Quintana Rumors: Round and round and round we go

[KMule2545]

The Sox aren't trading Quintana to Astros without getting Tucker back IMO. I personally think this is just posturing so Luhnow can eventually tell Hahn "fine, fine, I can't give you Bregman but I can do something with Tucker". At some point I see this trade getting done. Given their situation, a TOR starter is just too valuable to pass on over a prospect 2+ years out.

 

I agree. There is no way in the world Q will be an Astro without Bregman or Tucker. 0 chance. If they're stance on that is hard Q will be going to a different team.

[kwill]

The Sox aren't trading Quintana to Astros without getting Tucker back IMO. I personally think this is just posturing so Luhnow can eventually tell Hahn "fine, fine, I can't give you Bregman but I can do something with Tucker". At some point I see this trade getting done. Given their situation, a TOR starter is just too valuable to pass on over a prospect 2+ years out.

 

I tend to agree but if this really their stance than screw them. The great thing about this rebuild is that you don't have to trade Quintana now. We can keep him and trade him at the deadline. If you don't think team will be all over a controllable Ace at the deadline, you need to look back at the past deadlines what teams have given up.

 

I don't think the Astros win their division if they don't add another arm.

[Chicago White Sox]

I'm with iamshack, f*** Houston. Sounds like they really don't want to get a TOR starter. Guarantee Tampa would require Tucker for Archer as well. Maybe it's posturing on guys teams are asking for in deal or maybe it's prospect hoarding. They could have the '27 Yankees lineup and still fall short late in the year with that pitching. Good luck selling that to your fanbase, Luhnow.

Give it some time. Luhnow can't be this stupid. He is a TOR starter away from having a complete roster and I'm sure the Red Sox getting Sale puts pressure on him to fill this last major hole. While I'm certain he won't move Bregman at this point, I just can't see the logic of making Tucker an untouchable. He's too far out to be considered a key part of this young core that has a four year window. Quintana just makes too much sense for them IMO. Right now I think it's simply posturing on both sides and Hahn has much less pressure to budge first after making some incredible trades already.

[NCsoxfan]

Houston saying that Tucker is nearly untouchable.

 

Complete BS. Tucker isn't an elite top 10 prospect yet. This whole "untouchable" phrase has gotten laughable this winter

[caulfield12]

Tucker, the fifth overall pick in last year's draft, batted .276 with six home runs, 19 doubles and a .750 OPS and 31 stolen bases in 101 games with Quad Cities (before his promotion to Lancaster late in the season). Baseball America regarded Tucker as the industry's 35th-best prospect in its recent mid-season rankings.

 

chron.com/sports

 

 

He sucks, lol! But, because he has a pretty (and projectable) left-handed swing but limited power (so far), he's nearly untouchable.

Edited December 9, 2016 by caulfield12

[iamshack]

Give it some time. Luhnow can't be this stupid. He is a TOR starter away from having a complete roster and I'm sure the Red Sox getting Sale puts pressure on him to fill this last major hole. While I'm certain he won't move Bregman at this point, I just can't see the logic of making Tucker an untouchable. He's too far out to be considered a key part of this young core that has a four year window. Quintana just makes too much sense for them IMO. Right now I think it's simply posturing on both sides and Hahn has much less pressure to budge first after making some incredible trades already.

Been watching videos of Martes.

 

So are we still thinking Martes/Tucker/Reed?

 

How do you guys feel about Martes moving forward? #2-3 starter?

[KMule2545]

Tucker, the fifth overall pick in last year's draft, batted .276 with six home runs, 19 doubles and a .750 OPS and 31 stolen bases in 101 games with Quad Cities (before his promotion to Lancaster late in the season). Baseball America regarded Tucker as the industry's 35th-best prospect in its recent mid-season rankings.

 

chron.com/sports

 

 

He sucks, lol! But, because he has a pretty (and projectable) left-handed swing but limited power (so far), he's nearly untouchable.

 

I know I'm getting the reputation as a Kyle Tucker fan boy, but i can't help it lol. His overall line on the year was .285/.360/.438/.798 at age 19 with 9 HR/69 RBI/32 SB/81K in 117 games - a bit better than his stats at just Lancaster. With that swing and his hit tool and his body, the power most likely will develop. For every one player who has in-game power at such a young age, two players won't develop power until their early to mid twenties.

 

That being said, no way in hell a 19 year old guy in A ball should be considered untouchable for a player like Quintana by a team trying to win now. Bregman I can understand being truly untouchable because his loss would affect the curent team. Get real, Houston.

[KMule2545]

Been watching videos of Martes.

 

So are we still thinking Martes/Tucker/Reed?

 

How do you guys feel about Martes moving forward? #2-3 starter?

 

Definitely Martes/Tucker/Reed if they move off the untouchable crap on Martes and Tucker. No deal if they don't get off it.

 

That projection sounds about right.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

Been watching videos of Martes.

 

So are we still thinking Martes/Tucker/Reed?

 

How do you guys feel about Martes moving forward? #2-3 starter?

