Quintana Rumors: Round and round and round we go

[caulfield12]

He's not going to end up in CF in all likelihood as he fills out...from the one game I saw him in person, he's definitely impressive and has the swagger of a first round draft pick, but that can erode very quickly in AA.

 

Probably better off holding out for THE #1 piece in a deal they're targeting, unless that happens to really be Tucker despite his ETA and they can also jam Reed into the deal...so their scouts would have to make that determination.

 

Early season injuries (or spring training) or trade deadline pressures will also provide the Sox leverage. Of course, he could get hurt in the WBC if you hold onto him, too.

Edited December 12, 2016 by caulfield12

[bmags]

Moncada is probably a half to one season away from being ML-ready and is about as dynamic as it gets.

 

And reportedly they were only team willing to do that. Robles is 19. ATL/Hou did not offer Bregman/Swanson.

[heirdog]

Anyone else feel the dodgers more inclined to acquire a guy like Quintana now that they have spent big on their key free agent pieces? Top of the rotation w Kershaw and Quintana a lot more bankable than kershaw + anyone else they currently have. And at under $10 million per, gives them cost control for near elite pitcher over the 4 year window they just signed turner and Jansen (5th yr opt out). We take Puig off their hands to get Urias, Bellinger and a lottery ticket.

[bmags]

Anyone else feel the dodgers more inclined to acquire a guy like Quintana now that they have spent big on their key free agent pieces? Top of the rotation w Kershaw and Quintana a lot more bankable than kershaw + anyone else they currently have. And at under $10 million per, gives them cost control for near elite pitcher over the 4 year window they just signed turner and Jansen (5th yr opt out). We take Puig off their hands to get Urias, Bellinger and a lottery ticket.

 

No. I think it proves the dodgers are more than willing to stock as many players as possible without care. They have 10 starting pitchers now.

[KMule2545]

Why are we ignoring the other 101 games where he put up a .750 OPS? Not knocking it, but sample sizes are small, no matter how good the tools are. Risk / Reward just doesn't seem there to me and I know I'm downplaying him / playing the cynic, but people generally overrate this type of guys cause the "sky" is still the limit and everyone ignores the potential hurdles in the way.

 

 

Why is Minor League OPS the only way a lot of posters judge 18-20 year old MiLB talent around here? And I'm not trying to come at you, Chisoxfn, but I've been seeing a lot of this. We have to look at the scouting reports from guys who see this guy play all the time. We have to look at the swing (no, Ryan Sweeney 10+ years ago doesn't count IMO when MiLB talent back then couldn't hold the jock strap of young baseball talent these days). We have to look at the elite and almost unmatched in the Minors hit tool by this 19 year old. We have to dream on how the power could develop in the next year or two when this young kid fills out his 6'4"/190 lb. body. We have to look at the minimal K rate and very solid BB rate. How many 19 year olds explode on the baseball scene putting up a .900 OPS? Very, very few. The development of extremely young prospects isn't a linear thing. Sure, Kyle Tucker could bust, but as another poster said, I'd be willing to bet he's a top 15-25 prospect going into 2018. It makes you wonder why Luhnow has said this 19 year old prospect is "untouchable"...

[Chisoxfn]

He's not going to end up in CF in all likelihood as he fills out...from the one game I saw him in person, he's definitely impressive and has the swagger of a first round draft pick, but that can erode very quickly in AA.

 

Probably better off holding out for THE #1 piece in a deal they're targeting, unless that happens to really be Tucker despite his ETA and they can also jam Reed into the deal...so their scouts would have to make that determination.

 

Early season injuries (or spring training) or trade deadline pressures will also provide the Sox leverage. Of course, he could get hurt in the WBC if you hold onto him, too.

I like Tucker a lot more as a #2 or ideally a #3 with upside. Probably a bit aggressive, but in general, more in lines of what I'd be pushing and to be frank, none of us know what discussions are going on right now, and if the right deal was already there, we'd see the deal done already.

