2018 MLB Draft

[bmags]

That Griffin Roberts profile in there kinda sounds like a White Sox mid-round pick.

 

Griffin Roberts, RHR, Wake Forest – Roberts has a nasty slider — I guess I’ll call it a 70 — and, at 81-84 mph, it may end up being a Luke Gregerson-type weapon if he can stay healthy. Roberts is the Friday starter for Wake after a career in relief and sits 89-93 mph with occasional above-average life and a changeup that flashes average. He has fringe to average command. I project him as a reliever despite his current role, since I can’t think of a starter in the big leagues with fringe-to-average everything and a 70 breaking ball — those guys end up in relief — not to mention that Roberts loads his arm late, and his elbow gets high in back. Roberts is a 22-year-old junior who was drafted but opted not to sign last year. In terms of signability, he’s effectively a senior, since he won’t be going back to play an age-23 college season. For a club interested in a money-saving quick mover, that could slide him higher in the draft than the fourth- to fifth-round area his talent suggests.

[fathom]

Why do I feel like the team in the top 5 that thinks Swaggerty is the best bat in the draft is us? Really wouldn't be mad about either him or Bohm at this point.

 

Agree with both comments. Hopefully Swaggerty ends the season hot as that batting average in a less than amazing conference is hard to get excited about

[GenericUserName]

New MLBPipeline Inbox just came out and it had some interesting notes. They should be coming out with an updated draft top 100 by late April, but for now they gave what is probably the current top 10:

1. Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn

2. Nick Madrigal, SS/2B, Oregon State

3. Matt Liberatore, LHP, Mountain Ridge HS (Ariz.)

4. Shane McClanahan, LHP, South Florida

5. Carter Stewart, RHP, Eau Galle HS (Fla.)

6. Brady Singer, RHP, Florida

7. Travis Swaggerty, OF, South Alabama

8. Alex Bohm, 3B, Wichita State

9. Ryan Rolison, LHP, Mississippi

10. Ethan Hankins, RHP, Forsyth Central HS (Ga.)

 

They also listed Kelenic, Gorman, and Kowar as other names to watch. So that fits with the idea that Gorman has really fallen and Hankins is down. I'm surprised I'm not hearing more about Stewart if he rose that high. Also apparently Madrigal is back playing and destroying again. It was mentioned multiple times that it seems like Mize has separated himself from the rest of the group and that several executives had him at 1-1 on their board. He also fits the Tigers profile, so that almost seems like a foregone conclusion at this point. Finally Mayo talked about Jordyn Adams and said he was one of the fastest guys they have seen in the past several drafts. If we end up going with Bohm or Madrigal in the first and Alek Thomas is gone by the second, he could be a nice pick.

Edited April 6, 2018 by GenericUserName

[DirtySox]

New MLBPipeline Inbox just came out and it had some interesting notes. They should be coming out with an updated draft top 100 by late April, but for now they gave what is probably the current top 10:

1. Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn

2. Nick Madrigal, SS/2B, Oregon State

3. Matt Liberatore, LHP, Mountain Ridge HS (Ariz.)

4. Shane McClanahan, LHP, South Florida

5. Carter Stewart, RHP, Eau Galle HS (Fla.)

6. Brady Singer, RHP, Florida

7. Travis Swaggerty, OF, South Alabama

8. Alex Bohm, 3B, Wichita State

9. Ryan Rolison, LHP, Mississippi

10. Ethan Hankins, RHP, Forsyth Central HS (Ga.)

 

They also listed Kelenic, Gorman, and Kowar as other names to watch. So that fits with the idea that Gorman has really fallen and Hankins is down. I'm surprised I'm not hearing more about Stewart if he rose that high. Also apparently Madrigal is back playing and destroying again. It was mentioned multiple times that it seems like Mize has separated himself from the rest of the group and that several executives had him at 1-1 on their board. He also fits the Tigers profile, so that almost seems like a foregone conclusion at this point. Finally Mayo talked about Jordyn Adams and said he was one of the fastest guys they have seen in the past several drafts. If we end up going with Bohm or Madrigal in the first and Alek Thomas is gone by the second, he could be a nice pick.

