Quintana Rumors: Round and round and round we go

[Con te Giolito]

I dont think Colorado is interested in Quintana. I dont know what their reasons are, though their unique homefield sure gives them a lot of weird things to consider that other teams normally wouldn't even bother with, but if they really wanted Quintana there would be something linking the two by now. Perhaps its the price, one thing we dont know is what Hahn's ask is and maybe they dont want to sell their entire farm.

 

We know the Astros, Yankees and Pirates have or at least had some pretty strong interest but have backed out because of the price also. Some of you seem overjoyed by this, but with the WBC coming up and the prospect of teams just moving on from the idea of getting Quintana (as has appeared to have happened with the Astros) I'm getting pretty worried. Hahn may have overplayed his hand.

[illinilaw08]

I dont think Colorado is interested in Quintana. I dont know what their reasons are, though their unique homefield sure gives them a lot of weird things to consider that other teams normally wouldn't even bother with, but if they really wanted Quintana there would be something linking the two by now. Perhaps its the price, one thing we dont know is what Hahn's ask is and maybe they dont want to sell their entire farm.

 

We know the Astros, Yankees and Pirates have or at least had some pretty strong interest but have backed out because of the price also. Some of you seem overjoyed by this, but with the WBC coming up and the prospect of teams just moving on from the idea of getting Quintana (as has appeared to have happened with the Astros) I'm getting pretty worried. Hahn may have overplayed his hand.

 

Purple Row has had two articles about Q to the Rockies, so their fanbase is interested, and the Rockies front office is notoriously quiet. We know they talked to the Sox about Abreu and Frazier before the Winter Meetings, so there has been communication between the two FOs. Point here - there's been chatter, but nothing from any official capacity.

 

I'm skeptical it will happen because of the nuances of pitching in Coors, and I think there was an Olney chat shortly after the Eaton trade that was skeptical of how Q's curve would play in Denver. But there's been at least some smoke around the Rockies and Q.

 

I'm not worried that Hahn has overplayed his hand, and I'm not aware of any evidence that the Pirates have backed out. If there's a deal to be made, it will get done. There's no sense in giving Q away.

[ptatc]

Purple Row has had two articles about Q to the Rockies, so their fanbase is interested, and the Rockies front office is notoriously quiet. We know they talked to the Sox about Abreu and Frazier before the Winter Meetings, so there has been communication between the two FOs. Point here - there's been chatter, but nothing from any official capacity.

 

I'm skeptical it will happen because of the nuances of pitching in Coors, and I think there was an Olney chat shortly after the Eaton trade that was skeptical of how Q's curve would play in Denver. But there's been at least some smoke around the Rockies and Q.

 

I'm not worried that Hahn has overplayed his hand, and I'm not aware of any evidence that the Pirates have backed out. If there's a deal to be made, it will get done. There's no sense in giving Q away.

I keep going back to the fact that he is worth more to the Sox than other teams because of the way others view him. The Sox won't trade him for less than a #1 is worth and others don't view him that way, thus no trade.

[shipps]

I keep going back to the fact that he is worth more to the Sox than other teams because of the way others view him. The Sox won't trade him for less than a #1 is worth and others don't view him that way, thus no trade.

 

Yet...but after time and deep thought I think teams will talk themselves into believing he is a number 1.

[Chicago White Sox]

You could always ignore his hypo.

Well someone was going to respond and say the proposal would never happen. Just how message boards work. But honestly, I'd rather have him come up with a more realistic proposal to discuss. I appreciate his efforts to drive some discussion, god knows we need with how quiet the rumor mill has gotten.

[Con te Giolito]

I keep going back to the fact that he is worth more to the Sox than other teams because of the way others view him. The Sox won't trade him for less than a #1 is worth and others don't view him that way, thus no trade.

Is Quintana really worth more to the Sox than other teams? Sox are going to waste his age 28 and age 29 seasons and endure two years of the risk of injury/loss of effectiveness just so they can have have him wrapped up cheap for one year of "maybe we'll contend, best case scenario" in 2019 and then one year of what should be an honest effort to win the AL Central.

 

I guess it depends what the Yankees and Pirates are willing to part with, but they would really have to be lowballing the Sox to not make it worth dealing Jose Quintana.

