Quintana Rumors: Round and round and round we go

[Balta1701]

Being paid his market value? What does WAR go for these days? $8M per win? If that's the case, market value would be $20M to $24M, which means he'll likely provide some surplus value. He'll also be one of the best 3B in free agency next year and should provide the acquiring team a pick if he leaves. I don't think a prospect in 75 to 125 range is unreasonable, but obviously there have to be teams with a hole at 3B.

 

It's really amazing how much people overreact to one down year. Frazier was a 4+ WAR player in both 2014 & 2015. He switches leagues and experiences a bizarre change in his batted ball profile and suddenly he's a 2.5 WAR player. Honestly, I don't buy it and think he will rebound to some extent. His 4+ WAR days may be over, but I still think he'll be a 3+ WAR next year. And if a team won't pay for that player now, I'll happily hold onto him until deadline and get it then.

Edwin Encarnacion was a 3.9 fWAR player last year and has put up >20 fWAR over his last 5 years. Maybe you project a bit of dropoff for him but on paper, you might call him just under a 4 WAR player next year. He got...$20 million next year. Todd Frazier, as you project, as a 2-2.5 win player, getting the same money per win that Encarnacion got the year beforehand, would be a $10-15 million player. Justin Turner put up 5.6 fWAR last year, more than Frazier has put up in any season of his career, and he got $16 million per year. Todd Frazier is not a $20 million/year player.

 

People simply are not paying right now for Todd Frazier's skill set. If you wanted to call this a market inefficiency that could be exploited to win games I'd probably agree with you, but you can only play so many guys at DH, so there's only so much you can do to win games using this inefficiency.

[Jerksticks]

I'm really looking forward to the Jones deadline bonanza. Sox are going to get a haul. As many as 20 teams will want him and that contract. While I love him to death and wish he could stay forever, selling him this year is important due to the volatile nature of relievers. I'd bet on him staying healthy and productive, but why even take that bet? Cash in, move on, Burdisville.

[OmarComing25]

Frazier makes a lot of sense for the Cardinals. Peralta sucks now and Gyorko is pretty bad too.

Edited December 29, 2016 by OmarComing25

[chitownsportsfan]

Edwin Encarnacion was a 3.9 fWAR player last year and has put up >20 fWAR over his last 5 years. Maybe you project a bit of dropoff for him but on paper, you might call him just under a 4 WAR player next year. He got...$20 million next year. Todd Frazier, as you project, as a 2-2.5 win player, getting the same money per win that Encarnacion got the year beforehand, would be a $10-15 million player. Justin Turner put up 5.6 fWAR last year, more than Frazier has put up in any season of his career, and he got $16 million per year. Todd Frazier is not a $20 million/year player.

 

People simply are not paying right now for Todd Frazier's skill set. If you wanted to call this a market inefficiency that could be exploited to win games I'd probably agree with you, but you can only play so many guys at DH, so there's only so much you can do to win games using this inefficiency.

 

I think Todd can still play a solid 3B next season, which makes him more than just a typical "DH type", but he's just a slightly better than average offensive player (which wRC+ helpfully shows), not good or excellent, and this leaves quite a bit of value tied up in his defense, which makes him a target for relatively few teams. The Dodgers make some sense. So does Baltimore imo. But who else needs a 3B that can afford to take on a mercenary?

[chitownsportsfan]

Frazier makes a lot of sense for the Cardinals. Peralta sucks now and Gyorko is pretty bad too.

 

yea there we go.

[Chicago White Sox]

Edwin Encarnacion was a 3.9 fWAR player last year and has put up >20 fWAR over his last 5 years. Maybe you project a bit of dropoff for him but on paper, you might call him just under a 4 WAR player next year. He got...$20 million next year. Todd Frazier, as you project, as a 2-2.5 win player, getting the same money per win that Encarnacion got the year beforehand, would be a $10-15 million player. Justin Turner put up 5.6 fWAR last year, more than Frazier has put up in any season of his career, and he got $16 million per year. Todd Frazier is not a $20 million/year player.