 

Thanks. There was a piece about some risers on BA two days ago that has Carter Stewart in it as well. Also I think Mayo is wrong on Madrigal. I don't see him in the last few Box Scores at all.

 

[GenericUserName]

Thanks. There was a piece about some risers on BA two days ago that has Carter Stewart in it as well. Also I think Mayo is wrong on Madrigal. I don't see him in the last few Box Scores at all.

Yeah, I thought so as well. I'm pretty sure those are his stats from before the injury. We probably would have heard a lot more about his performance if he came back and did that right away. I guess its just a mistake. I'm pretty sure he also called Jeremy Eierman Johnny Eierman in the video, so someone didn't fact check that article haha

[bmags]

When Mayo talks about prospects its clear the guy knows a lot but the mlb pipeline lists always strike me as just a "average' of all the other big pub lists like fangraphs, law and BA.

 

With Law I know I"m getting a select group of scouts opinions that usually previews guys that are about to rise/fall a lot sooner than the others. With Fangraphs, I know I'm getting Kiley/ELs own analysis influenced by industry analysis, but feels more their own. BA the same, but they always seem much more conservative and always higher on high-level-program college performers.

 

This might be wrong, but Callis just seems to seem like he summarizes everyones arguments together. There's value in that but I like the variance in the other 3 groups.

[Dam8610]

New MLBPipeline Inbox just came out and it had some interesting notes. They should be coming out with an updated draft top 100 by late April, but for now they gave what is probably the current top 10:

1. Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn

2. Nick Madrigal, SS/2B, Oregon State

3. Matt Liberatore, LHP, Mountain Ridge HS (Ariz.)

4. Shane McClanahan, LHP, South Florida

5. Carter Stewart, RHP, Eau Galle HS (Fla.)

6. Brady Singer, RHP, Florida

7. Travis Swaggerty, OF, South Alabama

8. Alex Bohm, 3B, Wichita State

9. Ryan Rolison, LHP, Mississippi

10. Ethan Hankins, RHP, Forsyth Central HS (Ga.)

 

They also listed Kelenic, Gorman, and Kowar as other names to watch. So that fits with the idea that Gorman has really fallen and Hankins is down. I'm surprised I'm not hearing more about Stewart if he rose that high. Also apparently Madrigal is back playing and destroying again. It was mentioned multiple times that it seems like Mize has separated himself from the rest of the group and that several executives had him at 1-1 on their board. He also fits the Tigers profile, so that almost seems like a foregone conclusion at this point. Finally Mayo talked about Jordyn Adams and said he was one of the fastest guys they have seen in the past several drafts. If we end up going with Bohm or Madrigal in the first and Alek Thomas is gone by the second, he could be a nice pick.

 

Still on McClanahan or Madrigal at 4, but starting to be okay with Swaggerty or Bohm as well.

[hi8is]

Really excited for the draft ( what’s new ) and hope that we pull a really nice coup in the later rounds. Having one of the highest pools should be put to good and creative use. Seems like this year is a very deep collection of players, from all accounts.

[DirtySox]

South Alabama Baseball

@WeAreSouth_BSB

9m

Travis Swaggerty leads off the game with a solo HR to LF, his sixth of the year, for a 1-0 Jaguar lead in T1.

#JagNation #WeAreSouth

[Chicago White Sox]

Realistically, what do we think Madrigal’s upside is? Can he become 4 to 5 WAR player? I just think picking top four (when we may not have this opportunity for quite some time) we have to select a guy who could be a potential star & Madrigal seems to be more about floor than ceiling from what I can tell.

[GenericUserName]

Realistically, what do we think Madrigal’s upside is? Can he become 4 to 5 WAR player? I just think picking top four (when we may not have this opportunity for quite some time) we have to select a guy who could be a potential star & Madrigal seems to be more about floor than ceiling from what I can tell.

