Quintana Rumors: Round and round and round we go

[kwill]

Does anybody know, did Hahn go on the ESPN 1000. Any new tidbits?

[steveno89]

I want Reed, Martes, Tucker and Fisher for Q. I think that's fair value for both sides.

 

Anything more than Martes, Reed and Tucker would be a big overpay for Houston

 

Reed would likely still be a top #75 prospect right now if ranked

 

We can ask for Reed/Martes/Tucker/Fisher, but no team will gut their farm to that extent

[striker]

Anything more than Martes, Reed and Tucker would be a big overpay for Houston

 

Reed would likely still be a top #75 prospect right now if ranked

 

We can ask for Reed/Martes/Tucker/Fisher, but no team will gut their farm to that extent

Rangers pretty much gutted their minors for Beltran and Lucroy.

[steveno89]

Rangers pretty much gutted their minors for Beltran and Lucroy.

 

Rangers also acquired Jeffress along with Lucroy, and when you consider that it does not make the trade look all that bad of Brinson + Ortiz + TBD

 

The return for Quintana should be very similar to Sale given the 4th year of cheap control

 

We received 2 elite prospects in Moncada and Kopech (top 30) + a "B" prospect in Basabe (top 200?) + lottery ticket in Diaz

 

Lets say Kopech and Martes have equal value right now relatively speaking as a second piece

 

The drop off from Moncada to Tucker is considerable, to the point where the third player in the deal would have to be of higher quality than Basabe (Reed/Fisher/Paulino) + a lottery ticket in the bottom of a team's system

 

Teoscar Hernandez reminds me of Luis Basabe, but further along in his development.

 

Houston likely won't want to pay the prospect price it will take to land Q, even if they really should consider it strongly

[Bob Sacamano]

Rangers also acquired Jeffress along with Lucroy, and when you consider that it does not make the trade look all that bad of Brinson + Ortiz + TBD

 

The return for Quintana should be very similar to Sale given the 4th year of cheap control

 

We received 2 elite prospects in Moncada and Kopech (top 30) + a "B" prospect in Basabe (top 200?) + lottery ticket in Diaz

 

Lets say Kopech and Martes have equal value right now relatively speaking as a second piece

 

The drop off from Moncada to Tucker is considerable, to the point where the third player in the deal would have to be of higher quality than Basabe (Reed/Fisher/Paulino) + a lottery ticket in the bottom of a team's system

 

Teoscar Hernandez reminds me of Luis Basabe, but further along in his development.

 

Houston likely won't want to pay the prospect price it will take to land Q, even if they really should consider it strongly

 

I actually like Teoscar Hernandez myself. If he is in a potential deal, he could easily start at the major league level next year.

[TheFutureIsNear]

Why should the White Sox settle for less? They don't have to trade Quintana unless they are getting outstanding value for him

 

The drop off from Tucker to Cameron is significant. Heck the drop off from Tucker to Fisher is significant as well.

 

Why are you assuming that all 3 were ever in a deal though? We aren't going to get all 3 of Martes, Reed, and Tucker. The deal would have been made already. Given all of the pitching we've already received I'd be just fine with starting the deal at Tucker and Reed. The 3rd prospect would have to be pretty good though given neither Tucker or Reed are great headliners. David Paulino is a name that still seems expendable to them and would just be fun to add another power arm to the stable. Maybe not "95%", but I think Tucker, Reed, and Paulino isn't too far off from Moncada, Kopech, and Basabe. Obviously trying to recreate a headliner like Moncada is impossible and everything else will seem to fall short, but I really like Tucker. I think in 3-4 years he could be hitting .300 /.350/.450 with 15-20 hr's and 25-30 steals. His glove and athleticism are both good and as of right now he's still being projected in CF.

 

Kyle Tucker, AJ Reed, David Paulino and Gilberto Celestino. I'd take that for Q. I know Reed isn't on many lists anymore but or all intents and purposes that's 3 top 75 prospects and a recent fairly large international signing.

