2018 MLB Draft

[Flash]

10 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

We need pitching because two of our top prospects had rough nights?

Completely mischaracterizes my comment...we need pitching because it is not obvious our youngsters can be relied on. For all the buzz about Kopech, he has gotten shelled his last two starts and has been far from dominant in Charlotte (ERA almost 5). I believe there is reason to be concerned with Giolito, Hansen and Rodon although I hope I'm wrong. Fulmer cannot be counted on and, Cease was profiling as a bright spot but got his ears pinned back in A ball. This constitutes more than 'a rough night'. Its easy to fall in love with pitching prospects but lets not get blinded into believing this is a dominant (and durable) group. There are several clubs (Braves, Padres and maybe Yankees) who, on paper, appear to be every bit as loaded with young pitching talent as Sox. I say we need another rotation piece or two.   

[Sarava]

10 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

We need pitching because two of our top prospects had rough nights?

Obviously you don't over-react to one bad night. But IMO, in a system with few needs, SP is probably the biggest need. And that was already the case before last night. You have to expect/assume some busts or injuries will derail some of these guys. Another top notch SP prospect would be very ideal. I don't want Singer though.

[Dick Allen]

14 minutes ago, Flash said:

Completely mischaracterizes my comment...we need pitching because it is not obvious our youngsters can be relied on. For all the buzz about Kopech, he has gotten shelled his last two starts and has been far from dominant in Charlotte (ERA almost 5). I believe there is reason to be concerned with Giolito, Hansen and Rodon although I hope I'm wrong. Fulmer cannot be counted on and, Cease was profiling as a bright spot but got his ears pinned back in A ball. This constitutes more than 'a rough night'. Its easy to fall in love with pitching prospects but lets not get blinded into believing this is a dominant (and durable) group. There are several clubs (Braves, Padres and maybe Yankees) who, on paper, appear to be every bit as loaded with young pitching talent as Sox. I say we need another rotation piece or two.   

If none of those guys make it, the White Sox will have several more top 5 picks to select pitchers. They just need to take the top player on their board regardless of position.

 

If everyone wants to be like the Cubs, exactly how many of Theos draft picks have started games for the Cubs?

Edited May 12, 2018 by Dick Allen

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, Sarava said:

Obviously you don't over-react to one bad night. But IMO, in a system with few needs, SP is probably the biggest need. And that was already the case before last night. You have to expect/assume some busts or injuries will derail some of these guys. Another top notch SP prospect would be very ideal. I don't want Singer though.

This is all very fair.  But when you start your argument off with “did you see how Kopech & Cease did last night” you are setting yourself for ridicule.  

Look, an argument can be made for more pitching.  I have said it before, but we have six guys in the system that must develop into the front three of our future rotation.  Those are Kopech, Hansen, Lopez, Giolito, Dunning, & Cease.  Rodon is sort of a wild card and anything we can from him over the next 3 2/3 seasons is gravy.

So let’s look at where those guys stand.  Lopez is in the pros and is flashing TOR potential.  To me, he’s at worst a solid #3 and potentially a fringe #1 type if the command takes a big leap forward.  Then you got Giolito who has looked terrible all-around.  I’m not giving up on him, but the deterioration of his stuff is the most concerning to me.  They’ll continue to give him an extended look and hopefully he can get in sync and at least become a solid back-end option.  He’s definitely a high risk guy at this point.  The other guy who should be in the mix at some point this year is Kopech.  I have zero concerns about him whatsoever.  Obviously he has moments where he loses his command and sometimes his composure, but this kid is the real deal.  Two bad starts won’t change that view for me.

Regarding the other three prospects, Dunning & Cease have seen their stock rise quite a bit this year.  MLBpipeline has already made some revisions to their top 100 list and Dunning moved up 15 spots.  The kid is simply competitor with plus command and I have full confidence he’ll end up being a quality #3 starter.  Cease’s potential is insane and his start to the 2018 season has been super impressive despite last night’s debacle.  To me, durability is the big question with him and that makes him somewhat high guy.  The only guy who has taken some strides backward is Hansen and that’s only due to health.  If he comes back in the next month and performs well in 2018, he’ll cement his status as a top 40 prospect.