I guess it really depends on whether you think he can hit homeruns with wood. He never really showed great power, and then he started this year hitting two in 6 games. If he comes back and still hits for power, he could be a fast riser with 20/20 potential, high average, good defense at second or average at short. Is that an annual 4 WAR player? Probably. Is he a superstar everyone talks about? Probably not.

[Dam8610]

I guess it really depends on whether you think he can hit homeruns with wood. He never really showed great power, and then he started this year hitting two in 6 games. If he comes back and still hits for power, he could be a fast riser with 20/20 potential, high average, good defense at second or average at short. Is that an annual 4 WAR player? Probably. Is he a superstar everyone talks about? Probably not.

 

 

Who's the superstar hitter in this draft, though? Swaggerty? Bohm? No one has really differentiated as that guy to this point. To me with Madrigal it comes down to how highly you rate the hit tool. He projects as a 5 tool, but almost all of them are 50s or 55s. If you're putting a 60 or higher on the hit tool, he's worth it. I also happen to think he could be the next Jose Altuve, and his swing mechanics look very similar to a younger Altuve.

 

If they're not going Madrigal, McClanahan is my next choice, maybe even my choice over Madrigal given the relative dearth of top LHSP talent in the system and recent developments with our MLB middle infielders.

Edited April 6, 2018 by Dam8610

[GenericUserName]

Who's the superstar hitter in this draft, though? Swaggerty? Bohm? No one has really differentiated as that guy to this point. To me with Madrigal it comes down to how highly you rate the hit tool. He projects as a 5 tool, but almost all of them are 50s or 55s. If you're putting a 60 or higher on the hit tool, he's worth it. I also happen to think he could be the next Jose Altuve, and his swing mechanics look very similar to a younger Altuve.

 

If they're not going Madrigal, McClanahan is my next choice, maybe even my choice over Madrigal given the relative dearth of top LHSP talent in the system and recent developments with our MLB middle infielders.

I just don't think he'll hit for as much power as Altuve because Altuve may be short, but he is pretty thick while Madrigal is basically a twig. I do think its disingenuous to say all his tools are 50s/55s because by all accounts the hit tool is a 6 or even 7, speed is at least a 6, and if he plays second then his fielding is probably a 6.

 

As for superstars, Kiley mentioned today that Bohm is not yet Kris Bryant, but he's not as far as most people would think. He could be a 50 bat with 60 GAME power, or even more power if he sells out for it a bit more. If he keeps it up he might be the superstar bat of this draft.

 

As for Swaggerty, I think he is safe yet has good upside because it sounds like he just changed his swing this year to go for more power, so he has time to refine that, and though he is a junior, he won't turn 21 until mid-August, so he is a year younger than some of the other guys in this draft. If you buy the bat and think he can get just a little more power, he could be a 20/20 guy with a high OBP and great CF defense.

 

I like McClanahan, but I am just so scared of drafting pitching this high because it always seems like its not a matter of if but when they get injured. I would rather use picks when we are picking later in the first round on pitchers that may have something wrong that we can fix.

[DirtySox]

Great college pitching match-up tonight. Casey Mize against Blaine Knight. About to start.

[Dam8610]

I just don't think he'll hit for as much power as Altuve because Altuve may be short, but he is pretty thick while Madrigal is basically a twig. I do think its disingenuous to say all his tools are 50s/55s because by all accounts the hit tool is a 6 or even 7, speed is at least a 6, and if he plays second then his fielding is probably a 6.

 

As for superstars, Kiley mentioned today that Bohm is not yet Kris Bryant, but he's not as far as most people would think. He could be a 50 bat with 60 GAME power, or even more power if he sells out for it a bit more. If he keeps it up he might be the superstar bat of this draft.

 

As for Swaggerty, I think he is safe yet has good upside because it sounds like he just changed his swing this year to go for more power, so he has time to refine that, and though he is a junior, he won't turn 21 until mid-August, so he is a year younger than some of the other guys in this draft. If you buy the bat and think he can get just a little more power, he could be a 20/20 guy with a high OBP and great CF defense.

 

I like McClanahan, but I am just so scared of drafting pitching this high because it always seems like its not a matter of if but when they get injured. I would rather use picks when we are picking later in the first round on pitchers that may have something wrong that we can fix.

