Quintana Rumors: Round and round and round we go

[steveno89]

Add me to the list of surplus value being an overvalued indicator. I would welcome a report on these excess value applied retroactively to previous years of trades to see how accurate they would have been, and that should ultimately ignore performance of trade itself.

 

The method of thinking also looks at a potential trade in a vacuum, and does not consider how multiple suitors bidding will drive up the price

[bmags]

This poster from crawfishboxes answered a lot of my questions on why this analysis feels at odds with the market and does not address the questions well:

KUDOS to him (poster Lipper34):

http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2016/12/16/13...r-jose-quintana

Not all projections and projection systems are created equal. In that vein, presenting the projected future WAR of Quintana and the projected future WAR of Martes+Tucker+Musgrove as being anywhere close to equally likely to come to fruition is somewhat misleading. Projections that are in large part based on past major league performance, (along with age and various other factors) especially large sample sizes of it (such as say a ZIPs or STEAMER projection for Quintanta would be) have a much stronger correlation to future major league performance than do projections of future major league performance based on similarly significant sample sizes of past minor league performance and prospect ranking (along with age and various other factors) (such be the case for the KATOH/KATOH+ projections used by the author for Martes, Tucker and Musgrove). While I know the author used the chart from Craig Edwards’ Fangraphs article to estimate Quintana’s future WAR, and not a ZIPs or STEAMER projection, Jeff Sullivan used those projections for Quintana and came to approximately the same surplus value for Quintana as this article’s author (only slightly higher ~ $96 mil), so it’s the same thing for all intents and purposes. And that already comparatively weaker correlation of KATOH/KATOH+ projections based on past minor league performance and prospect ranking to future major league performance gets progressively weaker still for each successively lower level of the minors in which the projected player has logged a significant sample size. So, for example, a significant sample size of performance at AAA, and/or the fact a prospect is ranked 20th at that level will bear a stronger correlation to future major league performance than will that same sample size of performance at AA, and so on for each successively lower level of the minors. This is obviously relevant because the highest level of the minors Tucker has reached is A+, but he has only an almost meaningless 69 plate appearance sample size. His highest level with a significant sample size is A ball. Martes has only reached AA, and Musgrove has only a 62 inning big league sample size.

 

Because of this, the end WAR number the projection yields for Quintana is a lot more likely to be much closer to what his actual WAR ends up being over the next 4 years. There is not such a large likelihood he has a WAR hugely better or worse than the projection over the next 4 years. In the same vein though, end WAR numbers the KATOH/KATOH+ projection yields for Martes, Tucker and Musgrove is really just the middle point of huge range of possibilities for each of these guys. To whatever extent a player can be on, Quintana is much more of a sure thing to hit his projections, whereas Martes, Tucker and Musgrove’s futures have equal chances to turn out each of a large variety of different ways (some good some bad).

 

The problem of Martes’, Tucker’s and Musgrove’s projected WAR being far less certain than Quintana’s is only part of the problem with comparing each side of such a hypothetical trade’s surplus value. The other part of the problem is the projection of the money that will be paid to Musgrove/Martes/Tucker vs the money to be paid to Quintana in the future. Quintana is under contract for 4 more years. We know with 100% certainty what he will be paid and we also know it will be far under market value. Projecting arbitration contracts for Musgrove, Martes and Tucker is obviously far from certain and encounters many difficulties. Namely, that arbitration salaries aren’t really based on future WAR, so its hard to project them based on WAR. Arbitration salaries still use old school stats like RBI and Pitcher Wins. So, there is a significant possibility of ending up with an arbitration salary which will not be accorded in line with the player’s actual value.

