2018 MLB Draft

[bmags]

9 minutes ago, OmarComing25 said:

Which is why Ted Williams’ 1953 season is so nuts. He hit .407 with a BABIP of .353

This blew my mind until I looked up the game sample. Wasn’t sure how many HRs were required for that.

[thxfrthmmrs]

9 minutes ago, bmags said:

This blew my mind until I looked up the game sample. Wasn’t sure how many HRs were required for that.

You have to consider most pitchers were striking out averaging 3 to 4 K's per 9 innings back then. Lower K's usually yields lower BABIP

[bmags]

5 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

You have to consider most pitchers were striking out averaging 3 to 4 K's per 9 innings back then. Lower K's usually yields lower BABIP

I mean sure but his actual Batting Average was 50 points higher than his Babip which requires more non in play outcomes like strikeouts and home runs.

[Baker]

I haven’t heard much talk recently about Shane McClanahan. He’s a lot to dream on with a large upside  

 

 

 

A lefty with a 70 fastball, 60 change. Even with erratic control he could be a monster out of the pen. Or possibly an ace with refinement. Singer seems like an SP 3 and not a real impact guy. 

[caulfield12]

With Cease and Giolito already having had TJS, just not sure you can add more risk with such a high pick.

Better to go with a TJS guy in the 2nd or 3rd imo.  We've been drafting "high upside plays" like Beck, Adams and Hansen in the second round and hoping that ONE pops.

Now if they're absolutely convinced Singer is the next Aaron Nola/Buehler/Michael Wacha and NOT the next Carson Fulmer, go for it.

Edited May 21, 2018 by caulfield12

[thxfrthmmrs]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

I mean sure but his actual Batting Average was 50 points higher than his Babip which requires more non in play outcomes like strikeouts and home runs.

To have a higher BA than BABIP you generally need more HR and less K. My point being pitchers in TW’s era don’t strikeout guys at nearly the same rate today’s pitcher do, which generally leads to lower BABIP for hitters in his era. You almost don’t see BABIP lower than BA in the current era, let alone by 50 (which I agree is still a tremendous feat). 

[Chicago White Sox]

Apologize if this was already posted:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Lynn_Henning/status/997863572276502528?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.soxmachine.com%2F2018%2F05%2F20%2Fwhite-sox-mock-draft-roundup-nick-madrigal-leads-the-way%2F&tfw_creator=soxmachine&tfw_site=soxmachine

 

Tigers have a Draft Day muddled mess: Have become wary of Casey Mize for undisclosed reasons. Don't like Joey Bart's strikeouts. And know Brady Singer has no real plus-pitch. Of course, this is the year they draft First Overall.

[Chicago White Sox]

Really think they’re going with Kelenic with an underslot deal.

[caulfield12]

Casey Mize knows the knocks are coming as the MLB draft looms

Mize has a unique profile, but he continues as the smart choice for the number one overall pick.

https://www.blessyouboys.com/2018/5/18/17359544/mlb-draft-2018-casey-mize-detroit-tigers-joey-bart-alex-faedo

 

In an excellent piece from Katie Strang of The Athletic, Mize recently addressed some of the nagging concerns about his injury history and splitter usage. As he explained, he doesn’t characterize his version as a true splitter, but as more of a hybrid split-change.

What people don’t really understand about it, like who haven’t seen the grip or haven’t seen me throw it or talk to me about it — the first thing is I don’t have very big hands, and so I don’t split the ball, like, almost in half like a lot of people think,” Mize explained in a conversation with The Athletic’s Max Bultman this past weekend.

Research continues to correlate velocity and usage with arm injury. As to various breaking balls and change-ups, there is basically nothing concrete to suggest any particular concerns with off-speed pitches.

...

Mize did have a bit of arm trouble last year, but as he detailed to The Athletic, he and his coaches at Auburn did a lot of video analysis, concluding it was actually his old slider grip that was the culprit. Mize revamped his grip and approach to throwing the slider this year, and the results were an improved pitch with sharper tilt to it. After a monster campaign for Auburn this spring, he’s also got results in the form of 89 innings with a 124:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio to say he’s clearly the best amateur pitcher in the country.

It’s perfectly natural to have injury concerns about a pitcher who is about to command a bonus of $7 million (or more) and a premium draft pick. However, worries about Mize seem like much ado about nothing. He just wrapped up one of the better college seasons you will ever see in a tough SEC, and could doubtless get outs in the major leagues as he is. If you’re worried about the splitter, take comfort in the fact that his new cutter and improved slider should mean he can use the splitter as another out-pitch almost exclusively.