So long-story short, I think he we have enough high-end pitching prospects to fill confident we can fill out the front-end of our rotation.  Doesn’t hurt to add more depth, but I would consider the IF a much greater area of organneed.

[Lillian]

I love our pitching prospects, and their potential is indeed very intriguing. The thing that really worries me is the injury risk. It has gotten to be such a major issue, in this era. It's a little ironic, in that Tommy John Surgery has saved many careers, yet there seem to be so many more young pitchers experiencing the injury, requiring TJS.  They throw so many fewer pitches, yet they get injured so frequently. It seems like you have to have a significant stock pile of good pitchers to help mitigate the risk. I remember the days when Billy Pierce, Early Wynn, Gary Peters and those guys would take the mound, every 4TH day and go the whole 9 innings, unless they just didn't have it. My, how the game has changed.

Edited May 12, 2018 by Lillian

[caulfield12]

44 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

This is all very fair.  But when you start your argument off with “did you see how Kopech & Cease did last night” you are setting yourself for ridicule.  

Look, an argument can be made for more pitching.  I have said it before, but we have six guys in the system that must develop into the front three of our future rotation.  Those are Kopech, Hansen, Lopez, Giolito, Dunning, & Cease.  Rodon is sort of a wild card and anything we can from him over the next 3 2/3 seasons is gravy.

So let’s look at where those guys stand.  Lopez is in the pros and is flashing TOR potential.  To me, he’s at worst a solid #3 and potentially a fringe #1 type if the command takes a big leap forward.  Then you got Giolito who has looked terrible all-around.  I’m not giving up on him, but the deterioration of his stuff is the most concerning to me.  They’ll continue to give him an extended look and hopefully he can get in sync and at least become a solid back-end option.  He’s definitely a high risk guy at this point.  The other guy who should be in the mix at some point this year is Kopech.  I have zero concerns about him whatsoever.  Obviously he has moments where he loses his command and sometimes his composure, but this kid is the real deal.  Two bad starts won’t change that view for me.

Regarding the other three prospects, Dunning & Cease have seen their stock rise quite a bit this year.  MLBpipeline has already made some revisions to their top 100 list and Dunning moved up 15 spots.  The kid is simply competitor with plus command and I have full confidence he’ll end up being a quality #3 starter.  Cease’s potential is insane and his start to the 2018 season has been super impressive despite last night’s debacle.  To me, durability is the big question with him and that makes him somewhat high guy.  The only guy who has taken some strides backward is Hansen and that’s only due to health.  If he comes back in the next month and performs well in 2018, he’ll cement his status as a top 40 prospect.

So long-story short, I think he we have enough high-end pitching prospects to fill confident we can fill out the front-end of our rotation.  Doesn’t hurt to add more depth, but I would consider the IF a much greater area of organneed.

Why?  They draft Madrigal or Bohm, everything is set but 1b...and still control Sanchez through 2021, too. Plus Davidson, 2022.

[TheTruth05]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

This is all very fair.  But when you start your argument off with “did you see how Kopech & Cease did last night” you are setting yourself for ridicule.  

Look, an argument can be made for more pitching.  I have said it before, but we have six guys in the system that must develop into the front three of our future rotation.  Those are Kopech, Hansen, Lopez, Giolito, Dunning, & Cease.  Rodon is sort of a wild card and anything we can from him over the next 3 2/3 seasons is gravy.

So let’s look at where those guys stand.  Lopez is in the pros and is flashing TOR potential.  To me, he’s at worst a solid #3 and potentially a fringe #1 type if the command takes a big leap forward.  Then you got Giolito who has looked terrible all-around.  I’m not giving up on him, but the deterioration of his stuff is the most concerning to me.  They’ll continue to give him an extended look and hopefully he can get in sync and at least become a solid back-end option.  He’s definitely a high risk guy at this point.  The other guy who should be in the mix at some point this year is Kopech.  I have zero concerns about him whatsoever.  Obviously he has moments where he loses his command and sometimes his composure, but this kid is the real deal.  Two bad starts won’t change that view for me.

