Quintana Rumors: Round and round and round we go

[steveno89]

So I'm missing one thing here, what is the additional risk that we'd have to take on to apply pressure to them? No matter what we do the calculus isn't going to change - there are only a handful of teams left who could offer an appropriate price, and until more than 1 of them decides he's a priority the other teams can wait for our price to fall. What can the White Sox do to change this dynamic other than drop his price or wait?

 

There really is no risk for the sox.

 

Quintanas contract is very unique and affordable in the current market. Pretty much any team could fit him into their payroll.

 

That will come at a premium of multiple top prospects, we just have to be patient.

 

Keeping Quintana is not the worst idea either. I know we have position player needs, but he could be viewed as a cheap piece to help build around if we do not get the offers we would like.

 

In an ideal situation we trade him, but I would not be willing to discount his price at all.

[ptatc]

I agree he's not Betts and I said so; but it's the same issue. When top prospects succeed in their cup of coffee, their value to the team, especially a contender, is much higher. Trading young productive hitters opens another hole for them; which they may be able to get by with Jaso et al this year, but the Pirates are not and never will be "all in" for one given year.

 

 

The Pirates have several other prospects that the Sox could use.

As for the Astros, I would consider Reed among the 2nd tier. He failed in his cup of coffee, but may have been rushed a bit, and the value now is heavily discounted.

 

I think they could do a deal with Yankees, if they would take Rutherford + secondary pieces. Is that enough?

I would disagree that a small sample size (under 100 AB) will significantly change the value of the prospect. It does change if it's closer to half a full season.

 

The value changes if the MLB is counting on them for the upcoming year, regardless of the performance the past year.

[ptatc]

And even so, that offer is more than vast majority of league could offer as their framework.

The sox should just keep q then. He is more valuable than that package.

[ptatc]

So I'm missing one thing here, what is the additional risk that we'd have to take on to apply pressure to them? No matter what we do the calculus isn't going to change - there are only a handful of teams left who could offer an appropriate price, and until more than 1 of them decides he's a priority the other teams can wait for our price to fall. What can the White Sox do to change this dynamic other than drop his price or wait?

They should wait until the season unfolds, if these are the offers. One of the contenders is going to short one quality starter and it may push them over the edge. If not, the try again next year.

[steveno89]

I would disagree that a small sample size (under 100 AB) will significantly change the value of the prospect. It does change if it's closer to half a full season.

 

The value changes if the MLB is counting on them for the upcoming year, regardless of the performance the past year.

 

Small sample sizes won't totally right off a prospect, but they can damage their stock.

 

AJ reeds disastrous 48 games was enough to bring his prospect stock into question.

 

Joey Gallo has done massive damage to his stock as well.

 

Moncada I am not worried about. He got rushed to the MLB level and has never played at AAA.

 

Giolito had a tough second half, but still posted pretty solid AAA numbers. He could bounce back in 2017.

[Con te Giolito]

I agree. With Quintana's contract, it is even more important to stick to this. We will be under a reasonable contract when the team is ready to compete again. There is absolutely no reason to move him unless they get a deal they are comfortable with.

For a year, maybe two. And if Quintana gets hurt or loses effectiveness that plan is shot. I'm not going over again why waiting until the deadline, or worse yet next offseason, to trade Q should also be out of the question.

 

This is the problem with backing up the truck the way the Sox have. It was easy to start the rebuild because they had to be coaxed into doing it. Hahn could easily have pulled Eaton and Sale back and abandoned the rebuild idea if their price wasn't met. But now the cat is out of the bag and everyone knows the Sox have to sell most of these pieces now. At some point Hahn is just going to have to take the best deal on the table because the reality of getting much less next year and the threat of disaster striking and getting nothing is not acceptable.

[ptatc]

Small sample sizes won't totally right off a prospect, but they can damage their stock.

 

AJ reeds disastrous 48 games was enough to bring his prospect stock into question.

 

Joey Gallo has done massive damage to his stock as well.

 

Moncada I am not worried about. He got rushed to the MLB level and has never played at AAA.

 

Giolito had a tough second half, but still posted pretty solid AAA numbers. He could bounce back in 2017.

Moncada had 20 PAs. There is nothing that should be determined from that.

 

With the other, they all hadover 100 PAs so that can make you think a little. I didn't watch them so they would need to look at how their approach was as opposed to just the stats.