If there’s an actual issue left to discuss, it’s the debate over just how well Mize’s fastball will play in the major leagues. The heater is rated as plus by just about everyone, so this is still hair-splitting for the most part. But for some observers, seeing a college pitcher using a cutter to keep hitters off the fastball leaves a lingering concern as to whether the pitch is too straight, too often. These are the kind of details where a team has to rely on it’s data, and on experienced sets of eyes to evaluate the nuances of a pitcher’s delivery.

Mize doesn’t have a Justin Verlander caliber fastball, but it’s hard to knock a guy for having developed a cutter graded as a plus pitch by most sites, and an improved slider over the past year. Sitting 94-96 with precision, the fastball may not feature explosive late life, but there is some deception and two-plane life out of his high arm slot. More importantly, Mize already has the command to make all his offerings play up, and the development of both the cutter and slider over the past year speak to a dedicated young pitcher with some ability to make adjustments and groove them relatively quickly.

Still, when you’re projected to go 1-1, the intense scrutiny just comes with the territory, and Mize seems to understand this better than most. Get ready for a wild few weeks ahead. When the smoke and chatter clear, you’re still almost certainly going to see Mize wearing the Olde English D.

 

 

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Madrigal this weekend in 3 games vs. USC

3 for 12, BB, 4 RBI, 1 BB, 0 K, 4 SB

 

He has 3 games left vs UCLA next weekend before the CWS starts.

[Lillian]

I'm still convinced that picking Madrigal, with the #4 pick, is only justified if the Sox are confident that they can keep him at second base. That is where he is a potential Gold Glover. At SS, he no longer represents an elite defender, and that is one position where I prioritize defense, over offense. For those who talk of moving him to the hot corner, he simply does not profile as a third baseman. Therefore, unless the Sox think that Moncada can successfully be moved off the keystone spot, I prefer that they select someone else. Unfortunately, Yoan seems to be determined to play second, where he fancies himself as the second coming of his idol, Robinson Cano. 

[ChiSoxJon]

1 minute ago, Lillian said:

I'm still convinced that picking Madrigal, with the #4 pick, is only justified if the Sox are confident that they can keep him at second base. That is where he is a potential Gold Glover. At SS, he no longer represents an elite defender, and that is one position where I prioritize defense, over offense. For those who talk of moving him to the hot corner, he simply does not profile as a third baseman. Therefore, unless the Sox think that Moncada can successfully be moved off the keystone spot, I prefer that they select someone else. Unfortunately, Yoan seems to be determined to play second, where he fancies himself as the second coming of his idol, Robinson Cano. 

Don't think that's an issue given that Moncada is a developing phenom at the MLB level and Madrigal has yet to be drafted/2-3years away at the least

[Lillian]

53 minutes ago, ChiSoxJon said:

Don't think that's an issue given that Moncada is a developing phenom at the MLB level and Madrigal has yet to be drafted/2-3years away at the least

Moncada and Jimenez are viewed as part of the "core" for the approaching window of contention. Not thinking ahead 2, or 3 years, seems like folly, to me. If we were considering a high school player, and picking in a later round, that logic would be fine, as he would not be expected to arrive, for at least 5 years. However, one of Madrigal's positive attributes is that he is a near ready, college player, who could be fast tracked to the Big Leagues. 

Edited May 21, 2018 by Lillian

[caulfield12]

When’s the last time we couldn’t figure out a place for another position player because of TOO MUCH depth?

Probably when we had Fields coming off his 2007 and Crede coming back from injury (as well as Uribe)...and they tried to put Fields in LF.

[Lillian]

Caulfield, that is precisely my point. We shouldn't be looking for another position for our #4 pick. Madrigal is a second baseman. I don't want him moved to a position, for which he is ill-suited. Now, if you think that Moncada should be moved, that's another thing all together. I'll just say, good luck with that.

Edited May 21, 2018 by Lillian

[Dam8610]

You don't draft for need in the MLB draft.

[ChiSoxJon]

20 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

When’s the last time we couldn’t figure out a place for another position player because of TOO MUCH depth?

Probably when we had Fields coming off his 2007 and Crede coming back from injury (as well as Uribe)...and they tried to put Fields in LF.