 

As such, there is a lot of uncertainty in the projections of the surplus value of the Stros prospects and a lot of certainty in the projection of Quintana’s and it is unfair to put the projections side by side and compare them as if they are equal

[BlackSox13]

This poster from crawfishboxes answered a lot of my questions on why this analysis feels at odds with the market and does not address the questions well:

KUDOS to him (poster Lipper34):

http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2016/12/16/13...r-jose-quintana

Thanks for posting that. Lipper34 does a good job of looking at the proposed trade from both sides. The writer of the article however, is disillusioned if he thinks Luhnow should wait out Hahn's asking price. The reality of the situation is that the Sox are rebuilding, have a very valuable asset in Q and do not need to trade him. The writer comes off as though the Sox NEED to trade Q and will at some point drop the price which is clearly not the case. The Astros need Q more than the Sox do so if Luhnow doesn't want to pay thats fine with me because somebody will. Go ahead Houston, wait it out because rebuilds take time and the Sox have plenty of it.

 

Would be hilarious if the Sox ended up getting their haul for Q in July, from the Rangers.

[bmags]

Thanks for posting that. Lipper34 does a good job of looking at the proposed trade from both sides. The writer of the article however, is disillusioned if he thinks Luhnow should wait out Hahn's asking price. The reality of the situation is that the Sox are rebuilding, have a very valuable asset in Q and do not need to trade him. The writer comes off as though the Sox NEED to trade Q and will at some point drop the price which is clearly not the case. The Astros need Q more than the Sox do so if Luhnow doesn't want to pay thats fine with me because somebody will. Go ahead Houston, wait it out because rebuilds take time and the Sox have plenty of it.

 

Would be hilarious if the Sox ended up getting their haul for Q in July, from the Rangers.

 

Rangers system at such an odd point in development.

 

The team that I still go back on is the Braves. Not from a "will they" standpoint as I think their Sale interest was a starry eyed new stadium acquisition ploy, but trying to figure out much value I would put to incredibly high up side incredibly risky players like Meitan or Vlad Guerrero Jr from Blue Jays. But Albies/Meitan, does that get you in door with other teams?

[steveno89]

Rangers system at such an odd point in development.

 

The team that I still go back on is the Braves. Not from a "will they" standpoint as I think their Sale interest was a starry eyed new stadium acquisition ploy, but trying to figure out much value I would put to incredibly high up side incredibly risky players like Meitan or Vlad Guerrero Jr from Blue Jays. But Albies/Meitan, does that get you in door with other teams?

 

Maitan looks like a very good prospect, but he has not even turned 17 yet. There is far too much risk projecting a player that young to the major leagues.

 

Albies looks like he could be a really good player, and I will give him the benefit of the doubt because he is still young, but his 2016 performance at AAA was not great. The speed, makeup and defensive ability are not questioned, but if the bat doesn't play his value will be limited. I don't doubt that he will make the majors eventually and contribute, but he needs to prove he can handle AAA pitching this season to take the next step.

 

Maitan is a toolsy wild card, and a serious gamble. If I'm dealing Quintana I would want a more proven prospect.

 

 

[bmags]

Maitan looks like a very good prospect, but he has not even turned 17 yet. There is far too much risk projecting a player that young to the major leagues.

 

Albies looks like he could be a really good player, and I will give him the benefit of the doubt because he is still young, but his 2016 performance at AAA was not great. The speed, makeup and defensive ability are not questioned, but if the bat doesn't play his value will be limited. I don't doubt that he will make the majors eventually and contribute, but he needs to prove he can handle AAA pitching this season to take the next step.

 

Maitan is a toolsy wild card, and a serious gamble. If I'm dealing Quintana I would want a more proven prospect.

 

I guess my question is, if you were trading with BRaves would you deal more with certainty or the highest possible upside? I can see doing a deal without Meitan but I love any deal with him a lot more.

[Chisoxfn]

This is what Keith Law said:

 

Nick: If you were Lunhow, would you trade Musgrove + Martes + Tucker for Quintana, and why or why not? I go back and forth as an Astros fan but think I’d be happy with him pulling the trigger.