 

People simply are not paying right now for Todd Frazier's skill set. If you wanted to call this a market inefficiency that could be exploited to win games I'd probably agree with you, but you can only play so many guys at DH, so there's only so much you can do to win games using this inefficiency.

When did Todd Frazier become a DH? Am I missing something here? And Encarnacion is a 34 year old DH in a huge buyer's market who would cost a team their 1st round pick and was still able to get $21.7M/year in guaranteed money. The 2017 1B/DH market the 2018 3B market, so let's not pretend it's somehow predictive. As for Justin Turner, he clearly took a hometown discount. I don't buy for a second that's how the market valued him. You really think teams believe Turner is only worth $5M than Kendrys Morales? Or only $6M more than Andrew Cashner? Come on Balta, you're better than this.

[Balta1701]

Frazier makes a lot of sense for the Cardinals. Peralta sucks now and Gyorko is pretty bad too.

2.3 fWAR last year for Gyorko, 2.4 fWAR for Frazier.

 

Yes, Frazier is a slight upgrade. Would you take on $10 million and give up a top 100 prospect for that upgrade, even if you think that Frazier's value is being underestimated or he got extra unluckly last year?

 

Honestly, no you wouldn't. You might think about trading for him at the deadline if Gyorko fell apart, but you'd also have Moustakas as an option potentially and you've been after athleticism and defense, which Frazier doesn't provide compared to him, and you're not giving up a top 100 prospect for Frazier unless he's back to all star form at that time.

[Balta1701]

When did Todd Frazier become a DH? Am I missing something here? And Encarnacion is a 34 year old DH in a huge buyer's market who would cost a team their 1st round pick and was still able to get $21.7M/year in guaranteed money. The 2017 1B/DH market the 2018 3B market, so let's not pretend it's somehow predictive. As for Justin Turner, he clearly took a hometown discount. I don't buy for a second that's how the market valued him. You really think teams believe Turner is only worth $5M than Kendrys Morales? Or only $6M more than Andrew Cashner? Come on Balta, you're better than this.

I think Justin Turner had zero market and took the only deal there was. Take a look at the list of teams and their starting 3b - I literally just put it in this thread. It was the Dodgers and the Giants, and the Giants were only half motivated to hurt the Dodgers, they got better 3b play out of a platoon setup than they'd have gotten from Frazier. I think next offseason Frazier is on the market against Moustakas and there will be even fewer teams looking at him as a full time 3b. The trade market will still be open too - Headley probably available cheaply as well. Todd Frazier's market right now looks weak enough that I should take back my statements about how the White Sox shouldn't sign him.

 

If the White Sox were an 87 win team last year I'd have been screaming to go after Bautista or Encarnacion because yes, I think this has become a market inefficiency. Teams are no longer willing to take a risk on guys in their 30s who get most of their value out of their bats now that we're out of the steroid era, they're afraid of them falling apart.

[Chicago White Sox]

Frazier makes a lot of sense for the Cardinals. Peralta sucks now and Gyorko is pretty bad too.

The Cardinals, Mets, Giants, & Red Sox could all use him. Maybe no one bites at our price right now, but come the trade deadline that could easily change, especially if Frazier is back to being a 115 wRC+ type hitter. This idea of just getting rid of him for whatever you can get right now is absolutely crazy to me unless you think he'll continue to regress.

[bmags]

When did Todd Frazier become a DH? Am I missing something here? And Encarnacion is a 34 year old DH in a huge buyer's market who would cost a team their 1st round pick and was still able to get $21.7M/year in guaranteed money. The 2017 1B/DH market the 2018 3B market, so let's not pretend it's somehow predictive. As for Justin Turner, he clearly took a hometown discount. I don't buy for a second that's how the market valued him. You really think teams believe Turner is only worth $5M than Kendrys Morales? Or only $6M more than Andrew Cashner? Come on Balta, you're better than this.