[NCsoxfan]

Why are you assuming that all 3 were ever in a deal though? We aren't going to get all 3 of Martes, Reed, and Tucker. The deal would have been made already. Given all of the pitching we've already received I'd be just fine with starting the deal at Tucker and Reed. The 3rd prospect would have to be pretty good though given neither Tucker or Reed are great headliners. David Paulino is a name that still seems expendable to them and would just be fun to add another power arm to the stable. Maybe not "95%", but I think Tucker, Reed, and Paulino isn't too far off from Moncada, Kopech, and Basabe. Obviously trying to recreate a headliner like Moncada is impossible and everything else will seem to fall short, but I really like Tucker. I think in 3-4 years he could be hitting .300 /.350/.450 with 15-20 hr's and 25-30 steals. His glove and athleticism are both good and as of right now he's still being projected in CF.

 

Kyle Tucker, AJ Reed, David Paulino and Gilberto Celestino. I'd take that for Q. I know Reed isn't on many lists anymore but or all intents and purposes that's 3 top 75 prospects and a recent fairly large international signing.

 

I think the only way Q is deal is if all three are involved. Unlike the Nats & Red Sox, they don't have a top 10 prospect if you exclude Bregman. Martes/Tucker are both top 50 guys, but you need AT LEAST both of them to start a conversation of dealing Q. Like the Fangraphs article said, Q's value is very close to Sale's.

 

Your analysis just far undervalues Q, IMO.

Edited December 9, 2016 by NCsoxfan

[FT35]

Just a quick comp:

 

Player A:

208 innings, 3.20 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 181 K's, Salary, Aprox 5M/yr

Player B:

230 innings, 3.99 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 228 K's, Salary $30M/yr

 

Player A is Q, and Player B is David Price. Now...my comp isn't to say that they are so similar--Price is more overpowering...but my point is to take a look at the cost to obtain a true ace of this caliber. The main numbers aren't THAT far apart. Most of Q's value comes in to play when teams can add a TOP of the line pitcher for minimal cost--then still have the $ to go buy a major FA. That's why I think Hahn should hold out on Bregman with Houston or for the top prospect for any other team. Getting Q at his current salary is like having a free David Price--then still being able to go out and buy ANOTHER David Price at market value. Trading for Q enables that 2-fold move--and for teams looking to win now, that's the type of move that puts your team over the top. Moves that put your team over the top these days cost you your top prospect.

 

Kudos to Hahn for not settling--and I don't think he will on Q. With as many years left on his contract and as quiet as he is--Hahn could keep him at this value and have him for when our team is ready to make a run in 2-3 years.

 

Quintana

Giolito

Rodon

Lopez

Kopech

 

(Fulmer? Dunning? Burdi? Hensen? They seem to be relievers now, but sometimes that can change). Plus we can add a couple more TOP draft picks in there from what we're likely to have over the next couple of years).

 

That's not a bad starting 5 as a "consequence" for not getting a Quintana deal done. That's almost worth Houston's best interest to break up now while they have the chance! Because if they don't--their window to win is slim--that is until this 5-some starts to come of age. The pressure is certainly more on Houston to get a deal done. They should trade for Q and have him locked up for years, then use their savings to sign Turner/Encarnicion to fill Bregman's spot--and they would still have $ left to add. Just my opinion.

[steveno89]

Why are you assuming that all 3 were ever in a deal though? We aren't going to get all 3 of Martes, Reed, and Tucker. The deal would have been made already. Given all of the pitching we've already received I'd be just fine with starting the deal at Tucker and Reed. The 3rd prospect would have to be pretty good though given neither Tucker or Reed are great headliners. David Paulino is a name that still seems expendable to them and would just be fun to add another power arm to the stable. Maybe not "95%", but I think Tucker, Reed, and Paulino isn't too far off from Moncada, Kopech, and Basabe. Obviously trying to recreate a headliner like Moncada is impossible and everything else will seem to fall short, but I really like Tucker. I think in 3-4 years he could be hitting .300 /.350/.450 with 15-20 hr's and 25-30 steals. His glove and athleticism are both good and as of right now he's still being projected in CF.