[bmags]

Glasnow + Newman? A lot of teams have the ability to beat that offer.

I'm listening.

[ptatc]

For a year, maybe two. And if Quintana gets hurt or loses effectiveness that plan is shot. I'm not going over again why waiting until the deadline, or worse yet next offseason, to trade Q should also be out of the question.

 

This is the problem with backing up the truck the way the Sox have. It was easy to start the rebuild because they had to be coaxed into doing it. Hahn could easily have pulled Eaton and Sale back and abandoned the rebuild idea if their price wasn't met. But now the cat is out of the bag and everyone knows the Sox have to sell most of these pieces now. At some point Hahn is just going to have to take the best deal on the table because the reality of getting much less next year and the threat of disaster striking and getting nothing is not acceptable.

They need to determine if the package in return for Q is worth it. If some of the reports are true, they should not trade him. He is worth more than what they are getting. It is very difficult to replace a proven TOR pitcher. He should not be traded unless the value is there. There is no reason to trade him for anything less.

Your view of having to trade him now is too short sighted. Even if he is only around for a year or two when they are good again, that has more value than some of the offers.

[bmags]

That's exactly right. So you must wait until they do feel pressure. However, that requires you to take on additional risk yourself.

 

We just need to remember that when Huntington comes calling when the pressure IS on them.

 

It's going to happen this offseason. Like the out of nowhere bidding war on cespedes in late January, when Q is truly close there will be a bidding war. Sox clearly are trying to prod some teams in thinking they have a chance so they can shop legitimate offers. But until it appears Q is truly close to moving, it's too early to lay down your cards.

[steveno89]

It's going to happen this offseason. Like the out of nowhere bidding war on cespedes in late January, when Q is truly close there will be a bidding war. Sox clearly are trying to prod some teams in thinking they have a chance so they can shop legitimate offers. But until it appears Q is truly close to moving, it's too early to lay down your cards.

 

The sale deal with the Red Sox was a year in the making. Quintana more than likely will be traded, but you just have to wait for the right timing and right return.

[GGajewski18]

It's going to happen this offseason. Like the out of nowhere bidding war on cespedes in late January, when Q is truly close there will be a bidding war. Sox clearly are trying to prod some teams in thinking they have a chance so they can shop legitimate offers. But until it appears Q is truly close to moving, it's too early to lay down your cards.

 

I agree, I don't think the Sox can go into ST with Quintana still on the roster. There is risk involved with any player, and I just think trading Q would be best for the Sox and their rebuild.

 

Still see the Pirates and Yankees as the favorite to land Quintana.

 

[iamshack]

So I'm missing one thing here, what is the additional risk that we'd have to take on to apply pressure to them? No matter what we do the calculus isn't going to change - there are only a handful of teams left who could offer an appropriate price, and until more than 1 of them decides he's a priority the other teams can wait for our price to fall. What can the White Sox do to change this dynamic other than drop his price or wait?

You tell them if they wait, the price increases.

 

If you allow the Pirates the luxury of waiting until June or July to see how their big league team is faring, you take on the risk that Quintana will either injure himself or his performance will degrade, thus affecting his value on the market. To me, a few posters have nailed it on the head - there just is not a lot of real pressure on the Pirates to fork over what the White Sox want right now, particularly if they are looking up at the Cubs and saying "what are the odds..."

 

But let's say they are competing in late June or early July and they need to add SP. Then they come knocking. You are going to let them have the same deal we asked for in the offseason?

 

Maybe you will...but you need to make them believe that if they want to play hardball today, during the offseason, that they should fully expect that we will play hardball with them if they come back at the deadline. You have to at least make them believe there is that threat.

 

For me, if I was Huntington, and I believed in my team, and I really like Quintana, that might just be enough to put me over the edge and just get the deal done now.

[Con te Giolito]

The sale deal with the Red Sox was a year in the making. Quintana more than likely will be traded, but you just have to wait for the right timing and right return.

And the Sox may have waited a bit too long to be reasonable in a Sale trade. We'll never know for certain but I think the Sox could've landed Benintendi + Moncada if they weren't so busy being hardheaded about the Red Sox meeting their price with Mookie Betts. Perhaps a lesson they should learn with Quintana.

Edited December 31, 2016 by Con te Giolito

[GGajewski18]

You tell them if they wait, the price increases.