 

I meant defense, arm, and power are 50s or 55s. Speed is 80 grade, and hit tool is 60 grade (you're putting it as high as 70 grade). That looks like a Top 5 pick to me. And obviously hoping for Altuve is a 99th percentile outcome, but pre-power outburst Altuve was a very good player as well. I do know if I'm Madrigal, I'm constantly studying Altuve's hitting mechanics.

 

If I use your hit grade on Madrigal, I have:

 

Hit: 70 | Power: 50 | Speed: 80 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50

 

Again, seems like a Top 5 pick to me.

[iamshack]

For me, I’ll just take an arm since none of these bats really seems to be unquestionably elite. I still have some interest in DeSedas or Kelenic, and maybe there is an opportunity to save some money there, but if we really believe in one of the arms that available, sign me up.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I watched some video of Bohm, and that dude has such a goofy looking body. I didn't see video of him fielding at 3B, but he's so tall and lanky that he just LOOKS like a 1B. Like a Richie Sexson type body, although probably not as tall. It was one set of highlights, and I've never seen him in person, but he just didn't look very athletic and flexible from watching him run.

[DirtySox]

Aaron Fitt

@aaronfitt

2m2 minutes ago

Strong weekend for @WeAreSouth_BSB OF Travis Swaggerty, who just hit his 2nd homer in 2 days. Also has 4 walks in 2 days, and used his speed to leg out an infield single.

Edited April 7, 2018 by DirtySox

[caulfield12]

What?€™s Swaggerty?€™s comp?

 

Benintendi in CF? Hopefully not Jeremy Reed...

 

http://www.the3rdmanin.com/travis-swaggert...-draft-college/

Found a good story on him...seems like a little bit of Dustin Pedroia quality.

Edited April 8, 2018 by caulfield12

[DirtySox]

Wichita St. Baseball

@GoShockersBSB

20s

B3 | BOHM goes the dynamite! @BOHM5 hits a solo shot to give the Shockers a 4-0 lead.

[DirtySox]

Kiley McDaniel

@kileymcd

57s

Following up on that: Merritt Island HS (FL) righty Mason Denaburg (UF commit) has biceps tendonitis and is shut down. Velocity was down for two starts, so this was the right move. Had worked his way into 10-15 overall range in a year that has lots of 1st round prep arms.

[DirtySox]

Kiley McDaniel

@kileymcd

Been hearing this for a month but hearing it more now: the Tigers are looking at Waukesha HS (WI) center fielder Jarred Kelenic as the #1 overall pick. Not just a rumor designed to get other player's prices down. Auburn RHP Casey Mize is still the favorite right now to go 1-1.

[DirtySox]

Kiley McDaniel

@kileymcd

53s

UConn lefty Tim Cate has been shut down as a precaution. Stuff has been down a bit in a starting role this season. Smaller guy with an easy plus breaker, still has a chance to go in the 2nd round even as a pure reliever, once healthy.

[bmags]

That Kelenic stuff has been interesting. Still, I file it under "misinformation", I will be skeptical until it's announced/deal is announced there.

[GenericUserName]

That Kelenic stuff has been interesting. Still, I file it under "misinformation", I will be skeptical until it's announced/deal is announced there.

This guy from Scout also heard the connection. Its interesting because I liked Kelenic from the beginning, but I didn't think he would go as high as 4 let alone be a possibility at 1-1. I really like how the top of the board is separating itself right now. If Kelenic is in the top tier, you are looking a him, Bohm, Swaggerty, and Madrigal all as possible bats and Mize and McClanahan as possible pitchers. We would be assured of getting one of those guys and I really wouldn't even be mad if it were one of the pitchers because both seem like they could be elite.

 

Heard this as well, mentioned it a few times. There are connections there. Mentioned it on a few podcasts and in my Tigers Tendency piece. A lot of smoke to this https://t.co/YRdE9Ig5V0

— jeff ellis (@jeffMLBdraft) April 9, 2018

Edited April 9, 2018 by GenericUserName