think the Pirates believe they can exploit a market inefficiency with defense as well, and avoid the urge to acquire premium pitching from anywhere other than the draft/international FA.

[Balta1701]

This is 100% what I thought would happen, but his low cost is equally fighting that those teams view their prospects as tools to keep their cost down. There is no "fill in for free agency" for them, so it is stealing from Peter to pay Paul or whatever that folksy saying is.

 

I have been very surprised at how out of it the Pirates are, I thought they would have some urgency but they seem resigned to their fate as being behind Cards/Cubs.

I still cannot see how Houston doesn't finally pull the trigger on an everything but Bregman deal for him before the end of the offseason. The need is too great and the have a roster that is ready with him and not ready without him.

[iamshack]

I know I'm getting the reputation as a Kyle Tucker fan boy, but i can't help it lol. His overall line on the year was .285/.360/.438/.798 at age 19 with 9 HR/69 RBI/32 SB/81K in 117 games - a bit better than his stats at just Lancaster. With that swing and his hit tool and his body, the power most likely will develop. For every one player who has in-game power at such a young age, two players won't develop power until their early to mid twenties.

 

That being said, no way in hell a 19 year old guy in A ball should be considered untouchable for a player like Quintana by a team trying to win now. Bregman I can understand being truly untouchable because his loss would affect the curent team. Get real, Houston.

I'm just not sympathetic to this "Bregman is part of our '17 core."

 

Bulls***. This isn't July 31. It's December 10. Go out and replace him.

 

A key reason you make moves like this in the offseason is so teams have a chance to move some pieces around. This has even morphed into GMs now saying "this prospect is part of our next 10 years, he's untouchable." Oh, ok, in that case, just give me a big steaming pile of s*** and I'll be happy with that.

[SoxAce]

f*** them.

 

They're also showing a reluctance to move Martes.

 

They already cost themselves Sale by not including Bregman. Now they might possibly cost themselves Quintana by not including Tucker +. If I was an Astros fan, I would be pissed at my GM.

[steveno89]

They already cost themselves Sale by not including Bregman. Now they might possibly cost themselves Quintana by not including Tucker +. If I was an Astros fan, I would be pissed at my GM.

 

It is going to take more than Tucker to land Quintana. With 4 years of control I'd be looking for a return similar at Quintana, two elite prospects (Martes is similar to Kopech in value, Moncada is a better prospect than Tucker by a considerable amount)

 

I'd be looking for a Martes/Tucker/Reed package in return for Quintana

[bmags]

I think you're hitting the nail on the head here.

 

I also think the Pirates believe they can exploit a market inefficiency with defense as well, and avoid the urge to acquire premium pitching from anywhere other than the draft/international FA.

 

And I trust them, they are a great front office dealing with difficult constraints.

[harfman77]

No doubt there's 29 teams that would love to have Q but as you said, how many have the talent and willingness to part with the talent?

 

Seattle could be the dark horse. They have the prospects but do they feel they can compete with the Rangers and Astros in '17 to justify giving up a haul for Q? Then again, the moves already made by the Texas teams may force Seattle to get in on the bidding to at least look like they are trying to compete in '17.

 

Good call on Seattle. Hadn't given them much thought. Would love to grab Vogelbach out of Seattle.

 

They also are a landing spot for Abreu. I'm not sure they have the prospects to land Q though.