 

Kyle Tucker, AJ Reed, David Paulino and Gilberto Celestino. I'd take that for Q. I know Reed isn't on many lists anymore but or all intents and purposes that's 3 top 75 prospects and a recent fairly large international signing.

 

I don't like a:

 

Tucker/Reed/Paulino/Celestino deal enough to move Quintana

 

For all intents and purposes Quintana and Sale have nearly identical value given the 4th year of control

 

How do we go from getting (2) top 30 prospects to now having Tucker be a centerpiece? Not enough value coming back to the Sox and Tucker is far from a sure bet

 

Martes and Tucker would have to centerpiece a Q deal + a third piece along the lines of Reed/Fisher to round the deal out. Any less and I would not be motivated to trade him

[steveno89]

Just a quick comp:

 

Player A:

208 innings, 3.20 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 181 K's, Salary, Aprox 5M/yr

Player B:

230 innings, 3.99 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 228 K's, Salary $30M/yr

 

Player A is Q, and Player B is David Price. Now...my comp isn't to say that they are so similar--Price is more overpowering...but my point is to take a look at the cost to obtain a true ace of this caliber. The main numbers aren't THAT far apart. Most of Q's value comes in to play when teams can add a TOP of the line pitcher for minimal cost--then still have the $ to go buy a major FA. That's why I think Hahn should hold out on Bregman with Houston or for the top prospect for any other team. Getting Q at his current salary is like having a free David Price--then still being able to go out and buy ANOTHER David Price at market value. Trading for Q enables that 2-fold move--and for teams looking to win now, that's the type of move that puts your team over the top. Moves that put your team over the top these days cost you your top prospect.

 

Kudos to Hahn for not settling--and I don't think he will on Q. With as many years left on his contract and as quiet as he is--Hahn could keep him at this value and have him for when our team is ready to make a run in 2-3 years.

 

Quintana

Giolito

Rodon

Lopez

Kopech

 

(Fulmer? Dunning? Burdi? Hensen? They seem to be relievers now, but sometimes that can change). Plus we can add a couple more TOP draft picks in there from what we're likely to have over the next couple of years).

 

That's not a bad starting 5 as a "consequence" for not getting a Quintana deal done. That's almost worth Houston's best interest to break up now while they have the chance! Because if they don't--their window to win is slim--that is until this 5-some starts to come of age. The pressure is certainly more on Houston to get a deal done. They should trade for Q and have him locked up for years, then use their savings to sign Turner/Encarnicion to fill Bregman's spot--and they would still have $ left to add. Just my opinion.

 

Houston won't and should not trade Bregman for Quintana or Sale

 

Swapping him for Quintana helps your pitching, but equally hurts your offense as well

 

I'm not 100% against keeping Quintana, but I feel like the best time to move him is right now with no other quality options on the market (Jason Hammel...yikes)

 

Asking for Bregman is unrealistic, but Martes/Tucker/Reed is a package I could see Houston eventually caving on. Hell ask for Stubbs on the back end as well to round it out.

[GGajewski18]

Quintana

Giolito

Rodon

Lopez

Kopech

 

(Fulmer? Dunning? Burdi? Hensen? They seem to be relievers now, but sometimes that can change). Plus we can add a couple more TOP draft picks in there from what we're likely to have over the next couple of years).

 

How can you already designate Hansen, Dunning, and Fulmer as relievers? They have done nothing but start in the minors. Fulmer was great towards the end of the season in AAA too.

[he gone.]