Regarding the other three prospects, Dunning & Cease have seen their stock rise quite a bit this year.  MLBpipeline has already made some revisions to their top 100 list and Dunning moved up 15 spots.  The kid is simply competitor with plus command and I have full confidence he’ll end up being a quality #3 starter.  Cease’s potential is insane and his start to the 2018 season has been super impressive despite last night’s debacle.  To me, durability is the big question with him and that makes him somewhat high guy.  The only guy who has taken some strides backward is Hansen and that’s only due to health.  If he comes back in the next month and performs well in 2018, he’ll cement his status as a top 40 prospect.

So long-story short, I think he we have enough high-end pitching prospects to fill confident we can fill out the front-end of our rotation.  Doesn’t hurt to add more depth, but I would consider the IF a much greater area of organneed.

I agree with this post so much. If I'm the Sox I'm taking BPA and honestly best case scenario he either forces himself on the field with Sox or he becomes a valuable trade chip to trade for the hole the Sox want to plug when they're competing.

 

Just for fun, I can see our final rotation panning out to Kopech,Rodon,Hansen,Lopez, Dunning.

[Lillian]

Just for fun, for me, I'm trying to decide my personal preference, among the college players, which I prefer. Would most of you rank the college arms as follows: Mize, Singer, McClanahan and the college bats: Madrigal, Bohm, India and Bart, in that order?

Edited May 12, 2018 by Lillian

[daggins]

18 minutes ago, Lillian said:

Just for fun, for me, I'm trying to decide my personal preference, among the college players, which I prefer. Would most of you rank the college arms as follows: Mize, Singer, McClanahan and the college bats: Madrigal, Bohm, India and Bart, in that order?

Arms - yes

Bats - I'd go Bohm, Madrigal, Bart, India.

[Flash]

Mize, Singer and McClanahan all got hit hard last night. Makes things even fuzzier.

[Eminor3rd]

18 hours ago, Flash said:

News flash....Kopech getting lit up and ERA close to 5...Cease got shelled in W-S. Rodon and Hansen are quetion marks and Gilolito and Fulmer look pitiful. Sox need pitching. If Singer makes it to 4, we need to grab him. And, by the way, he is a damn good pitcher.

You can add any type of talent in free agency. You can trade any type of player for any other type of player.

It makes zero sense to draft for need in baseball. You take the best talent you see and figure out how he fits in later.

[DirtySox]

India hit his 16th HR this afternoon. He certainly looks the part at the plate.

[Lillian]

This "best player available" concept continues to be a source of debate. Here is a circumstance where it gets a little more complicated. Team A is in a rebuild and targets a date 3 years down the road, when they estimate their window of contention will open. They have some really high level, elite prospects, who are just beginning their Major League careers, but are anticipated to be the cornerstones of the rebuild. Those couple of players are pretty much set, as far as their positions go. At the same time, there are a few holes, which are likely to have to be filled, to complete the rebuild.

Now, the front office uses a very high draft pick, to take a guy, who is expected to be ready to contribute, just about the same time that their window of contention opens. Unfortunately, he is pretty much pegged at one of the positions, which are already taken by one of those key, young core players, and is not a likely candidate to fill one of the holes. Ok, so you can trade the pick. The problem is that you are trading him, before he has maximized his value, because he hasn't yet logged any significant playing time in the Majors. Nevertheless, he has no place to play, and other teams know that. You therefore end up trading him, from a disadvantaged position, and not receiving full value. 

From one perspective, it can make sense to think about who fits best, all other things being equal. If you have your pick of several players, who are all ranked about the same, which seems to be the case in this year's draft, what is wrong with picking a guy who fits? It comes down to the simple fact that it may not be obvious who that "best player available" is. In the that circumstance, what is wrong with selecting the guy who could fill a need, versus a player, who will likely be blocked? Perhaps I'm stating the obvious, but so often reading the assertion that; "it's just better to take the "best player available", justifies reiterating that it's not always that simple.

Moreover, a player might be the "best player available," at a particular position, but not necessarily, if he moves to another position. Madrigal is a case in point. To me, he is the best second baseman in the draft. If you move him to short, he may be adequate, but perhaps not the best SS available. We know that Moncada is a lock at second base, probably until he becomes a free agent. I really don't want a guy at SS who is not an outstanding defensive player. Therefore, while Madrigal is a very polished hitter, abeit without significant power, he is not an elite SS. If I'm drafting #4, I want a guy who could be elite, at his position. 

