2018 MLB Draft

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I just hope one of Madrigal or Bohm goes in the top 3 because I really can't decide who I would rather have, so I'd prefer that possible regret or buyer's remorse gets removed.  

Going with Kelenic with the idea of saving money is ok with me as well.

[caulfield12]

The other plus is that Rutherford's stock seems to be rising again...and that would be a huge plus if sticking with that original scouting position on his vast potential as a LH hitter pans out.

At least it argues we're not totally inept with high school hitters since the Thompson/Hawkins/Barnum/Trey M. picks.

Edited May 2, 2018 by caulfield12

[GenericUserName]

8 hours ago, hi8is said:

That’s the highest I’ve seen Beer in some time.

I could see him actually going in that range though. I think when a single person evaluates all the prospects and then basically ranks them and uses that rank for a mock then Beer will be a second round pick. But when you have 30 different front offices each making an assessment, I could definitely see one, especially in the back half of the first, thinking his potential and potential to move fast outweighs the risk and is a better value proposition than anyone left on the board. As they always say come draft time, it only takes one. 

[Y2Jimmy0]

I wouldn't be at all shocked with a high school player. Hostetler has spoken about taking the best player available but he's also said that they need to balance the system out a bit. They have too many college guys. I would not pass on Matthew Liberatore at #4. He's as safe as it gets for a HS pitcher and could move fairly quickly as a top to middle of the rotation LHP. I prefer his upside to one of the college hitters. I would also prefer Bohm though if going with a hitter. 

[bmags]

I don't mind higher upside HS players in 11+ range. But I just do not want a HS pitcher this high. If they were getting "best pitching prospect ever!" stuff obviously you work through it. But safest pitching prospect? heard that about Aiken. I think the guy I liked most was Hunter Greene, and obviously AJ Puk became a star and then we'll see. I know I'm not playing the percentages with a 5'7 primary 2b with little power but am with HS pitching, but meh.

That said the one "there is consensus" thing that I think is off is I just feel like this swaggarty top 5 stuff is gonna end up being wrong. 

[Blackout Friday]

7 minutes ago, bmags said:

I don't mind higher upside HS players in 11+ range. But I just do not want a HS pitcher this high. If they were getting "best pitching prospect ever!" stuff obviously you work through it. But safest pitching prospect? heard that about Aiken. I think the guy I liked most was Hunter Greene, and obviously AJ Puk became a star and then we'll see. I know I'm not playing the percentages with a 5'7 primary 2b with little power but am with HS pitching, but meh.

That said the one "there is consensus" thing that I think is off is I just feel like this swaggarty top 5 stuff is gonna end up being wrong. 

Did you mean someone other than Puk? He was a college guy and isn’t a star - not to say he doesn’t have the chance to be. 

I think they go with a college guy. Seems to be their general preference and would fit better with the timeline of the next wave of talent. 

[Y2Jimmy0]

 

 

5 minutes ago, bmags said:

I don't mind higher upside HS players in 11+ range. But I just do not want a HS pitcher this high. If they were getting "best pitching prospect ever!" stuff obviously you work through it. But safest pitching prospect? heard that about Aiken. I think the guy I liked most was Hunter Greene, and obviously AJ Puk became a star and then we'll see. I know I'm not playing the percentages with a 5'7 primary 2b with little power but am with HS pitching, but meh.

That said the one "there is consensus" thing that I think is off is I just feel like this swaggarty top 5 stuff is gonna end up being wrong. 

I'd be pretty surprised with Swaggerty as well. They've shied away from that type of profile lately. 

[SoxAce]

45 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I wouldn't be at all shocked with a high school player. Hostetler has spoken about taking the best player available but he's also said that they need to balance the system out a bit. They have too many college guys. I would not pass on Matthew Liberatore at #4. He's as safe as it gets for a HS pitcher and could move fairly quickly as a top to middle of the rotation LHP. I prefer his upside to one of the college hitters. I would also prefer Bohm though if going with a hitter. 