[iamshack]

I admittedly am still learning the differences between evaluating prospect talent and mlb regulars.

 

That being said, at some point, potential, particularly with the attrition rate we're seeing for prospects, is not such a holy grail that I am moving my near-elite, rock solid, easy as it gets motion SP for the opportunity of HOPING that Kyle Tucker turns into a player as valuable as the one I am relinquishing.

 

I'm sorry, but 19 year old kids that aren't already dominating a league wherein they are one of the younger players simply cannot be untouchable for a proven player with the value of Jose Quintana.

 

This is just getting out of hand.

 

 

[GermanSoxFan]

Why is Minor League OPS the only way a lot of posters judge 18-20 year old MiLB talent around here? And I'm not trying to come at you, Chisoxfn, but I've been seeing a lot of this. We have to look at the scouting reports from guys who see this guy play all the time. We have to look at the swing (no, Ryan Sweeney 10+ years ago doesn't count IMO when MiLB talent back then couldn't hold the jock strap of young baseball talent these days). We have to look at the elite and almost unmatched in the Minors hit tool by this 19 year old. We have to dream on how the power could develop in the next year or two when this young kid fills out his 6'4"/190 lb. body. We have to look at the minimal K rate and very solid BB rate. How many 19 year olds explode on the baseball scene putting up a .900 OPS? Very, very few. The development of extremely young prospects isn't a linear thing. Sure, Kyle Tucker could bust, but as another poster said, I'd be willing to bet he's a top 15-25 prospect going into 2018. It makes you wonder why Luhnow has said this 19 year old prospect is "untouchable"...

 

That's true, but as a centerpiece for one of the best pitchers in the game with 4 years of team control, I'd be more intrested in a guy who has shown that he can handle AA and is more projectable. That's why I'm not all that excited about a trade with Houston.

 

IMO the perfect trade partner would be the Cubs. But I doubt that'll happen.

[KMule2545]

I admittedly am still learning the differences between evaluating prospect talent and mlb regulars.

 

That being said, at some point, potential, particularly with the attrition rate we're seeing for prospects, is not such a holy grail that I am moving my near-elite, rock solid, easy as it gets motion SP for the opportunity of HOPING that Kyle Tucker turns into a player as valuable as the one I am relinquishing.

 

I'm sorry, but 19 year old kids that aren't already dominating a league wherein they are one of the younger players simply cannot be untouchable for a proven player with the value of Jose Quintana.

 

This is just getting out of hand.

 

The almighty Gleyber Torres put up a .270/.354/.421/.775 line in high A this year at age 19. You wouldn't take Gleyber Torres as a headliner for Q? Tucker put up a .285/.360/.438/.798 between A and high A in 2016 at age 19 with A LOT less strikeouts.

Edited December 13, 2016 by Ro Da Don

[iamshack]

The almighty Gleyber Torres put up a .270/.354/.421/.775 line in high A this year at age 19. You wouldn't take Gleyber Torres as a headliner for Q? Tucker put up a .285/.360/.438/.798 between A and high A in 2016 at age 19.

No, I would want 3 or 4 guys like Torres for Q.

 

The Cubs traded him for half a season of Chapman, not four seasons of an outstanding SP.

[KMule2545]

No, I would want 3 or 4 guys like Torres for Q.

 

The Cubs traded him for half a season of Chapman, not four seasons of an outstanding SP.

 

I said "as the headliner". Never said straight up.

Edited December 13, 2016 by Ro Da Don

[iamshack]

I said "as the headliner". Never said straight up.

The headliner still equates to the majority of the value in the deal.

 

I'm not trying to be argumentative...but stop and think what Q's value has been for the last 4 seasons.

 

Now tell me what are the chances Torres ends up giving me that kind of value, projecting him as a 19 year old?

 

MAYBE 25-30%?