I think that's the deal if a trade happens. They're also looking for a left-handed reliever, so I could Jennings being added to the deal with a lesser piece coming back our way. Their system is so deep that we get a really interesting prospect outside their top 10. As for Martes, he definitely has #2 upside. Obviously you never know pitching prospects, but adding him to a group that always includes Giolito, Kopech, Lopez, Fulmer, Adams, Hansen, & Stephens would be incredible.

[heirdog]

I know I'm getting the reputation as a Kyle Tucker fan boy, but i can't help it lol. His overall line on the year was .285/.360/.438/.798 at age 19 with 9 HR/69 RBI/32 SB/81K in 117 games - a bit better than his stats at just Lancaster. With that swing and his hit tool and his body, the power most likely will develop. For every one player who has in-game power at such a young age, two players won't develop power until their early to mid twenties.

 

That being said, no way in hell a 19 year old guy in A ball should be considered untouchable for a player like Quintana by a team trying to win now. Bregman I can understand being truly untouchable because his loss would affect the curent team. Get real, Houston.

 

I'm having visions of Jeremy Reed and Ryan Sweeney right now...

Edited December 9, 2016 by heirdog

[caulfield12]

Have a feeling that Quintana might end up being traded in June/July instead.

 

Perhaps Hahn/KW will set out to find takers for Frazier and Cabrera first. Maybe Jennings, with the right offer.

 

It's also obvious they hope to see rebounds from Robertson, Abreu, Lawrie and Garcia before moving them, not to mention Petricka/Putnam.

 

 

Jones could go either way. Most seem to prefer trading Robertson first, then building up Jones' value by installing him as closer sometime between June and the beginning of August. Probably would mean holding onto Jones into the 2017-18 offseason, but lots of variables there in terms of performance for both guys. Not to mention the upcoming decision about what to do with Burdi for 2017.

[witesoxfan]

I'm having visions of Jeremy Reed and Ryan Sweeney right now...

 

Guys from 15 years ago? Should you never trade for any highly thought of prospect? I've seen comparisons of Moncada to BJ/Melvin Upton and Byron Buxton, and that still excites the hell out of me. Upton was disappointing for his expectations and Buxton has been the same. They can still add a ton of value and are (possibly) very good players.

 

Kyle Tucker would be a great get.

[witesoxfan]

Have a feeling that Quintana might end up being traded in June/July instead.

 

Perhaps Hahn/KW will set out to find takers for Frazier and Cabrera first. Maybe Jennings, with the right offer.

 

It's also obvious they hope to see rebounds from Robertson, Abreu, Lawrie and Garcia before moving them, not to mention Petricka/Putnam.

 

 

Jones could go either way. Most seem to prefer trading Robertson first, then building up Jones' value by installing him as closer sometime between June and the beginning of August. Probably would mean holding onto Jones into the 2017-18 offseason, but lots of variables there in terms of performance for both guys. Not to mention the upcoming decision about what to do with Burdi for 2017.

 

I will make a $1 bet that Robertson is no longer a member of the organization come February. I will make another $1 bet that it's to Washington.

[Panerista]

I'm happy with the progress, but more pieces should be moved. I feel like peak Quintana value would be next July or Dec of next year

[heirdog]

I'd give Quintana, Robertson and Frazier a 0% chance of being w the White Sox at spring training. There's been too much discussion and they are too far along in discussions for some team not to blink. Abreu likely stays until July to regain his value. Nate Jones stays simply to up his value as our closer. Those two might be with the Sox all of next year unless we get overwhelmed at the deadline. Melky, Jennings and limited interest guys will get shipped as soon as someone gives a viable piece either before the season or at the deadline.

[Panerista]

I'd give Quintana, Robertson and Frazier a 0% chance of being w the White Sox at spring training. There's been too much discussion and they are too far along in discussions for some team not to blink. Abreu likely stays until July to regain his value. Nate Jones stays simply to up his value as our closer. Those two might be with the Sox all of next year unless we get overwhelmed at the deadline. Melky, Jennings and limited interest guys will get shipped as soon as someone gives a viable piece either before the season or at the deadline.

Q 40%

Robertson 50%

Frazier 10%

 

Have to move Frazier to a team that can't see past his power numbers

[beautox]

Definitely Martes/Tucker/Reed if they move off the untouchable crap on Martes and Tucker. No deal if they don't get off it.

 

That projection sounds about right.

That is incredibly light of a return. Quintana has about 128m in surplus value. Bregman even as the #1 top prospect in the game is only worth about 73.5 in surplus value. If Houston doesn't want to include him then tell them to look forward to going out in the first round in October. Top prospect hitters are worth significantly more than their pitching counter parts. Quintana is worth just going by the point of pittsburgh value Bregman - 73.5, Tucker - 38.2, Paulino - 16.5 = 128.2 compare that to say a rockies package of Rodgers - 73.5, Pint - 29.8 & Tapia - 22.4 = 125.7 and you possibly get a throw in as well like Freeland.