Klaw: If I’m Luhnow I do it. If I’m Hahn I’m not even countering because it’s so low. FWIW, I don’t know that that was ever discussed by the clubs.

Seems to echo Shack & I's sentiments and I hope Hahn has the same opinion. I also hope the rest of the baseball world values Q like some of us on here do (in the sense that he is a borderline ace whose contract essentially values him at an "ace" level).

[bighurt574]

That's the faulty logic in the article

 

The chance that Quintana delivers on his surplus value over the next 4 seasons is way higher than the chance those three prospects pan out and produce.

 

That's true, but the flip side is that the prospects are more likely than Quintana to exceed their projected surplus values. There's more upside and downside risk with prospects, and the projected surplus values, at least in theory, are supposed to take that into account. So you basically get some middle number somewhere between best and worst case scenarios. The range for a Quintana is much narrower.

[OmarComing25]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the author didn't discount present value. $20 million of surplus value 5 or 6 years from now is not as valuable as $20 million in surplus value in years 1 and 2.

Edited December 16, 2016 by OmarComing25

[steveno89]

That's true, but the flip side is that the prospects are more likely than Quintana to exceed their projected surplus values. There's more upside and downside risk with prospects, and the projected surplus values, at least in theory, are supposed to take that into account. So you basically get some middle number somewhere between best and worst case scenarios. The range for a Quintana is much narrower.

 

Even still, the known and more proven value is in Quintana over the next four seasons than the combined value of 3 prospects. Sure, one of them could develop into an all star caliber player and it would be a win for the White Sox.

 

If I am dealing 4 seasons of prime Quintana, the return should be along the lines of Sale and Eaton.

 

 

[bmags]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the author didn't discount present value. $20 million of surplus value 5 or 6 years from now is not as valuable as $20 million in surplus value in years 1 and 2.

 

Do you know anywhere that accounts for this?

[BlackSox13]

Rangers system at such an odd point in development.

 

The team that I still go back on is the Braves. Not from a "will they" standpoint as I think their Sale interest was a starry eyed new stadium acquisition ploy, but trying to figure out much value I would put to incredibly high up side incredibly risky players like Meitan or Vlad Guerrero Jr from Blue Jays. But Albies/Meitan, does that get you in door with other teams?

I just threw the Rangers out there as an ironic twist to the Astros stance on Q. Definitely not counting on the Rangers jumping in though that could change in July if Q is still in Chicago.

 

Never bought into the rumors concerning the Braves. They have spent the last few years collecting MiLB talent for their rebuild and then factor in the one year wonders they acquired via trade and FA. No team goes out and trades for one year of Jaime Garcia as well as sign the likes of Colon/Danks/Dickey if they are contenders. Those four pitchers were brought in to buy some more time for their young pitching to further develop. I think a case can be made that they might have temporarily tossed their hat into the mix in an effort to drive the price up on their division rival Nat's.

[steveno89]

I just threw the Rangers out there as an ironic twist to the Astros stance on Q. Definitely not counting on the Rangers jumping in though that could change in July if Q is still in Chicago.

 

Never bought into the rumors concerning the Braves. They have spent the last few years collecting MiLB talent for their rebuild and then factor in the one year wonders they acquired via trade and FA. No team goes out and trades for one year of Jaime Garcia as well as sign the likes of Colon/Danks/Dickey if they are contenders. Those four pitchers were brought in to buy some more time for their young pitching to further develop. I think a case can be made that they might have temporarily tossed their hat into the mix in an effort to drive the price up on their division rival Nat's.

 

The Braves were never serious suitors for Sale, or Quintana for that matter. They seem content letting their minor league talent develop, although alot of it is considerably far from the major leagues (Allard, Anderson, Maitan, Soroka, Wentz, Muller, Riley, Acuna). None of those players project to break into the majors before the 2019 season, if at all.

[OmarComing25]

Do you know anywhere that accounts for this?

Unfortunately I don't.

[bmags]

Unfortunately I don't.