[Balta1701]

Is Quintana really worth more to the Sox than other teams? Sox are going to waste his age 28 and age 29 seasons and endure two years of the risk of injury/loss of effectiveness just so they can have have him wrapped up cheap for one year of "maybe we'll contend, best case scenario" in 2019 and then one year of what should be an honest effort to win the AL Central.

 

I guess it depends what the Yankees and Pirates are willing to part with, but they would really have to be lowballing the Sox to not make it worth dealing Jose Quintana.

If the Yankees aren't willing to move their top guys and the Pirates aren't willing to move Meadows then yes, I would say that they are genuinely failing to meet the White Sox's price and the White Sox should hold out for a better deal..

[ptatc]

Is Quintana really worth more to the Sox than other teams? Sox are going to waste his age 28 and age 29 seasons and endure two years of the risk of injury/loss of effectiveness just so they can have have him wrapped up cheap for one year of "maybe we'll contend, best case scenario" in 2019 and then one year of what should be an honest effort to win the AL Central.

 

I guess it depends what the Yankees and Pirates are willing to part with, but they would really have to be lowballing the Sox to not make it worth dealing Jose Quintana.

Sorry, i should have said perceived worth.

[ptatc]

Yet...but after time and deep thought I think teams will talk themselves into believing he is a number 1.

I hope so. The team could use some more talent.

 

However, as I've said before. With his contract he should still be under a reasonable contract when the team is good again. That's one less good pitcher they would need to find from the prospects.

[Chicago White Sox]

Sale got a top 10 MLB prospect, a top 30 MLB prospect and another org top 10 (which sounds like he'll land in the top MLB 100 soon), +throw in.

 

Rockies equivalent for Quintana would be Rodgers, Pint, Tapia, +throw in. Some have said the Sox are asking for more than what they got for Sale.

 

So that leaves Dahl (I think he was ranked ~70 in MLB), Hoffman (top 30 in MLB) and Murphy for Abreu.

 

The probability of every trade proposal happening is .001%. While I come to the realization it won't happen, it's not that far fetched in comparison to the Sale and Eaton trades. Like others have mentioned, signing Trumbo, Carter or Napoli then trading for Q would make more sense and I would agree. But that still lands at about .002% chance of happening.

 

Sorry for wasting your time.

Well there is your problem, you've completely overvalued Abreu, especially in this market. Dahl was ranked 16th in BA's midseason update and Hoffman was ranked 49th. Jose Abreu isn't getting you that package coming off his 2016 season. And when you throw in prospect free alternatives like Napoli still available in free agency, you probably can't even get Hoffman as a headliner right now. We really need a strong bounce back from Jose to have any chance of landing he caliber of prospects you're referring to.

[OmarComing25]

I keep going back to the fact that he is worth more to the Sox than other teams because of the way others view him. The Sox won't trade him for less than a #1 is worth and others don't view him that way, thus no trade.

I'm not really worried about this because if other GMs don't know how good Quintana is then they wouldn't be very good at their jobs. We're not talking about the casual fan here.

[illinilaw08]

I keep going back to the fact that he is worth more to the Sox than other teams because of the way others view him. The Sox won't trade him for less than a #1 is worth and others don't view him that way, thus no trade.

 

I was reading the comments on the most recent Q article on Purple Row (Rockies fan site), and there was a comment that was pretty spot on re: the difference in value between Q and Sale. Other than strikeouts, Q and Sale have pretty similar advanced numbers - whether that's judged by FIP, WAR, ERA +, etc. Where they differ is on their ability to dominate in a given game. It shouldn't be a surprise to any of us that Sale has the pure stuff to win a game by himself, and Q just doesn't have that level of stuff.

 

With Q, you are dealing for a really, really good pitcher. Durable, consistent, and on an absurdly cheap deal. But you aren't dealing for a guy that's going to go out and steal a game for you with an 8 IP, 2 H, 14 K day. Teams are more likely to give top flight value for the guy who can go out and give you Sale's top end level of brilliance than the guy who is going to give you Q's sustained level of consistently very, very good.

 

If there is a disconnect, IMO, that's going to be it.