[heirdog]

Guys from 15 years ago? Should you never trade for any highly thought of prospect? I've seen comparisons of Moncada to BJ/Melvin Upton and Byron Buxton, and that still excites the hell out of me. Upton was disappointing for his expectations and Buxton has been the same. They can still add a ton of value and are (possibly) very good players.

 

Kyle Tucker would be a great get.

 

I think I came across ineffectively. I agree with you and would love to have Tucker. It was just something about those stats and the description of sweet swinging lefties whose power would develop which reminded me of reed and Sweeney and how I waited for that to happen even after their trades.

[ChiSox1917]

That is incredibly light of a return. Quintana has about 128m in surplus value. Bregman even as the #1 top prospect in the game is only worth about 73.5 in surplus value. If Houston doesn't want to include him then tell them to look forward to going out in the first round in October. Top prospect hitters are worth significantly more than their pitching counter parts. Quintana is worth just going by the point of pittsburgh value Bregman - 73.5, Tucker - 38.2, Paulino - 16.5 = 128.2 compare that to say a rockies package of Rodgers - 73.5, Pint - 29.8 & Tapia - 22.4 = 125.7 and you possibly get a throw in as well like Freeland.

 

AJ Reed was the #11 prospect going into 2016 per BA. So that's a $62m value right there based on whatever this pittsburgh value thing is. So a Reed/Tucker/Martes package may be worth more than Quintana based on this silly analysis.

[Quin]

I think somehow in the end, Hahn gets Bregman if he deals with the Astros. Would likely be a Q+ deal for Bregman+, but Hahn just pulled off Moncada and Giolito. I don't think anyone expected the Red Sox to part with Moncada or the Nats to give up Giolito for Eaton.

 

Hahn upped Quintana's trade value by sending him to the Red Sox, because it means other teams really have to step up to go after them.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

AJ Reed was the #11 prospect going into 2016 per BA. So that's a $62m value right there based on whatever this pittsburgh value thing is. So a Reed/Tucker/Martes package may be worth more than Quintana based on this silly analysis.

 

Right, but he isn't now. Sickels had him ranked #31 in baseball after the minor league season ended. So now you are talking $38.2M.

 

Using the package I keep harping on.... (And Sickles top 100 rankings)

 

Martes - #19 - $39M

Reed - #31 - $38.2M

Tucker - #46 - $38.2M

Stubbs - NA - Let's just call him $10M?

 

That package right there gives the Sox $125M in surplus value. If Quintana offers $128M in surplus value....well, then I think that's a real fair trade.

Edited December 9, 2016 by ChiliIrishHammock24

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I think somehow in the end, Hahn gets Bregman if he deals with the Astros. Would likely be a Q+ deal for Bregman+, but Hahn just pulled off Moncada and Giolito. I don't think anyone expected the Red Sox to part with Moncada or the Nats to give up Giolito for Eaton.

 

Hahn upped Quintana's trade value by sending him to the Red Sox, because it means other teams really have to step up to go after them.

 

I tend to agree. Let's just assume Hahn was torn between the Red Sox package for Sale, or the Nationals. Maybe one consideration was that if the Astros consider themselves a playoff team, one team they might have to go through is Boston. By sending Sale to Boston, Hahn strengthened a potential Astros opponent. How can the Astros counter? By adding the next best available pitcher to negate some of the that added value. Who owns that pitcher? The same guy who provided Red Sox with the boost in the first place.

 

It's like an arms dealer who is selling guns to both sides of a war. He's biting off both ends.

[Quin]

I tend to agree. Let's just assume Hahn was torn between the Red Sox package for Sale, or the Nationals. Maybe one consideration was that if the Astros consider themselves a playoff team, one team they might have to go through is Boston. By sending Sale to Boston, Hahn strengthened a potential Astros opponent. How can the Astros counter? By adding the next best available pitcher to negate some of the that added value. Who owns that pitcher? The same guy who provided Red Sox with the boost in the first place.

 

It's like an arms dealer who is selling guns to both sides of a war. He's biting off both ends.

 

It also makes the Yankees need an arm like Q even more.

 

He raises both of their needs for Q and can get them to bid.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

It also makes the Yankees need an arm like Q even more.

 

He raises both of their needs for Q and can get them to bid.

 

Yeah, true. I just didn't include them because rumors are they want to keep their huge swath of prospects, but who knows, they just signed Chapman, might as well go for it all now while his arm still works.

 

And I LOVE the idea of them cutting Q lose, only to end up having to turn over someone like Gleyber Torres and others in a trade years later.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

I think somehow in the end, Hahn gets Bregman if he deals with the Astros. Would likely be a Q+ deal for Bregman+, but Hahn just pulled off Moncada and Giolito. I don't think anyone expected the Red Sox to part with Moncada or the Nats to give up Giolito for Eaton.

 

Hahn upped Quintana's trade value by sending him to the Red Sox, because it means other teams really have to step up to go after them.

 

 

Must be why the Astros are balking at the trade? If Hahn gets Bregman, that'd be incredible