 

If you allow the Pirates the luxury of waiting until June or July to see how their big league team is faring, you take on the risk that Quintana will either injure himself or his performance will degrade, thus affecting his value on the market. To me, a few posters have nailed it on the head - there just is not a lot of real pressure on the Pirates to fork over what the White Sox want right now, particularly if they are looking up at the Cubs and saying "what are the odds..."

 

But let's say they are competing in late June or early July and they need to add SP. Then they come knocking. You are going to let them have the same deal we asked for in the offseason?

 

Maybe you will...but you need to make them believe that if they want to play hardball today, during the offseason, that they should fully expect that we will play hardball with them if they come back at the deadline. You have to at least make them believe there is that threat.

 

For me, if I was Huntington, and I believed in my team, and I really like Quintana, that might just be enough to put me over the edge and just get the deal done now.

 

Spot on Shack, price definitely goes up in the season for Quintana.

[Balta1701]

You tell them if they wait, the price increases.

 

If you allow the Pirates the luxury of waiting until June or July to see how their big league team is faring, you take on the risk that Quintana will either injure himself or his performance will degrade, thus affecting his value on the market. To me, a few posters have nailed it on the head - there just is not a lot of real pressure on the Pirates to fork over what the White Sox want right now, particularly if they are looking up at the Cubs and saying "what are the odds..."

 

But let's say they are competing in late June or early July and they need to add SP. Then they come knocking. You are going to let them have the same deal we asked for in the offseason?

 

Maybe you will...but you need to make them believe that if they want to play hardball today, during the offseason, that they should fully expect that we will play hardball with them if they come back at the deadline. You have to at least make them believe there is that threat.

 

For me, if I was Huntington, and I believed in my team, and I really like Quintana, that might just be enough to put me over the edge and just get the deal done now.

Unless you're a Jedi, I don't see why the Pirates would believe that statement. They should absolutely expect we're going to force them to pay a high price at the deadline, but they should expect that because we're going to force teams to pay a high price right now and we've already forced 2 teams to pay high prices.

 

You said yourself you're not willing to punish a team for not putting a good deal on paper now. Stating that you will do that and then being unwilling to do that doesn't seem like a very skilled negotiation tactic to me. If they held onto McCutchen, found themselves 1 game back of the Cubs, and decided to move Meadows in June, you wouldn't say no to that and neither would I.

[iamshack]

Unless you're a Jedi, I don't see why the Pirates would believe that statement. They should absolutely expect we're going to force them to pay a high price at the deadline, but they should expect that because we're going to force teams to pay a high price right now and we've already forced 2 teams to pay high prices.

 

You said yourself you're not willing to punish a team for not putting a good deal on paper now. Stating that you will do that and then being unwilling to do that doesn't seem like a very skilled negotiation tactic to me. If they held onto McCutchen, found themselves 1 game back of the Cubs, and decided to move Meadows in June, you wouldn't say no to that and neither would I.

Do you believe they are offering Meadows today? I don't think they are.

 

I didn't say I was unwilling to do it, I've just said I'm not sure whether I would walk away from a deal that I wanted to make simply because it was the same deal I was offered and passed on, prior to being forced to take on additional risk.

 

There are all sorts of moving parts here. There is virtually ZERO chance that all things will be the same in June/July as they are now. Ultimately, we need to make deals that benefit the organization, as you mentioned earlier.

 

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

Freese and Jaso are old veterans, neither of whom is very good.

Bell was very productive for the major league team last year. He was a top prospect, so he has the pedigree. They are trying to win, so why would they give that up? Asking for them to include Bell is as pointless and trade-killing as asking for Mookie Betts was last July (okay, not as silly as asking for Betts, but it's the same problem).

Or dare I use another analogy - as pointless as including Trayce in a trade for Frazier, when you had no center fielder to replace him (yes, Bell is better and has the pedigree Trayce lacked; and the Pirates have some sort of backup; but it's just not a move a contender will make).

 

 

Pirates can't get him without one of Bell or Meadows IMO.

[OmarComing25]

And the Sox may have waited a bit too long to be reasonable in a Sale trade. We'll never know for certain but I think the Sox could've landed Benintendi + Moncada if they weren't so busy being hardheaded about the Red Sox meeting their price with Mookie Betts. Perhaps a lesson they should learn with Quintana.

I don't think there was any chance at all both Benintendi and Moncada would have been in play no matter how well the Sox negotiated. I think we did about as well as we could have with Sale.