Edited May 12, 2018 by Lillian

[bmags]

If we picked 20, I’d agree. But we pick 4. You don’t take a guy in a lower tier because of org need. 

Now you may have two players rated similarly, but that’s a diff story.

[DirtySox]

Oregon St Stanford about to get rolling.  Top 50 draft prospect Bubic pitching for Stanford against Madrigal, Larnach and company. 

[Lillian]

17 minutes ago, bmags said:

If we picked 20, I’d agree. But we pick 4. You don’t take a guy in a lower tier because of org need. 

Now you may have two players rated similarly, but that’s a diff story.

You just echoed my point. Of course, you don't "take a guy in a lower tier, because of organizational need". There is no argument there and I'm not suggesting that. I stated that when there are several players, all of whom are rated very closely, with no consensus regarding who is the best, that is when other considerations could be valid. At this point Madrigal and India are a couple of places apart in the ranking. Several mock drafts have Madrigal at #4 and India at #5 or 6. That is clearly the same tier. And if you move Madrigal to SS or 3RD, those same rankings could well end up being reversed. You do make a very good point, regarding staying within the same tier. It really is not as significant what number pick a team has, as how much separates the selections in question. This year, most drafts seem to say that Mize is a clear #1 and it gets very crowded and subjective after him. Therefore, even drafting as high as #2, you can't really state that anyone is clearly "the best player available". There is simply no consensus. Who would you put in that second tier, following Mize?

Edited May 12, 2018 by Lillian

[DirtySox]

Madrigal with a 2 RBI 3B against Bubic. Just missed a HR.

[Lillian]

Yes, and earlier today, India hit another HR, with 2 RBI's and walk

[Jack Parkman]

Seems like a crappy year to have a top 5 pick. Sounds like it is really Mize and a bunch of meh. Still like McClanahan because of the upside, but actually I can't really complain about much. I hope Hahn/Hostetler stay far away from Singer. Wouldn't surprise me to see him slip to the back of the 1st. 91 MPH won't cut it from a RHP in today's MLB. 

Edited May 12, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[DirtySox]

5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Seems like a crappy year to have a top 5 pick. Sounds like it is really Mize and a bunch of meh. Still like McClanahan because of the upside, but actually I can't really complain about much. I hope Hahn/Hostetler stay far away from Singer. Wouldn't surprise me to see him slip to the back of the 1st. 91 MPH won't cut it from a RHP in today's MLB. 

It's certainly not a top heavy class. Tons of prep depth. This is where saving some money at number 4 could be a big deal.

[Boopa1219]

Right now I’m kind of hoping for Joey Bart. 

He’s the most advanced catcher to enter the draft since Wieters in 2007. He calls him own games (apparently Will Bannefield does too as a high schooler) and is very advanced behind the plate. He could be a fast riser through the system because unlike Zack Collins, he already knows how to catch. And unlike Collins, he’ll projects as a catcher long term. Everyone is saying that he’ll never hit for a high average but the power is real and he’s improved his plate disclipine when looking at his numbers.

It seem more often than not, the teams who win in October are strong behind the plate.

 

[DirtySox]

Larnach has some serious pop. Just knocked Bubic out of the game with an oppo HR. His 15th.

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, DirtySox said:

It's certainly not a top heavy class. Tons of prep depth. This is where saving some money at number 4 could be a big deal.

Yeah, this is where I wish MLB allowed draft pick trading. If they could get a guy to sign for 1-1.5 million underslot I wouldn't complain. Since you can't trade the draft pick, I wouldn't be opposed to taking someone mocked in the 7-15 range that the Sox really like rather than a top guy who's going to take up all of their slot dollars. 

[fathom]

Is India playing himself into top 5 projected range where you wouldn't be able to get him under slot?

[DirtySox]

 

Kiley McDaniel

@kileymcd

Watching UCF/Oklahoma this weekend and my big takeaway is Kyler Murray is much better than I expected: 70 runner, big bat speed, hitting rockets all over the place. Likely doesn’t sign this year so may be the top college bat for 2019 (unless he’s Russell Wilson).