Quintana Rumors: Round and round and round we go

[shakes]

If the Astros really work by the numbers as some have suggested, this article may help explain why they aren't that interested in Quintana: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/do-the-astr...-jose-quintana/

 

 

Man is Cameron phoning it in these days. Where to even start with how lazy that argument is?

 

You choose wOBA as a single stat to make your argument? So, let's just ignore how much better Q has been the last two years, the defense behind him, the park he pitched in, the framing differences, the 70 extra innings he threw, the two years younger he is, the contract affordability, and most of all there is no argument that anything should be framed as Q vs. McHugh. It's what does Q do to their rotation, and team, as a whole?

[TheFutureIsNear]

Interesting rumor...anybody think the Pirates would try to trade Polanco and just bring up Meadows/Bell for RF? For a team always worried about the bottom line I would think they'd be more inclined to trade a guy who's service time has already started...

 

Would anybody do something along the line of Q for Polanco, Glasnow, Keller, and Ke'Bryan Hayes (or something close)?

[ChiSox59]

He has very little power and you can't possibly expect his OBP numbers to stay at that level as he ascends through the minors.

 

A guy with a 1:1 walk to k ratio in the minors is very exciting to me. Look, I'd rather have a Meadows / Bell based package, but Meadows / Newman wouldn't be too bad either. I don't see the Sox pulling the trigger without Meadows.

[NCsoxfan]

This isn't George Bell's kid is it?

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Here comes the pressure on the Astros. Sounds familiar to the Sale trade except that was one was a lot closer. We'll see if this is nailed down between now and Friday.

[SoCalSox]

I think a realistic package has to start around one of Meadows/Bell.

 

Obviously, Medows is much more enticing but I also think he's much more unrealistic.

 

Would everyone be happy with a package of Bell, Newman, Keller & lower level guy? That's 3 top 100 guys & a throw in like with Boston. The caliber of prospects isn't as high as the Sale deal but there's a bit more depth to this one.

[Chicago White Sox]

A guy with a 1:1 walk to k ratio in the minors is very exciting to me. Look, I'd rather have a Meadows / Bell based package, but Meadows / Newman wouldn't be too bad either. I don't see the Sox pulling the trigger without Meadows.

100% agree with all of this. Even with the lack of power, Newman's bat would slot in nicely at the top of the lineup.

[Con te Giolito]

"Working hard" is pretty imminent language. This could really accelerate with the Pirates at any time, which is BAD BAD BAD for my productivity.

[Balta1701]

This is the part I dont see. They are probably gonna be looking up at the Cubs and Cardinals for the foreseeable future.

So, I gotta come in and defend the Pirates here. This is a team that won 98 games in 2015 and deserved to. If McCutchen is still able to put up all star numbers, this is a team with a number of strengths.

 

In the OF, you've got 3 plus bats and at least 2 plus defenders - Marte is a borderline all star every year, McCutchen has won MVP awards, Polanco is 24, has gotten better every year, and had an above average bat last year. If his power develops as he ages he'll be an all star, so there's 3 borderline all stars and a guy who has been an MVP. That OF on paper is competitive for best in baseball.

 

Their IF isn't filled with stars like their OF is, but Kang, Harrison, Freese, and Mercer are all 1-3 WAR players in a normal year. Decent defense, decent bats, fills in a fairly deep lineup when you have those 3 big OF bats.

 

1b has been a weak spot for them for years now, but Josh Bell pencils into that role nicely right now.

 

Catcher - Cervelli again, not an all star, but a good strong catcher and handles a staff well.

 

Their pitching rotation - Gerrit Cole is a legit number 1 starter, follow that by Taillon, Glasnow, and Kuhl and you have a young, strong, cheap starting rotation to pair with him. Bullpen has been a strength for years, and they've had an excellent record of both developing pitchers and of pulling out reclamation projects.

 

What happened to them last year? Well first of all their pitching rotation got hurt and fell apart. Cole hit the DL, Liriano was terrible, that took a rotation that was near the top of the NL in 2015 down towards the bottom last year. They had to play a lot of rookies, the rookies have talent but you can only get so far with that young of a rotation. On top of that, McCutchen fell apart - that's the difference between being in the WC race and out of it right there, you don't replace an MVP who has a terrible year.

 

With the young pitching they have, the only reason why that team can't be competitive with the Cubs and Cardinals again is if the same things happened this year. If McCutchen's career is really finished, then they're not competitive unless they trade him, and if Cole can't stay healthy then that does what Sale being hurt would have done to us - destroys them.

 

That's a strong roster if a few things go well. Adding in Quintana could be a really good fit - if they're worried about injuries then add in the most reliable pitcher you can find into that #2 slot and you've made that rotation into as good of a rotation on paper as there is in that division, and if you could do it without subtracting Bell or anyone from the big league rotation by using Meadows as the key piece, then the baseball logic works. That doesn't guarantee they'll beat the Cubs, they need Cole to be healthy and McCutchen to be MVP caliber again to do that, but they would be a strong roster on paper and that's a good place to be. There are other ways to make that work if they got a full return for McCutchen also, so there's a good match on paper for that franchise.