[Y2Jimmy0]

If Glasnow + Newman ++ is the best deal right now then the Sox should keep Q into the season. Newman is very good but isn't really the type of headlining position player the Sox need. I'd wait if this is the best the Pirates will do.

[Con te Giolito]

Do you believe they are offering Meadows today? I don't think they are.

Eh, I think its distinctly possible that one of Bell or Meadows is firmly on the table and the issue holding things up is Glasnow. I'm not sure the Pirates or White Sox really want him, so the Pirates are attempting to cash-in his value now while they can in pursuit of Quintana while the White Sox are either refusing Glasnow or trying to pawn him off on a third team (HELLO YANKEES, a team that on paper could really use a top farm arm).

[Con te Giolito]

I don't think there was any chance at all both Benintendi and Moncada would have been in play no matter how well the Sox negotiated. I think we did about as well as we could have with Sale.

Like I said we'll never know exactly what Boston could've parted with for a chance at getting a stud arm for Papi's last run with the team. But the Sox should not have been demanding Betts or even Bradley Jr. at the deadline, that much is clear.

[TheFutureIsNear]

Eh, I think its distinctly possible that one of Bell or Meadows is firmly on the table and the issue holding things up is Glasnow. I'm not sure the Pirates or White Sox really want him, so the Pirates are attempting to cash-in his value now while they can in pursuit of Quintana while the White Sox are either refusing Glasnow or trying to pawn him off on a third team (HELLO YANKEES, a team that on paper could really use a top farm arm).

 

Unless he's injured I seriously doubt Glasnow's stock is that down. I think you're way overreacting to a small sample size when he was getting his 1st taste of big league action and most innings pitched in a year at the same time. And even with his struggles and "down" stuff he still K'd a batter per inning. A team wanting nothing to do with Tyler Glasnow is actually a pretty ridiculous notion.

Not to mention the Yankees have plenty of arms in their system already...Sheffield, Acevedo, Kaprelian, Adams, Tate, and Abreu is actually pretty impressive, not many teams with 6 arms like that and at least 4 of them will probably be in AA next year.

[Balta1701]

Unless he's injured I seriously doubt Glasnow's stock is that down. I think you're way overreacting to a small sample size when he was getting his 1st taste of big league action and most innings pitched in a year at the same time. And even with his struggles and "down" stuff he still K'd a batter per inning. A team wanting nothing to do with Tyler Glasnow is actually a pretty ridiculous notion.

Not to mention the Yankees have plenty of arms in their system already...Sheffield, Acevedo, Kaprelian, Adams, Tate, and Abreu is actually pretty impressive, not many teams with 6 arms like that and at least 4 of them will probably be in AA next year.

The worry with Glasnow remains control. His stuff is serious, his K-rate is serious, but he has one truly substantial issue in that he has more 1 walk every 2 innings or more at basically every one of his minor league stops. That's comparable to Fulmer last year or Rodon as a rookie and almost 3 times the rate of Chris Sale. There's no reason for me to say that he can't improve upon that, but that's because I'm not a major league scout. What I will say is that if you're down on him, it's because your organization believes he will struggle to make progress on that issue. So, there is reason to at least be hesitant on him, if you think that is a problem you can't solve. If you think that's a problem you can solve, go for it.

[BlackSox13]

The worry with Glasnow remains control. His stuff is serious, his K-rate is serious, but he has one truly substantial issue in that he has more 1 walk every 2 innings or more at basically every one of his minor league stops. That's comparable to Fulmer last year or Rodon as a rookie and almost 3 times the rate of Chris Sale. There's no reason for me to say that he can't improve upon that, but that's because I'm not a major league scout. What I will say is that if you're down on him, it's because your organization believes he will struggle to make progress on that issue. So, there is reason to at least be hesitant on him, if you think that is a problem you can't solve. If you think that's a problem you can solve, go for it.

Add Giolito and Kopech to the list of pitchers with walk issues. That's what I don't understand why people are down on Glasnow due to his walk rates when we've already been through it with Rodon, going through it now with Fulmer, Giolito had problems in his pro debut and Kopech had problems in the minors.

 

Heck, my concern isn't over Glasnow's walk rates, it more about getting a few solid hitting prospects in any trade for Q. For me, one of Bell or Meadows has to be in the deal with Glasnow.