[Jake]

Comparing the price the Cubs paid, when they were arguably a good closer away from their first WS in 100 years and had plenty of near-MLB and MLB players in the positions Torres would play, to this situation probably won't make you happy about anything that could plausibly happen. Same goes for the Shelby Miller trade. If the GM is drunk when he makes the deal, great, but you can't bank on that stuff happening.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Hypothetically, what would the Cubs deal look like? Happ, Jimenez ++?

[heirdog]

Someone will blink...and w 4 years of cheap control, it absolutely will not be the White Sox

[Chisoxfn]

That's true, but as a centerpiece for one of the best pitchers in the game with 4 years of team control, I'd be more intrested in a guy who has shown that he can handle AA and is more projectable. That's why I'm not all that excited about a trade with Houston.

 

IMO the perfect trade partner would be the Cubs. But I doubt that'll happen.

What you said. And RonRon....I don't think bust rates of these top prospects are all that much different as bust rates of years past. The reality is, especially for younger players, the unknown is the unknown. A lot can change for a 19 year old. At the ripe old age of 18, Ken Griffey Jr was crushing it in AA. My long and short of it is, Tucker might have a ton of tools, but there have been millions of guys with tons of tools who were 19 and put up the type of numbers Tucker has thus far, who didn't go on to even have a cup of coffee. If he was doing what Griffey did, okay, we are talking centerpiece (and obviously in the case of Griffey, we are talking untouchable)...but for god sakes, people are throwing out Ted Williams (possibly the best hitter who ever lived) as a comp. Get real here. I think when you do that people need a reality check on things.

 

Or Mike Trout...who at age 19 was putting up a .958 OPS in AA. Again, just using OPS here, but I could go to a ton of different stats. And I do agree, power potential comes later so OPS might be lower, but in general, is still a pretty damn good stat, imo (despite not being overly "advanced), when it comes to evaluating offensive production. Albeit you need to project the fact that doubles can become hr's, etc, as young kids grow out.

 

 

[KMule2545]

The headliner still equates to the majority of the value in the deal.

 

I'm not trying to be argumentative...but stop and think what Q's value has been for the last 4 seasons.

 

Now tell me what are the chances Torres ends up giving me that kind of value, projecting him as a 19 year old?

 

MAYBE 25-30%?

 

C'mon. A little closer to 50%. We're talking about some of the most talented 19 year olds in the world here. Torres just won the AFL MVP at age 19, which is nearly unheard of. Obviously there's going to be a lot of projection involved with these type of players but you can argue the payoff could be infinite. I agree in principle with what you're saying based on Q's contract/control/the current market. But we got 2 Torres/Tucker type talents and 2 other raw guys for Sale. There is 0 chance we're going to get 4 of those type of talents for the unheralded/off-brand Jose Quintana comparatively.

 

No arguing, just friendly debates . We agree to disagree

[Chisoxfn]

The headliner still equates to the majority of the value in the deal.

 

I'm not trying to be argumentative...but stop and think what Q's value has been for the last 4 seasons.

 

Now tell me what are the chances Torres ends up giving me that kind of value, projecting him as a 19 year old?

 

MAYBE 25-30%?

And 4 years of control is a lot of control still left...not all that much different then what we are getting back. Risk / Reward on this proposed deal just isn't there, imo.

[iamshack]

Comparing the price the Cubs paid, when they were arguably a good closer away from their first WS in 100 years and had plenty of near-MLB and MLB players in the positions Torres would play, to this situation probably won't make you happy about anything that could plausibly happen. Same goes for the Shelby Miller trade. If the GM is drunk when he makes the deal, great, but you can't bank on that stuff happening.

That is the price you can request when you don't have any necessity to move the guy right now though.

 

Then wait for the situation you described above to recreate itself again as the season goes on.

[Y2Jimmy0]

The headliner still equates to the majority of the value in the deal.

 

I'm not trying to be argumentative...but stop and think what Q's value has been for the last 4 seasons.