[Con te Giolito]

I'm not really worried about this because if other GMs don't know how good Quintana is then they wouldn't be very good at their jobs. We're not talking about the casual fan here.

Right but opposing GM's know there's more to a pitcher than his place on the Fangraphs WAR leaderboard and surplus value. As good as Quintana is you'd have to be one deluded Sox fan to put him in that TOP TOP tier with Kershaw (who's probably on his own island out there), Sale, Klubot, Madbum, Lester, Sydnergaard, Scherzer and Verlander. GM's know this, they aren't going to give up for Quintana the same thing they are willing to give up for Sale. If the Sox are really looking for Quintana to get a 79 to Sale's 80 they will never be able to deal him.

 

That's not saying its impossible to get Torres, Frazier, Bell or Meadows, but it probably means getting both Torres AND Frazier or Bell AND Meadows (like the Sox got Moncada AND Kopech) is totally out of the question. If you want the top 10 overall prospect as the headliner it'll probably be that guy and a few scout's picks...and that is it. Perhaps Frazier and Bell could be paired with another top 100 guy like Kaprielian for the Yanks or Newman for the Pirates, but even that feels like a bit of a stretch to me.

[Dam8610]

Since the 3 way deal is unlikely to emerge, and it's almost 100 pages ago now, maybe the thread title should change?

[Con te Giolito]

I was reading the comments on the most recent Q article on Purple Row (Rockies fan site), and there was a comment that was pretty spot on re: the difference in value between Q and Sale. Other than strikeouts, Q and Sale have pretty similar advanced numbers - whether that's judged by FIP, WAR, ERA +, etc. Where they differ is on their ability to dominate in a given game. It shouldn't be a surprise to any of us that Sale has the pure stuff to win a game by himself, and Q just doesn't have that level of stuff.

 

With Q, you are dealing for a really, really good pitcher. Durable, consistent, and on an absurdly cheap deal. But you aren't dealing for a guy that's going to go out and steal a game for you with an 8 IP, 2 H, 14 K day. Teams are more likely to give top flight value for the guy who can go out and give you Sale's top end level of brilliance than the guy who is going to give you Q's sustained level of consistently very, very good.

 

If there is a disconnect, IMO, that's going to be it.

I think a big part of it is Sale can give you a bit better of a regular season than Quintana but also the possibility of a Klubot or Madbum like run of postseason dominance that can almost single handedly win a title. Quintana and Sale have roughly the same regular season value when you factor in durability, age and contract, but Sale's postseason potential is off the charts.

[ptatc]

I was reading the comments on the most recent Q article on Purple Row (Rockies fan site), and there was a comment that was pretty spot on re: the difference in value between Q and Sale. Other than strikeouts, Q and Sale have pretty similar advanced numbers - whether that's judged by FIP, WAR, ERA +, etc. Where they differ is on their ability to dominate in a given game. It shouldn't be a surprise to any of us that Sale has the pure stuff to win a game by himself, and Q just doesn't have that level of stuff.

 

With Q, you are dealing for a really, really good pitcher. Durable, consistent, and on an absurdly cheap deal. But you aren't dealing for a guy that's going to go out and steal a game for you with an 8 IP, 2 H, 14 K day. Teams are more likely to give top flight value for the guy who can go out and give you Sale's top end level of brilliance than the guy who is going to give you Q's sustained level of consistently very, very good.

 

If there is a disconnect, IMO, that's going to be it.

I would agree.

 

There is also the mental aspect of never been a true "ace of a staff." Not that he can't be, but that doubt would also make a GM a little hesitant.

[tray]

Sox will not get a top 10 prospect for Quintana now, so it may be better to wait until some team has an urgent need for a top line starter during the season because of injury or poor performance by someone in their rotation.

No need to be impatient. Sit back and relax. We aren't going anywhere any time soon. It looks llike 2017 is going to be a strange year where young players are being auditioned for the Sox and veteran players are being auditioned for scouts of other teams.

Yes, just hold on to Quintana now, make him our ace, and hope he starts the season strong. If he does that, the Sox will get the prospect haul they want. If he blows up his arm or pitches poorly, well that's the risk you take if you want to get what you want for him.

Don't settle for less. Please.