I love Bregman, but if they weren't willing to budge on Sale for him, then Q ain't getting him either. Maybe on a one for one, but I'm not sure anybody wins that deal.

 

I'd like to maybe wrestle Reed away from them - I'm just not sure we have anything left that matches up. They don't have a need for Frazier or Melky. Robertson is too expensive for them. Jones could make sense, but you can say that about every team.

 

 

I hate to say it, but I'm not sure they matchup well with us when you take away Bregman from the deals.

[harfman77]

Houston won't and should not trade Bregman for Quintana or Sale

 

Swapping him for Quintana helps your pitching, but equally hurts your offense as well

 

I'm not 100% against keeping Quintana, but I feel like the best time to move him is right now with no other quality options on the market (Jason Hammel...yikes)

 

Asking for Bregman is unrealistic, but Martes/Tucker/Reed is a package I could see Houston eventually caving on. Hell ask for Stubbs on the back end as well to round it out.

 

Where are they going to play Bregman, especially if they bring in EE?

 

C - Stassi/McCann

1B - EE/McCann

2B - Altuve

SS - Correa

3B - Gurriel

LF - Beltran/Aoki

CF - Springer/Marisnik

RF - Reddick

DH - Gattis/EE/Beltran

 

I get them wanting to hold on to him, but I am not sure where he is making an impact in that lineup.

 

I am not a fan of getting Bregman, I feel he is being immensely overvalued for a SSS of production, I felt the same way about Turner. I would rather have quantity of quality rather than value wrapped up into fewer players.

[Baron]

So why are people up in arms with the Astros? I read that guys Twitter...it looks like he's just saying Major League players. He was including Martes in his trade proposals.

[steveno89]

I love Bregman, but if they weren't willing to budge on Sale for him, then Q ain't getting him either. Maybe on a one for one, but I'm not sure anybody wins that deal.

 

I'd like to maybe wrestle Reed away from them - I'm just not sure we have anything left that matches up. They don't have a need for Frazier or Melky. Robertson is too expensive for them. Jones could make sense, but you can say that about every team.

 

 

I hate to say it, but I'm not sure they matchup well with us when you take away Bregman from the deals.

 

They certainly can match up, but they need to stop calling players like Martes and Tucker "untouchable".

[steveno89]

Where are they going to play Bregman, especially if they bring in EE?

 

C - Stassi/McCann

1B - EE/McCann

2B - Altuve

SS - Correa

3B - Gurriel

LF - Beltran/Aoki

CF - Springer/Marisnik

RF - Reddick

DH - Gattis/EE/Beltran

 

I get them wanting to hold on to him, but I am not sure where he is making an impact in that lineup.

 

I am not a fan of getting Bregman, I feel he is being immensely overvalued for a SSS of production, I felt the same way about Turner. I would rather have quantity of quality rather than value wrapped up into fewer players.

 

Bregman is way better than Gurriel and would start at 3B

 

Gurriel goes to the bench

[GGajewski18]

From Keith Law Chat

 

Mike: Astros have to make a deal for Quintana at this point no? Assuming the rays aren't trading archer there isn't another option that keeps them on their current plan. Seems like the perfect scenario for Hahn to strike gold again.

 

Law: It's the ideal fit if they can agree on a price. If I'm Hahn, I'm focused on the bigger prospects, but definitely hoping to snag AJ Reed in the deal too.

[GGajewski18]

From Keith Law Chat

 

Mike: Astros have to make a deal for Quintana at this point no? Assuming the rays aren't trading archer there isn't another option that keeps them on their current plan. Seems like the perfect scenario for Hahn to strike gold again.

 

Law: It's the ideal fit if they can agree on a price. If I'm Hahn, I'm focused on the bigger prospects, but definitely hoping to snag AJ Reed in the deal too.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

From Keith Law Chat

 

Mike: Astros have to make a deal for Quintana at this point no? Assuming the rays aren't trading archer there isn't another option that keeps them on their current plan. Seems like the perfect scenario for Hahn to strike gold again.