 

Now tell me what are the chances Torres ends up giving me that kind of value, projecting him as a 19 year old?

 

MAYBE 25-30%?

 

 

I kind of feel like it's a double headliner though. It's two top 50 prospects. Francis Martes looks like a TOR starter that is already at AA. Tucker is further away but ahs the potential to be one of these guys deemed untouchable one year from now. Houston has a ton of other high upside types like OF Ramon Laureano and RHP Franklin Perez.

[iamshack]

<!--quoteo(post=3461134:date=Dec 12, 2016 -> 06:25 PM:name=iamshack)-->

<!--quotec-->The headliner still equates to the majority of the value in the deal.

 

I'm not trying to be argumentative...but stop and think what Q's value has been for the last 4 seasons.

 

Now tell me what are the chances Torres ends up giving me that kind of value, projecting him as a 19 year old?

 

MAYBE 25-30%?

 

C'mon. A little closer to 50%. We're talking about some of the most talented 19 year olds in the world here. Torres just won the AFL MVP at age 19, which is nearly unheard of. Obviously there's going to be a lot of projection involved with these type of players but you can argue the payoff could be infinite. I agree in principle with what you're saying based on Q's contract/control/the current market. But we got 2 Torres/Tucker type talents and 2 other raw guys for Sale. There is 0 chance we're going to get 4 of those type of talents for the unheralded/off-brand Jose Quintana comparatively.

 

No arguing, just friendly debates . We agree to disagree

Is Moncada really not any better than Tucker or Torres, in terms of prospects?

[Con te Giolito]

The headliner still equates to the majority of the value in the deal.

 

I'm not trying to be argumentative...but stop and think what Q's value has been for the last 4 seasons.

 

Now tell me what are the chances Torres ends up giving me that kind of value, projecting him as a 19 year old?

 

MAYBE 25-30%?

Headliner doesn't necessarily constitute the majority of the value in a deal. I would say Dunning and Lopez together are more valuable than Giolito, and Giolito was the headliner.

 

After the Sale and Eaton trades the Sox figure to be pretty pitiful for at least 2017, so right there any value derived from Quintana is basically being wasted. Barring some minor miracles the same could be said for 2018. At that point half of this value has basically evaporated into thin air and you're no longer even getting whatever 2018-19 offseasons equivalent of Kyle Tucker is alone for Quintana, let alone that and a package of more players.

[GermanSoxFan]

Hypothetically, what would the Cubs deal look like? Happ, Jimenez ++?

 

If the Cubs weren't so attached to Schwarber, he would be the logical headliner as his peak value due to his defensive shortcomings is limited. I don't see him topping a 3 win season as an outfielder.. And they obviously won't deal Contreras.

Happ and Jimenez would have to be included along with Candelario. Candelario is obviously blocked but has shown a tremendous eye at the plate and is solid all around.

[iamshack]

Headliner doesn't necessarily constitute the majority of the value in a deal. I would say Dunning and Lopez together are more valuable than Giolito, and Giolito was the headliner.

 

After the Sale and Eaton trades the Sox figure to be pretty pitiful for at least 2017, so right there any value derived from Quintana is basically being wasted. Barring some minor miracles the same could be said for 2018. At that point half of this value has basically evaporated into thin air and you're no longer even getting whatever 2018-19 offseasons equivalent of Kyle Tucker is alone for Quintana, let alone that and a package of more players.

In regard to the bolded, fair enough.

 

But for Q, I would prefer that we don't compromise. He's worth someone that has a little less projection required.

[KMule2545]

Is Moncada really not any better than Tucker or Torres, in terms of prospects?

 

Sure, current ranking place on top prospect lists, sure. Talent wise, I personally consider them all to be part of the same group of prospects who project to be future all stars. Moncada has already sniffed the Bigs and is near-MLB ready. Obviously he's going to be higher ranking-wise after proving himself at AA and reaching the Majors.