 

I am certain that if Todd Frazier were a FA this year he would make less than Turner.

 

Frazier is not worth that much. Good player though.

[OmarComing25]

2.3 fWAR last year for Gyorko, 2.4 fWAR for Frazier.

 

Yes, Frazier is a slight upgrade. Would you take on $10 million and give up a top 100 prospect for that upgrade, even if you think that Frazier's value is being underestimated or he got extra unluckly last year?

 

Honestly, no you wouldn't. You might think about trading for him at the deadline if Gyorko fell apart, but you'd also have Moustakas as an option potentially and you've been after athleticism and defense, which Frazier doesn't provide compared to him, and you're not giving up a top 100 prospect for Frazier unless he's back to all star form at that time.

Sure but I don't buy Gyorko doing that again, and the projections don't either (Frazier is projected to be ~2 WAR better). You can't just assume Gyorko is going to repeat that. 2015 Frazier was nearly 4 wins better than 2015 Gyorko. 2014 Frazier was nearly 5 WAR better than 2014 Gyorko.

[ChiSoxFanMike]

BlackSox13 brings up an intriguing idea. The Mariners.

 

Lewis/O'Neill/Neidert/Vogelbach/Haniger isn't terrible.

[Balta1701]

Sure but I don't buy Gyorko doing that again, and the projections don't either (Frazier is projected to be ~2 WAR better). You can't just assume Gyorko is going to repeat that. 2015 Frazier was nearly 4 wins better than 2015 Gyorko. 2014 Frazier was nearly 5 WAR better than 2014 Gyorko.

And if you want to really play that same game, the projections have Turner being 1 WAR better than Frazier next year, so if you're paying Turner $16 million/year...

 

The 1b/DH/3b positions have just become buyer's markets this offseason. There are more of them available than there are teams who think they're a 3b away from competing. If 4 of them blow their knees out before July this market swings the other way, but that's what we need to have happen for Frazier to have the kind of value you guys want him to have.

[Balta1701]

BlackSox13 brings up an intriguing idea. The Mariners.

 

Lewis/O'Neill/Neidert/Vogelbach/Haniger isn't terrible.

I haven't studied any of these guys this offseason, can you add any details to make a more convincing case?

[NCsoxfan]

BlackSox13 brings up an intriguing idea. The Mariners.

 

Lewis/O'Neill/Neidert/Vogelbach/Haniger isn't terrible.

 

Lewis, the OF who crushed at the small Georgia school? If he's the headliner, no way I'm game. Nice prospect and all, but seems nowhere close to being a major contributor.

 

Update: Yes, just looked. He was their 1st round pick in '16 and blew out his ACL in July in Single- A ball. Hard pass.

Edited December 29, 2016 by NCsoxfan

[Heads22]

I'm really looking forward to the Jones deadline bonanza. Sox are going to get a haul. As many as 20 teams will want him and that contract. While I love him to death and wish he could stay forever, selling him this year is important due to the volatile nature of relievers. I'd bet on him staying healthy and productive, but why even take that bet? Cash in, move on, Burdisville.

 

Would be helpful to move Robo in the offseason then, allow Nate to add value as a closer.

[Chicago White Sox]

I am certain that if Todd Frazier were a FA this year he would make less than Turner.

 

Frazier is not worth that much. Good player though.

I'm not arguing what Todd Frazier would be worth in this market, I'm arguing what he'd be worth during the 2017 season for a team that acquires him. Turner is coming off a career year, while Frazier is coming off a dissapointing one. There's no doubt that Turner would get more in this market. Having said that, it's quite apparent that teams didn't view Turner as a 5+ WAR player (which they shouldn't), but that he also took a sizable hometown discount. His $16M AAV does reflect his true market value IMO. What's interesting though is that Frazier was the superior player in 2014 & 2015. With a strong rebound in 2017 Frazier could easily eclipse Turner's contract next offseason, especially when you consider he won't cost a team their 1st round pick. Again, I think some posters here are seriously undervaluing Frazier because of his poor 2016 season. I fully expect a 3+ WAR season out of him next year and that should be very valuable come the deadline no matter what market rate you place on WAR.