 

Law: It's the ideal fit if they can agree on a price. If I'm Hahn, I'm focused on the bigger prospects, but definitely hoping to snag AJ Reed in the deal too.

[bmags]

That's adorable, guys.

[SoxSteve]

From Keith Law Chat

 

Mike: Astros have to make a deal for Quintana at this point no? Assuming the rays aren't trading archer there isn't another option that keeps them on their current plan. Seems like the perfect scenario for Hahn to strike gold again.

 

Law: It's the ideal fit if they can agree on a price. If I'm Hahn, I'm focused on the bigger prospects, but definitely hoping to snag AJ Reed in the deal too.

Maybe they have to do a 3 way deal with a Colorado or Houston and get like a Blackmon or Springer with a couple good prospects and then send one of those guys to team 3 for a couple of their good prospects. Kinda like the Frazier deal but with better players. Just thinking out loud.

[harfman77]

Bregman is way better than Gurriel and would start at 3B

 

Gurriel goes to the bench

 

No. Gurriel is an eliter hitter and put up similar numbers to Bregman in a similar number of games despite never playing American professional baseball before. The Astros had Bregma in the fold when they decided to go out and get Gurriel as an upgrade at the position. No way Lunhow gets away with paying that guy $50M to sit on the bench.

 

To me, its more likely that Bregman ends up in the Zobrist super utility role and plays a bunch of LF.

[steveno89]

That's adorable, guys.

 

I'm calling a Martes/Tucker/Reed deal happening this offseason now. If you can get Stubbs on the back end even better.

 

Houston is absolutely in win now and there is no pitcher on Quintana's level out there that will be traded. I think Gray and Archer stay put

[Bob Sacamano]

Just a quick comp:

 

Player A:

208 innings, 3.20 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 181 K's, Salary, Aprox 5M/yr

Player B:

230 innings, 3.99 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 228 K's, Salary $30M/yr

 

Player A is Q, and Player B is David Price. Now...my comp isn't to say that they are so similar--Price is more overpowering...but my point is to take a look at the cost to obtain a true ace of this caliber. The main numbers aren't THAT far apart. Most of Q's value comes in to play when teams can add a TOP of the line pitcher for minimal cost--then still have the $ to go buy a major FA. That's why I think Hahn should hold out on Bregman with Houston or for the top prospect for any other team. Getting Q at his current salary is like having a free David Price--then still being able to go out and buy ANOTHER David Price at market value. Trading for Q enables that 2-fold move--and for teams looking to win now, that's the type of move that puts your team over the top. Moves that put your team over the top these days cost you your top prospect.

 

Kudos to Hahn for not settling--and I don't think he will on Q. With as many years left on his contract and as quiet as he is--Hahn could keep him at this value and have him for when our team is ready to make a run in 2-3 years.

 

Quintana

Giolito

Rodon

Lopez

Kopech

 

(Fulmer? Dunning? Burdi? Hensen? They seem to be relievers now, but sometimes that can change). Plus we can add a couple more TOP draft picks in there from what we're likely to have over the next couple of years).

 

That's not a bad starting 5 as a "consequence" for not getting a Quintana deal done. That's almost worth Houston's best interest to break up now while they have the chance! Because if they don't--their window to win is slim--that is until this 5-some starts to come of age. The pressure is certainly more on Houston to get a deal done. They should trade for Q and have him locked up for years, then use their savings to sign Turner/Encarnicion to fill Bregman's spot--and they would still have $ left to add. Just my opinion.

 

Huh? Burdi is definitely a reliever. Whichever other guys can't figure it out as a starter at the big league level will end up in the pen. With a lot of depth too, they can move arms for bats (like prospect for prospect type swaps later on).

[bmags]

The astros haven't been tied to EE in a week, not sure its worth wondering their contingency plans for something that isn't likely.