What a time, why didn't Fields pan out again? Great rookie year, I believe there was some type of jam involving Uribe, Beckham, and Alexei as well later on

[Flash]

1 hour ago, Lillian said:

Moncada and Jimenez are viewed as part of the "core" for the approaching window of contention. Not thinking ahead 2, or 3 years, seems like folly, to me. If we were considering a high school player, and picking in a later round, that logic would be fine, as he would not be expected to arrive, for at least 5 years. However, one of Madrigal's positive attributes is that he is a near ready, college player, who could be fast tracked to the Big Leagues. 

couldn't agree more Lillian. I still think we should draft Madrigal and start him at SS. If he can't play there, he moves back to 2nd and Moncada to 3rd if that is what puts our best players on the field. We need this pick to contribute to the PO drive beginning next year.

[SoxAce]

40 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

You don't draft for need in the MLB draft.

Bingo. I'm still shocked people still don't get this. Who knows if this team might go for it down the line and can use a guy (which ever level in the org) as trade bait in the future. You take the BPA and figure out the rest later. 

[BamaDoc]

12 minutes ago, Flash said:

couldn't agree more Lillian. I still think we should draft Madrigal and start him at SS. If he can't play there, he moves back to 2nd and Moncada to 3rd if that is what puts our best players on the field. We need this pick to contribute to the PO drive beginning next year.

Expecting our pick this year to be contributing next year is a little far fetched.  That kind of rushing is what was done in the past.  Those expectations would virtually eliminate all high schoolers drastically hurting the ability to get the best talent.  I like you said PO drive next year.  I am an optimist and I can't put us in unless you consider .500ish contending.

[bmags]

1 hour ago, Dam8610 said:

You don't draft for need in the MLB draft.

Especially when, at an organizational level, up the middle infielders are a big weakness. There is little in the pipeline for help.

I get that this draft is weak on the prototype picks. No big athletic HS pitchers with great stuff, no super athletic hs short stops with power potential (that don't have horrendous hit tools).

But this is what the draft is. And I'll take my chances that a player with great makeup, athleticism and great baseball IQ in an atypical package can maximize that profile than reach for someone who looks the part and has to find the tools just mentioned.

Plus there should be really interesting guys for the second pick where we can go with very projectable, unpolished stuff.

But with Madrigal angst it seems like knocking the pick because of a hypothetical draft logic. But this is the draft pool they have. He makes the most sense, and I think people will love him once he's in the system.

[Lillian]

1 hour ago, Dam8610 said:

You don't draft for need in the MLB draft.

Asserting that Madrigal should not be selected, with the idea of moving him to another position, is not inconsistent with the valid principle of taking the best player available. If they want to select him fine, leave him at the position, for which he is best suited. If it turns out that the Sox have no place for another second baseman, when he is ready to contribute, trade him. If you don't want to trade a young player, whom you drafted at #4, then don't select him.

Many have talked about moving Moncada to third, or Anderson to CF, to accommodate Madrigal, when he's ready. Drafting for need may not be a good practice, but "needing" to mess with the core of a young team, in order to accommodate a draft choice, may not be such a good practice either.

Moreover, and to reiterate, there are no clear "best players available" in this draft, with the exception of Mize, and now that seems in question.

Edited May 21, 2018 by Lillian

[soxfan49]

3 hours ago, Lillian said:

Moncada and Jimenez are viewed as part of the "core" for the approaching window of contention. Not thinking ahead 2, or 3 years, seems like folly, to me. If we were considering a high school player, and picking in a later round, that logic would be fine, as he would not be expected to arrive, for at least 5 years. However, one of Madrigal's positive attributes is that he is a near ready, college player, who could be fast tracked to the Big Leagues. 

If Moncada is a 280/390/510 player + great defense and Madrigal is a 300/410/450 type player, I think you find a spot for both guys in your lineup and don't complain. Madrigal's reported instincts/baseball IQ strikes me as a guy that I believe could be a good who could play all over the field.

[DirtySox]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

He makes the most sense, and I think people will love him once he's in the system.

Fully agree with this. The I hate strikeouts, get dirty, Grindy McGrinderson fans would fall in love with Madrigal.

Edited May 21, 2018 by DirtySox

[bmags]

1 minute ago, DirtySox said:

Fully agree with this. The I hate strikeouts, get dirty, Grindy McGrinderson fans would fall in love with Madrigal.

I also would hope that, while I know we are trying to develop a specialty for positions, the sox used years like this to work on positional versatility for anderson and moncada the way they have for yolmer.