[steveno89]

I think a realistic package has to start around one of Meadows/Bell.

 

Obviously, Medows is much more enticing but I also think he's much more unrealistic.

 

Would everyone be happy with a package of Bell, Newman, Keller & lower level guy? That's 3 top 100 guys & a throw in like with Boston. The caliber of prospects isn't as high as the Sale deal but there's a bit more depth to this one.

 

I value Meadows considerably higher than Bell because he can play center field (at a plus graded level). That is more valuable than a first baseman/DH.

[Buehrlesque]

I think a realistic package has to start around one of Meadows/Bell.

 

Obviously, Medows is much more enticing but I also think he's much more unrealistic.

 

Would everyone be happy with a package of Bell, Newman, Keller & lower level guy? That's 3 top 100 guys & a throw in like with Boston. The caliber of prospects isn't as high as the Sale deal but there's a bit more depth to this one.

Why are some people saying Meadows is unrealistic? The Red Sox just traded the top prospect in the game. The A's traded a top 15 guy for a year and a half of Jeff Samardzija. The Royals traded a top 10 guy for James Shields! Need we mention the Shelby Miller deal? If you want a top arm like Quintana, Meadows is not unrealistic at all. It would be silly for him NOT to be part of the package. Q for Meadows, Bell plus lower-level guys is where the conversation starts for me.

[SoCalSox]

I value Meadows considerably higher than Bell because he can play center field (at a plus graded level). That is more valuable than a first baseman/DH.

 

Trust me, I'm right there with you but seems like Meadows isn't a realistic option.

 

FWIW, a Pirates ESPN guy suggested a Glasnow/Keller, Bell & Newman deal with another lower level piece or two.

 

Thoughts on this?

[bmags]

Man is Cameron phoning it in these days. Where to even start with how lazy that argument is?

 

You choose wOBA as a single stat to make your argument? So, let's just ignore how much better Q has been the last two years, the defense behind him, the park he pitched in, the framing differences, the 70 extra innings he threw, the two years younger he is, the contract affordability, and most of all there is no argument that anything should be framed as Q vs. McHugh. It's what does Q do to their rotation, and team, as a whole?

 

Also Quintana working with some of the worst framers in the league vs Astros having the best.

[Bob Sacamano]

"Working hard" is pretty imminent language. This could really accelerate with the Pirates at any time, which is BAD BAD BAD for my productivity.

 

Dude tell me about it. I have s*** to do today lol

[Dick Allen]

"Working hard" is pretty imminent language. This could really accelerate with the Pirates at any time, which is BAD BAD BAD for my productivity.

I don't think so. They know the price. It's just a term that they have real interest IMO.

 

 

[steveno89]

So, I gotta come in and defend the Pirates here. This is a team that won 98 games in 2015 and deserved to. If McCutchen is still able to put up all star numbers, this is a team with a number of strengths.

 

In the OF, you've got 3 plus bats and at least 2 plus defenders - Marte is a borderline all star every year, McCutchen has won MVP awards, Polanco is 24, has gotten better every year, and had an above average bat last year. If his power develops as he ages he'll be an all star, so there's 3 borderline all stars and a guy who has been an MVP. That OF on paper is competitive for best in baseball.

 

Their IF isn't filled with stars like their OF is, but Kang, Harrison, Freese, and Mercer are all 1-3 WAR players in a normal year. Decent defense, decent bats, fills in a fairly deep lineup when you have those 3 big OF bats.

 

1b has been a weak spot for them for years now, but Josh Bell pencils into that role nicely right now.

 

Catcher - Cervelli again, not an all star, but a good strong catcher and handles a staff well.

 

Their pitching rotation - Gerrit Cole is a legit number 1 starter, follow that by Taillon, Glasnow, and Kuhl and you have a young, strong, cheap starting rotation to pair with him. Bullpen has been a strength for years, and they've had an excellent record of both developing pitchers and of pulling out reclamation projects.

 

What happened to them last year? Well first of all their pitching rotation got hurt and fell apart. Cole hit the DL, Liriano was terrible, that took a rotation that was near the top of the NL in 2015 down towards the bottom last year. They had to play a lot of rookies, the rookies have talent but you can only get so far with that young of a rotation. On top of that, McCutchen fell apart - that's the difference between being in the WC race and out of it right there, you don't replace an MVP who has a terrible year.

 

With the young pitching they have, the only reason why that team can't be competitive with the Cubs and Cardinals again is if the same things happened this year. If McCutchen's career is really finished, then they're not competitive unless they trade him, and if Cole can't stay healthy then that does what Sale being hurt would have done to us - destroys them.

 

That's a strong roster if a few things go well. Adding in Quintana could be a really good fit - if they're worried about injuries then add in the most reliable pitcher you can find into that #2 slot and you've made that rotation into as good of a rotation on paper as there is in that division, and if you could do it without subtracting Bell or anyone from the big league rotation by using Meadows as the key piece, then the baseball logic works. That doesn't guarantee they'll beat the Cubs, they need Cole to be healthy and McCutchen to be MVP caliber again to do that, but they would be a strong roster on paper and that's a good place to be. There are other ways to make that work if they got a full return for McCutchen also, so there's a good match on paper for that franchise.