Welcome to the dark side. ?

[Lillian]

Regarding Madrigal: Would the questionable mechanics, at the plate, impede his ability to make solid contact and hit for average? If the alleged flaws in his approach, only limit his power, I wouldn't consider that to be a major negative. In fact, I personally prefer to see guys of his physical stature, concentrating on making contact and getting on base. Leave the power production to the physically stronger hitters. Therefore, if his approach actually increases his ability to make contact, albeit without much power, I'd consider it a plus.

The future Sox team is not likely to need a power hitter, at SS. If he could continue to get on base, and steal, he would make an ideal leadoff hitter. The idea of a lead off hitter, who can hit the long ball, is rare and certainly not required. So, my question is; Can his mechanics result in good contact hitting, at the Major League level? 

[DirtySox]

2 minutes ago, Lillian said:

Regarding Madrigal: Would the questionable mechanics, at the plate, impede his ability to make solid contact and hit for average? If the alleged flaws in his approach, only limit his power, I wouldn't consider that to be a major negative. In fact, I personally prefer to see guys of his physical stature, concentrating on making contact and getting on base. Leave the power production to the physically stronger hitters. Therefore, if his approach actually increases his ability to make contact, albeit without much power, I'd consider it a plus.

The future Sox team is not likely to need a power hitter, at SS. If he could continue to get on base, and steal, he would make an ideal leadoff hitter. The idea of a lead off hitter, who can hit the long ball, is rare and certainly not required. So, my question is; Can his mechanics result in good contact hitting, at the Major League level? 

Did I miss something?  At what point did Madrigal's hit tool come into question?  That is one of his carrying tools and the last thing I would be worried about.

[Lillian]

If you read the previous 2 or 3 pages, of this thread, you'll note that there is some criticism of his mechanics. 

[DirtySox]

17 minutes ago, Lillian said:

If you read the previous 2 or 3 pages, of this thread, you'll note that there is some criticism of his mechanics. 

The only criticism I see is a YouTube video you posted.  I've yet to see any noteworthy concerns from any of the major credible publications.  If his hit tool and swing mechanics were a glowing red flag, he wouldn't universally be seen as a top 5 draft guy, especially considering his lack of power projection.  I'm taking any major criticism of his future hit tool with a grain of salt until it's echoed by more sources.

Edited May 2, 2018 by DirtySox

[Lillian]

5 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

The only criticism I see is a YouTube video you posted.  I've yet to see any noteworthy concerns from any of the major credible publications.  If his hit tool and swing mechanics were a glowing red flag, he wouldn't universally be seen as a top 5 draft guy, especially considering his lack of power projection.  I'm taking any major criticism of his future hit tool with a grain of salt until it's echoed by more sources.

Good point.

[southsider2k5]

7 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

The only criticism I see is a YouTube video you posted.  I've yet to see any noteworthy concerns from any of the major credible publications.  If his hit tool and swing mechanics were a glowing red flag, he wouldn't universally be seen as a top 5 draft guy, especially considering his lack of power projection.  I'm taking any major criticism of his future hit tool with a grain of salt until it's echoed by more sources.

With his size restricting his ceiling, he has to be a near slam dunk as a major leaguer to look past those physical limitations.  If he had similar holes to some of the other top guys, he wouldn't be in the top 5.

[bmags]

Have we noted yet that the last 2b this board was worried about their size limiting their power ceiling has 9 home runs in a month and like a .340 ISO?

[DirtySox]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

Have we noted yet that the last 2b this board was worried about their size limiting their power ceiling has 9 home runs in a month and like a .340 ISO?

Hah.  I certainly didn't expect this from Albies.

[Lillian]

I could care less about his lack of power. There are already too many guys in the game, who swing for the fences. If he could play good defense, get on base at a .375 clip, or better and steal bases, I'd take him. I don't care if he never hits even one home run. But then, I'm a "throw back".