 

It is probably harder to do in baseball than any other sport. They'd have to control for upcoming tv money.

[Dam8610]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the author didn't discount present value. $20 million of surplus value 5 or 6 years from now is not as valuable as $20 million in surplus value in years 1 and 2.

 

No discount for PV or risk, which, if done, would make that offer from Houston as silly as we think it is. I think the best package the Sox can feasibly get from Houston (because they refuse to come off Bregman) is Reed, Tucker, Martes, and Stubbs. That gives you a power bat who had performed well at all levels until his first MLB stint, which may have been rushed, a good defensive catcher with a low K, high on base bat that has a non-zero chance of being a successful starter in MLB, and the very high ceilings of Tucker and Martes. That seems worth trading Q.

[Con te Giolito]

Rangers system at such an odd point in development.

 

The team that I still go back on is the Braves. Not from a "will they" standpoint as I think their Sale interest was a starry eyed new stadium acquisition ploy, but trying to figure out much value I would put to incredibly high up side incredibly risky players like Meitan or Vlad Guerrero Jr from Blue Jays. But Albies/Meitan, does that get you in door with other teams?

I didn't have much interest in the Braves for Sale because I knew they weren't giving up Swanson. But for Quintana its a whole different story. Albies + Allard alone is tempting, not to mention getting Acuna or Riley thrown into the deal.

[steveno89]

I didn't have much interest in the Braves for Sale because I knew they weren't giving up Swanson. But for Quintana its a whole different story. Albies + Allard alone is tempting, not to mention getting Acuna or Riley thrown into the deal.

 

Allard's back issues do not concern you?

 

Realistically Atlanta is not a serious buyer, as I doubt they would be willing to fork over what it would take to land Quintana

 

My asking price would be (assuming no Swanson): Albies + Newcomb + Maitan + Riley + Acuna

 

Atlanta would balk at that, but I'm not even sure I'd take Albies + Newcomb + Maitan for Quintana. Newcomb needs to get the walks under control, walking a batter every other inning in AA is a recipe for MLB disaster as hitters are much more patient

[Con te Giolito]

Allard did fine all last year. I havent heard of any of his issues flaring up, if they have then that changes things.

[bmags]

I don't think that ATL is a serious buyer for Q, I just find their farm interesting for its lack of high end bats but very interesting young prospects in bulk.

[steveno89]

I don't think that ATL is a serious buyer for Q, I just find their farm interesting for its lack of high end bats but very interesting young prospects in bulk.

 

It is a farm with a ton of potential, but also a ton of question marks

[GermanSoxFan]

Albies as the headliner for Q would make me livid. IMO his absolute ceiling is Alcides Escobar.. There is not much upside in his bat and we all know the Sox need those kind of bats badly.

[Chicago White Sox]

I've probably said this a half dozen over the past month, but I still think he ends up with the Astros. Dick Allen mentioned it, but Luhnow is incredibly stats-oriented and would have think Quintana is one of the more valuable starters in baseball. I can't imagine a prospect like Martes or Tucker would hold up a deal. Now, I could see Musgrove being an issue because he could very well have an impact on 2017. Regardless, I think the Astros have too deep of a system for us not to find a happy medium with them. That being said, Martes & Tucker are musts in any deal.

[Chisoxfn]

I think one day we are all going to login and there will be a report that Q has been traded. Seems like whomever else the Sox are talking to have quiet lips and with everyone staying radio silent, we all might be surprised at who acquires him or how quick it goes down.

[steveno89]

Albies as the headliner for Q would make me livid. IMO his absolute ceiling is Alcides Escobar.. There is not much upside in his bat and we all know the Sox need those kind of bats badly.

 

I like Albies alot, but the utter lack of power does limit his upside considerably.

 

Every other tool it there, and he can be an above average fielder, but I'm not having him be the centerpiece of a Quintana deal

 

Rodgers would be a perfect centerpiece for the White Sox