[Dam8610]

I think a big part of it is Sale can give you a bit better of a regular season than Quintana but also the possibility of a Klubot or Madbum like run of postseason dominance that can almost single handedly win a title. Quintana and Sale have roughly the same regular season value when you factor in durability, age and contract, but Sale's postseason potential is off the charts.

 

It's funny that you say that, because based on Sale's September meltdowns and Q's incredible consistency, in a Sale vs. Q postseason matchup, provided everything else was relatively equal, I'd put my money on Q. Of course other teams want to undervalue Q, they're the ones potentially paying the price for him, but to suggest that the White Sox should significantly lower their standards from a Sale package is wrong IMO. If another team wants Q, they need to pay an appropriate price for him, and the White Sox should not back down from that line of thought just because those teams don't want to do what it takes to get a player the caliber of Q.

[Con te Giolito]

Sox will not get a top 10 prospect for Quintana now, so it may be better to wait until some team has an urgent need for a top line starter during the season because of injury or poor performance by someone in their rotation.

No need to be impatient. Sit back and relax. We aren't going anywhere any time soon. It looks llike 2017 is going to be a strange year where young players are being auditioned for the Sox and veteran players are being auditioned for scouts of other teams.

Yes, just hold on to Quintana now, make him our ace, and hope he starts the season strong. If he does that, the Sox will get the prospect haul they want. If he blows up his arm or pitches poorly, well that's the risk you take if you want to get what you want for him.

Don't settle for less. Please.

The 2017-18 free agent class for pitchers is loaded. Barring an insane Cy Young season where Quintana puts up Kershaw #'s the value of Jose Quintana begins its decline sometime very soon...probably by mid-February as teams starting thinking "you know what, I'd rather wait until next offseason and just spend money instead of prospect on a TOR starter." That's not even factoring the risk of injury or ineffectiveness which is a lot more than "the risk you take", Q falling off or getting hurt is basically nuclear and derails the entire rebuild.

 

He has to be moved this offseason. What constitutes settling for less now will be a shocking overpay this time next year.

[RockfordJim]

Just saw this. Sorry if its already been discussed.

 

http://sportsmockery.com/2016/12/mlb-insid...cago-white-sox/

 

[shipps]

We are starting to talk ourselves into Q being overrated and not as valuable already. Crazy talk.

[Dick Allen]

The 2017-18 free agent class for pitchers is loaded. Barring an insane Cy Young season where Quintana puts up Kershaw #'s the value of Jose Quintana begins its decline sometime very soon...probably by mid-February as teams starting thinking "you know what, I'd rather wait until next offseason and just spend money instead of prospect on a TOR starter." That's not even factoring the risk of injury or ineffectiveness which is a lot more than "the risk you take", Q falling off or getting hurt is basically nuclear and derails the entire rebuild.

 

He has to be moved this offseason. What constitutes settling for less now will be a shocking overpay this time next year.

Strongly disagree. A lot of teams are not capable of paying TOR $30 million a year, and there are several who are that are trying to get under the luxury tax. There will always be a huge market for Q as long as he performs like he has performed.

[GGajewski18]

Just saw this. Sorry if its already been discussed.

 

http://sportsmockery.com/2016/12/mlb-insid...cago-white-sox/

 

That's an awful trade for the Sox. Pitt gives up Bell and Diaz for Q? Not a chance. Yes they get rid of Cutch, but still crazy to me.

Edited December 30, 2016 by SoxPride18

[Quin]

It's a Phil Rogers proposal. I wouldn't worry about it.

[ptatc]

It's funny that you say that, because based on Sale's September meltdowns and Q's incredible consistency, in a Sale vs. Q postseason matchup, provided everything else was relatively equal, I'd put my money on Q. Of course other teams want to undervalue Q, they're the ones potentially paying the price for him, but to suggest that the White Sox should significantly lower their standards from a Sale package is wrong IMO. If another team wants Q, they need to pay an appropriate price for him, and the White Sox should not back down from that line of thought just because those teams don't want to do what it takes to get a player the caliber of Q.

If you truly think you would rather have Quintana than Sale, be my guest. however, I think you may one of the few. There is a reason boston wanted Sale not Quintana even though Quintana had a more favorable contract.