[Balta1701]

Would be helpful to move Robo in the offseason then, allow Nate to add value as a closer.

I think teams have genuinely gotten to the point that they will focus less on saves. I do think that Jones got a bit unlucky last year - I think him having 9 BS is a symptom of that, and that if you put him in a pen with Putnam and Petricka he might well have a simply dominant first half. He's a guy I am in no hurry to move unless you pay through the teeth.

[Heads22]

I think teams have genuinely gotten to the point that they will focus less on saves. I do think that Jones got a bit unlucky last year - I think him having 9 BS is a symptom of that, and that if you put him in a pen with Putnam and Petricka he might well have a simply dominant first half. He's a guy I am in no hurry to move unless you pay through the teeth.

 

Yup. And not saying that Nate needs saves to add value to the Sox or in my eyes, but it's easier for an organization, publicly, to pay more for a closer than a setup man who admittedly doesn't have the longest or most injury free track record.

[Balta1701]

Yup. And not saying that Nate needs saves to add value to the Sox or in my eyes, but it's easier for an organization, publicly, to pay more for a closer than a setup man who admittedly doesn't have the longest or most injury free track record.

I think you can be grateful for the Cleveland Indians here. After watching Andrew Miller in the playoffs last year, I think your standard talk radio response now is "We got a setup man with an ERA in the 1s and he throws 99? Awesome!".

[jamesdiego]

I am for one very happy to see the Sox are paying hardball. It seems like every team thinks they can get a bargain on a front line starter with a great contract. We need to rob somebody in a trade for Q. And if they don't want to give it up then just keep him. There is no need to take less than a haul.

 

Please Do Not F'n Take Less Than A Haul Sox !

[caulfield12]

Or Frazier could go to the Indians...and they move Ramirez back into a Javier Baez-like role, with an emphasis on the corner outfield spots (especially if Brantley struggles with his health again). Lonnie Chisenhall is obviously not the first name that comes to mind for starting RFer on a World Series-caliber team, but they managed to get by with him last year.

 

What were Ramirez's DRS numbers at 3B last year, compared to other positions over the last couple of years?

Edited December 29, 2016 by caulfield12

[bmags]

I'm not arguing what Todd Frazier would be worth in this market, I'm arguing what he'd be worth during the 2017 season for a team that acquires him. Turner is coming off a career year, while Frazier is coming off a dissapointing one. There's no doubt that Turner would get more in this market. Having said that, it's quite apparent that teams didn't view Turner as a 5+ WAR player (which they shouldn't), but that he also took a sizable hometown discount. His $16M AAV does reflect his true market value IMO. What's interesting though is that Frazier was the superior player in 2014 & 2015. With a strong rebound in 2017 Frazier could easily eclipse Turner's contract next offseason, especially when you consider he won't cost a team their 1st round pick. Again, I think some posters here are seriously undervaluing Frazier because of his poor 2016 season. I fully expect a 3+ WAR season out of him next year and that should be very valuable come the deadline no matter what market rate you place on WAR.

We aren't talking about how good Frazier is, we are talking about his market value. And his market is tiny. Tiny markets don't lead to overspending. His value to the white Sox at this point is largely what other players he'll create for us.

[beautox]

Q to the Cubs for Happ, Jimenez, Candelario, Caratini & Jose Paulino, is that a "fair" package while including the cross town tax and who says no? thats three top 100 prospects a very intresting looking catcher and a low level lotto ticket.

[TaylorStSox]

Threads thig bug should have a summary every 25 pages. I'm curious to see where talks are at, but I'm sure as hell not gonna read through that many pages.