2018 MLB Draft

[GenericUserName]

Past few years seems like there has been a disconnect with the Draft writers rising college talent up the boards and the actual draft picks. Think Kyle Wright, whose strong finish had writers putting him in 1-1 conversation. McKay too. I think the writers see the college kids more and have a slight (not big) disconnect on how the teams are valuing the HS kids.

 

Fair point, but I think its also true that because college players generally play against better competition during the season, they have more time to have their stock rise for both draft writers and team scouts.

[GenericUserName]

Prep Baseball Report came out with their Top 100 high school draft prospects. You need a subscription to see the whole thing, but they show the top 10 for free.

 

1) Matthew Liberatore LHP

2) Brice Turang SS

3) Ethan Hankins RHP

4) Jarred Kelenic OF

5) Mason Denaburg C/RHP

6) Slade Cecconi RHP

7) Nander De Sedas SS

8) Alek Thomas OF

9) Triston Casas 1B

10) Cole Wilcox RHP

 

This is the first time I'm seeing Liberatore at #1 and they are definitely the highest on Alek Thomas. It appears they are lower on Kumar Rocker than most people.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Prep Baseball Report came out with their Top 100 high school draft prospects. You need a subscription to see the whole thing, but they show the top 10 for free.

 

1) Matthew Liberatore LHP

2) Brice Turang SS

3) Ethan Hankins RHP

4) Jarred Kelenic OF

5) Mason Denaburg C/RHP

6) Slade Cecconi RHP

7) Nander De Sedas SS

8) Alek Thomas OF

9) Triston Casas 1B

10) Cole Wilcox RHP

 

This is the first time I'm seeing Liberatore at #1 and they are definitely the highest on Alek Thomas. It appears they are lower on Kumar Rocker than most people.

 

No offense, and I know this isn't for me anyway, but I have a hard time caring about these rankings until the season starts for these kids next year. It's wasted effort for me to worry about whose stock will stay the exact same in 8 months.

 

I do enjoy seeing the names though, as I can at least familiarize myself with names to watch for on Twitter.

[BlackSox13]

Agree with chili. It's fun reading the early projections but they will change as the 2018 college/HS seasons progress.

[Dominikk85]

If Turang is off the board and Singer falls I could also see the Sox going for singer. Sox need some hitting but they have a great history in developing pitchers and getting a potential ace is nice and you could always trade for a bat.

 

Yeah ideally you take the great up the middle prospect but if no relatively "safe" (which is relative of course as there is no totally safe draft pick) great up the middle prospect is available and they have to chose between a good corner bat and a talented but high risk up the middle prospect they might go pitcher and use the strength of their player developement system.

Edited October 8, 2017 by GermanSock

[Dominikk85]

Regarding kelenic it is always tough when picking outfielders because you don't know if they can stay in center. Unless it is a super elite bat usually a corner of is not worth a top5 pick but if he can stay in center that gives his value a lot of boost.

 

Sure if he is bryce harper that doesn't matter but generally if you pick a hs outfielder that high you want him to be a plus producer if he is a slightly above average bat (like a 105 wRC+) because there is a good chance (say 50% or so) that he reaches that.

 

So unless they think kelenic is a Harper kind of bat they key is probably wether they think he can stay in center. If he can he is probably a good pick at 4 if not not so much.

[hi8is]

If Turang is off the board and Singer falls I could also see the Sox going for singer. Sox need some hitting but they have a great history in developing pitchers and getting a potential ace is nice and you could always trade for a bat.

 

Yeah ideally you take the great up the middle prospect but if no relatively "safe" (which is relative of course as there is no totally safe draft pick) great up the middle prospect is available and they have to chose between a good corner bat and a talented but high risk up the middle prospect they might go pitcher and use the strength of their player developement system.

If the BPA at 4 is a hs or college SP then by all means, draft away. I have a feeling that I'll be a happy camper with whomever we select but also suspect that I'll have some jealousy of at least one who goes above us.

[Dunt]

I 100% think the Sox are going HS pick at #4. The only college player I think they'd consider is Singer and I think he doesnt get past Philly.

[bmags]

I don't think BPA is that obvious especially at #4. And I think it's likely sox will be tied to Kelenic a little bit until pre draft just because we have clearly seen him so much and overcash has been on the record praising his maturity, approach and bat speed.

 

But we may also end up with a guy at #4 who people thought could go 1-1 or 1-2 and things change. I just want a fairly high ceiling, and though less exciting I think Singer has TOR potential obviously. We just lack good athletes with any sort of approach in our middle of the field positions past Robert.

[Lillian]

I don't think BPA is that obvious especially at #4. And I think it's likely sox will be tied to Kelenic a little bit until pre draft just because we have clearly seen him so much and overcash has been on the record praising his maturity, approach and bat speed.

 

But we may also end up with a guy at #4 who people thought could go 1-1 or 1-2 and things change. I just want a fairly high ceiling, and though less exciting I think Singer has TOR potential obviously. We just lack good athletes with any sort of approach in our middle of the field positions past Robert.

 

Moncada?