 

Quintana is a great fit for the Pirates due to his contract. They are not going to spend $100+ million in the next two offseasons to land a big time free agent, and they have a solid team right now. Adding Quintana really would solidify the rotation and allow them to compete with the Cubs and Cardinals right away

[Con te Giolito]

I think a realistic package has to start around one of Meadows/Bell.

 

Obviously, Medows is much more enticing but I also think he's much more unrealistic.

 

Would everyone be happy with a package of Bell, Newman, Keller & lower level guy? That's 3 top 100 guys & a throw in like with Boston. The caliber of prospects isn't as high as the Sale deal but there's a bit more depth to this one.

Bell would be huge. Talk about a guy to pair with Moncada, two switch hitters back-to-back (they both are a bit better LHH, but they will switch hit) in the middle of the Sox lineup like that would be nightmarish to contend with. That's a serious foundation to build a lineup around. I am of the perhaps unpopular opinion that the Pirates would rather move Meadows than Bell.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Why are some people saying Meadows is unrealistic? The Red Sox just traded the top prospect in the game. The A's traded a top 15 guy for a year and a half of Jeff Samardzija. The Royals traded a top 10 guy for James Shields! Need we mention the Shelby Miller deal? If you want a top arm like Quintana, Meadows is not unrealistic at all. It would be silly for him NOT to be part of the package. Q for Meadows, Bell plus lower-level guys is where the conversation starts for me.

 

Agreed. Anything is possible.

[Balta1701]

Why are some people saying Meadows is unrealistic? The Red Sox just traded the top prospect in the game. The A's traded a top 15 guy for a year and a half of Jeff Samardzija. The Royals traded a top 10 guy for James Shields! Need we mention the Shelby Miller deal? If you want a top arm like Quintana, Meadows is not unrealistic at all. It would be silly for him NOT to be part of the package. Q for Meadows, Bell plus lower-level guys is where the conversation starts for me.

The Pirates may put themselves in a position where they don't want to move Meadows and they probably have the ability to get it done without him, but they need to get a strong return for McCutchen to make that work.

 

Bell is almost a better fit for their needs than Meadows, they have roles for all of their top prospects other than Meadows right now, but they aren't going to get him for nothing. Meadows cashed in for Quintana makes sense (probably more sense than Bell), McCutchen moved and Meadows/Marte taking his spot makes sense also, but the latter is obviosuly more complicated because whatever they get for Cutch would have to line up with what the White Sox would take for Q.

[bmags]

Trust me, I'm right there with you but seems like Meadows isn't a realistic option.

 

FWIW, a Pirates ESPN guy suggested a Glasnow/Keller, Bell & Newman deal with another lower level piece or two.

 

Thoughts on this?

 

I would take that. But I know Bell is a bit controversial here. I'd certainly take that back to the Astros.

[flavum]

The whole point of trading McCutchen is to make room for Meadows soon. I just don't think he's in the conversation. The Pirates would move on to other possibilities.

[NorthSideSox72]

We recently acquired a Diaz (Victor), then immediately released another Diaz (Carlos). So the team is already at Diaz quota. There can be only one.

 

It's better to burn out than to fade away

 

He could always be Diaz-ignated for assignment.

 

SoxTalk did not disappoint.

 

[Balta1701]

The whole point of trading McCutchen is to make room for Meadows soon. I just don't think he's in the conversation. The Pirates would move on to other possibilities.

Until the Pirates actually trade McCutchen, Meadows is a trade option also.

 

One of the problems with any setup I see here is that this is one of those "lots of moving parts" deals. Generally when I see things like "move 2 stars in a 3 way trade" I start thinking it isn't going to happen because it's so complex, everything needs to match and it rarely does. The Pirates might be willing to move Cutch, but teams might not pay MVP caliber prices for him coming off an inexplicably terrible season. If teams don't pay that price they might not move him. If they don't move him they don't have a space for Meadows.

 

Just lots of things to work through by that franchise.

[Con te Giolito]

I would take that. But I know Bell is a bit controversial here. I'd certainly take that back to the Astros.

The Astros will not be able to match Glasnow, Bell & Newman unless they add Springer or Bregman.

[Bob Sacamano]

Until the Pirates actually trade McCutchen, Meadows is a trade option also.

 

One of the problems with any setup I see here is that this is one of those "lots of moving parts" deals. Generally when I see things like "move 2 stars in a 3 way trade" I start thinking it isn't going to happen because it's so complex, everything needs to match and it rarely does. The Pirates might be willing to move Cutch, but teams might not pay MVP caliber prices for him coming off an inexplicably terrible season. If teams don't pay that price they might not move him. If they don't move him they don't have a space for Meadows.

 

Just lots of things to work through by that franchise.

 

Probably worth noting that as of now, Marte is supposed to be in center with McCutchen in left. They could still theoretically trade McCutchen and Meadows, getting a cheap front of the rotation starter for 4 years without really hurting their farm a lot (if they can get 2 good prospects for McCutche). It would be a lot easier to find another corner outfielder than a center fielder.