Edited May 2, 2018 by Lillian

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, Lillian said:

I could care less about his lack of power. There are already too many guys in the game, who swing for the fences. If he could play good defense, get on base at a .375 clip, or better and steal bases, I'd take him. I don't care if he never hits even one home run. But then, I'm a "throw back".

I agree to an extent (I would like Adam Eaton level power at least), but I mainly care about making sure his defensive versatility exists. It appears it does, with the possibility of him being a plus to elite defender at 2b. His arm will be difficult in OF, but if not full time it can be mitigated. Like Albies, he gets a lot of the remarks about how they are just a great baseball player that will just find a way to make it work. I love those descriptions.

[Lillian]

12 minutes ago, bmags said:

I agree to an extent (I would like Adam Eaton level power at least), but I mainly care about making sure his defensive versatility exists. It appears it does, with the possibility of him being a plus to elite defender at 2b. His arm will be difficult in OF, but if not full time it can be mitigated. Like Albies, he gets a lot of the remarks about how they are just a great baseball player that will just find a way to make it work. I love those descriptions.

It would be a big surprise if he could generate Eaton type power, with a wood bat. Eaton is actually pretty strong, for a guy of his small stature.

It is also difficult to imagine that he would ever play in the OF. He is a middle infielder and maybe not even a MLB SS.

Edited May 2, 2018 by Lillian

[bmags]

I'll just leave a scouting report quote on Madrigal:

Quote

Here are my tool assessments of Madrigal after seeing him five times in February and several times during his underclass years: future 60 hit, 70 run, 60 glove at second base, 55 arm. He has plus-plus bat control and is athletic enough to incorporate his entire body into his swings without sacrificing much contact, which enables him to hit for opportunistic extra-base power. Even with 40 raw pop, the quality of Madrigal’s contact is so good that he could hit for average in-game power. He may only amass 12-15 homers annually, but he should hit enough doubles and triples to slug a league-average .430 or so.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/could-a-5-foot-8-second-baseman-be-drafted-first-overall/

And the failure of imagination with finding playing time with depth is amazing to me considering how teams like the cubs and dodgers have operated. He has a 55 arm and quick hands. I heard for years that Sanchez couldn't play SS or 3b because his arm was too weak. That's why his baseball instincts being so good is helpful. He's not a type that you worry about "ruining" by asking him to move around the field.

[Dam8610]

19 minutes ago, bmags said:

I'll just leave a scouting report quote on Madrigal:

And the failure of imagination with finding playing time with depth is amazing to me considering how teams like the cubs and dodgers have operated. He has a 55 arm and quick hands. I heard for years that Sanchez couldn't play SS or 3b because his arm was too weak. That's why his baseball instincts being so good is helpful. He's not a type that you worry about "ruining" by asking him to move around the field.

I'm really hoping the Sox pick Madrigal if he makes it to 4. MI with the speed and arm to stick and a grade 60 hit tool coming into the draft and expected to rise through the ranks quickly is too good to pass on. He also reminds me a lot of Jose Altuve, and there's a small bit of hope that he could become that. But a 50th-75th percentile outcome would still be quality ML contributor.

Does anyone have any grades on Bohm?

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

I'm really hoping the Sox pick Madrigal if he makes it to 4. MI with the speed and arm to stick and a grade 60 hit tool coming into the draft and expected to rise through the ranks quickly is too good to pass on. He also reminds me a lot of Jose Altuve, and there's a small bit of hope that he could become that. But a 50th-75th percentile outcome would still be quality ML contributor.

Does anyone have any grades on Bohm?

From everything I see on Madrigal, he is a guy who is probably around a 45 today, with a ceiling around 50, maybe 55.  The other guys (Bohm, Swaggerty) probably grade more like 35 to 40 now, but a 60 ceiling.

That is a tough call, and it is why Hostetler makes the big dollars.

[DirtySox]

Kiley chat:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-5-2-18/

[bmags]

fangraphs chat crashes my browser every time.

[fathom]

1 hour ago, DirtySox said:

Kiley chat:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-5-2-18/

I dislike idea of Swaggerty more and more every day