 

[oneofthemikes]

[/b]

 

Moncada?

 

Pretty sure he meant remaining in the minor league system.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

Why do people like Singer again?? No one has answered that for me..

[bmags]

Prototypical sized college pitcher with excellent mid-90s fastball with movement and a plus slider that he can control. Played at highest level of college baseball and dominated.

 

That.

[OmarComing25]

I get the size and stuff argument, but did he really dominate though? A 3.21 ERA, 9.21 K/9 and 1.21 WHIP isn't exactly overwhelming, especially when you compare those numbers to other SEC pitchers like Faedo and Fulmer.

[bmags]

I get the size and stuff argument, but did he really dominate though? A 3.21 ERA, 9.21 K/9 and 1.21 WHIP isn't exactly overwhelming, especially when you compare those numbers to other SEC pitchers like Faedo and Fulmer.

 

I was talking about the CWS.

[GenericUserName]

I get the size and stuff argument, but did he really dominate though? A 3.21 ERA, 9.21 K/9 and 1.21 WHIP isn't exactly overwhelming, especially when you compare those numbers to other SEC pitchers like Faedo and Fulmer.

 

Are you comparing all of their sophomore years or Faedo and Fulmer junior years against Singer's sophomore?

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

In no way, shape, or form did Singer dominate. THAT is why he makes me nervous as a 1-4 pick.. I just do not like it (things can change).

[hi8is]

In no way, shape, or form did Singer dominate. THAT is why he makes me nervous as a 1-4 pick.. I just do not like it (things can change).

Things can change being the mantra... if we do go pitching - I sure hope it's a prep. Otherwise, give me the best available bat up the middle.

[BlackSox13]

Yeah, Fulmer isn't the best pitcher to bring up when discussing Singer. Fulmer thrived on college hitters swinging at his stuff off the plate and we've all seen how that didn't translate well for him in professional ball. But, Fulmer has made good progress and surprised many with the chance he got in September. Singer is already a strike thrower so his ERA being higher is not that surprising. The Sox had ALOT of work to do just to get Fulmer to where he is and is still a work in progress. Singer appears to need work on refining his pitches which to me is easier to coach.

 

Fulmer was and still is a thrower whereas Singer is a pitcher. If they were coming out of the draft together, I'd take Singer over Fulmer and I'm not factoring in their size difference either. Taking size into consideration, Singer would be an absolute slam dunk for me.

 

And yes. I know I said I was going to hold off on this but I can't help it, y'all have lured me in.

[hi8is]

And yes. I know I said I was going to hold off on this but I can't help it, y'all have lured me in.

It's a given that everything changes in the next 8 months... but... there isn't going to be all that much else for us to do for a while here other than endlessly chase our "draft prospect tails".

[ptatc]

Things can change being the mantra... if we do go pitching - I sure hope it's a prep. Otherwise, give me the best available bat up the middle.

The draft is such a crapshoot. They should take the player they think is going to be the best regardless of position or level.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Past few years seems like there has been a disconnect with the Draft writers rising college talent up the boards and the actual draft picks. Think Kyle Wright, whose strong finish had writers putting him in 1-1 conversation. McKay too. I think the writers see the college kids more and have a slight (not big) disconnect on how the teams are valuing the HS kids.

 

 

Kyle Wright wasn't going to take the discount that Royce Lewis did though. That's a huge factor for teams like the Twins who had multiple picks in the top 50. They got a discount at #1 and then paid a tough HS signing multiple times throughout the rest of the draft. Hunter Greene was the best player in the draft and the Reds paid him accordingly. Mackenzie Gore was the best HS pitcher but also was cheaper than Wright or McKay would have been in the same spot. Tampa Bay and Atlanta were willing to pay around $7 million for the top college talent that fell into their laps.

[bmags]

Kyle Wright wasn't going to take the discount that Royce Lewis did though. That's a huge factor for teams like the Twins who had multiple picks in the top 50. They got a discount at #1 and then paid a tough HS signing multiple times throughout the rest of the draft. Hunter Greene was the best player in the draft and the Reds paid him accordingly. Mackenzie Gore was the best HS pitcher but also was cheaper than Wright or McKay would have been in the same spot. Tampa Bay and Atlanta were willing to pay around $7 million for the top college talent that fell into their laps.

 

I don't see any reason why this changes this year, though, which is why I'd bet the #1 overall pick will not be a college pitcher.

[Y2Jimmy0]

I don't see any reason why this changes this year, though, which is why I'd bet the #1 overall pick will not be a college pitcher.

 

 

You are probably correct about that. However, Detroit, San Francisco, Philly, and the Sox don't have extra comp picks to save money for which could prompt them to just take the best player regardless. I think HS guys are the top 5 in the class anyway though.

[southsider2k5]

You are probably correct about that. However, Detroit, San Francisco, Philly, and the Sox don't have extra comp picks to save money for which could prompt them to just take the best player regardless. I think HS guys are the top 5 in the class anyway though.

 

The Sox have always taken BPA with their top pick, even when they knew it was going to cost them dearly, as it did with Rodon for example.